A couple of post mortem thoughts

-- Wendy Davis' perceived weakness in South Texas (it's only perceived by those who use the hashtag #tcot and read Breitbart) isn't.

As for South Texas,  there’s no contest. In the big three South Texas counties – Cameron, Hidalgo and Webb – Davis got 35,954 votes to Abbott’s 8,853. Or more than four times as many votes as the Republican attorney general. As we reported today, both candidates are already in general election mode, already making a pitch for Hispanic voters and suburban women – two important voter groups. There were few contested statewide races on the Democratic side Tuesday, but several on the GOP side to motivate Republican votes to go the polls Tuesday. Still, results in seven top South Texas counties in Tuesday’s primary finds that Davis got nearly five times more votes than Abbott.

-- Turnout was lame, but turnout is always lame in non-presidential primaries.  BGTX is playing a long game, and it's working.  More in similar vein from Ed Sills at QR.

Reynaldo “Ray” Madrigal got 20.94 percent of the vote. Also, they suggest an “excitement deficit” for Democrats, as Davis got only 432,000 votes, compared to 517,487 for gubernatorial candidate Bill White in the 2010 Democratic primary.

Turnout was light, in part because of bad weather, a lost day of early voting on Presidents Day and voter procrastination. But in larger part, turnout was light because the statewide Democratic matchups were so low on the marquee that they had to be squeezed in with tweezers. Republicans were on TV, it seemed, more than erectile dysfunction ads. Even Democrats’ attention was distracted in the fashion of spectators witnessing a car wreck.

The Democratic Party in Texas still has a mountain to climb, but neither the primary numbers nor the expectations game adds much insight in reading the November crystal ball.

Sills provides more rationale behind the paywall, but I'll leave it at this.

For Democrats looking for any evidence of “excitement,” there is this nugget: Davis’s vote total of 432,000 was just 19,000 short of the vote total for Leticia Van de Putte, who received the nomination for Lieutenant Governor with no opposition. Nearly 100,000 Democrats appear to have stopped voting after the governor’s race. Even the U.S. Senate race, above Davis on the ballot, had 40,000 fewer votes. 

In March, the Davis machine turned them out for her.  In November, they had best be turning them out for everybody on the ticket.

-- Kuff joins the chorus of critics of the Texas Tribune's pre-election poll.  He came in behind RG Ratcliffe, posting again at James Moore's Don't Grow Texas.  Bashing the TexTrib has gotten awfully popular lately, and it's approaching pile-on status.  So... since I led the way on this criticism almost five years ago, I'm going to take the initiative and back off them a little.

Yes, they did get a couple of things correct.

In their defense, they hit the fairway on several races, as well. They hit the Abbott win for governor down to the percentage, and came only a few points of hitting Cornyn-Stockman on the screws (they had it 62-16). They had a bit of a miss on the Davis primary win, forecasting a much bigger win over Ray Madrigal. But blowouts are tough to hit on the percentage to begin with, and the outsized polling margin might've hinted at an undercount of Latino voters, which was Madrigal's best demographic last night.

[...]

So, what happened? Two things can be cited as causes for the errant numbers. Neither of those factors necessarily acquit UT entirely, but do offer valuable context.

First off, the poll is actually a little bit older than one might think. It was released early last week, but it was already a week old when it was released: It was in the field from Feb. 7-17. This means that the respondents missed the late campaign efforts of the candidates, which certainly played a role in the Democratic Senate primary (where Alameel did run ads late) and may have done so in the other downballot affairs, as well.

Second, turnout sucked. Both the Republican and Democratic primaries saw turnout that, at last check, was 150,000 voters fewer than came to the polls in 2010.

As for the other pollsters being held to account: The short answer is that there weren't many others to assess. Perhaps due to the genuine lack of competitive races of interest (with due respect to Alameel or Rogers, the Democratic Senate primary is all but assumed to be a battle for who will lose by 20+ to John Cornyn in November), only two other primary polls were released. One, a December poll by a GOP pollster interested in the Senate race, was too early to "judge," but was pretty close to correct, anyway (they had Cornyn leading Stockman 50-6). The other, a Gravis poll from last month, was an air ball. They had Stockman at 28 percent, and they had Cornyn well under the runoff threshold (43 percent). Not. Even. Close.

There was no other polling conducted except the two dubious ones mentioned above, and neither of them fared any better.  Let's put the blame for that squarely on the corporate media in Texas -- the newspapers, the broadcast outlets -- which have completely relinquished this responsibility.  They are content to rake in the assloads of campaign cash spent on advertising, but not deliver any news on the races in exchange for the windfall.  Hearst, with its slew of papers large and small across Texas, and Belo, all but a monopoly in the Dallas market, are due for significant shaming in this regard.

So yes, the TexTrib should be conducting better polling.  But the media giants that used to do it, even in conjunction with one another to share the cost, have abandoned it altogether.  That's the real disgrace.

Update: Now if you want to see another bullshit poll, look at this one.  And Kuff also has some advice for the TT on how to improve their polling.

Easy on the WTF and not so much SMH (Harris County and across Texas)

As Charles has noted, there's good news here.

-- Kim Ogg over Lloyd Oliver for District Attorney, Steven Kirkland over Lori Gray for Judge of the 113th Civil District Court.

Sanity prevailed.  Ogg breezed with 76% while Kirkland built on an early-vote lead and hit 54%.  The good guys and gals won and the bad guys lost.

-- The biggest news locally was the Harris GOP chair going down in flames.  Paul Simpson, the challenger to Jared Woodfill, crushed the longtime incumbent 53-37 (with third candidate Wendy M. Berry getting the other 10).

I watched this play out over the last few days on Big Jolly's blog, and ony saw Woodfill coasting to re-election.  In working my precinct over the past couple of weeks -- when my health allowed -- I saw more signs for Paul Simpson than for anyone else (though Wendy Davis and Jerry Patterson ran a close second and third).  You know the old saying, though; yard signs don't vote.

It was Jolly's posts that fascinated me: his endorsement of Woodfill over Simpson (despite having denounced Woodfill repeatedly in posts in the past), his strident condemnation of the gay hatred running rampant among Woodfill-ites, his appearance at the Hate the Gay Marriage rally at HCRP HQ on Monday, particularly with this line...

The HCRP’s crazy uncle (Dr. Steven Hotze) even smiled at me – I winked at him – he blushed. No telling what he’s thinking right now.

You have to read all of that if you want to get a glimpse into the ironies, contradictions, cognitive dissonance, and outright hypocrisy that permeate the local Republican chapter.  Considering that the Harris County GOP is one of the largest in the country, not just the state, what's roiling and boiling them over is that the moderates seem to still have the upper hand.  Ed Emmett gambled big and won.  Two of the other county commissioners and a host of other GOP highlifes lost.  Emily Deprang at the Texas Observer...

Earlier (last night), I called Harris GOP chair candidate Paul Simpson the conservative Punxsutawney Phil because a win for him could signal moderation afoot. Simpson ran against 12-year incumbent Jared Woodfill for the third time on a platform of broadening the party base and easing off social issues—and he won. With nearly all precincts reporting, Simpson took 53 percent in a three-way race. Woodfill got just 37. This wasn’t a fluke, either. Simpson got a boost from big names like Harris County Judge Ed Emmett and raised $145,000 for a position that doesn’t pay a dime. It does, however, influence the state party’s direction. This should be interesting.

There is moderation among urban Texas Republicans; not so much the suburbanites and rurals.  Sarah Davis, the most liberal Republican in the Texas House, won her primary against her from-the-right challenger by 2-1.  That the Tea Party still holds sway outside the big cities is evidenced by all of the incumbent GOP state legislators who lost their primaries across the state.  Paul Burka:

On the Senate side, Bob Hall pushed incumbent Robert Deuell into a runoff. Konni Burton leads Mark Shelton into the runoff. Donald Huffines is leading incumbent John Carona. So far the only Empower Texans-endorsed candidate not to push through is Mike Canon, who lost to Kel Seliger.

As for the House, of the 20 or so key races I was following, the majority of those supportive of the leadership won (some key knockoffs were Linda Harper-Brown, a committee chair, Ralph Sheffield, Bennett Ratliff, and Diane Patrick). Of those incumbers backed by Empower Texans who were being challenged, Jonathan Stickland, Charles Perry, and Matt Schaefer won their races. Stefani Carter is in a runoff after coming in second (and running a poor campaign). Several Empower Texans candidates pulled through in the open seats as well--T.J, Fabby and Ted Seago led their races into the runoff, and Mark Keough won outright.

The Lege is going to get more red, but not because of Republicans in the metros.

Finally, some Congressional races to take note of.

-- CD-36 has a GOP runoff between Woodville mayor and dentist Brian Babin and Houston businessman and Tea Party favorite Ben Streusand.  One of these two will (probably) succeed Steve Stockman in Congress.  Once again, read all about them both at Big Jolly.  The Libertarian-turned-Democrat is Michael Cole, and there's also a Libertarian and a Green and an independent running.

-- CD-7's Democratic primary had a more predictable outcome: James Cargas over Lissa Squiers.  Cargas, one of the lousiest persons (not to mention aspiring politicians) I have ever encountered in any party, ran again this year just to spite his primary opponent.  He abandoned some of the sneaky, underhanded dirty tricks he pulled two years ago, and instead smeared a whole new truckload of slime.  Cargas underperformed the Democratic ticket in Harris County in 2012, and also underperformed the Democrats who have run in the district going back ten years, with 36% of the vote.  He managed that in an Obama presidential election year, too.

The over/under for Cargas' rematch with John Culberson in November is 33.3 -- the same number that John Martinez got in 2004.  I'm betting heavily on the under.  And as in 2012 (if I don't undervote it, that is) I'll cast a ballot for the Libertarian.

Just a dash of WTF (statewide races)

But a lot of SMH.  The no-surprises:

-- Wendy Davis, John Cornyn, and Greg Abbott.

There was no discernible effort by TeaBagger Country to send a statement in the top races on the Republican ticket. They saved their best for down-ballot.

The OMGs:

-- David "Money to Burn" Alameel led the field with 50%+ in early returns but finished at 47, pushed into a May runoff with Impeacha Rogers, who got 22%.  This is worse than a disaster for Democrats.  I can vote for Emily "Spicybrown" Sanchez (and I hope a lot of Latino Democrats in the RGV do the same) with a clean conscience, unlike Gadfly.

-- Dan Patrick (R-LG) over The Dew 41-28, Ken Paxton (R-AG) leading Dan Branch 44-33, Glenn Hegar (R-Compt.) apparently beating Harvey Hilderbrand and Debra Medina without a runoff (Update: or maybe there will be a runoff), Jim Hogan (D-Ag Commish) ahead of Kinky Friedman 39-38, and Sid Miller (R-Ag Commish) besting a field of five with 35% but in a runoff with Tommy Merritt.

Dan Patrick led nearly every urban county. He steamrolled Dewhurst and will finish him off in May. For comparison's sake, Dewhurst led Ted Cruz 45-34 in 2012's US Senate primary, and Cruz won the runoff with 56-43.  Dewhurst actually lost almost two percentage points in the runoff.

Paxton and Branch are both North Texas statewide legislators, one (Paxton) slightly more socially conservative than the other (Branch).  Both spent heavily on TV ads and sent ultra-RWNJ Barry Smitherman to the sidelines.

"Guns" Hegar's TV ads paid off and embarrassed the TexTrib's poll badly.

"No Name Means Everything" Jim Hogan, who raised no money and spent less than $5K of his own -- but none of it on a website -- led The Kinkster into a runoff for the Democratic nomination for Agriculture Commissioner.  The best candidate in the race, Hugh Fitzsimons, ate their dust.  It gets worse, however, because...

Sid Miller, who authored the sonogram law, who pulls his quarter horses behind his truck -- and not inside a trailer -- and who has Ted Nugent as his campaign manager, leads the Republican side for ag commissioner.

I'll be proudly voting for the Green, Kenneth Kendrick, in November no matter which of these exceptional blue and red morons prevails in the spring.

-- Last, Wayne "I am the Most" Christian leads Ryan Sitton into a runoff for Railroad Commission on the Republican side, 43-31.  State Impact notes that like so many other Republicans in contested primaries, they ran on an anti-Obama platform and not oil and gas issues.  And in a nutshell, that's why my friend Prairie Weather misses the mark here.  You can't understand Texas politics by reading DC and NY media.  Update: Talking Points Memo does seem to get the nuances in the TXGOP dynamic (but that's because Ed Kilgore wrote it).  And Booman has his take on both Kilgore's and John Fund's reaction to yesterday.  Note this at the very end.

Kilgore notes that even insofar as the Establishment had a decent night, they accomplished it by moving (or being pulled) to the right. How that works in detail depends on the issue you're concerned with. When a candidate has merely given lip service to a radical position, that's one thing. When they've felt compelled to make radical pledges and promises, that's another.

The Republican Establishment in Texas may remain distinguishable from the howling horde in some substantive ways, but the way they present themselves to the nation is now just plain frightening.

The GOP's biggest delegation looks and sounds just like Louie Gohmert. The smarter ones look and sound just like Ted Cruz.

That's going to be a problem for the national party going forward.

Charles and Ted have more, and some Harris County results coming up in a moment.

Election returns are going to outlast me

With Travis County holding their polls open until 9 pm, and with Clerk Stanart already warning he's going to be slow with Harris County, I'm going to leave analysis of the results to the experts who are night owls.  See y'all in the morning -- if I'm not still exhausted, that is.  In the meantime, here's a few toons (with the first two overheard at a GOP watch party tonight)...