The Day Before Election Day Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is delighted to see marriage equality take another big step forward as we bring you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff examines the past performance of UT/Texas Trib polls in statewide Demorcatic primaries and finds it wanting.

As the Uber rideshare program (and all its politics) comes to Houston, George and Horwitz at Texpatriate take different sides on the issue; one in favor, one against.

After a recent visit to the Natural State, Texas Leftist has discovered that Arkansas' 'private option' alternative to Medicaid expansion is a rousing success. So successful in fact, it seems only natural that dysfunctional GOP politicians would try to kill it. Are they really willing to kick one hundred thousand people (and counting) off of their health plans?

WCNews at Eye on Williamson reminds us that the Texas GOP holds all the power in Texas and therefore Everything That's Wrong with Texas is the Texas GOP's Fault.

It's a good thing that Greg Abbott doesn't comprehend the damage he's doing to his chances to get elected, observes PDiddie at Brains and Eggs. And as long as Abbott continues not getting it, Ted Nugent is going to be the gift that keeps on giving.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wonders why Greg Abbott's campaign publicly endorses Ted Nugent's views.

Neil at All People Have Value posted about the brave and hopeful man who interrupted arguments at the Supreme Court to speak up in opposition to Citizens United. All People Have Value is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

John Coby has Greg Abbott's next apology all ready for him.

The Texas Green Report updates us on the Sierra Club's litigation against industrial polluters.

Offcite looks at your cancer risk in Houston.

The Lunch Tray reports that a growing number of Congressional Republicans are seeking to gut the 2010 Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act.

The Inanity of Sanity mocks the latest video smear attempt by James O'Keefe, this time against Battleground Texas.

TFN Insider awaits an apology to teachers from Dan Patrick and David Dewhurst now that their accusations about CSCOPE have proven to be utterly groundless.

Grits explains again why more security cameras do not equal more security.

Sunday Funnies

Lone Star roundup as early primary voting concludes

-- SOP or a bad portent?

 In person and by mail, 105,508 voters cast ballots at 39 early voting locations throughout (Harris) county during the 11 days of early voting. Of those, 75,400 were Republicans and 30,108 were Democrats. GOP voters typically show up in larger numbers in local primaries, but the gap was particularly pronounced this year.

Lots of work for Democrats to do in order to avoid another 2010-like Red Tea Tide.  ICYMI...

Patricia Kilday Hart (wrote in the Feb.1 Houston) Chronicle that, with only 1.4 million (Texas) voters participating in the GOP primary, as few as half the participants – some roughly 700,000 voters – have selected all statewide officials serving Texas’ 26 million residents in recent years.

“It is a tiny fraction of the population who sets the agenda,” says Steve Munisteri, chairman of the Republican Party of Texas. “It is amazing how much influence you can have if you get involved in politics.”

Update: 700,000 Texans ... roughly the population of El Paso.  Just not nearly the demographic.

-- Meanwhile, Washington is coming to town to use Texas as its ATM again.

President Barack Obama will travel to Houston in April to raise money for House and Senate candidates.

That's according to an invitation to the event obtained by The Associated Press.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California are scheduled to attend. Tickets start at $16,200 a person and go up to $64,800 for a couple. Proceeds benefit the Democratic campaign committees in the House and Senate.

The invitation says the April 9 event will take place at the home of John Eddie Williams, a prominent Texas philanthropist and lawyer, and his wife, Sheridan.

We just read something about John Eddie Williams helping Republicans get elected to the Texas Supreme Court, didn't we?  Hey Charles: when people say Democrats and Republicans are all alike, THIS is what they're talking about, not social issues.  It's Republicans and the Tea Party, of course, that have bigger differences than Ds and Rs.

-- And speaking of Republicans, TeaBaggers, and their social issues...

Calling gay people “sodomites” and U.S. District Judge Orlando Garcia a “would-be dictator,” the Harris County Republican Party announced it will host a news conference Monday morning in response to Garcia’s ruling Wednesday striking down Texas’ bans on same-sex marriage.

The event at county GOP headquarters seems like a pretty obvious ploy to energize the conservative base in advance of Tuesday’s primary — when, among others, Chair Jared Woodfill faces a challenger from within the party.

According to a release sent out Friday afternoon, party workers and elected officials will “stand shoulder to shoulder with people of faith to denounce the lawless ruling of a federal court seeking to impose the whims of unelected judges on the people of Texas.”

Ripe for a harsh loud protest, but it doesn't sound like liberals are going to pass muster.  Too pacifist for me (and why my Green peeps don't like me, either).

-- More evidence comes to light that Texas executed an innocent man.  As far as social issues in Texas go, abolishing the death penalty is going to be last on the list.  Not in my grandchildren's lifetime, and since I don't have any children...

-- Greg Abbott seems a little upset over the fact that his wife was mistaken for a Mexican restaurant.  And I thought marriage in Texas was exclusive between ONE MAN & ONE MAN...

-- The Texas Tribune is going to try to do a little better about disclosing where they get their money.  Isn't that special.

Campaign finance reporting is transparent. Transparency don't feed the bulldog of how much money influences politics when Greg Abbott's raking in more than $30 million and Wendy Davis isn't that far off, for example, and both will surely bust $100 million by the general. They can file their reports with the Texas Ethics Commission and be as transparent as they're supposed to be. They're still trafficking in a gravy train of political money, and if Evan Smith wanted to do something about that at the Trib, he'd write columns calling for public financing of Texas elections at a maximum, and at a minimum, caps on financial contributions on state races.

But, just maybe Smith doesn't want that.  

The undisclosed money in media is just as bad as the undisclosed money in our political system.  Full goddamned motherfucking stop.

A slow-motion self-destruction

And it's all of Greg Abbott's own doing.

The Wendy Davis campaign is slamming both Ted Nugent and Greg Abbott with a powerful new ad that features rape survivor Nicole Anderson.

“I am speaking out because it really bothered me for Greg Abbott to partner with Ted Nugent knowing his history of being a predator. I was at home. I heard about it on the news. It made me feel like the it minimized the fact that Ted Nugent is a predator. I think that it sends the wrong message that he partnered up with this man that is very vocal about liking underage girls. There’s something wrong with that. It’s not okay.”

This ad is important on a couple of different levels. First, it is telling the truth about Ted Nugent. These types of ads should make Republican candidates think twice before they decide to cozy up to, and appear with, a self admitted sexual predator.

Sex with a minor is a felony in Texas. A felony that Ted Nugent has admitted to committing -- frequently -- and is a crime for which there is no statute of limitations.  So why hasn't the top law enforcement officer in Texas prosecuted him for it?

It's probably too late for Abbott to apologize for palling around with a child predator.

Actually, Texans don’t need an apology. They need the top law enforcement officer in the state to do what he has sworn to do — investigate sexual predators, gather all evidence and hold offenders accountable.

Has Greg Abbott investigated Ted Nugent to determine if he has committed sexual acts with underage girls in Texas - a violation of state laws against indecency with a child?

If not, why not?

Perhaps Abbott should turn it over to a special prosecutor, like Terri Moore.

"There is no statute of limitations on second degree felony indecency with a child. If Ted Nugent has engaged in sex with underage girls in Texas at any time, he is subject to prosecution."

"If there has been no legal vetting of Ted Nugent, Texans have no assurance that Nugent has not abused young girls here in our state - a failure of Greg Abbott’s most fundamental duty as a law enforcement official."

"Ted Nugent's public admissions that he has engaged in sexual relations with young girls and had a strong attraction to them would automatically raise concerns with any competent prosecutor."

"If Ted Nugent had been convicted of the crimes he acknowledges, he would be required to register as a sex offender in our State."

Greg Abbott and his army have crossed the Rubicon.

The facts demand a thorough investigation.

THE LAW

-- Indecency with a child by contact is a 2nd degree felony offense in Texas with NO STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS. Those convicted are subject to a punishment of no less than two and no more than twenty years in prison and a fine not to exceed $10,000.

THE EVIDENCE

-- Sufficient evidence exists - including his own videotaped statements - that Ted Nugent regularly engaged in sex with underage girls while touring the country. Musician Courtney Love has recounted that she was only twelve years old when Nugent coerced her to perform oral sex.

THE OPPORTUNITY

-- Ted Nugent currently lives in Texas and during the past three decades, he has appeared here in concert at least 29 times. Nugent has had countless opportunities to sexually abuse young girls in Texas, indulging his admitted compulsion for underage girls, something he has described as "beautiful."

THE RESOURCES

-- Greg Abbott brags that he oversees 160 law enforcement officers and a special Cyber Crimes Unit committed to tracking down and prosecuting child predators. There is no indication that any of these resources have been used to investigate Ted Nugent, a self-confessed sexual predator.

Without such an investigation, there is no way of knowing whether Nugent has violated state law — or still poses an ongoing threat to young girls in Texas.

You don't suppose that, if Greg Abbott keeps trying to ignore this, it might get worse for him... do you?  And not as in 'losing an election' worse, but 'being prosecuted yourself' worse?

Putting the wood to the TexTrib

James Moore isn't done beating Evan Smith and the Texas Tribune down, but here he turns the paddle over to the former Houston Chronicle writer R.G. Ratcliffe.  Yes, it's their polling.

During the course of my journalism career, I wrote about dozens – if not hundreds – of political surveys. The poll is to a political reporter what the tout sheet is to a horse-race junkie. From the perspective of having watched the sausage made, I can tell you all political polls have about them an element of voodoo.

But the opt-in Internet survey methodology used by the U.T. pollsters and the Texas Tribune may be one of the most black magic of all the polling methods. It essentially uses people who have volunteered to be surveyed and then uses statistical weighting to make the results match the expected voter turnout. (Click here to see About These Polls). It’s a survey methodology so suspect that news organizations such as The New York Times, The Washington Post and Roll Call magazine have refused to use it.

Ratcliffe discounts the effect of Nugentpalooza, which erupted after the poll was conducted.  I think that's a gloss-over, as the poll would thus only reflect the brouhaha over Wendy Davis' resume'.  But anyway...

The biggest problem with the U.T./Tribune poll was not when it was done but how it was done. The opt-in survey is fast and cheap and may only be more reliable than one of those television station click surveys because a trained professional political scientist is weighting the results.

(Click here to see the Sampling and Weighting Methodology for the February 2014 Texas Statewide Study. Keep in mind, they say there is a YouGov panel of 20,000 Texans registered, and 1,327 opted to take the survey and then they winnowed that down to 1,200 to create the final dataset. Here’s some key numbers to keep in mind, the Republican primary results were drawn from a panel of 543 voters while the Democratic primary numbers were drawn from a panel of 381.

I'm one of those YouGov surveys.  Actually I am two of them, as I have two separate e-mails and accounts with YouGov.  (But they might have, as Ratcliffe indicates, screened me out.)  You can finish reading the rest of that piece as Ratcliffe dissects the polling methodology and assembles a list of  the various media who refuse to use anything similar.

Let's move on to Carl Lindemann's Inanity of Sanity, where he destroys the whole "donation media" model, particularly as practiced by the TexTrib, PBS (Part II) and NPR (Part I).

Is this entertainment or infotainment? Does this really rate as public journalism serving the PUBLIC INTEREST? Or is PBS, as David Sirota recently wrote, "becoming the "Plutocrats Broadcasting Service"?

Now, this isn't an isolated instance on NEWSHOUR. About two weeks ago, a feature about the union vote at the VW plant in Tennessee fit the same pattern -- a "debate" between a legit source and a Koch-connected State Policy Network propagandist. The propagandist didn't really have an argument. Instead, he spouted an "anti-union feeling masquerading as an argument." Yes, he actually got called out on this -- but not by the moderator.

Do such "contests" in the "marketplace of ideas" help inform us in matters of public interest? Recently, (Ray) Suarez bailed from NEWSHOUR. Maybe he got sick of this charade.

Looking at PBS' flagship news program is especially interesting when considering the Trib; Smith serves on its board of directors. Also, as I've written before, his "confrontational" interview style delivers mild discomfort rather than a moment of truth.

Is this how to "speak truth to power" -- or to cozy up to it?

I don't really think any of this criticism is going to bother the TexTrib all that much... unless their donations begin to wither. And I don't really see that happening.  It IS going to make those of us who read it do so with a far more jaundiced eye, and to that extent I suppose it's worthwhile.

The bloom is definitely off Evan Smith's rose.

Update (March 3): Nobody can deconstruct a lousy poll like Charles Kuffner.  God love him just for reading that Jim Henson defense all the way through; once I got to the "Democratic peanut gallery" crack, I stopped.  And Carl has pinned on his badge and is on the beat.

"I've never signed a Father's Day card, either"

I've spent a lot of this month complaining about things on and off the blog, so when I read this -- and having lost my own Dad just a few months ago -- I had to take a moment and catch myself.

On Father’s Day last June, President Barack Obama welcomed 14 teenagers sporting black-and-white T-shirts that read “BAM” into the Oval Office.

The letters stood not for the nickname occasionally slapped on the president by big-city tabloids, but for “Becoming a Man,” a program run by a Chicago nonprofit working with at-risk youth in the public schools. The president had met the group of young black men once before, when he dropped by one of BAM’s hourlong group discussion sessions at Hyde Park Academy High School last February. He’d pulled up a chair and sat in the boys’ circle that day, talking with them so long about their lives his aides worried he would blow up his carefully planned schedule during his visit to the city.

Now they were meeting again, teenagers from the South Side of Chicago and the president who began his organizing career not far from where they lived. It had already been an emotionally powerful trip for the boys, only two of whom had ever been on a plane before. Now here they were visiting with the most powerful man in the world in the inner sanctum of the Oval Office.

As the teens gathered around the president, one handed him a green and gold Father’s Day card, which all the boys had signed. They had gone out and purchased it the day before, unbeknown to their counselor, Marshaun Bacon, who traveled with them to the White House.

“I never signed a Father’s Day card before,” the young man explained as the president opened the card. “I’ve never signed a Father’s Day card, either,” Obama replied, according to an aide, improbably closing the distance between the Chicago teens and the American president. 

I haven't been a fan of many of the President's policies (the drones, the warrantless wiretapping, the capitulation on the public option) for a long time.  But what he has endured from the "you lie" Republicans in Congress, the vermin who have cried "birth certificate" and Fast and Furious" and "Benghazi" -- and all the rest of the nothingburgers consumed by the vilest of conservatives calling themselves 'patriots' -- has been the single worst social development in American society over the past five years.

Barack Obama continues to set a positive example for many Americans whom the right actually don't consider people.  If you needed more proof of what's gone off the rails during his presidency, then the racists, misogynists, and cold-ass capitalists who keep bleating their daily bullshit will be certain to provide one for you in just a few minutes.

I once worked with a fellow (it's been about thirty years ago now) who had never known his father, but had been told by his mother that the man drove a Schwan truck in town.  So every time he saw a Schwan truck making the rounds, he would pull the guy over in hopes of meeting his dad.  As far as I know, he never found him.

My biggest complaint compared to that is that I won't ever sign a Father's Day card again.  Pretty small potatoes, relatively.

The only real thing I have learned in my half-century-plus on this mudball is that if you aren't making a difference in children's lives -- that would be yours and someone else's, for the record -- then you're not making much of a difference, no matter how often you go to church, no matter how fat the size of your bank account.  And the children whose lives need difference-making the most are the ones who started off with the least.

Find some of those kids and see if you can make a difference in their lives.  Just a suggestion. The reality is that we have so many awful issues and challenges as a country that are going to take a long time to solve.  But something like this?  We can start where we are today.

Kissing Cowboys

... and Cowgirls.  A long, winding road remains ahead, but there is cause for celebration today.

Gay rights supporters cheered a federal judge’s decision in Texas on Wednesday to strike down the Lone Star state’s same-sex marriage ban — with shouts of “Kissing Cowboys!” and “I am proud to be a Texan” — in what one described as a “landmark day" in the bid for lesbians and gay men to wed.

Their opponents, meanwhile, vowed to keep up the fight in what they called an "epic battle."

The decision by U.S. District Judge Orlando Garcia in San Antonio is stayed pending an appeal by the state. Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott said he will do so, meaning the case will go before the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, which has a similar lawsuit before it from Oklahoma.

Texas is the seventh state to nullify these discriminatory laws since the SCOTUS overturned DOMA in June of last year.  Seventeen states plus the District of Columbia currently recognize gay marriage, including eight states where it became legal in 2013.

Greg Abbott will appeal to the Fifth Circuit, and assuming he loses again there, will roll on to the Supreme Court, along with the other states who cannot stand the thought of marriage equality.  But the funniest thing was this.

Opponents also noted their displeasure in the tweetosphere, but one, State Sen. Dan Patrick, a conservative Republican, apparently tweeted too fast — posting, "MARRIAGE= ONE MAN & ONE MAN," before changing it to "MARRIAGE= ONE MAN & ONE WOMAN. Enough of these activist judges. FAVORITE if you agree. I know the silent majority out there is with us!"

In #txlege news, safe to say that no one saw this tweet coming: pic.twitter.com/e9fGsWIupf
— Reeve Hamilton (@reevehamilton) February 26, 2014

Just knowing that the Abbotts and Patricks of Texas are feeling it getting crammed down their throats again is enough to warm my heart.

It's good that they don't get it

Welcome to a carefully-staged and choreographed visit to the second-most conservative city in America: Lubbock, Texas. Greg Abbott’s visit was a movie set, a Potemkin village where the façade is designed to fool the populace, rather than inform.

His first words to the crowd were typical Abbott braggadocio. He touted his thirty lawsuits against the federal government. We’ve heard this before and I’m certain we will hear it again: "I go into the office, I sue the federal government, and then I go home." And the crowd goes wild…

This is better than not disavowing Ted Nugent, much better not apologizing for calling South Texas a third-world country.  This isn't a tailspin, it's a kamikaze.  This is doubling down on a losing streak.  This is Mitt Romney in a swanky ballroom complaining to the .1 of the 1% about the 47%.

What I’m wondering is this: Did someone in the crowd ask the question, “How much money did your thirty lawsuits cost the Texas taxpayers?”

Apparently, no one asked, so I’ll answer. According to various reports, the costs of Greg Abbott’s litigations against America are estimated at $2.58 million dollars, and that’s with over half of the lawsuits still pending. Think of what Texas could have accomplished with $2.58 million dollars: More education funding, important infrastructure repair, expanding Medicaid or compensating for the SNAP cuts by the illustrious GOP lawmakers in Congress?

It took $2.58 million to satisfy Abbott’s chest-beating contest with our government with zero dollars benefit for the people of Texas. Because of his continued feud with Washington, Abbott’s been elevated to cult status with the secessionists and the states’ rights fringe.  

Carol Morgan, author of these excerpts, is just killing it.  One of the best things about that TexTrib poll coming out before Nugentpalooza is that Abbott is still coasting.  The only work he's doing isn't suing Barack Obama, it's dialing for $100,000 checks.  And he can knock that shit out in less than an hour.

The only thing missing from Greg Abbott’s traveling show today was his brother-in-arms, Ted Nugent. Of course, the Abbott campaign realized their mistake earlier in the week, admitting it was nothing more than a clever political strategy and adding that they “meant to do it”. And Greg Abbott? He remarked, “I never look back.”

Wayne Slater also pointed out recently that the TXGOP has met the enemy, and it is them.  Chris Ladd, aka GOPlifer, is one of the very few Republicans who get it on Nugent.  More on that in a minute, because Carol is on a roll.

When Austin enacted water rationing last year, Greg Abbott drilled his own personal well at his residence to keep his lawn green, thereby circumventing the law that the little people had to follow.

In the twelve years he’s been in office, he’s aided and abetted those who’ve damaged the credibility of election funding (just in case, you’ve forgotten the names John Colyandro and Tom Delay). I suppose Texas voters have forgotten about 2006 when Abbott’s office illegally seized court records from a federal storage facility without consulting the presiding judge (and then “lost” the evidence).

Perhaps voters forgot how he used state-owned money, equipment and staff for his political campaign. Or perhaps they forget Abbott’s history with public education. No matter what he claims, he’s never been a champion of public education. In 2011, he fought with Representative Lloyd Doggett over the $830 millions’ worth of federal money for Texas education. He was a part of the heartless cabal that cut $5.4 billion dollars from education that caused educators to lose their jobs and school districts to slash budgets resulting in teacher’s serving as school janitors and some smaller districts were forced to eliminate sports altogether, the social lifeblood of rural Texas communities.

This is every bit of the opposition research Wendy Davis needs (much of it previously compiled, in a tip of the cap, by her guru Matt Angle at the Lone Star Project).  The archives here are full of similar posts.

Both Greg Abbott and the Texas GOP constantly remind all of us of the “Texas Miracle”, but that miracle is merely a sleight-of-hand trick. The policies of the Texas GOP are not responsible for Texas’ growth. It’s Texas’ abundant natural resources in oil and gas which has allowed Texas to attract 1000 new residents each day. And with oil spills, Abbott’s duels with the EPA, and hydraulic fracturing, who knows how long the “Texas Miracle” will last.

Even with the good news, Texas has a laundry list of dishonorable mentions on which Abbott remains silent:

• Texas ranks first in executions.
• Texas ranks first in the number of uninsured.
• Texas ranks first in the amount of carbon dioxide emissions.
• Texas ranks first in the amount of toxic chemicals released into water.
• Texas ranks second in food insecurity.
• Texas ranks fourth in the percentage of children living in poverty.
• Texas ranks 47th in tax expenditures that directly benefit Texas citizens.
• Texas ranks 48th in the number of people covered by employer-based health insurance.
• Texas ranks 49th in the number of poor people covered by Medicaid and per capita Medicaid spending.
• Texas ranks 49th in the national average for credit score.
• Texas ranks 50th in the percentage of the population which graduates from high school.
• Texas ranks 50th in Workers’ compensation coverage.
• Texas ranks 50th in the percentage of non-elderly women with health insurance and in the percentage of women receiving prenatal care in the first trimester.
• Texas ranks 50th in mental health expenditures.
• Texas was labeled by the Annie E. Casey Foundation as "the worst state in America to be a child." 

And the coup de grâce...

Far be it from me to rain on Greg Abbott’s lawsuit-pride-parade, but it seems his time would be better spent addressing how he would change these negative statistics, instead of taking credit for things that never happened on his watch.

Greg Abbott has been the Texas Attorney General for twelve years. Unfortunately, in the span of twelve years, it’s easy to forget. I hope you don’t forget when you go to the polls. Texans can’t possibly endure another single year of Greg Abbott.

Carol Morgan is correct, of course; Texans have short memories and even shorter attention spans.  But Texas Republican primary voters are primal and ignorant, and Chris Ladd understands why they are so easily motivated by fear.

Calling out Nugent’s racism is not as important as recognizing where it comes from. As long as Republicans are satisfied living on steady diet of high-calorie, low-fact fear, the country will continue to limp forward. Global capitalism is a complex gift that our ancestors bled to deliver to for us. It is bringing freedom and prosperity we never imagined. It is bringing demands for management and regulation we did not anticipate.

Freedom is forcing us to accept differences in other people that some people find scary. The structural demands of capitalism are forcing us to use government in ways we had not thought necessary. Preserving liberty, humanity, and peace in such a dynamic world will require intelligence, but most of all it will demand courage.

Ted Nugent is a symbol of cowardice. He displays it in his personal life and it soaks every aspect of his public persona. No one with a reasonably secure mind needs to wave guns around. As a party we have to decide whether we still believe in America, whether we still believe in freedom, and whether we still believe in ourselves.

I'd have to say that's a 'no', Chris.  But I only say that because I have observed this animal up close for a couple of decades now.

Honestly, it's a good thing that Greg Abbott doesn't get it.  Because if he were clued in, he'd be worried.  This arrogant ignorance is Wendy Davis' best shot at beating him.

Update: Jay Root at the TexTrib has more on the Nugent effect.

“There are plenty of figures on the Republican right you could use without generating this kind of blowback,” said University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato. “Everyone knows the guy is nuts. Why would you let your candidate do that?”

It's a decent question — and one that is met with derision and eye-rolling from the highest levels of the Abbott campaign.

A day after the rocker helped turn out voters for Abbott in North Texas last week, a senior Abbott campaign official was asked who had the bright idea of bringing the controversial rocker onto the campaign trail.

There was no hesitation.

“It worked, didn’t it?” he said.

Yep.  It's still working, too.

"Ashamed of Texas" roundup

-- How to make winning Republican TV ads in Texas.  If you aren't ashamed of being from Texas after reading and watching this, then you're a TeaBagging GOP primary voter with poor spelling and grammatical skills.  But I repeat myself.

-- Dan Patrick denies that a hand-written letter, produced by the man whom he hired years ago and was undocumented at the time, is written in his hand.  This sordid display of renouncing one's previous compassion (WWJD?) is embarrassing enough for most Texans, but it still probably won't keep Patrick out of the runoff in his race.

Just to review: Dan Patrick is ashamed he once helped an immigrant, while Greg Abbott has no shame about standing with a pants-crapping, draft-dodging, virulently racist and sexist child predator.  And those two will probably be the governor and lt. governor candidates for the Republicans in November.

-- The Texas Observer has a worthy down-ballot aggregate.  It includes Debbie 'Terror Anchor Babies' Riddle, the 'my God can beat up your God' war between Baptists and Methodists in Tarrant County, and US Senate also-ran Chris Mapp, who despite calling the president a SOB and saying that "wetbacks" ought to be shot, can't get any traction in a primary race that includes Steve Stockman.  Oh, and Pete Sessions' Tea Party challenger, Katrina Pierson, is also toast.  It wasn't the Sarah Palin endorsement that finished her off, but the fact that she was once on unemployment.

-- Don Imus has endorsed Kinky Friedman for ag commissioner.  Does more need to be said?  Is that a brainer?

-- Last, the Texas Tribune, essentially the only news organization left covering the Lege and Texas politics, continues to be assaulted by people besides James Moore.  And yes, Evan Smith is a giant schmuck.  Everyone knows this.

The TexTrib is an embarrassment to media, and Evan Smith does blow goats... but they are all Texas has left for political insight, so I suppose I'll try to be a little nicer to them than some others.  Sorry, Evan: after that argument we had on the phone a few years ago about your polling -- you remember? you were banging pots and pans around in the background -- and my blog disappeared from your roll, you lost out on any donations from me.

You seem to be doing OK without them, though.  Good for you.

Hyperventilating over Kesha Rogers

There's a lot of that going on in the the blogosphere and social media this morning as a result of yesterday's poll results.  This is one of those times when the disconnect among the various caucuses in the Texas Democratic Party is painfully on display.

Black people vote for their own, y'all.  How many different ways does it need to be said?  How many times does it have to happen before y'all get it?

There's an extensive network of African American e-mail listservs (locally, D-MARS has one, Carroll Robinson has started another called Texas Politica, there are several others I'm not a member of) and they focus on their community's news.  They talk about the issues that aren't getting talked about anywhere else.  If you aren't on these lists or aren't reading the email you get from them, then you don't know these things.

Kesha Rogers is benefiting from the fact that there are no other African Americans at the top of the Texas ballot (and no, I'm not including Steve Brown at Railroad Commissioner because that's a down-ballot race).  She has by far the highest name recognition among the four US Senate hopefuls.  She has been on the ballot in Fort Bend County a couple of times, was the nominee for the Dems against Pete Olsen in 2010, she ran for chair of the Texas Democratic Party in 2006.  There's been lots of news online about her over the years.

I mean to say lots and lots of news stories about Kesha Rogers over the years, nearly none of it favorable.  What's that someone said about all publicity being good?  This same lack of understanding about what's really going on is also present in the Lloyd Oliver campaign for Harris County district attorney.  There are plenty of people who know why he won the nomination two years ago, and why he's campaigning the same way as he did two years ago.  It seems as if a whole bunch of insider Democratic Caucasians are the ones most confused about this.

Trust me when I say -- as a middle-aged white guy, mind you -- that black Democrats in Texas know exactly who Kesha Rogers is.  And if the TexTrib has properly sampled black Dems (not oversampled them) in their polling... then the results shouldn't be all that surprising to anyone.

You don't have to like it, but there it is.  In black and white.

Update:  Splitting the black caucus from the GLBTQ caucus is something some white folks know how to do.

Not the last word on Nuge

The national media finally caught up with the past week's story over the weekend (and to start the week).  Progress Texas has a good roundup.  But the last word, for now, goes to the DMN's Tod Robberson.

My guess is that Davis will not suffer long-term damage from relatively minor misstatements regarding her background. But Abbott did himself some serious damage by attaching himself to Nugent, a man who cannot seem to control his mouth and has a penchant for making racist and sexist remarks. There is also, of course, his background of affairs with underage girls and his days as a draft dodger during the Vietnam War. It’s beyond me why Abbott would see Ted Nugent as an admirable figure who would be an asset to his campaign.

But since Abbott hasn’t issued a statement of regret, I guess he’s still OK with the decision. Which means he not only demonstrates bad judgment unworthy of a leading gubernatorial candidate but also lacks the perspective of someone who knows when to stop fighting a losing battle. That’s the kind of hubris that just screams for a humiliating defeat.

Abbott's refusal to distance himself from Nugent is a tremendous, enormous mistake; maybe the biggest one he will make during the entire campaign.  Davis must tar and feather him with the child predator's slurs, and she must do so repeatedly, all the way to November.  How effective she is in pasting Ted Nugent to Greg Abbott will all but determine whether her contest is winnable in the fall.  If she lets it fade into the background...

There remains a huge well of free media still to earn (because Nugent keeps running his vile mouth publicly, and will go on doing so), and the continuing narrative helps Davis significantly with moderates and independents (precisely who she needs voting for her in order to win).  Most importantly, the episode cuts right to heart of Abbott's weakest link: his judgment and his character.

Nugent is a gift that is going to keep on giving, and you don't get too many of those in politics.

UT/TexTrib poll has Kesha Rogers leading the field in Dem US Senate primary

There aren't any other huge surprises in this (historically unreliable) data.

In the Democratic primary, the candidate who has been on the ballot the most times, Kesha Rogers, leads the best-financed candidate, David Alameel, 35 percent to 27 percent. Maxey Scherr had 15 percent, followed by Harry Kim at 14 percent and Michael Fjetland at 9 percent. Voters are largely unfamiliar with those candidates; 74 percent initially expressed no opinion before being asked how they would vote if they had to decide now.

“This is what it looks like when you have a bunch of candidates, no infrastructure and no money,” (polling co-director Jim) Henson said. “The first person to raise some money and run some ads could really move this.”

I think Henson has that accurate; Alameel's voluminous mailings and TV ads should get him into the lead by the time all the votes are counted.  But I warned a couple of my EVBB friends week before last that I feared an Alameel/Rogers runoff, and now it looks like I'm left to hope that the TexTrib's polling lives up to its comically bad reputation.  However there's greater confidence to be found in their other numbers...

-- Abbott 47, Davis 36, Don't know 17.  About right, I would say.  Update: And yes, it is worth noting that this poll concluded before the Ted Nugent crap exploded (pun intended), so the effect of the most significant development of the entire campaign is not reflected here.

-- Cornyn 62, Stockman 16, everybody else in single digits that total 15.  Also about right, and in defiance of what was released last week (somebody is awfully wrong, that's for sure).  The Conservative News distribution probably doesn't save Stockman, either.

-- Dewhurst 37, Patrick 31, Staples, 17, Patterson 15.  Nothing to quarrel over here, either.  Remains to be seen whether Patrick's Ill Eagle flap hurts him; that news also broke after the poll concluded.  But if something like these numbers hold, Dewhurst is toast in the runoff.  Let's note this also.

The Republican nominee will face state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, who is unopposed in her primary. Van de Putte lagged behind each of the four Republicans in hypothetical general election matchups, trailing Dewhurst 44 percent to 32 percent, Patrick 41 percent to 32 percent, Staples 41 percent to 29 percent, and Patterson 41 percent to 30 percent. Undecided voters made up the difference in each race.

That seems like a sensible set of figures for late February, too.  The only other result that so much as raises my eyebrow is Tea Party queen Debra Medina laying waste to the well-funded men in the R comptroller race.

There's going to be some crying at Glenn Hegar's watch party on Election Night.  Hope he doesn't feel the urge to have to shoot anything.

Update: Socratic Gadfly with more on what this might mean for the Green Party Senate candidate, who also needs some free media but isn't well-positioned to take advantage of the publicity.  And Charles breaks things down as well.