Scattershooting the political consultants' scorecard

My blog brothers have done the heavy lifting.

-- Via Stace, here's your program.  This is the most important information Houston voters need to know about who might next run the city: who's whispering in the candidate's ear?   Who's telling them to zig instead of zag?  I've heard these people brag about the size of their Rolodexes, declare that's what you're buying when you pay them $10K a month.  What a country, eh?

Just like the Karl Roves and Dave Carneys, these behind-the-scenes players have the most influence.  Take note of who's advising whom, in a paid or unpaid capacity.

With ten candidates in the race for mayor, and a "viable" campaign needing to raise $2 million in order to get 15% of the vote just to make the runoff, ask yourself again why we need so much money sloshing around in our politics.

At those prices, we're not getting anything worth owning.

Update: The Baker Institute says it will take something between 21-23% of less than 200K votes (or about 40,000) for a single mayoral candidate -- two of Turner, Bell, Garcia, Costello, King, or Pennington left to right on your spectrum -- to make the runoff.  Consequently, every campaign will target its own base vote very narrowly, so as not to encourage other bases to show up at the polls.  In other words, low turnout is the winner's friend; suppress everybody's vote but yours.  I'd love to hear how some of those tactics will be executed.  Since Bob Stein and not Mark Jones authored that post, I can at least express a bit more confidence in its various premises.  There's some other data points worth sifting through there for all you inside baseballers.  I'll unpack more of that in my next blog post.

-- Also via Stace, A-Drain Garcia has issued either a caution or an exhortation, depending on whether he's ultimately in or out.

“@CesarRBShow: Cesar si esto sera una posibilidad, la comunidad tendra que votar en numeros historicos. Jovenes y adultos tendran que votar.
— Adrian Garcia (@SheriffGarcia) January 26, 2015

"The community will have to vote in historic numbers".  That's the understatement of the year.

Do you think it makes a Garcia bid more likely or less?  He may already be losing the consultants' race, after all.  I have to say 'less' just on its face, but Stace's response to my question there is a point well taken.  I'm also not listening to the radio shows, can't parse inflection or word usage or read between the lines in Spanish as well as I would like.  So we wait.

-- Charles has the take on state Sen. Don Huffines' bill that essentially nullifies any city ordinance if the state legislature doesn't approve... whether a state law is in place or not.  So a municipality would be prohibited from passing a law banning fracking, or protecting the civil rights of people born LGBT -- or establishing speed limits or fireworks restrictions or noise ordinances or eliminating plastic bags at the supermarket -- if Austin says 'no' or even thinks 'no'.  This from the party that wants judges to defy federal law when marriage equality is finally recognized.  (Roy Moore is just another throwback to the '60's and George Wallace, in case you haven't seen Selma yet.)

The hypocrisy is strong with this one.  And I don't mean just Huffines, either.

-- Obama's attorney general-designate, Loretta Lynch, is a prohibitionist when it comes to weed.  German Lopez at Vox says she's got the "pot is worse than booze" part wrong, and has some data that supports that.

Just for the record, I personally don't care to use it, legal or not.  With my conditions, I only have a couple of drinks a month, and I haven't roasted any herb in over two decades.  (Made me paranoid; was easy to quit.)  But the national trend toward decriminalization/legalization has moved almost as quickly as the marriage equality issue, two remarkable social upheavals that tend to terrify the most extreme of Christian conservatives.

I don't know and wouldn't think that Loretta Lynch is one of those.  But these notions about reefer madness are deeply embedded in the minds of people who prosecute for a living, which suggests it's going to take the next generation to soften the federal resolve in this matter.  And that's unfortunate.  I would have thought that she had greater insight into the legal scourge of these harsh and vindictive drug penalties and the devastating effect they have had on her generation of black men and women.  If she hasn't figured it out by now, she probably isn't going to.

Maybe she can be better on the police abuse cases that need to be addressed; she already has some history in that regard.  She's going to have a short time to make her mark beyond the 'first African American woman' label.

-- Like Sheriff Garcia, Scott Walker didn't finish college either.  I'm not voting for anybody who can't manage that.  This isn't the century where a farmer can pull himself up by his bootstraps and his common sense, move into the city, get a good job with union benefits and retire after forty years with a nice pension.

Oh sure, your geeky kid might quit college when he comes up with an app that makes him a trillionaire.  I just don't want him to run for president, or mayor, or purchase any of the people who do.  If you can't earn a baccalaureate degree and you want to be on the government payroll, then you can read meters or mow a park (I'd rather them not be given a gun and a badge either, but that's another problem).  It's a different world and we don't need under-educated people in charge at any level.  No sheepskin is a dealbreaker for me.

If someone can leverage that perceived effrontery to motivate the vote, more power to them.  Anything that works in that regard would not be an unwelcome development... even if they voted en masse for the least-educated person on their ballot.

At least we'd have some successful voter turnout model to build on.

"Get the panic buttons ready"

I blogged yesterday that I thought Damn Patrick made a huge mistake in declaring himself an opponent of open carry one moment and a squishy supporter the next, and that the gun nuts would respond in a clear voice.  Indeed, I didn't have to wait long.

"There is absolutely no reason for Dan Patrick to be saying these things," said CJ Grisham, a retired Army sergeant who founded the group Open Carry Texas in 2013. "I think this is a cop-out. I think we have a lot of Republicans who ran on lies."

The nuttier the gun goon, the worse it was for the rookie LG.

Patrick's comments Tuesday were seen by many in those groups as a reversal from his campaign promise to "fight for open carry." His remarks went viral on social media, with the leader of one group calling on members to "hit up his phones and social media" to "hit him so hard he eats the words 'lack of support.'"

"I'm coming to his office Thursday. Tell them to get the panic buttons ready," Kory Watkins, the head of Open Carry Tarrant County, posted on Facebook, referring to a rule approved by the House earlier this month allowing lawmakers to bill the state to install panic buttons after Watkins and fellow members from the group confronted Rep. Poncho Nevarez in his Capitol office. The Eagle Pass Democrat now is accompanied by a security detail after he and his family received a slew of threats after the incident, the Austin American-Statesman reported Tuesday.

By Tuesday afternoon, Patrick felt it necessary to take to social media in an attempt to clarify his remarks. On Facebook, he said the question is not whether many residents support open carry, but whether there is "enough support statewide to persuade enough legislators to pass it."

"That is the case with all legislation, no matter the topic," he said.

Well, not with tax cuts or vouchers.  Or resisting Medicaid expansion.  Or hating on the gays.  Or reducing women's preventative health care down to nothing.  But that's a digression.

Patrick is hornier for concealed carry on college campuses than he is open carry, a distinction without a difference to everyone but the most extreme conservative penis-extension fetishist.  Fortunately the guy who does the polls for the Texas Tribune steps up to gunsplain it for us (since Patrick has his thoughts a little jammed).  It seems the lite gov is inexperienced in the handling of firearms.  Or maybe the gavel.

James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said Patrick is trying to maintain a delicate balance between providing leadership while still avoiding the temptation to overtly pressure senators. His recent remarks, Henson added, are unsurprising given the negative press that has swirled around the open carry movement, and by the focus on unlicensed carry, which may not be as palatable to Texans as supporters think.

"It's a function of the fact that the issue has become a little more complicated, and he is adapting to his position as presiding officer rather than a voting member," said Henson, who said open carry legislation went from "a sure thing" to "something that needs to be shepherded" after the confrontation with Nevarez.

"It should not be assumed that as pro-gun as Texas is, that among urban and suburban Republicans, particularly Republican women, that you're going to find support for completely unlicensed open carry," Henson said. "I think he's edging toward caution because it's not clear what bill will move through the process."

Thanks for clearing that up, Jim.  There's a future for you in the NRA's public relations department if the polling gig doesn't work out.

I don't need a poll to determine that most Texans -- not just Republican moms -- aren't happy about seeing people in the grocery store, in the pharmacy, in the mall, and at school ambling around strapped.  It's a terrible idea, one I thought we were all going to have to get used to, but -- with no small amount of amazement -- find myself agreeing with Patrick in these early days of the session.  I'm still doubting he has the strength of his nebulous, waffling convictions to stand up to the Open Carry thugs, but it sure will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  Either the lieutenant governor will be forced to knuckle under or the gun freaks are going to be spitting mad.  Could be very bad for innocent bystanders, no matter which of those is left standing after the smoke clears.

I'd like to pop some corn, but I think I'll put on my flak jacket instead.

Update: Read this from Wonkette.  Just go read it.

Several reveals in Patrick's agenda

We have to take his word at face value -- always a tenuous proposition with the newly-crowned lieutenant governor -- but in this case I don't think he's bullshitting anybody.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Tuesday again emphasized that he will push for significant property tax and business tax cuts this year even in the face of lower oil prices and scaled-back state revenue projections.

“I am not playing small ball on tax relief,” Patrick said. “That is what the people want us to do. We have the capability to do it and we need to do it. People need tax relief.”

No surprise here.  Cutting taxes as oil keeps dropping, as the hedge fund managers keep going short, will IMHO be the biggest mistake this legislature makes.  They're blowing a hole in their budget the size of the Permian Basin, and sooner than later it will be obvious to them.  For all the rest of us, sadly, they will be the last ones to know.  This, however, is a great surprise...

“Open carry is important, but I don’t think there is support in the Legislature to pass it,” Patrick said. “The votes have not been there.” By contrast, he thinks the odds are much better for passage of a bill to allow licensed persons to carry handguns on college campuses. A campus carry bill in the Senate already has 19 co-sponsors, enough to approve the measure.

This is the first negative word I have read about open carry.  It obviously won't make it if Patrick stands against it.  And why he would incur the wrath of the gun nuts by so openly defying them in the session's first weeks is, in a word, puzzling.  I can't decide if this is another giant miscalculation on his part or something else, some machination to drive a different course.  For now I am going to wait and see how this unencumbered message gets interpreted by its recipients.

Vouchers, like tax cuts, contain no ambiguity.

Patrick also said school choice legislation is one of a handful of measures this session that he will throw his weight behind because of its importance to him. “I believe we will pass a school choice bill in the Senate and we have a good chance of passing it in the House,” he said.

In the past, Patrick has supported a proposal to give tax credits to businesses that donate money for scholarships to private and religious schools. The proposal would initially be aimed at lower-income students who attend public schools with low performance ratings.

The lieutenant governor also joined other legislative leaders in predicting that major decisions on school finance will wait until after the Texas Supreme Court has ruled on a lower court decision that overturned the current funding system. The high court is not expected to hear the appeal until the fall, well after the current legislative session has ended.

This leaves a final decision in the hands of the 85th Texas Legislature, convening in 2017.  No doubt to require lower and higher court clearance again, meaning the matter won't be settled until 2018 or '19.  Assuming the judicial branch agrees with the legislative's fixes, of course.

Every time the Lege fails on funding public education in Texas, it pushes the repairs five years into the future.  That's a wonderful legacy they're leaving the children of Texas, isn't it?

More on Patrick's agenda from Texas Leftist and Texas Politics, and still more on the just-released budget from Trail Blazers and the Observer.

Update: Lauren McGaughy at the Chronicle explains open carry's dilemma, and Dan Patrick is revealed as a flip-flopper.  I still don't quite understand why he's against it -- sometimes -- when he's said so often he's for it -- on occasion -- but that's his tea to steep in now.  Maybe someone with OCT can try to nail him down as a firm yes or a no.

A Walker wedge in Iowa

I promised I wouldn't start this early, but the Iowa Freedom Summit this past weekend provided a target-rich environment.  In particular, one emerged as the Corndog State's darling.

Before the Iowa Freedom Summit on Saturday, one Republican activist summed up Gov. Scott Walker’s challenge this way: “He doesn’t make the flashbulbs go off.” But at the end of the marathon day of speeches before conservatives, the Wisconsin governor emerged as the leading light.

There were plenty of well-received speeches during the day from Sen. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, but it was their home turf. The Freedom Summit, put on by Rep. Steve King and Citizens United, was a gathering of the base of the Republican base. But it was a bit of a SkyMall event—while there were lots of offerings it wasn’t clear if there was a place for the most exotic ones. Donald Trump, for example, may say he’s considering running for president, but it’s as hard to believe that he will be president as it is to understand the need for an Eye of the Dragon Mystical Safe Box.

Walker did the most to help himself politically, elevating his stature as a candidate who might achieve the elusive synthesis of pleasing the party base while also attracting a general election audience.

Not too extreme, not too moderate... the Goldilocks candidate.

Oh, Rand Paul should peel off some of the nuts, as will Ted Cruz (both have their daddy issues, after all), but Mitt and Jeb and Gov. Texass are the ones who should be the most worried.  There's only room for one of them a year from now, and they've each got so much baggage that they won't be allowed to board the plane.  Marco Rubio and Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee and Rick Frothy Mixture and Rick Oops and the rest of the baker's dozen of batshits will prevaricate and obfuscate, hoping to make it to the end of next January with something to brag about.  But there will eventually be one completely psycho goon and one slightly less so left standing, with the Tea Pees frustrated but still in line, and the biggest of money men ready to write still more checks.

That's why Walker will look so good to them once the field has been cleared.  He drives his tractor right down the middle between Romney, Bush, and Christie on the left and Cruz, Perry, Paul, Carson, Huckabee, Santorum and whomever else on the extreme farthest right.  Walker is the keynoter at the Harris County GOP's Lincoln-Reagan dinner in March, here locally.  Perhaps his aide -- the one who recently got out of prison -- will be able to accompany him.

Update: This won't help your cause, Gov. Walker.  You have to keep some semblance of hatred for poor people going at least until the primaries begin.

Update II: Some others noted the hypocrisy of the sudden advocacy of progressive populist issues such as income inequality.  That's also a non-starter in the long run; at this point they're testing themes to see what might resonate.  With their base, this one won't.  But there were some interesting developments with teleprompters, the discarding of which was a topic pioneered by Donald Trump some years ago.

Update III: There's a very good reason Bobby Jindal has not been mentioned until now, and not simply because he skipped the Iowa event for his own.

If I had to pick four finalists after South Carolina next February (and not this one), it would be Bush, Walker, Rand, and Huckster.  And they will battle to the death from there.  But there's still plenty of room in the clown car for somebody to stand up and stick out.