Ted Cruz blinks; five debates scheduled

A promising development for Bob.  Let's go to the best Tweets from #TXSEN yesterday, which trended nationally for awhile in the afternoon.

News: @TedCruz challenges @BetoORourke to five debates over the next three months, each on different topics https://t.co/gzNMPzBE02 #txsen

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) July 25, 2018

New: @tedcruz is challenging Dem @BetoORourke to five one-hour #txsen debates.

Each will be on a Friday night, focusing on a policy area:

🔘: Aug.31, Dallas
🔘: Sept. 14, McAllen
🔘: Sept. 21, SA
🔘: Oct. 5, Houston
🔘: Oct. 12, Lubbockhttps://t.co/C4IuKcYLNu via @toddgillman

— Forrest Milburn (@forrestmilburn) July 25, 2018

The paid politico POV (not unreasonable for once):

This is a sign that Ted Cruz's internal numbers are not headed in the right direction https://t.co/UMrxd1THMW

— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) July 25, 2018

Open this 7-count thread from Gadfly for a snark-laden rundown on the topics the two men will be talking about.

Well, if .@BetoORourke and .@TedCruz agree to five debates on these themes, here's what will play out 1/: https://t.co/9onrfWnhQU

— @realDonaldTrump 🌻 (@SocraticGadfly) July 25, 2018

And finally, the wagers are being offered:

Not at all. I’m telling you what the Cruz campaign thinks.

Let’s wager on the margin of #txsen to benefit @NavySEALfnd.

Over 6 I win. Under 6 you win. $500? https://t.co/5ewD0uJWFl

— Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) July 25, 2018

As Gadfly and I covered in yesterday's comments, we think the over/under for Cruz's margin of victory is closer to 56-44, so Mackowiak, perpetually the conservative MAGAt, wants slightly more than 53-47 to take half a grand from Demo consultant Joe Householder above.  No bet.

What this debate schedule does -- or should do -- is put pressure on Dan Patrick and Sid Miller to get off their high horses.  Don't expect anything like sunlight or fair play from Ken Paxton or anybody else down the ballot, however.   Should O'Rourke show out well and Cruz falter a bit, especially if our Cuban Canadian representative in the upper federal chamber holds to his 5-appearance commitment, and if the spin doesn't overtake the truth ... O'Rourke's rising tide lifts all Democratic boats.

Most importantly, it's not so much as August yet and everybody is paying attention.

Beto O'Rourke and Lizzie P. Fletcher

Here are the steps in every statewide race in Texas for the past 20+ years:

1. Shiny new Democrat declares candidacy, promises the moon, trashes incumbent Republican
2. Media churns out glowing praise, hope by the truckload
3. Early polls show Democrat within striking distance
4. Democrats get whipped into a frenzy, talk trash, make bold predictions about "Blue Wave"
5. Every Republican wins by double digits
6. Democratic officials claim moral victory
7. Democrats deny ever predicting their candidate would win
8. Media and Democrats blame the electorate for low turnout, inability to understand what's at stake, "voting against their own self-interest"
9. Repeat in 4 years

It looks like we are at step 4. Right on schedule!

We could probably add a 4.5 for 2018: "Democrats throw unprecedented wads of cash at the Great (Mostly) White Hopes".

I will not bury the lede to save the reading time of those who don't agree, much less respect, my opinion regarding the state of play for Democrats in Texas (and elsewhere) in the coming midterm elections.  The truth stings, sometimes as painfully as a Portuguese man o' war in the Gulf of Mexico.

I won't be able to vote for either of the two federal office standard-bearers for the Donks in November because they simply do not represent my values, and because they are far too interested in trying to win by seeking the votes of Trump-soured, moderate (sic) Republicans.

Beto O'Rourke is Third Way, lies about his PAC money (more here), whines about Ted Cruz not debating him when he refused to debate his own primary opponents, and can't get on board with a universal health care plan even though he claims to support such.

LPF is pretty much the same centrist stooge, except that she's gone a little further in the wrong direction, demonstrating antipathy to the working class.

Let me be even more candid with respect to Texas Democratic challengers running against incumbent Republicans: if I could vote for Dayna Steele, or Mike Seigel, or Adrienne Bell, Sri Preston Kulkarni, Linsey Fagan, Vanessa Adia, Jana Sanchez, or Julie Oliver,  I would do so in a heartbeat.  I could even vote for MJ Hegar and Gina Ortiz Jones (it would be a tough chew-and-swallow choking down their military/CIA histories, but I think I could manage it) .  Not Colin Allred, though.  Nor, for that matter, Democrats running in open seats like Joe Kopser and Todd Litton.

Even if I did vote for O'Rourke and Fletcher, they would not represent me.  They would believe that their strategy of running to the right succeeded, and their government service would reflect being beholden to the afore-mentioned centrist, corporate Democrats, and even moreso their friends just a bit further to starboard.

Bob O'Rourke, gifted a shopping center in El Paso's barrio for his birthday by his parents, proceeded while on city council to push out the poor people and gentrify the area, raising the value of his property accordingly.  That's how you make City Hall work for you, by Gawd.

LPF is practically James Cargas with a vagina.

I'll keep an open mind about them (in case they pull a few progressive rabbits out of their pussy hats) right up to the opening of early voting in October, but today I'm taking a hard pass.  Good luck to both nevertheless.  If their strategy works they won't be missing my vote anyway.

The Weekly Wrangle

The duopoly cognitive dissonance has been in full flower lately.  As Trump becomes more unhinged, as the Bernie Sanders/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing of the Democratic Party ascends, the Old Guard feels more threatened, gets more paranoid, and moves closer toward former (?) Republicans like James Comey.  (Wasn't Comey the guy who did that thing with the letter that cost Hillary Clinton the election?)

Here's the Texas Progressive Alliance's roundup of blog posts and news from the week previous.

David Collins strongly advises those suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome and Russophobia to avoid watering the tree of liberty with hyperbole.

Socratic Gadfly offers detailed thoughts on Robert Mueller's indictment of the GRU 12 and what it does and does not say.

Somervell County Salon collects a few interesting bits and pieces about the hypocritical servility of John Bolton.

As debate season for the 2016 elections begins to take shape, the Texas Tribune reports that Lupe Valdez has agreed to debate Greg Abbott -- just not on the date that Abbott said he would debate her.  (Abbott, like Rick Perry before him, prefers gubernatorial face-offs that compete with "Friday Night Lights" ... so that few Texans are paying attention.)  Progress Texas notes that Ted Cruz is ducking a debate with Beto O'Rourke in the most Cruz-ish way imaginable.

State Sen. Don Huffines got into a contentious Twitter back-and-forth with state Rep. Poncho Nevarez over the Texas voter/photo ID law and left us with the impression that the harshest, most punitive law of its kind in the US doesn't go far enough.  This is why some observers have concluded that Texas isn't just a non-voting state; it's actively an anti-voter state.

As the week-long trial on the Texas fetal burial law wrapped up, the federal judge who will rule in the case gave indications of three things he will decide upon.

In news of the most ironic, Texas Department of Health employees will be working in a new environment after the building in which they have been located was found to have intolerable amounts of mold.

The Texas Observer reports that the Trump administration is unlawfully mistreating immigrant children at every stage of its detention system, according to new court filings.  Which is a vast understatement of the abuse they are suffering.

Seven Texas-based chambers of commerce, two pro-business consortiums and four prominent companies, including Southwest Airlines, filed a court brief asking a federal judge in Houston to reject Attorney General Ken Paxton's argument that the DACA program be ended.  They allege that damage to the Texas economy would amount to tens of thousands of jobs -- and hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenues -- that would be lost if DREAMers' work status were revoked.

In the wake of the murders committed in Houston by a parolee who had removed his ankle monitor, Grits for Breakfast (and HPD chief Art Acevedo) asked the questions that challenged the conventional wisdom: are ankle monitors making anybody safer?

The discovery of human remains in Fort Bend County -- likely slaves and prisoners who worked on the sugar plantations there in the late 1800s -- made national and international news ... but was not news to one local activist.

Neil at We Must Act Right Now posted about confrontation and civility in our politics and society.

Harry Hamid sees something missing from her writing.

And The Rag Blog -- and Threadgill's World Headquarters in Austin -- invites you to Thorne Dreyer's birthday party on August 1.

Sunday Funnies