"Get the panic buttons ready"

I blogged yesterday that I thought Damn Patrick made a huge mistake in declaring himself an opponent of open carry one moment and a squishy supporter the next, and that the gun nuts would respond in a clear voice.  Indeed, I didn't have to wait long.

"There is absolutely no reason for Dan Patrick to be saying these things," said CJ Grisham, a retired Army sergeant who founded the group Open Carry Texas in 2013. "I think this is a cop-out. I think we have a lot of Republicans who ran on lies."

The nuttier the gun goon, the worse it was for the rookie LG.

Patrick's comments Tuesday were seen by many in those groups as a reversal from his campaign promise to "fight for open carry." His remarks went viral on social media, with the leader of one group calling on members to "hit up his phones and social media" to "hit him so hard he eats the words 'lack of support.'"

"I'm coming to his office Thursday. Tell them to get the panic buttons ready," Kory Watkins, the head of Open Carry Tarrant County, posted on Facebook, referring to a rule approved by the House earlier this month allowing lawmakers to bill the state to install panic buttons after Watkins and fellow members from the group confronted Rep. Poncho Nevarez in his Capitol office. The Eagle Pass Democrat now is accompanied by a security detail after he and his family received a slew of threats after the incident, the Austin American-Statesman reported Tuesday.

By Tuesday afternoon, Patrick felt it necessary to take to social media in an attempt to clarify his remarks. On Facebook, he said the question is not whether many residents support open carry, but whether there is "enough support statewide to persuade enough legislators to pass it."

"That is the case with all legislation, no matter the topic," he said.

Well, not with tax cuts or vouchers.  Or resisting Medicaid expansion.  Or hating on the gays.  Or reducing women's preventative health care down to nothing.  But that's a digression.

Patrick is hornier for concealed carry on college campuses than he is open carry, a distinction without a difference to everyone but the most extreme conservative penis-extension fetishist.  Fortunately the guy who does the polls for the Texas Tribune steps up to gunsplain it for us (since Patrick has his thoughts a little jammed).  It seems the lite gov is inexperienced in the handling of firearms.  Or maybe the gavel.

James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said Patrick is trying to maintain a delicate balance between providing leadership while still avoiding the temptation to overtly pressure senators. His recent remarks, Henson added, are unsurprising given the negative press that has swirled around the open carry movement, and by the focus on unlicensed carry, which may not be as palatable to Texans as supporters think.

"It's a function of the fact that the issue has become a little more complicated, and he is adapting to his position as presiding officer rather than a voting member," said Henson, who said open carry legislation went from "a sure thing" to "something that needs to be shepherded" after the confrontation with Nevarez.

"It should not be assumed that as pro-gun as Texas is, that among urban and suburban Republicans, particularly Republican women, that you're going to find support for completely unlicensed open carry," Henson said. "I think he's edging toward caution because it's not clear what bill will move through the process."

Thanks for clearing that up, Jim.  There's a future for you in the NRA's public relations department if the polling gig doesn't work out.

I don't need a poll to determine that most Texans -- not just Republican moms -- aren't happy about seeing people in the grocery store, in the pharmacy, in the mall, and at school ambling around strapped.  It's a terrible idea, one I thought we were all going to have to get used to, but -- with no small amount of amazement -- find myself agreeing with Patrick in these early days of the session.  I'm still doubting he has the strength of his nebulous, waffling convictions to stand up to the Open Carry thugs, but it sure will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  Either the lieutenant governor will be forced to knuckle under or the gun freaks are going to be spitting mad.  Could be very bad for innocent bystanders, no matter which of those is left standing after the smoke clears.

I'd like to pop some corn, but I think I'll put on my flak jacket instead.

Update: Read this from Wonkette.  Just go read it.

Several reveals in Patrick's agenda

We have to take his word at face value -- always a tenuous proposition with the newly-crowned lieutenant governor -- but in this case I don't think he's bullshitting anybody.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Tuesday again emphasized that he will push for significant property tax and business tax cuts this year even in the face of lower oil prices and scaled-back state revenue projections.

“I am not playing small ball on tax relief,” Patrick said. “That is what the people want us to do. We have the capability to do it and we need to do it. People need tax relief.”

No surprise here.  Cutting taxes as oil keeps dropping, as the hedge fund managers keep going short, will IMHO be the biggest mistake this legislature makes.  They're blowing a hole in their budget the size of the Permian Basin, and sooner than later it will be obvious to them.  For all the rest of us, sadly, they will be the last ones to know.  This, however, is a great surprise...

“Open carry is important, but I don’t think there is support in the Legislature to pass it,” Patrick said. “The votes have not been there.” By contrast, he thinks the odds are much better for passage of a bill to allow licensed persons to carry handguns on college campuses. A campus carry bill in the Senate already has 19 co-sponsors, enough to approve the measure.

This is the first negative word I have read about open carry.  It obviously won't make it if Patrick stands against it.  And why he would incur the wrath of the gun nuts by so openly defying them in the session's first weeks is, in a word, puzzling.  I can't decide if this is another giant miscalculation on his part or something else, some machination to drive a different course.  For now I am going to wait and see how this unencumbered message gets interpreted by its recipients.

Vouchers, like tax cuts, contain no ambiguity.

Patrick also said school choice legislation is one of a handful of measures this session that he will throw his weight behind because of its importance to him. “I believe we will pass a school choice bill in the Senate and we have a good chance of passing it in the House,” he said.

In the past, Patrick has supported a proposal to give tax credits to businesses that donate money for scholarships to private and religious schools. The proposal would initially be aimed at lower-income students who attend public schools with low performance ratings.

The lieutenant governor also joined other legislative leaders in predicting that major decisions on school finance will wait until after the Texas Supreme Court has ruled on a lower court decision that overturned the current funding system. The high court is not expected to hear the appeal until the fall, well after the current legislative session has ended.

This leaves a final decision in the hands of the 85th Texas Legislature, convening in 2017.  No doubt to require lower and higher court clearance again, meaning the matter won't be settled until 2018 or '19.  Assuming the judicial branch agrees with the legislative's fixes, of course.

Every time the Lege fails on funding public education in Texas, it pushes the repairs five years into the future.  That's a wonderful legacy they're leaving the children of Texas, isn't it?

More on Patrick's agenda from Texas Leftist and Texas Politics, and still more on the just-released budget from Trail Blazers and the Observer.

Update: Lauren McGaughy at the Chronicle explains open carry's dilemma, and Dan Patrick is revealed as a flip-flopper.  I still don't quite understand why he's against it -- sometimes -- when he's said so often he's for it -- on occasion -- but that's his tea to steep in now.  Maybe someone with OCT can try to nail him down as a firm yes or a no.

A Walker wedge in Iowa

I promised I wouldn't start this early, but the Iowa Freedom Summit this past weekend provided a target-rich environment.  In particular, one emerged as the Corndog State's darling.

Before the Iowa Freedom Summit on Saturday, one Republican activist summed up Gov. Scott Walker’s challenge this way: “He doesn’t make the flashbulbs go off.” But at the end of the marathon day of speeches before conservatives, the Wisconsin governor emerged as the leading light.

There were plenty of well-received speeches during the day from Sen. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, but it was their home turf. The Freedom Summit, put on by Rep. Steve King and Citizens United, was a gathering of the base of the Republican base. But it was a bit of a SkyMall event—while there were lots of offerings it wasn’t clear if there was a place for the most exotic ones. Donald Trump, for example, may say he’s considering running for president, but it’s as hard to believe that he will be president as it is to understand the need for an Eye of the Dragon Mystical Safe Box.

Walker did the most to help himself politically, elevating his stature as a candidate who might achieve the elusive synthesis of pleasing the party base while also attracting a general election audience.

Not too extreme, not too moderate... the Goldilocks candidate.

Oh, Rand Paul should peel off some of the nuts, as will Ted Cruz (both have their daddy issues, after all), but Mitt and Jeb and Gov. Texass are the ones who should be the most worried.  There's only room for one of them a year from now, and they've each got so much baggage that they won't be allowed to board the plane.  Marco Rubio and Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee and Rick Frothy Mixture and Rick Oops and the rest of the baker's dozen of batshits will prevaricate and obfuscate, hoping to make it to the end of next January with something to brag about.  But there will eventually be one completely psycho goon and one slightly less so left standing, with the Tea Pees frustrated but still in line, and the biggest of money men ready to write still more checks.

That's why Walker will look so good to them once the field has been cleared.  He drives his tractor right down the middle between Romney, Bush, and Christie on the left and Cruz, Perry, Paul, Carson, Huckabee, Santorum and whomever else on the extreme farthest right.  Walker is the keynoter at the Harris County GOP's Lincoln-Reagan dinner in March, here locally.  Perhaps his aide -- the one who recently got out of prison -- will be able to accompany him.

Update: This won't help your cause, Gov. Walker.  You have to keep some semblance of hatred for poor people going at least until the primaries begin.

Update II: Some others noted the hypocrisy of the sudden advocacy of progressive populist issues such as income inequality.  That's also a non-starter in the long run; at this point they're testing themes to see what might resonate.  With their base, this one won't.  But there were some interesting developments with teleprompters, the discarding of which was a topic pioneered by Donald Trump some years ago.

Update III: There's a very good reason Bobby Jindal has not been mentioned until now, and not simply because he skipped the Iowa event for his own.

If I had to pick four finalists after South Carolina next February (and not this one), it would be Bush, Walker, Rand, and Huckster.  And they will battle to the death from there.  But there's still plenty of room in the clown car for somebody to stand up and stick out.

The Weekly Wrangle

Well over two-thirds of the Texas Progressive Alliance thinks this legislative session is off to an inauspicious start as we bring you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff reviewed the state of play in the mayor's races in Houston and San Antonio.

light seeker at Texas Kaos writes a thought-provoking article about how we can create a more inclusive prosperity and save democracy at the same time. The Great Progressivism Debate, Part 2.

The latest developments in the Houston mayoral contest posted by by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs had Adrian Garcia dropping hints and Chris Bell throwing his hat in.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is tired of Henry Cuellar acting like a crony capitalist Republican. Why can't Cuellar represent his constituents?

WCNews at Eye on Williamson notes the demise of the 2/3rds rule in the Texas Senate. That's what happens when 60 percent of 30 percent "govern" our state.

Guess who's offering middle class tax hikes, asks and answers Egberto Willies.

Neil at All People Have Value got inspired by some concrete at Houston's Intercontinental Airport.

Bluedaze has more on fracking and Texas earthquakes.

Dos Centavos wants to know if Sheriff Adrian Garcia is going to give up that post and run for mayor of Houston, and had some thoughts about the fallout if he does.

Texpate opined about Dan Patrick's Senate committee assignments, and John Coby at Bay Area Houston repeated the prayer that opened the 84th legislative session last week.

jobsanger graphed a poll that showed 26% of Americans believe God picks the winners of football (and baseball and basketball) games.

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And here's a few more great blog posts from around Texas.

Prairie Weather observes that, for progressives, there's just not a lot to like about Hillary Clinton.

Speaking of taxes, Socratic Gadfly proposes a Texas goods and services tax.

Grits for Breakfast interviews Jeff Blackburn of the Innocence Project of Texas.

Texas Vox warns about the Regulatory Accountability Act (RAA) that Congress recently passed.

Trail Blazers reported on the immigration protestors that interrupted Rick Perry's speech in Iowa over the weekend.

Political Animals observed that the new first lady of Texas, Cecilia Abbott, headlined the anti-choice rally over the weekend in Austin.  Because of course.

Dwight Silverman documents a year of living without cable.

Concerned Citizens contemplates the meaning of the MLK Day march and the #ReclaimMLK movement.

SciGuy has five can't-miss space events for 2015.

The Lunch Tray concludes that new ag commissioner Sid Miller is being deliberately dishonest in his "cupcake amnesty" proclamations.

Minding Houston explains the current state of mental health funding in Texas.

Lisa Falkenberg pens the second-worst poem ever about the end of Rick Perry's reign as governor.

Sunday Funnies