Sylvia Garcia punching down

Sylvia Garcia recently sent out this mail piece to SD-6 residents and voters, and earlier today Houston city councilman James Rodriguez -- a supporter of Carol Alvarado's campaign -- responded to it.

I am disappointed that Sylvia Garcia has decided to take her campaign in a negative direction by questioning Carol Alvarado’s support for an underpass at Harrisburg Boulevard...

At last night’s Senate District 6 Candidates Forum, Ms. Garcia went on to say that “some of the local representatives did not have the guts to stand” with the community in supporting an underpass.

Let me set the record straight.  In a letter dated July 30, 2008 to then-Metro CEO Frank Wilson, Ms. Garcia said “I support the concept of a bridge or underpass at the Union Pacific grade crossing,” on Harrisburg Boulevard. 

Let me further set the record straight.  Several elected officials including myself, Mayor Annise Parker, and Council Members Melissa Noriega and Ed Gonzalez worked with the community to find  the funding to pay for the underpass.  Ms. Garcia never attended any of the meetings on seeking a solution.  In fact, at a community forum in February of 2009, Ms. Garcia was asked if she would contribute to the funding of the underpass from her Precinct 2 Commissioner’s Road and Bridge Fund.  She declined.

Thanks to the Mayor’s leadership and the leadership of my colleagues, we were able to secure funding for the underpass including $10 million in Capital Improvement Plan dollars from District I.

Carol Alvarado worked with the community and made sure Metro heard their concerns.  Ms. Garcia supported the concept of a bridge, was a no-show during this entire process and for her to make this a campaign issue is a disservice to the voters of Senate District 6.

Most of my blogging compadres are trying to avoid even looking at this sort of thing, much less write about it, and truthfully I don't blame them for taking that course.

I don't know why Garcia -- with a million bucks to spend and hundreds of volunteers who have already canvassed the senate district's neighborhoods several times -- feels the need to punch below her weight class like this. It's the second time she has done so (that I am aware of) and both times the Alvarado campaign punched her back, hard.

If Garcia ultimately wins the seat, Alvarado is going to be both her constituent and colleague in the Texas House. They'll have to work together on a variety of issues for the district. Ad hominem attacks between two Democrats in a special election like this are unseemly and unnecessary... unless there's something personal between the two women that hasn't been aired publicly. And frankly, I don't think anybody wants to hear them air their grievances.

I think this is one instance where attacks ads aren't going to help the attacker. I'd like to believe that, anyway. I'd also like to see a cleaner race from here on. There are plenty of issues that need attacking, so I hope the two front-runners for SD-6 focus on those, and not some petty personal dispute.

Update: Stace Medellin, better-connected than me, expands and clarifies.

SD-6 developments (that mention Keystone XL)

The Chron catches up with the SD-6 special, just in time for early voting (beginning tomorrow).

With eight candidates in the race in an overwhelmingly Democratic district that includes Houston's East End, the race is likely to come down to a battle between two prominent Democrats, state Rep. Carol Alvarado, whose House district overlaps much of the Senate district, and former Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia.

Also running are R.W. Bray, the Republican candidate who lost to Gallegos last fall; Democrats Susan Delgado, Joaquin Martinez and Rodolfo "Rudy" Reyes; Republican Dorothy Olmos; and Green Party candidate Maria Selva.

If a runoff is needed - and with so many candidates, one is likely - it will be held between Feb. 23 and March 9, with Gov. Rick Perry scheduling the exact date. 

Apparently Reyes is a Democrat after all, despite keeping that a secret on both his filing application and his website. The Chron's teaser headline on their home page prominently notes Delgado's former occupation. That really is cheesy of the newspaper of record. And judging by the posts from the Khronically Konservative Komment brigade, they took the bait the Chronic was chumming.

Mark Jones at Rice weighed in with his usual nothing.

The race features "a modest activist-versus-establishment dynamic, with activists leaning toward Garcia and the establishment toward Alvarado," said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. "The pattern is not, however, clear-cut, with many establishment Democrats supporting Garcia and many activists backing Alvarado." 

Thanks for clearing that up. The only real news in this entire article is this:

Among the state's 31 senate districts, this predominantly Hispanic district ranks last in the number of registered voters (284,000) and in 2012 voter turnout (138,000). Jones estimates that fewer than 1 in 10 registered voters and 1 in 25 district residents will cast a ballot.

So if Jones is correct, 28,400 +/- votes in total will decide the primary. Garcia, the presumptive front-runner, declared early on her intention to avoid a runoff; she said as much at the bloggers' luncheon she hosted a few weeks ago. So, by extrapolating... she needs 14,201 votes to accomplish that. (See, I can do math.)

She has certainly put a lot of feet in the street since this all started in early December, so that could happen. I just don't think it will. The other four Dems, the Green, and the two Republicans -- one of which got 29% two months ago against Gallegos -- only need to get the same 50% +1 to deny Garcia the outright victory. Twenty-nine percent has been the conservative base vote in the district for the past two cycles in which Gallegos stood for re-election. 2008 and 2012 were both high Democratic turnout years. Again, using Jones' projection... that works out to 8,236 Republican votes.

These SWAGs mean that Garcia needs to earn 14,201 of the remaining 20,164 (28,400 - 8,236) or 70.42%. In competition with five other Democrats/liberals/progressives.

I'm still betting the runoff is going to be between Garcia and Bray.

Selva, for her part, will make Keystone XL a campaign issue. From yesterday's press release...

The Keystone XL Pipeline public-relations campaign is sheer misinformation. Keystone XL proponents claim it will lower gasoline prices. In fact, its economic model will hike Canadian oil prices at the expense of American gasoline consumers. Anthony Swift, author of the Natural Resources Defense Council report (http://www.nrdc.org/energy/files/kxlsecurity.pdf), states that when TransCanada proposed the Keystone pipeline, they set it up to increase oil prices in the United States, thereby increasing profit for Canadian producers when they send their product to the USA. The pipeline would take Canadian oil normally destined for Midwest refineries—which produce gasoline for US use—and instead send it to Gulf Coast refineries for eventual export since it yields more profits abroad.

 I support energy independence for the USA. We will not achieve it by building pipelines that offer us nothing but risk while we route North American oil to overseas markets. There is no employment benefit for Houston in the Keystone pipeline. Supporters refer the the pipeline as a potential ‘job creator.’ The glowing job projections for the pipeline are overblown. The Cornell University Global Labor Institute studied the issue, and they concluded, “…the job estimates put forward by TransCanada are unsubstantiated and the project will not only create fewer jobs than industry states, but that the project could actually kill more jobs than it creates.” 

About the same time that was hitting inboxes, the Tar Sands Blockade protest at the Houston offices of TransCanada was under way.

Here's the live blogging from yesterday, including video and pictures from other direct actions around the country.

You probably won't see much corporate media coverage of the protests against KXL. The HouChron can barely be bothered to cover the special election, so don't expect their corporate overlords to do much more than this. This report from the NYT was the welcome and notable exception.

The development of Alberta’s oil sands has increased levels of cancer-causing compounds in surrounding lakes well beyond natural levels, Canadian researchers reported in a study released on Monday. And they said the contamination covered a wider area than had previously been believed.

For the study, financed by the Canadian government, the researchers set out to develop a historical record of the contamination, analyzing sediment dating back about 50 years from six small and shallow lakes north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, the center of the oil sands industry. Layers of the sediment were tested for deposits of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or PAHs, groups of chemicals associated with oil that in many cases have been found to cause cancer in humans after long-term exposure.

We will just have to wait and see if the issue resonates with the voters in SD-6.

Previous posts on the special election:

Alvarado declares for SD-6

Sylvia Garcia jumps in 

No Noriega(s) for SD-6 *with updates

Governor finally calls SD-6 special election 

Eight for SD-6 

Update: Kuffner adds some depth.

Update (1/13): "While solidarity actions were happening at the offices of TransCanada and its investors and contractors around the country, over a hundred blockaders took over the lobbies of two different TransCanada offices in Houston."

SD-6 candidate forum tonight

Via Sylvia Garcia, the first debate among SD-6 primary candidates is being held tonight, at the Ripley House on Navigation Boulevard.

As I blog this, the candidates are appearing in a similar lunchtime forum hosted by the Houston Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

The tribulations of David Dewhurst

He's as wounded as a wildebeest with a crocodile on his back.

For Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, a criminal investigation into how $1.3 million went missing from his campaign accounts, undetected over five years, perhaps couldn’t have come at a worse time.

As the presiding officer of the Texas Senate, which convenes Tuesday, Dewhurst faces a challenge to his decade-long leadership from ultraconservative Republicans, a split that also figured in his surprise defeat last summer in an expensive U.S. Senate primary race.

And thanks to the missing funds, the Houston multimillionaire has just over $7,200 left in his campaign account, which officeholders use during legislative sessions to supplement staff salaries and pay other bills. By law, he cannot raise any additional money until the session is over.

Fresh off his thrashing at the hands of Tea Party extremist Ted Cruz, and recently pushing all in on a 2014 re-election bid in which he essentially declared that nobody was going to get to his right, The Dew is as mad as he is capable of getting. But getting re-elected is probably the least of his short-term worries.

In the clubby 31-member Senate, how more than $1.3 million went missing from the campaign fund of an astute businessman known for his meticulous attention to detail, without anyone knowing, is the subject of an ongoing, quiet debate.

“This should be embarrassing for him,” said Craig McDonald, executive director of Texans for Public Justice, an ethics watchdog group. “He is responsible for overseeing how public money is spent, yet he can’t even keep track of campaign money.”

The power play is set to open the 83rd session Tuesday (or shortly thereafter).

In the Senate, the session’s opening days will carry special intrigue: whether conservative Republicans will carry out a quietly talked-about bid to overhaul rules to give themselves more power. Many longtime senators are betting not.

At issue is whether there are enough votes to restrict the power of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who presides over the Senate but is not considered to be conservative enough by some on the right, or to change a controversial rule that requires the consent of two-thirds of the members before a bill can be considered by the full Senate. Amending or dropping the two-thirds rule would give Republicans more power over legislation by limiting Democrats’ ability to block bills.

Recall that Democrats are one seat shy of the one-third minority to block, due to the passing of Mario Gallegos. No, they are not. As Charles points out in the comments, eleven is enough to block a 2/3rds majority. Now if you will excuse me, I'll wipe the egg off my face.

The reinforcement won't arrive for perhaps two more months (depending on when the governor schedules the run-off election for SD-6). So this early test of Dewhurst's power will simply reflect whether he can hold his caucus together or not. If a Republican or two defects to join the Dems in hewing to tradition, then Dewhurst's credibility is badly damaged. Not applicable, in light of above.

To me this makes for the most interesting development to open the session, since the Speaker tussle is without much drama. Dewhurst losing on the blocker bill* has a higher degree of probability then David Simpson getting elected Speaker of the House. *But not nearly as high as I thought.

Keep in mind that much of the time, the wildebeest gets away. But that's usually only because some smaller, weaker one becomes lunch.

2013's first Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance welcomes the opening of the Texas Legislature's 83rd session and hopes that it actually tries to make the Lone Star State a better place as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff discusses what some new state legislators are saying about education and the questions they should be asking but aren't.

The GOP is for more of the same -- demonizing the poor and less fortunate -- while the Democrats are for finding reality-based solutions that help everyone get ahead. WCNews at Eye on Williamson points this out: Fairness and equality (are) missing from Texas economy.

There were a few under-reported environmental developments in Texas last week, so PDiddie at Brains and Eggs reported on them.  

BossKitty at TruthHugger had to laugh at the low-brow War on Kwanzaa, then got riled at the Sunday Morning talk shows: Drop the script written by bitter old men!

Over at Texas Kaos, Libby Shaw explains how John Cornyn threatens to wreck our government. Check it out.

Neil at Texas Liberal posted that he left the woods for the safety of the city.