"If you run for governor, I'll kill ya."

Caption attributable to either man.

Attorney General Greg Abbott doesn't want to talk about whether he's seeking the governorship, but he is in overdrive on all the issues that make him a leading contender for the GOP nod, even if Gov. Rick Perry runs for re-election.

I would like to see a contested gubernatorial primary, but my instinct is that Rick Perry is going to make another run for president in 3.9 years. No reason he can't do both, of course.

It appears Abbott is determined not to prod the competitive Perry into running for re-election to show he can beat him the way he did then-U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2010 — a comparison Perry was quick to make when a TV station asked him about word that Abbott was telling donors he was aiming at the top job.

“I've been underestimated many times before,” Perry told Austin television station KVUE.

Perry, who's leaving the door open to a re-election run in 2014 and another White House bid in 2016, plans to disclose his plans in June, after the regular legislative session ends.

Abbott has multiple options as well.

“Everything is pure speculation until this summer, but I can envision virtually no scenario where Perry and Abbott face off against each other,” said lobbyist Ray Sullivan, Perry's former gubernatorial chief of staff and his former presidential campaign communications director.

Sullivan cited the men's friendship, similar philosophies and partnership on policy.

Some think Perry will decide not to run; others say that if Perry runs, Abbott will aim instead for lieutenant governor.

“There are a myriad of possibilities,” Sullivan said.

GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak also considers it more likely that the two will find a way to avoid a contest.

“Someone told me once if Abbott was smart, he would go find Rick a job,” Mackowiak said.

Heh heh huh huh, chuckled Beavis. But what do the most important people say... you know, the ones who write the fat checks?

What major donors decide will be key, said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones, who suggested they might think it's better for the party's future to ease out Perry.

[...]

Among GOP donors, many are giving to both Perry and Abbott, though others are not.
Of the 42 largest donors to the two candidates in 2012 — those who gave more than $50,000 to Perry, to Abbott or to the two combined — 26 gave to both, according to an analysis by Texans for Public Justice, which tracks money in politics. Of the rest, one gave no money to Abbott, and 15 didn't donate to Perry.

Nearly $5 million of the combined 2012 donations to Abbott and Perry came from these donors, with nearly $2 million to Perry and nearly $3 million to Abbott.

Wouldn't a faceoff between the two be in the interests of the corporate media, for all the advertising revenue they have become increasingly dependent upon? Not to mention the political advisors holding targeted mail lists for donors and voters.

We are, of course, already aware of this financial windfall locally in the SD-6 special election... and now the runoff. It's going to be a good two-year cycle for the people who make their living consulting politicians on their campaigns. It's already off to a great start.

Update: Rick Perry: "Greg Abbott won't run for governor against me"

In an exclusive interview with Gov. Rick Perry on Wednesday, he said Attorney General Greg Abbott has told him he won't run against him in next year's GOP primary should the incumbent seek reelection.

A spokesman for Abbott's campaign issued a statement saying he wasn't familiar with any such deal, and called any speculation about the attorney general's political future "unproductive."

One takeaway from yesterday

Via KHOU.

Even some of Alvarado’s closest political allies privately concede defeating Garcia will be difficult, especially after trailing in this weekend’s election. Garcia’s lead in the general election will help her attract campaign funds from contributors hoping to buy favor with the next state senator. 

Charles has more if you need it. Has anyone calculated the per-vote expense for the two runoff participants yet?

Sunday Funnies

“President Obama’s inaugural parade (featured) eight floats, including a Hawaii float to honor his birthplace, an Illinois float to honor the first lady’s home state, and a Kenyan float just to mess with Republicans.”

-- Jimmy Fallon

"Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant on Wednesday asked state legislatures to declare President Obama's new gun control proposals 'illegal.' Though I'm not sure if the Mississippi state legislature has that kind of power since it's just thirty hissing possums in a barn." 

-- Seth Meyers

Speaking of torture...

"Yes, lip-gate. Beyonce-gate. The crisis in Lip-ya. Beyonc-gazi ... If Beyonce lip-synced at Obama's inaugural, do you know what that means? If so, please write in because I'd love to know why I'm so angry!"

-- Stephen Colbert

"Rick Perry said Obama's suggestions for gun control disgust him. He said the real answer to this problem isn't laws, it's prayer. I know you're not supposed to say this about elected officials, but I would pay to see Rick Perry defend himself against a school shooter with prayer." 

-- Bill Maher

 "I guess that's just a crazy fantasy, Rick Perry in a school." 

-- Bill Maher

Results for SD-6 *updates*

7:20 pm: Here are the candidate tallies for the early voting period of the Senate District 6 special election today, as reported at last by the Harris County Clerk.

Sylvia Garcia - 49.19%
Carol Alvarado - 41.65
RW Bray - 3.8
Dorothy Olmos - 1.77
Rodolfo 'Rudy' Reyes - 0.72
Joaquin Martinez - 2.25
Susan Delgado - 0.29
Maria Selva - 0.34

The only question is whether Garcia can avoid a runoff. This was her stated intention, going all the way back at least as far as our blogger's luncheon in December.

Update:

If a runoff election is necessary, when it occurs would depend heavily on what Gov. Rick Perry decides. Harris County elections officials have 10 days to canvass Election Day results, while Perry’s office has 14, according to the Secretary of State. The governor’s canvass can’t take place until the county finishes its canvass, and the governor has five days after his canvass to order the runoff election. The runoff would have to be set on a date between the 12^th and 25^th day after Perry ordered it, and it must take place on a Tuesday or a Saturday.

Update (8:05 pm): With another 1200 votes counted, a runoff looks more likely.

Sylvia Garcia - 47.87%
Carol Alvarado - 42.08
RW Bray - 4.45
Dorothy Olmos - 1.96
Rodolfo 'Rudy' Reyes - 0.73
Joaquin Martinez - 2.27
Susan Delgado - 0.29
Maria Selva - 0.35

Update (8:30 pm): With 79% of precincts in --178 of 226 -- and 14,419 votes counted, the race tightens slightly again. About 650 votes separate the top two.

Sylvia Garcia - 45.99%
Carol Alvarado - 41.9
RW Bray - 5.74
Dorothy Olmos - 2.74
Rodolfo 'Rudy' Reyes - 0.83
Joaquin Martinez - 2.44
Susan Delgado - 0.28
Maria Selva - 0.43

Update (8:45 pm): One of the nice things about exceptionally low turnout is an early bedtime for the politicos. 94% of precincts, just under 16,000 votes, and the outcome is all but determined: a runoff between Garcia and Alvarado.

Sylvia Garcia -   45.51%
Carol Alvarado - 41.64

RW Bray - 6.02
Dorothy Olmos - 2.81

Joaquin Martinez - 2.48
Rodolfo 'Rudy' Reyes - 0.78
Maria Selva - 0.46
Susan Delgado - 0.31

#Failibuster

This is the best explanation I can find for what happened yesterday.

Most of the liberals and other normal people in this country are probably really angry at Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for passing up an opportunity to reform the filibuster rules that have turned the U.S. Senate into a tar pit where democracy goes to die.

On Thursday night’s The Rachel Maddow Show, host Rachel Maddow exhaustively detailed all of the times Sen. Reid promised to end the so-called silent filibuster, and to do so with a simple 51-49 majority if necessary. (Yesterday) afternoon, Sen. Reid chickened out, but he had a good reason to. That reason, though, isn’t good enough.

That not equivocal enough for you? Sit tight.

Reid understands that his threat cuts both ways. See, the problem isn’t with changing the filibuster rules, it’s with changing the rules at all with a 51-vote majority, because even if Democrats make a perfectly reasonable rule change using the new Congress loophole, there’s nothing to stop Republicans from going nuts when they retake the majority, and giving themselves the right of primae noctis, or making a rule that all Democrats have to resign. That’s why Harry Reid is not such an idiot for backing away from this threat.

Here’s why Harry Reid is kind of an idiot for backing down: there’s still nothing to stop Republicans from going nuts when they retake the majority, and they will. When Republicans retake the majority, if Harry Reid is still in the Senate, we will see him at a microphone in a Republican-mandated propeller beanie and “I’m With Stupid” t-shirt with the finger pointed up at his face ensemble, complaining about how his learned colleagues have broken with all precedent, and he will not stand for it next time he’s in the majority.

So pick a side, argue it out, and let the justifications/recriminations begin.

My takeaway? This is what people are talking about when they say both parties are the same. Oh... and there's no point in trying to play nice with aggressive, angry lunatics. You have to either subdue them and administer their tranquilizing medication or bust them in the mouth until they chill out.

You do not win anything by compromising with sociopaths. The very compromise itself has the opposite result you were hoping for: you do not come off as reasonable or rational for your moderate, tolerant, cooperative spirit. You appear weak because you negotiated with terrorists.

Instead of presenting oneself as an esteemed diplomat and respected bipartisan leader, you wind up looking like a pussy. One of the many ironies in this lesson is that Hillary Clinton understands this concept clearly.

You must. punch. back. Even when you're not punching at all, but simply adjusting your glasses.

The War and Peace (and Church and Food) Report

-- By my oath as one of the judges sitting on the Early Voting Ballot Board, I will refrain from posting anything regarding the Senate District 6 special election (except maybe someone else's words, and then only if it doesn't advocate for or against a particular candidate). So what that means is you shouldn't be swayed or influenced by me in any way by this.

--  The fact that the ban on women in combat was lifted by the Pentagon yesterday probably has nothing to do with the ass-whipping Hillary Clinton gave John McCain and several other Republicans. I'm sure it was also just a coincidence that it was two women -- one a former foreign service member, the other a Republican -- that called C-Span to clarify things for the Republican senators asking the questions.

I would rather have a world where neither women nor men were sent to fight foreign wars, especially when they are sent to fight them based on long threads of lies by Republican men and women, but this development still qualifies as progress on gender equality.

And it's long past time for this country to promote a woman to the position of Commander-in-Chief as well. I certainly hope that woman isn't also a Republican.

-- The CIA apparently tells Hollywood writers more than they tell the US Senate about torture, targeted assassinations, and exactly where in the world they have agents working, so I suppose we should not be surprised that Senators don't actually know as much as they think.

-- The Catholic Church has attorneys arguing that a fetus is not a person -- despite the dogma from the pulpit that established this commandment in the bible of conservatism -- if said fetus shows up on their ledger as an expense.

This on the heels of information, previously undisclosed, that reveals the depths of the conspiracy within the Los Angeles diocese to protect child-molesting priests from justice.

Newly disclosed internal documents have confirmed the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Los Angeles deliberately hid evidence of child molestation for more than a decade. The now-retired archbishop, Cardinal Roger M. Mahony, and other high-ranking clergy officials made extensive efforts to transfer abusive priests out of state to avoid prosecution and to stop them from confessing to therapists who would have been forced to inform police. The church reached a $660 million settlement with 500 victims in 2007, the largest of any Roman Catholic diocese. In reaching the deal, it spared top church officials from having to testify in court. A Los Angeles judge is set to rule next month on whether two church officials will face new depositions in a civil lawsuit over the abuse.

So I think it's safe to say the Church, just like the GOP, is having another bad week.

Update: the Church won their case based on that argument. In the long run (i.e. future lawsuits challenging Roe -- or restricting women's reproductive freedom -- at the SCOTUS), this might actually be a good thing. Legal precedent and all that.

-- What's on the menu at your local fish house? Pig shit, antibiotics, and a side of diarrhea. Mmmmm. That sounds almost as good as some mercury in my sushi, and a little dab of carcinogens with my Gulf seafood platter.

Think I'll have a salad, thanks. But no GM corn or HFCS dressing, please.

Currently, up to 85 percent of U.S. corn is genetically engineered as are 91 percent of soybeans and 88 percent of cotton (cottonseed oil is often used in food products). According to industry, up to 95% of sugar beets are now GE. It has been estimated that upwards of 70 percent of processed foods on supermarket shelves -- from soda to soup, crackers to condiments -- contain genetically engineered ingredients.

Never mind; I just lost my appetite.

2.9%

Michael Li had it last evening.

Final day of in-person early voting in SD-6 special: 975 votes cast plus 92 mail ballots. Total vote so far-8245 (2.9% of reg). 

It's difficult to see that remaining 20,000 projected voters showing up on Saturday. An abysmally low turnout aids the cause of those with the most name recognition.

Campos has been saying a lot about not saying much.

I’m not going to say much about Carol Alvarado’s opponent sending out their fifth negative mailer attacking Carol that landed in mailboxes last Friday.  That’s five in two weeks.  I can pretty much guarantee that folks won’t get another today.

I’m also not going to say much about “Viva Houston” yesterday.

His candidate couldn't get to the faceoff on Channel 13 because she was busy in Austin. That's worth saying -- or at least spinning. He seems to have conceded the race already.

I have to revise my forecast and bet Garcia and Alvarado, $2 exacta. Perhaps I should go ahead and buy a quinella ticket also. But then they wouldn't call it gambling.