Friday, July 14, 2017

Friday Scattershots: Beto's 2, Abbott's 34, and the special session

Normally I leave the fundraising reporting to those that groove on it.  But occasionally it's newsworthy, and this is one of those times.


-- Beto O'Rourke out-raised Ted Cruz, and he did it without PAC money, or big donors, or out-of-staters, like that Blue Dog loser Jon Ossoff.  He merits kudos from The Intercept for his Bernie Sanders-style fundraising, also his (finally) unqualified support for single payer.  Let's pick out just a little of Ryan Grim's piece for consideration.

He is far from the centrist mold that power brokers in Washington might recruit to run for Senate in Texas, but then again, power brokers in Washington don’t spend much time thinking about running for Senate in Texas.

But the way O’Rourke is raising money changes the game. The El Paso congressman does not have much in the way of a national fundraising network, has refused corporate PAC money, and is known among his colleagues to be a less-than-enthusiastic fundraiser. That’s the kind of lawmaker who often had little future in Washington — but exactly the kind many grassroots Democrats would like to see rise. The type of person who is good at spending hours a day with doctors, bankers, lawyers and other professionals who can write four and five-figure checks is a) probably not hard-wired to be a conviction politician and b) vulnerable to have their politics diluted just by virtue of the conversations they’re having day in and day out.

Former Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Va., said that spending so much time on the phone fundraising winds up creating “an enormous anti-populist element, particularly for Dems, who are most likely to be hearing from people who can write at least a $500 check. They may be liberal, quite liberal in fact, but are also more likely to consider the deficit a bigger crisis than the lack of jobs.”

On the other end of the spectrum, Greg Abbott announces for re-election today with gobs of money in the bank and no challengers.

His lips are ready to smooch the backsides of the big check-writers.

Despite criticism, Abbott remains a popular figure among Republicans statewide and has a campaign kitty that will be daunting to any potential challengers. He had more than $34 million in his campaign account in January, and that number is expected to grow when new fundraising totals are announced shortly.

Let's just go ahead and acknowledge that we're not going to be rid of Helen Wheels until he decides to run for president.  And since he can do so and remain governor after losing a White House bid, perhaps not even then.

If the special session does not go his way, will it damage him politically?  I think the opposite, candidly.  First, note that Texas is already losing commerce to other states for the first time in over a decade (that's at least two oil slumps ago, not counting the current one) and if he and Dan Patrick ram through the bathroom bill, that will hurt the state's reputation for a welcoming bidness climate even further.  But it is the capitalist titans inside and outside Texas that are going to have to make him pay the price for his governmental intrusion and over-reach into our private lives: in corporate or branch relocations reconsidered, in conventions and events like the Final Four canceled, and in their reduced, or embargoed, or eliminated campaign contributions to him.

To the GOP base, though, he'll be martyred on a toilet in a transgender-friendly restroom.  He'll have fended off the primary challenge from Lite Guv Goeb, and he'll have the Christian Soldiers marching onward as to war for him.  He wins by losing (if he loses, and Joe Straus has to be feeling pretty lonely these days).

-- Did the Russians try to hack Harris County's elections website?  Stan Stanart's IT guy isn't saying yes, isn't saying no.

Despite widespread alarm over the breadth of Russian cyber attacks on state and local election systems last year, including revelations of Dallas County being targeted, Harris County officials are refusing to say whether hackers similarly took aim at the nation's third-largest county.

Releasing information on whether Harris County election systems saw attacks from Russian hackers would threaten the county's cyber security by emboldening hackers to further target local systems, county officials said this week.

The county's argument was dismissed by experts, who said the secrecy is unnecessary, and could actually downplay the seriousness of the threat and the resources needed to combat it.

So ... 'don't ask, don't tell, maybe it will go away' seems to be the strategy.  This strikes me as pluperfect Stanart.  Did you know that a number of voters greater than one out of every four say they are considering not voting because of fears of the elections being hacked?

More than a quarter of recently polled registered voters say they will consider not casting ballots in future U.S. elections because of hacking concerns, with 27 percent saying they may stay home from the polls when the 2018 midterm elections roll around.

That number could mark a challenge during the midterms, with the possibility of as many as 58.8 million of the more than 200 million eligible voters choosing to stay home, according cybersecurity firm Carbon Black. The June survey of 5,000 people found a lower level of confidence in the overall voting process compared to data collected prior to most recent presidential election.

This is what Democratic paranoia hath wrought.  So in a perverse way, maybe Stanart's office is on to something.  We certainly don't need any more vote suppression efforts, especially not those borne out of Clinton Democrats' fever dreams.

There has been a lot of Moscow-on-the-Potomac to digest this week.  Maha has a good summary, including that McClatchy piece that Gadfly has already skewered.  But her lede is slightly buried.

To those who are certain the Trump/Russians stole the 2016 election, I would like to point out that if the Clinton campaign hadn’t been so brain dead, there would have been fewer vulnerabilities to exploit. Ultimately, it was Clinton’s election to lose, and she lost it. She might very well have lost it had the Russians done nothing at all. Historians will probably be arguing the point for the rest of eternity. But this is about something bigger than who won the election.

Yes it is.  More on that later.

-- I also have some thoughts coming on the dispute between Caitlyn Johnstone and Yoav Litvin (and some who have responded ahead of me) over the potential direction and alliances of the Green Party, specifically David Cobb's role in said, in the middle of it all.  BTW, the Greens' national meeting is happening right now in Newark, NJ.

Thursday, July 13, 2017

So how about those Russians?

Toldja it would break open, and I toldja it wouldn't be about hacking the election.

Fake news alert: Neither Reagan nor Nixon are actually in Heaven.

Collusion is a pretty huge deal, as most of us know, but not if you're Sean Hannity or the millions of MAGAs who refuse to accept the truth being told elsewhere on teevee.  But the White House knew it was time for an intervention, so they called in the God Squad.


Evangelical leaders laid hands and prayed over President Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, and discussed several policy issues, the Washington Post reports.

Pastors at the meeting told The Post that the group discussed issues such as religious freedom, judicial nominees, criminal justice reform and the Affordable Care Act. Vice President Pence and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, were also present at the prayer gathering.

The group included megachurch pastors Paula White of Florida and Mark Burns of South Carolina, former Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and three Southern Baptist pastors.

Presumably the laying of hands did not involve former Rep. Bachmann's nether region.  One question: if the pastors discuss judicial candidates with the president, then has the wall between church and state been torn down (to be shipped to the southern border)?

The laying of hands is a symbol of God's authority, practiced in many evangelical denominations. Jesus and his apostles used the sign throughout the New Testament to bless and heal people and to commission messengers of the gospel.

Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne posted photos of the meeting on Facebook, and said he prayed for "supernatural wisdom, guidance and protection" for Trump. "Wow — we are going to see another great spiritual awakening," he said in the post.

Trump, who enjoyed wide support from evangelicals in the presidential election, is a self-described Presbyterian but does not attend church regularly. In January of 2016, Trump drew criticism from many evangelical Christians for his pronunciation of the Biblical book 2 Corinthians as "two Corinthians" instead of "Second Corinthians".

Trump in fact received more than 4 out of every 5 votes from white evangelical Christians, despite the pussy-grabbing and the Two Corinthians and all the rest of his failings as a Christian.  His religion, as practiced on Sundays, is the Church of Golf.  But his God is money.

This is going so bad so fast that Paddy Power has changed its odds of impeachment.

PaddyPower, an Ireland-based betting site, has seen more users placing bets on President Trump being impeached before the end of his first term, bringing the site's total odds of the President being shuffled out of the White House by 2021 up to 60%—the highest it’s ever been, according to company spokesperson Lee Price.

"[President Donald Trump] had gone quiet over the last month, and we were starting to wonder if he might have ridden out the initial controversies – but he’s back with a bang today,” Price wrote in an email to Fortune Wednesday.

Not only are PaddyPower bettors increasingly putting their money on Trump being impeached before his first term is over, but they are also betting on him being impeached as soon as this year, bringing those odds up to 33.3%. That's despite the fact that impeachment proceedings are usually lengthy.
"Everyone is betting on the 'yes' side of impeachment," Price said, saying hundreds of thousands of pounds had been placed on that bet.

This is your clue that the Euros gambling on this outcome have no idea what they are doing.  Use that conclusion as you like; I'm not giving any financial advice here. 

That said, PaddyPower is hardly a foolproof predictor. Another betting website called Predict-It sees just a 9% chance of Trump being impeached this year, down from the 30% chance it saw after then-FBI Director James Comey was fired in May.

So the euphoria of a potential windfall may be short lived for those PaddyPower bettors, most of whom are unlikely to be Americans. Although it's not just betting sites weighing Trump’s odds of impeachment since news of Trump Jr.'s Russia meeting.

"We believe the risk of impeachment proceedings is now higher than before," CitiBank’s Tina Fordham wrote in a note on Wednesday, though she added that impeachment is still unlikely. "It would be highly unusual and indeed likely politically costly to the party's electoral prospects to pursue impeachment proceedings against a president of their own party, particularly with Midterm elections a little over a year away."

Meanwhile, California Democrat Rep. Brad Sherman placed a different kind of bet when he filed an article of impeachment against President Trump Wednesday.

Trump won't be impeached by a Republican Congress.  Trump may be forced to resign at some point sooner than later, and the GOP would just be thrilled with Mike Pence.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

I cannot BELIEVE I have to protest this Net Neutrality shit again


Whatever issues you are interested in depend on keeping the Internet free and open. ~ Lo

From Battle For The Net

July 12th: Internet-Wide Day Of Action To Save Net Neutrality

WHAT IS NET NEUTRALITY?

Net neutrality is the basic principle that protects our free speech on the Internet. “Title II” of the Communications Act is what provides the legal foundation for net neutrality and prevents Internet Service Providers like Comcast, Verizon, and AT&T from slowing down, blocking, or charging websites an additional fee to reach their audience (which they would then be forced to pass along to consumers).

WHY IS NET NEUTRALITY IMPORTANT?

The Internet has thrived precisely because of net neutrality. It’s what makes it so vibrant and innovative—a place for creativity, free expression, and exchange of ideas. Without net neutrality, the Internet will become more like cable TV, where the content you see is what your provider puts in front of you.



FCC Chairman and former Verizon lawyer Ajit Pai has a plan to destroy net neutrality and give big companies like Comcast, Verizon, and AT&T immense control over what we can see and do on the Internet, with the power to slow down or block websites, and charge others extra to reach an audience.

If we lose net neutrality, we could soon face an Internet where some of your favorite websites are forced into a slow lane online, while deep-pocketed companies who can afford expensive new “prioritization” fees have special fast lane access to Internet users – tilting the playing field in their favor.

On July 12th, the Internet will come together to stop them.  Blogs, websites, Internet users, and online communities will sound the alarm about the FCC’s attack on net neutrality.