KHOU poll is more bad news for Hall

Annise Parker's challenger can only hope that his supporters have been seriously undersampled.

Annise Parker seems headed for a runoff in her campaign to keep her job, but she commands more than twice as many supporters as her leading challenger in a newly released poll commissioned by KHOU 11 News and KUHF – Houston Public Radio.

Still, just six weeks before Election Day, roughly half of all surveyed voters either didn’t know or wouldn’t say how they’re going to vote.

Parker leads the pack of candidates at 34 percent, with former city attorney Ben Hall at 14 percent. About 48 percent of voters are classified as undecided, indicating the incumbent mayor will have to fight to keep the post to which she was narrowly re-elected two years ago.

“I don’t see the mayor losing this race,” said Bob Stein, the KHOU political analyst who conducted the survey. “I’m not certain she’ll win it in the general election, like she did in 2011. But the mayor, who tends to get high marks as a mayor, simply doesn’t get what I’d call great public support as a candidate.”

Stein has it right.  It's possible that Hall can shore himself up a little in the next seven weeks, but only enough to force the mayor into a runoff.  More Stein...

“(Hall) expects to bring out a large number of African-American voters and win 80, 90 percent of that. Doesn’t seem to be working. Turnout may be a little bit higher among African-American voters, but he’s only winning 29 percent of the African-American vote, to the mayor’s 24 percent.”

Meanwhile, Parker garners 27 percent of Anglo Republican voters’ support compared to Hall’s 11 percent.

The biggest surprise in this polling is that the mayor is getting the Republican votes, and she isn't losing the black votes by enough to make a difference.  Actually it's not that surprising; Hall is just a terrible candidate with an even worse campaign.  And  'delusional' isn't helping.

"These numbers show what we hear every day: Ms. Parker's tenure has been repudiated by the people of Houston and she will not be re-elected as the next mayor," (Hall campaign spokesperson Julie Smekalina) said. "As Houstonians are beginning to see the vision Ben Hall has set forth, they are rallying behind his ideas for the city's future. The grass-roots momentum that we see supporting Ben's candidacy is growing and will secure his election as mayor."

You have to be on LSD to see that.   I'll go out on a very thin limb and say that a runoff is still possible.  But with numbers like these for the campaign operatives to spin, it's growing unlikely for Ben Hall.

If you're one of that 48% who haven't decided whom to vote for, go out to one of the forums on this schedule and see what the candidates have to say.

Mike Morris at the HouChron, KUHF (which conducted the poll with the TV station), Dos Centavos and Texpatriate also weigh in.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is thoroughly enjoying some Republican slapstick comedy as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff implores Sen. Leticia Van de Putte to run for lieutenant governor.  One look at the group vying for the GOP nomination shows how much Democrats need her on their ticket.

Eye On Williamson is having some technical difficulties, and hopes to be back next week.

Texas Leftist takes an early look at Annise Parker's political legacy as mayor of Houston, and why lacking a third term isn't the only reason it seems incomplete.  Also, we remember some wisdom from Ann Richards on why Texas Democrats are different.

Once PDiddie at Brains and Eggs declared this year's municipal election season in Houston "the most boring ever", things started to pick up a bit.

Horwitz at Texpatriate discusses the controversy that has arisen in a Houston city council election after one leading candidate allegedly made some unspeakably offensive comments.

Over at TexasKaos, Libby Shaw explains that cravenness hasn't gone out of style, no sir. Check out More of the Same. Cruel, Crazy and Craven.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

John Coby has some advice for David Dewhurst.

The Great God Pan Is Dead showcases an excellent graphical guide to the insurance exchanges.

Better Texas Blog covers young adults and the insurance marketplace.

Texas Living Waters Project calls out Lite Guv candidate Jerry Patterson for his ignorant remarks about endangered species.

Nonesequiteuse has an action item for everyone who believes in reproductive justice.

Prairie Weather examines the link between Obamacare and ego.

TFN Insider reminds us why Don McLeroy should never be allowed near a textbook.

Sunday Funnies

"If you define 'mass shootings' as four or more people getting shot at one time, we've had nearly 250 so far this year. We've only had 260 days! Our mass shooting average is 96 percent. Our mass shooting scores shouldn't be that much higher than our math and science scores. There have been more mass-shooting days than Jewish holidays---and there are a shitload of Jewish holidays."

-- Jon Stewart

Paula Deen was a big butterball of emotion today during her first public appearance since settling the racial discrimination lawsuit that destroyed her career ... and we've got the pics.

Paula appeared in Houston, Texas for the Metro Cooking and Entertainment Show to mark her return ... and got choked up after receiving a standing ovation when she hit the stage.

The 66-year old chef told the crowd she had been wanting her return to take place in Texas all along ... and was just shedding tears of joy.

Down-ballot Democratic prospects, updated

Kolten Parker at the HouChron, behind the paywall, makes the case I made a month ago that everything blue for 2014 hinges on that certain someone.  And also reminds us that even state Sen. Leticia Van De Putte's presumptive bid for lieutenant governor depends on what Wendy does.

But he also names a few new (to me) names as potential statewides.

State Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, said he is considering a run for attorney general.

"Politics is about timing," Uresti said. "And I certainly think it's the right time for the Democratic Party, and for myself as well."

Other candidates being courted by Democrats to make the leap are state Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, who has more than $1 million in his campaign account, state Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas and state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin. None returned calls for comment.

Uresti does not stand for re-election to the state senate until 2016.  But West and Watson -- like Davis herself -- are up in 2014, which is to say that they must relinquish thier seats to run for higher office.  The same, of course, for Rep. Anchia (because the House terms are two years).

I am still hoping Sen. Rodney Ellis will run for something -- perhaps against John Cornyn? -- as he does not have to run for re-election in 2014, has the ability to fund a campaign himself, and brings much-needed diversity to the ticket.

So add those names to the 'definitely maybe' category.  Besides the potential team of Davis and VDP at the top, Texas Democrats today have two declareds: Houston businessman Mike Collier running for state comptroller, and former El Paso mayor John Cook standing for GLO.

Anybody know anything else?  A juicy rumor, perhaps?

Update: Go read Socratic Gadfly's observations in the comments -- and an expanded version at his shop -- about West, and by extension, Ellis.  As Texpate reminds, Raffi Anchia stated in June that he was focusing on re-election to the House (and not a Dallas mayoral bid).  So the list of rumored candidate prospects is still barely enough to qualify as a decent rumor.