New mayoral poll same as the old one; HERO is winning

The poll finds Adrian Garcia and Sylvester Turner tied for the lead, with a second tier of closely-clustered candidates, including Chris Bell, Bill King and Stephen Costello. Digging deeper into the numbers yields more insight about those candidates with stronger name identification and favorable ratings, along with those candidates whom the voter would even consider supporting. Complete polling results may be found at www.har.com/poll.

Specifically, the Houston Association of Realtors commissioned a DC firm named American Strategies for this poll conducted over three days in the fourth week of September.  It found Turner and Garcia tied with 19%, then Bell and King at 10%, then Costello at 9%, and then Ben Hall with 6%, Marty McVey 1%, and the rest at statistically nothing.  "Undecided" actually won with 25%.  In late June, it was Turner 16, Garcia 12, Bell 8, Hall and King 3, Costello 2, and poor McVey stuck at 1%.  So everybody except McVey has moved a few undecideds into their column (that figure was 53% in the old survey).  Charles has your deep dive; I'll add these impressions.

-- The Republicans in the race strengthened the most over the summer, but still don't appear to be a threat for the runoff.  That is, if you don't consider Adrian Garcia a Republican, which I do.  He is certainly the most conservative Democrat running, and he has significant conservative financial backing.  Most importantly, he's not being scuffed by his terrible record as Harris County sheriff.  Of all the data here, that's the point I most disbelieve.  But hey, if I'm wrong and his incompetence doesn't catch up to him by Election Night, I'll own it.

-- Correspondingly, if it turns out to be Turner and Garcia in the runoff, that should be a pretty easy choice for us lefties in December.  I'm still going to vote for the most progressive candidate in the general, and that's Bell.

-- Undecideds appear to be mostly white conservative women.  Who gets the most help if and when they do decide -- King or Costello?  I suppose the teevee ads they run will get refocused (fewer football and baseball games and more Fox and Friends).

-- HERO stands at 52% in favor.  That is, in a word, awesome.  The haters muster just 37%, and only 10% are undecided.  That lede is essentially buried in both the HAR press release and the Chronicle article, and the newspaper, in its otherwise-tired fundraising analysis, notes that HERO supporters have doubled the money of Hotze and ilk.  More and better on this topic, as usual, from Kuff.

Grand Old Professor Mark Jones is always available to piss on the parade.

... Rice University political scientist Mark Jones cautioned that the poll does not account for non-traditional city voters who may show up at the polls this year to vote on the ordinance, known as HERO.

It also likely under-represents support for Turner, Hall and potentially Garcia, Jones said, as it surveyed lower percentages of African American and Hispanic voters than are expected to turn out in November, given that there are two black candidates and one Hispanic candidate in the top-tier.

Sixty two percent of respondents identified as white, 20 percent as black, 10 percent as Hispanic and 2 percent as Asian.

"This survey would appear to be underestimating African American turnout by at least 10 percent and perhaps a little more," Jones said.

"If there are people who are being driven to turnout by the HERO ordinance or by Adrian Garcia's mobilization of the Hispanic community, they would not be represented," he added.

I cannot wait to see if this conservative jackass is right or wrong.

Updates: Via Mike McGruff, the top seven mayoral candidates will debate on teevee on Friday, October 16 -- that's the weekend before early voting begins the following Monday --  to be telecast by KPRC and Telemundo.  That debate is also sponsored by the League of Women Voters and Houston Baptist University's law school.  Get tickets to the event or live-streaming info and more at the link.

And a second mayoral poll came out today, sponsored by the conservative Houston Realty Business Coalition (they've endorsed Bill King) and it shows...

• Turner with 24%
• King with 18 (LOL)
• Garcia with 14
• Bell with 11
• Costello and Hall with 8
• three percent unsure, four percent someone else.

And as you might have guessed, it also thinks HERO is losing, 31-40 with 13% undecided and 16% declining to answer.

"We're still not sure what the electorate will look like, so polling the electorate has been a little dicey," University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus said.

[...]

Rottinghaus said HRBC's poll likely over-represents younger and Republican voters, while under-representing African-Americans. "That's probably why you see King doing better in this poll, because Republicans tend to be more heavily represented."

In other words, it's garbage.

Clinton comes out against the TPP and against Glass-Steagall

Somewhat equivocal, but we expected that.

"As of today, I am not in favor of what I have learned about (the Pacific Rim trade pact). I don’t believe it’s going to meet the high bar I have set."

We'll get to Val's bar in a minute.

Hillary Clinton says she doesn’t support reinstating a Depression-era banking law that separated commercial and investment banks because her forthcoming proposal for U.S. financial reform is “more comprehensive.”

Two items, same note: 'I can do better'.  Let's see about that.  First, on the trade bill she formerly supported...

Clinton explained her skepticism by mentioning two of the most common objections to the deal among left-leaning critics: that it's too favorable to pharmaceutical companies, and that it doesn't include language prohibiting other countries from manipulating their currencies to gain a trade advantage.

Thanks, Bernie!

The lack of currency manipulation language is a key concern of the labor movement, whose support could be crucial in next year's Democratic primary elections. Meanwhile, public health groups have raised concerns about language in the TPP that could raise the cost of medicines worldwide.

Obama faces a tough vote on the trade deal next year, and Clinton's comments won't help. They will give political cover to wavering congressional Democrats who want to help Obama but are also feeling grassroots pressure from labor unions and other liberal groups.

Clinton's comments also represent something of a flip-flop. During her time as Obama's secretary of state, from 2009 to 2013, Clinton repeatedly promoted the trade deal. While the final text is different from versions being considered when she was in office, neither of the concerns she's raising today — about benefits to pharmaceutical companies and the lack of language on currency manipulation — have changed since then.

More from HuffPo, and the following from the BBC.

(Sanders) was likely to bring the topic up during the debate and use it against the former Secretary of State, who once called the agreement the "gold standard" for trade negotiations.

By backing away from the TPP, Mrs. Clinton could also be anticipating the arrival of another, more formidable opponent for the Democratic nomination: Joe Biden.

The vice president has made increasingly clear moves toward a presidential bid, and given his current job it would be extremely difficult for him to oppose a key piece of his boss's presidential legacy.

Mr. Biden's campaign would be likely to rely heavily on working-class, union support -- a segment of the Democratic electorate that is firmly opposed to new trade deals. Mrs. Clinton could be digging her trenches now, before the battle commences.

Pretty much a pure political move, designed to appeal to the interests of and/or avoid the criticism of those who would rather be voting for her challengers.  Savvy and craven, a Clinton hallmark.

On Glass-Steagall, the post-Depression law that got banks out of the investment business, created the FDIC, and which was repealed in 1999 by her husband, leading ultimately to the Second Great Depression of 2008...

Who supports it? Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley — two of Clinton’s challengers for the Democratic presidential nomination — as well as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who along with Arizona Sen. John McCain, reintroduced legislation to revive Glass-Steagall this year.

“Despite the progress we’ve made since 2008, the biggest banks continue to threaten our economy,” Warren said in a statement introducing the legislation. “The biggest banks are collectively much larger than they were before the crisis, and they continue to engage in dangerous practices that could once again crash our economy.”

Both Sanders and O’Malley have hit Clinton for her close ties to Wall Street.

“Her closeness with big banks on Wall Street is sincere,” O’Malley said in July. “It’s heartfelt, long established and well known.”

Why doesn’t Hillary? “The big banks are not the only thing we have to worry about,” Clinton said in Iowa Tuesday. “I’ve studied this real closely, and what I am proposing is we go after the risk, and if they are too big to manage, that is a risk and they should not continue. If they are so big that they are causing disruptions on the marketplace, that’s a risk.”

Clinton continued, “If you only reinstate Glass-Steagall, you don’t go after all these other institutions in what is called the shadow banking system — hedge funds and other financial entities that have too much power in our economy. I have what I consider to be a more comprehensive approach to what we need to do to rein in these institutions, including the big banks.”

The Democratic frontrunner also took a swipe at her rivals, like O’Malley, who are seeking to tie her to her husband’s repeal of Glass-Steagall.

“I’m going to go after what I think are the real problems, not the problems on the past,” Clinton said, “because what I’m interested in is stopping something like this from happening again.”

Reinstatement of Glass-Steagall has bipartisan Senate support, as the bill sponsors Warren and McCain would indicate.  The House is probably a different story.  If a Madam President thinks she can get a more rigorous financial regulation bill through the Congress a year and a half from now -- especially with a Democratic Senate led by Chuck Schumer (D-Wall Street) -- then the next policy announcement we will hear is that Mrs. Clinton supports full legalization of marijuana, because she's high.

Other than the obvious pandering, we seem to have her moving in the left direction.  Which is, again, the most I believe we could hope for.

Scattershooting more of Hillary's email

Lest anyone think I am a convert from yesterday's post, here's more headlines the front-runner (Clearly! Just ask Ted!) doesn't want to see...

Drip: "Second IT firm agrees to give FBI Clinton server data"

Hillary Clinton hired a Connecticut company to back up her emails on a “cloud” storage system, and her lawyers have agreed to turn whatever it contains over to the FBI, a personal familiar with the situation said Tuesday.

The disclosure came as a Republican Senate committee chairman, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, also asked the firm to turn over to the committee copies of any Clinton emails still in its possession.

There were conflicting accounts as to whether the development could lead to recovery of any of Clinton’s more than 31,000 personal emails, which she said she deleted from her private server upon turning over her work-related emails to the State Department, at its request, in December 2014.

[...]

The controversy seems sure to come up on Oct. 22, when Clinton is scheduled to testify to a House committee investigating the fatal 2012 attacks on U.S. facilities in Benghazi, Libya. It was the panel’s chairman who first declared last March that she had “wiped” her server clean based on a letter from Clinton’s attorney.

For chronological perspective, that hearing will be the week after next week's Democratic contenders' debate, and we'll be a few days into early voting here in Houston for the mayor's and city council races.

Drip: "Hillary's #2 at State twice forwarded now-classified email to Clinton Foundation"

According to a new email chain shared with POLITICO by Citizens United, Cheryl Mills — Clinton's former chief of state at State — forwarded State Department background information about Rwanda and the Congo to the Clintons' philanthropic organization. Citizens United, a conservative activist group, obtained the messages via a Freedom of Information act lawsuit.

Former President Bill Clinton was visiting Africa, including Rwanda, around the time that Mills sent the email, which was mostly redacted. Former president Clinton was also considering giving Rwandan President Paul Kagame a plenary role at the Clinton Global Initiative, according to the emails.

If you still need to understand why this is something and not nothing...

Meanwhile, the FBI is currently investigating whether classified information was ever mishandled via Hillary Clinton's private email server. For months, Clinton maintained that she did not have classified information on her homemade email server, until government watchdogs unveiled that she did. After those reports, the campaign maintained that Clinton had not received messages that were "marked" classified at the time.

The State Department has agreed with that assessment, but the intelligence community inspector general does not and has argued many of the emails were indeed classified at the time in 2012.

Beyond the classification issue, Republicans and other transparency groups have questioned whether the foundation’s work, funded in part by foreign donors, ever influenced what happened at the State Department. Or if the foundation received preferential treatment.

Mills sat on the foundation’s board before becoming the department’s No. 2 official and returned to the board after leaving State in 2013. And she appeared to continue to advise the foundation while at State, according to other emails revealed by the Citizens United lawsuit. Republicans say those connections between Mills and the Clinton Foundation raise questions about whether the relationship was too close. 

Bold emphasis in the excerpt is mine.  Mishandling and/or willfully disclosing classified data is a federal crime, under various statutes.  Just ask David Petraeus.  Or Chelsea Manning.  Or Edward Snowden.

Drip: "Employees at company working with Clinton email server expressed concerns"

(T)his past August, a Platte River Networks employee wrote to a coworker that he was, "Starting to think this whole thing really is covering up some shaddy (sic) s**t."

"I just think if we have it in writing that they told us to cut the backups, and that we can go public with our statement saying we have backups since day one, then we were told to trim to 30days (sic), it would make us look a WHOLE LOT better," the unnamed employee continued.

The email was sent shortly after news emerged that the FBI was looking into the security of the server, and several months after it was revealed that Clinton exclusively used the private account to conduct State Department business.

Now Clinton has to be concerned about whether one of these IT people rats her out to the FBI in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

Not to worry, Hillaryians: Bernie Sanders' campaign has a fatal flaw, and it's the candidate himself; he simply has too much integrity to win the White House.

“Bernie Sanders’s failure to become a member of either major political party excludes him from the network of cronyism and backroom deals required under our system to be elected,” said Davis Logsdon, a political scientist at the University of Minnesota. “Though that failure alone would disqualify Sanders, the fact that he is not beholden to a major corporate interest or investment bank would also make him ineligible.”

Because of his ineligibility, Logsdon said, the Vermont senator would be unable to fund-raise the one billion dollars required under the current system to run for president. “The best source of a billion dollars is billionaires, and Sanders has alienated them,” he said. “Clearly he didn’t think this through.”

Logsdon said that Sanders might persist in his quest for the White House despite his ineligibility but that such an effort would be doomed to fail. “Our political system has been refined over the years specifically to keep people like Bernie Sanders out of the White House,” he said.

“The system works.”

Clinton machine finally rumbles to life

She's had a few good days, maybe she can string together a few more before the debate next week.  First: Saturday Night Live, Val the bartender, and her imitation of Trump.

Hillary Rodham Clinton's starring role on the season premiere of "Saturday Night Live," as usual, comes down to the same old question: Did she do herself any favors? "I've had a hard couple of 22 years," her double, Kate McKinnon, told the real-life presidential candidate. A hard couple of 22 months as well.

What was unique about Clinton's role on "SNL" was in fact that it was a role: Val, the bartender. Usually the idea is just to play a funnier, nicer, more human and more ironic version of one's self.

If at all possible.

Coming from an incorrigible Clinton non-supporter, she managed it.

She, or Val, even tried impersonating Donald Trump, and it's fair to say most viewers had seen or heard better.... But that didn't mean the skit didn't work for Clinton. It actually did because it broke down a standard go-to joke, of having the politician come face to face with their alternate-universe "SNL" version. That's almost always guaranteed a quick laugh. Not much else. Recall Tina Fey and Sarah Palin, or Amy Poehler and Clinton.

And turning the joke however very gently back on Clinton -- as someone late to her convictions on issues such as gay marriage or even the Keystone XL pipeline -- didn't hurt her, either.

Viewers got to see Clinton laugh, too. They don't see that often either. There hasn't been a lot to laugh about. "I wish you could be president," said the Hillary-McKinnon character. "Me too," said Hillary-Val the bartender.

Critics will argue that Clinton got a free campaign commercial (they won't be wrong). Or that she diminished her stature as a serious candidate (wrong -- many politicians eventually find their way to Studio 8H, including President Barack Obama in 2012).

"Millennial pandering" was the rap she got recently from a Salon Daily Beast columnist for doing an interview with Lena Dunham and her "Lennyletter" newsletter. (But don't all politicians pander?) She even introduced Miley Cyrus -- who was on her best behavior Saturday for the occasion -- for the show's first musical performance.

OK, pandering.

This is really all we've come to expect from our politicians.  Contrast her performance with one Bernie Sanders might make on the show in the near future.  Maybe he can be funnier, or more warm, and compared to his gruff Brooklynite demeanor, it would be hilarious.  We'll have to wait and see.

More importantly, the prohibitive favorite to replace John Boehner gave her a gift and she's using it to full advantage.

Hil­lary Clin­ton doesn’t want voters to for­get that a top Cap­it­ol Hill Re­pub­lic­an last week cred­ited the House Se­lect Com­mit­tee on Benghazi with hurt­ing her pres­id­en­tial cam­paign.

Clin­ton’s cam­paign is launch­ing a new na­tion­al cable TV ad that high­lights the re­cent com­ments by House Ma­jor­ity Lead­er Kev­in Mc­Carthy—re­marks that Demo­crats call proof that the GOP-led pan­el is de­signed as a polit­ic­al weapon against her.

“The Re­pub­lic­ans fi­nally ad­mit it,” states the nar­rat­or of the ad that will be­gin air­ing Tues­day. It then shows the re­marks last week by Mc­Carthy, who is seek­ing to be­come the next speak­er of the House.

“Every­body thought Hil­lary Clin­ton was un­beat­able, right? But we put to­geth­er a Benghazi spe­cial com­mit­tee,” Mc­Carthy said on Fox News late Tues­day night. “What are her num­bers today?”

The ad’s nar­rat­or then states: “The Re­pub­lic­ans have spent mil­lions at­tack­ing Hil­lary be­cause she’s fight­ing for everything they op­pose. From af­ford­able health care to equal pay, she’ll nev­er stop fight­ing for you, and the Re­pub­lic­ans know it.”

McCarthy may have shit the bed in more places than one.

The re­marks, which were badly out of step with long-stand­ing GOP claims that the com­mit­tee is not polit­ic­al, irked Re­pub­lic­ans in­clud­ing Rep. Jason Chaf­fetz, who is mount­ing an up­hill can­did­acy against Mc­Carthy for the speak­er’s gavel.

Rarely does a political opponent hand you such a large cudgel to beat them with.   But these are House Republicans, after all.  The best and brightest among them just aren't as smart as a fifth grader.

Then there's next Tuesday's debate, which won't have Joe Biden as part of it.  That is, as someone once said, a BFD.  Biden would steal the limelight to some degree simply by being there.  If Clinton triumphs in the debate, rumors of his jumping-in might lessen.

All five but one of the six declared candidates have been invited to participate, but expect three -- Clinton, Sanders, and Martin O'Malley -- to do the most talking.  There's going to be some good cop (Sanders) - bad cop (O'Malley ) beating on the front-runner.  If James Webb, Lawrence Lessig, and Lincoln Chafee don't go after Clinton as well -- no guarantees that Chafee or Lessig won't -- then she might be able to withstand the onslaught from Bernie and Martin a bit better.  Webb is well to her right on nearly every issue, including the Confederate flag, Chafee is a gimmick and Lessig is a one-trick pony.  A very important single trick he has, as even the Houston mayor's race has revealed, but still more sideshow than serious candidate.

Update: Lessig will not be participating in Tuesday's debate.  Strike-throughs above reflect that correction.

I personally will look to see if Clinton goes after Sanders on gun safety.  This could be the thing that turns Sanders' polling south, after his slow, methodical surge upward.  She could be judged the winner of the forum based on this issue alone, almost irrespective of any other one.  The Black Lives Matter incidents and concerns should draw the full scrutiny of each candidate, but I don't see them quite as pivotal at this time; that is, absent a protest during the debate.  This analysis assumes no obvious gaffes by her or anybody else, for that matter.  Update: More from Reverb Press, who reminds me that O'Malley has long touted his record on strict gun laws.

I can almost guarantee gun control will be a prime topic in the first primary debate on October 13. My prediction: O’Malley and Clinton will not hold back on berating Sanders about his relaxed position on gun control throughout his (political) tenure.

Finally, Clinton needs to take a position on the TPP now that it's back in the news.  If she doesn't, she'll pay a price for it.  Expect her to shilly-shally right up to the last minute, then come out against.

That rumbling you heard that started over the weekend wasn't just thunder.  Hillary Clinton's campaign finally seems to be coming together.

Update:  More on everything I wrote and a little more here.

The Weekly voting registration deadline/MLB playoffs Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance, thankful for a cool snap, reminds those who wish to vote in next month's elections to register today, not tomorrow, and congratulates the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers for scooching into the MLB playoffs beginning later this week.

Off the Kuff highlights a new poll showing a gap between what the people of Texas believe and what their government stands for.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos, and contributing to Daily Kos, is grateful to U.S. House Speaker John Boehner for revealing his party's false prophets. She is also grateful a Republican presidential candidate's whopper about an abortion that did not happen is exposed.

SocraticGadfly cleans up the climate change trash that Erica Greider at Texas Monthly threw all over the ground.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme has had it with Republicans who treat workers like so much used toilet paper.

Lize Burr at Burnt Orange Report wonders how Texas got into this mess of Medicaid cuts to therapy workers.

The Lewisville Texan Journal expands its print distribution locations.

Both Egberto Willies and Millard Fillmore's Bathtub noted the Texas mother who read in her child's textbook that slavery had been redefined as immigration, and got the publisher to agree to revise it.

The Harris County Green Party endorsed four Democrats in Houston municipal elections, bypassing the only announced Green member who was declared, in At Large 3. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs says there's a story about that, but he's not telling it.

Neil at All People Have Value took note of a nebulous campaign slogan posted on a yard sign.  Asking for specifics from our elected officials might be the proper question as we move toward new leadership in Houston at City Hall.

And McBlogger offers a better understanding of the leading GOP candidates' tax plans (as opposed to self-immolation).

====================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Grits for Breakfast notes that statewide judicial candidates no longer have to get petition signatures from each appellate district.

Andrea Grimes, now writing for the Texas Observer, found herself aghast at the state of Texas' legal argument that denying some children their birth certificates has more to do with the Mexican government than it does the state's.

Carol Morgan says prayers are useless because stuff happens.

Tamara Tabo has some helpful hints for the Gaslamp and other (allegedly) racist nightclubs.

Lone Star Ma went pink in support of Planned Parenthood.

The TSTA Blog warns about bullies.

Eric Berger explains what the discovery of water on Mars means for the future of space exploration.

Zachery Taylor has the Walmart crime report for last month.

And Fascist Dyke Motors paid her kids back for passing along their bug by telling them scary stories about the things inside the walls.