Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Why did Hillary lose to Trump? Vol. III Final


Yesterday I blogged the post-election to-do list offered by David Swanson, but left off the "If Trump won" part.  Because, like everybody else, I simply didn't see it coming.  Oh, I made it plain a couple of times that if she did lose, it would be her own fault, just as it was Al Gore's in 2000, but I honestly didn't think it would happen.  Even though my 303 EC vote call was more conservative than many others -- I was still seeing people predicting 352 on Monday, after all -- the possibility of Her snatching defeat from the jaws of victory was simply too remote for me to give credence to.

But as the reality unfolded last night, I found myself less and less surprised, and with a lack of empathy to its political ramifications (not the social ones, mind you).

Some can say that's my white privilege.  I will say that it feels like my conscious uncoupling from the Democrats as the year passed has left me with a profound indifference to their plight.

Yes: Obamacare will be repealed, voting rights will be curtailed, a woman's right to choose will be eliminated as the Supreme Court veers hard right for another twenty years, Social Security will be privatized, cops will go on randomly killing people of color, the planet's ice will keep melting and its deserts will grow and its storms become more powerful.  The rich will get richer; the poor poorer.  And if I were advising Hillary this morning, I would recommend -- like Steve M -- she take a nice long vacation in a country without an extradition treaty with the United States, because I think Trump made a campaign promise that he has to at least try to keep about locking her up.

I care about the people who will be damaged by Trump's policies.  But I do not care about the Democrats who pretended to care about them, and went about the lousy business of coronating Hillary by any means necessary.  They earned their failure, and their reward is just.

Anyway, back to life.  Back to reality.

IF TRUMP WON

1. Build a movement that includes all the Democrats eager to get active.

2. Build a movement that includes a focus on rights of refugees / immigrants

3. Build a movement that resists racist violence at home.

4. Demand a swift end to NAFTA and NATO.

5. Oppose all the horrible nominations for high offices.

6. Break up the media cartel.

7. If win came through voter suppression, seek prosecution immediately.

8. If win came through fraudulent counting, launch massive campaign to compel Democrats to admit it and protest it.

Notice how little it differs from Clinton's list.

Harris County, Texas is shining, with its Democrats having won most of their races and looking nice and bluish-purple.  City council races will gear up very shortly; the HGLBT Caucus will soon start questioning candidates and making endorsements before spring arrives.  It'll be another banner year for the neoliberals.  Speaking of them, you should read this from Thomas Frank at The Guardian about who's at fault for last night's debacle.  Here's a taste, and don't forget to substitute the word 'neoliberal' for 'liberal'.

(Trump) has run one of the lousiest presidential campaigns ever. In saying so I am not referring to his much-criticized business practices or his vulgar remarks about women. I mean this in a purely technical sense: this man fractured his own party. His convention was a fiasco. He had no ground game to speak of. The list of celebrities and pundits and surrogates taking his side on the campaign trail was extremely short. He needlessly offended countless groups of people: women, Hispanics, Muslims, disabled people, mothers of crying babies, the Bush family, and George Will-style conservatives, among others. He even lost Glenn Beck, for pete’s sake.

And now he is going to be president of the United States. The woman we were constantly assured was the best-qualified candidate of all time has lost to the least qualified candidate of all time. Everyone who was anyone rallied around her, and it didn’t make any difference. The man too incompetent to insult is now going to sit in the Oval Office, whence he will hand down his beauty-contest verdicts on the grandees and sages of the old order.

Maybe there is a bright side to a Trump victory. After all, there was a reason that tens of millions of good people voted for him yesterday, and maybe he will live up to their high regard for him. He has pledged to “drain the swamp” of DC corruption, and maybe he will sincerely tackle that task. He has promised to renegotiate NAFTA, and maybe that, too, will finally come to pass. Maybe he’ll win so much for us (as he once predicted in a campaign speech) that we’ll get sick of winning.

But let’s not deceive ourselves. We aren’t going to win anything. What happened on Tuesday is a disaster, both for liberalism and for the world. As President Trump goes about settling scores with his former rivals, picking fights with other countries, and unleashing his special deportation police on this group and that, we will all soon have cause to regret his ascension to the presidential throne.
What we need to focus on now is the obvious question: what the hell went wrong? What species of cluelessness guided our Democratic leaders as they went about losing what they told us was the most important election of our lifetimes?

Start at the top. Why, oh why, did it have to be Hillary Clinton? Yes, she has an impressive resume; yes, she worked hard on the campaign trail. But she was exactly the wrong candidate for this angry, populist moment. An insider when the country was screaming for an outsider. A technocrat who offered fine-tuning when the country wanted to take a sledgehammer to the machine.

She was the Democratic candidate because it was her turn and because a Clinton victory would have moved every Democrat in Washington up a notch. Whether or not she would win was always a secondary matter, something that was taken for granted. Had winning been the party’s number one concern, several more suitable candidates were ready to go. There was Joe Biden, with his powerful plainspoken style, and there was Bernie Sanders, an inspiring and largely scandal-free figure. Each of them would probably have beaten Trump, but neither of them would really have served the interests of the party insiders.

And so Democratic leaders made Hillary their candidate even though they knew about her closeness to the banks, her fondness for war, and her unique vulnerability on the trade issue – each of which Trump exploited to the fullest. They chose Hillary even though they knew about her private email server. They chose her even though some of those who studied the Clinton Foundation suspected it was a sketchy proposition.

To try to put over such a nominee while screaming that the Republican is a rightwing monster is to court disbelief. If Trump is a fascist, as liberals often said, Democrats should have put in their strongest player to stop him, not a party hack they’d chosen because it was her turn. Choosing her indicated either that Democrats didn’t mean what they said about Trump’s riskiness, that their opportunism took precedence over the country’s well-being, or maybe both.

Maybe all those #BernieorBust people meant it.  Maybe that #DemExit thing in the wake of the convention was, you know, a thing.

Blame the media, blame the polling, blame James Comey (who is surely not going to be fired now), blame the Greens and the Libertarians for taking a combined four percent of the total everywhere I looked.  Just don't blame yourselves.  Or Hillary.  Because that might compel some self-reflection.

Clinton’s supporters among the media didn’t help much, either. It always struck me as strange that such an unpopular candidate enjoyed such robust and unanimous endorsements from the editorial and opinion pages of the nation’s papers, but it was the quality of the media’s enthusiasm that really harmed her. With the same arguments repeated over and over, two or three times a day, with nuance and contrary views all deleted, the act of opening the newspaper started to feel like tuning in to a Cold War propaganda station. Here’s what it consisted of:
  • Hillary was virtually without flaws. She was a peerless leader clad in saintly white, a super-lawyer, a caring benefactor of women and children, a warrior for social justice.

Turns out it was the economy, stupid.  Again.  Specifically it was all those Rust Belt hardhats who bought into Trump's line of blaming job losses on free trade.  The polling somehow missed it.  Maybe those guys don't have landlines any more after being unemployed for so long.

Put this question in slightly more general terms and you are confronting the single great mystery of 2016. The American white-collar class just spent the year rallying around a super-competent professional (who really wasn’t all that competent) and either insulting or silencing everyone who didn’t accept their assessment. And then they lost. Maybe it’s time to consider whether there’s something about shrill self-righteousness, shouted from a position of high social status, that turns people away.

The even larger problem is that there is a kind of chronic complacency that has been rotting American liberalism for years, a hubris that tells Democrats they need do nothing different, they need deliver nothing really to anyone – except their friends on the Google jet and those nice people at Goldman. The rest of us are treated as though we have nowhere else to go and no role to play except to vote enthusiastically on the grounds that these Democrats are the “last thing standing” between us and the end of the world. It is a liberalism of the rich, it has failed the middle class, and now it has failed on its own terms of electability.

Clinton Democrats failed to fucking get it, every day of the year and much of last year, and when I finally bailed on them it was for good.  They're still curled up in a fetal position, hung over emotionally if not from the drowning of their sorrows.  There will be much reckoning, some recriminations, probably no atonement.  A few are, shockingly, presumptuous enough to say they knew it would happen all along.

Among my blogging brethren, Neil and Egberto were so motivated by their fear and hatred, respectively, of Trump to abandon the progressive cause after Bernie Sanders quit on it, too, and pushed all in on Hillary.  Fear is a loser's motivation; it almost always leaves you holding your little sack of nightmares even after you've dodged its worst blow.  I can't feel sorry for people who are controlled by the monsters under their bed.  Hate is even worse because it makes you no better than those who supported Trump for their abhorrence of Clinton.  Kuff is stunned speechless, Campos stunned but unfortunately not speechless, and Dos -- despite having posted more about Tejano music than politics over the last six months -- asserts, on the morning after, that he saw most of it coming.  And then congratulates former clients on their victories.  And their defeats.  (Folks, that's called hackery, and I'm forced to avoid it in the future.)

Most of the Texas so-called Progressive Alliance gassed on this election from the get-go, but fellow member and non-Democrat Gadfly nailed it.  Click that link and take note of the embedded Tweet, which shows that more Democrats voted for Trump than Republicans did for Hillary.  There goes your blame game out the window, neoliberals.  If you're not looking for your pain/anxiety meds yet, try on Ted Rall.

It'd be called tough love if I still loved you, Democrats.  But you fucked that up too.

Shock and awe

This egg on my face won't seem to come off.  But this isn't about me.


Yeah, the polls were wayyyy wrong and the election really was rigged by the outrage of white people living in the exurbs and rural parts of the country -- but especially in the Rust Belt, Great Lakes states -- that went unmeasured.  Then again, if you're at an Adele concert celebrating your 69th birthday in Miami on October 26 instead of campaigning in Flint, or Green Bay, or Allentown -- you might have some recriminations to take ownership of.

While the outcomes in Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire and Arizona are still being determined, Trump secured at least 279 electoral votes — smashing through Hillary Clinton’s blue wall in the midwest by taking Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as winning Florida, North Carolina and Ohio — to win his long-shot bid for the presidency.


This election saw the two lead candidates fail to resonate with many young voters. Based on the CNN exit poll, 9 percent of voters ages 18-29 went for third parties.

Update (with some revisions): The kids own the future we leave them, and they're inheriting a terrible mess.  And they don't seem to think  that Democrats or Republicans are the best way to get it cleaned up.  Stop and think for a moment what the results might look like -- and what we might be talking about today -- had every age demographic cast 9 percent of its vote for a third party.

In contrast, Texas Democrats had a raft of good news, especially in Harris County, where their voters swept out the Republican trash (and, some of those judges, I assume, were good people).  But the Reds continue to have home court advantage statewide.

Trump carried Texas by a 52-43 margin, stunning when you consider all that hee-haw about Her winning it a few weeks ago (what was it that happened less than two weeks ago, again?) and Republicans held onto all the bench seats on the Supreme Court and the Court of Criminal Appeals, and also the SBOE.  Straight-ticket voting remains a strong, stupid, lazy way to go in this state.

The regional Appeals Court Democrats came up just short, by less than a 5-point margin generally in each race.  The outlying suburban and rural counties overcame the urban blue strength, Harris' in the case of the First and the Fourteenth.  Leticia Hinojosa in the 13th and Irene Rios in the 4th were the exceptions to this rule.  And in the only real contest in Texas for a congressional seat, Pete Gallego couldn't beat Will Hurd.

The Democrats locally benefited from the one-button selection, with Clinton sweeping Harris and Trump by twelve points, 54-42, and the downballot slate of county executives and judicials prevailing.  Kim Ogg is the new DA, Ed Gonzalez the new sheriff, and Ann Harris Bennett -- the only countywide Democrat trailing after the early vote was counted -- pulled ahead late in the evening.  Dan Patrick's son lost his race, the 177th District Court.

And the HISD recapture initiative -- explained best here for novices -- was knocked down hard.

Voter participation on Election Day in Harris County did not meet high expectations, but followed the long pattern of being bluer than the EV.  Texas will still be last or next-to-last in turnout compared with the other 49 states.

So ... what of a President Trump?  That's next.

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Post-election to-do list

Mad props to David Swanson at Washington's Blog for this.

1. Stop the efforts to ram through the Trans-Pacific Partnership during the lame duck.
2. Stop the efforts to ram through a supplemental war spending bill for assorted future wars during the lame duck.
3. Stop the efforts to repeal the right to sue Saudi Arabia and other nations for their wars and lesser acts of terrorism during the lame duck.
4. Build a nonpartisan movement to effect real change.
5. Ban bribery, fund elections, make registration automatic, make election day a holiday, end gerrymandering, eliminate the electoral college, create the right to vote, create public hand counting of paper ballots at every polling place, create ranked choice voting.
6. End the wars, end the weapons dealing, close the bases, and shift military spending to human and environmental needs.
7. Tax billionaires.
8. End mass incarceration and the death penalty and the militarization of police.
9. Create single-payer healthcare.
10. Support the rule of law, diplomacy, and aid.
11. Invest in serious effort to avoid climate catastrophe.
12. Apologize to the world for having elected President Clinton or Trump.

That's a heavy lift.  I might settle low, for Hillbots being able to stop Her from starting a war with Iran, or Russia, or North Korea or China.  Maybe they could convince Her to hold it to seven, the number of countries Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama has bombed.  Since people like me apparently don't have the "moral currency" to demand any change from Her.


Once again, your progressive independent voting card for 2016.  It contains mostly Greens at the top of the Harris County ballot for statewide and regional offices and Democrats at the county and state legislative level.  It contains no Republicans or Libertarians.  Many Democrats and independent progressives chose to vote for a Libertarian for the Texas Railroad Commission, but Gadfly shot that guy down in flames.

If Trump wins ... never mind.  He won't.

After Clinton declares victory tonight:

1. Build a movement that includes all the Republicans and Libertarians eager to get active.
2. Build a movement that includes a focus on rights of refugees / immigrants
3. Build a movement that resists racist violence directed at nations abroad.
4. Demand serious action on climate change.
5. Oppose all the horrible nominations for high offices.
6. Break up the media cartel.
7. If win came through fraudulent counting, support Trump’s noisy denunciation, and if it did not, then reject Trump’s noisy denunciation.

If Jill Stein had been able to win:

1. Support the independent media that made this possible.
2. Support all the wonderful nominees for higher office.
3. Help people in other countries turn their disastrous political systems around too.
4. Volunteer for public service.

And remember: rehearsals start tomorrow morning for Houston's municipal elections in 2017, the midterm and Texas elections in 2018, and ...

Monday, November 07, 2016

Electoral College prediction: Clinton 303, Trump 233

As conservative as I can get it to be.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Note again that in this forecast, as with last Wednesday's, the Buckeyes belong to Trump.  Also North Carolina and New Hampshire.  Further, I don't think the Beehive State winds up going for Evan McMullin.  Florida and Nevada don't seem all that battleground-ey to me any longer, but if Trump won them and everything else I've given him here, the Electoral College would be tied, 268 apiece, and the House of Representatives could very well elect McMullin president on a Grand Bargain, and the Senate would/could pick Tim Kaine as VP.  This very narrow (and slightly bizarre) path to a still-not-Trump presidency was one of the things motivating Nate Silver and Huffington Post DC bureau chief Ryan Grim having a geek fight on Twitter over the weekend.  More on that from Vox.

So let's see what I get right or wrong tomorrow evening.

Update: My call in NH has the greatest chance of being off, as the very latest of numbers suggest it might be safe for Clinton.  If that's the case, then Gadfly and I are only one electoral vote (in Nebraska or Maine) apart, at 307-229.

Larry Sabato has a 322-216 victory for Clinton and a 50-50 Senate.

My states to watch tomorrow evening are New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida.  If they all go blue, you can start celebrating early.  Like Chuck, I'd like to see some gains in the Texas House, a clean sweep at the Harris County courthouse, and Pete Gallego taking his Congressional seat back (with some indication that the Latin@ vote that carries him this year can help hold it in two years.  In other words a fat margin, something like 55-45 or greater).

I'll also look for that 5% nationally and statewide for Jill Stein and the Green Party, but my hopes have been somewhat dimmed, with all of the vigorous and hostile pushback I've seen from Democrats all year but particularly in these last few weeks.  I am certain I will have more to say about that later in the week, but I'll wait for the numbers to come in.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is happy this election is over as it brings you this last blog post roundup before Election Day.


Off the Kuff offers a modicum of sympathy to Republican women for the plague of Sid Miller.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos shares her personal observations and polling data from a class she is taking to that shows Hillary Clinton carrying Houston and Harris County.

Switching gears away from politics, Socratic Gadfly offers up his 2016-17 NBA preview.  (Sorry, Mavs fans.)

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants everyone to know just how much Texas Republicans have abused workers, worker rights and their safety.

Neil at All People Have Value reminded folks that nasty Sid Miller was a big part of the forced sonogram law in Texas that is state-mandated rape. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

Control of the US Senate in 2017 looks to be a tighter race than the one for the White House, says PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

A Lewisville Texan-Journal reporter was arrested in North Dakota while covering the #NoDAPL protests, making the issue hit close to home.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston says you should wait until some election contests are decided -- win for your your side or no -- before you start drinking heavily on Tuesday night.

And Texas Vox points out that Thursday, November 10 -- not Election Day -- is decision day for the Texas Railroad Commission.

=======================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

FPH introduces us to Kelcy Warren, the man behind the DAPL and his role in this week's Texas Parks and Wildlife Commission hearing.

CultureMap Houston was at the Texas Book Festival in Austin weekend before last.

Amy McCarthy recaps the highlights of Anthony Bourdain's visit to Houston.

Kyrie O'Connor reminds us that "Take Me Out To The Ballgame" is at heart a feminist anthem.

Eva Ruth Moravec took the eight-hour DPS course on verbal de-escalation.

Susan Nold asserts that voting is not "rigged", it's power.

Jacquielynn Floyd calls Sid Miller's latest tweet abomination a "breaking point".

The Texas Election Law Blog gives credit where it is due on tamping down fear about "election rigging".

Somervell County Salon asks if you believe in open government.

Ashton Woods at Strength in Numbers explains intersectionality and the problematic 'white gaze' as it relates to black feminism.

The Rag Blog marked the night of the dead and the day of the living.

DBC Green Blog reminded Democrats and Republicans that voting a straight ticket is still stupid and lazy.

And Pages of Victory explained (via Viggo Mortensen) why he voted for Jill Stein, and also why he voted for Kim Ogg for Harris County District Attorney.