Obama 290, Romney 235 and another debate tonight

With Colorado and New Hampshire uncalled. That's my prognostication today. Try your hand there. Ohio is the linchpin for both campaigns, as Nate Silver elaborates.

I have thought for some time now -- weeks at least, months maybe -- that North Carolina and Florida would go to Romney (with as much anecdotal evidence from people I know in both states as empirical). Likewise, I don't think that either Pennsylvania or Nevada or Wisconsin are in as much play as some people believe. I give Virginia to Obama on the strength of Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson. NH and CO are legitimate tossups, and Obama has a small lead in the Buckeye State. All eyes there, right through to November 6.

Update: One of my old favorites, Electoral-Vote.com, has it 303-235 without Rasmussen, and the Senate 54 D - 45 R with one tie (which is actually independent Angus King in Maine).

If there is actually anyone who is genuinely undecided -- and not just an undecided Republican -- then there's another debate to watch this evening.



The 'RSVP online' is only there in order for organizers to plan server load (in other words, it is not required that you reserve online to watch). If you have cable or satellite you can watch the debate on C-SPAN, Link TV(Direct TV channel 375, Dish Network channel 9410), and other outlets.

#horsesandbayonets

Who knew that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney could be so agreeable?

With the race as tight as ever, and in light of last week’s spirited and heated debate between Obama and Romney, all eyes were on Boca Raton, Fla., on Monday night as the presidential candidates squared off for the third and final time before the election. 

It wasn't long before Obama sunk Romney's battleship, however.

But perhaps the best exchange of the night was when Romney discussed increasing the military, repeating a claim that the U.S. Navy is the smallest it’s been since 1917.

“I think Governor Romney maybe hasn’t spent enough time looking at how our military works,” Obama’s responded. “You mentioned our Navy, for example, and that we have fewer ships than we had in 1916. Well, governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets, because the nature of our military has changed. We have these things called aircraft carriers, where planes land on them. We have ships that go underwater.” He added, “The question is not a game of Battleship where we’re counting ships.”

I don't think the debate was even close, but apparently it won't matter.

On the substance, Obama won the debate. "Governor Romney reminds me of Pinocchio," Obama foreign-policy adviser Richard Danzig, a former Navy secretary, told me afterward. "He wants to be a real boy. He wants to talk strategy. But I don't think Governor Romney really lives in the 21st Century." (Danzig also rolled his eyes at the GOP's contention that Obama had dissed the Navy. Modern naval carriers, he said, are the equivalent of numerous turn-of-the-20th-century ships.)

But Romney's team was just as convinced that the Republican prevailed on style. "The only importance this debate had is it permits people to envision Governor Romney as commander in chief. That was his test," Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom said. "The president showed up not defending America's position in the world but defending his deteriorated position in the race. I think President Obama came across as someone falling behind in the race."

The debates are over. There are two weeks until Election Day. More than anything, the last debate revealed where the candidates think they stand: Romney confident, convinced he has only to maintain his momentum to keep floating to the top of the polls; Obama fighting like an underdog to stop Romney's rise and knock him off his pedestal. 

I do think that, with a few notable exceptions, the contest is now about who gets their supporters to the polls. To that end, at Houston's third or fourth-most popular (predominantly D) polling place yesterday afternoon -- Fiesta on Kirby at OST -- I waited on queue about an hour to vote. The line moved steadily so the time passed quickly. That was about 15 minutes longer than I waited four years ago at the same location (but I went later in the first week of EV). Update: Archives reveal this post projecting 500,000 total early voters in 2008, and there were actually 730,000 (via Charles). Note there also that turnout on Election Day proper was soft, bringing the total in short of the initial goal of 1.2 million Harris County voters. (There were some recriminations about Obama's campaign posted here with respect to that.)

We'll see how those numbers compare in a couple of weeks. But we all remember how 2008 turned out, right?

Update II: From an e-mail delivered this morning, and in the Chron this afternoon...

(County Clerk) Stan Stanart announced today that Harris County voters set a new record for voting during the first day of Early Voting in person. 47,093 persons voted on Monday, shattering the November 2008 first day total of 39,201. 

Update III: And 51,578 voted today.

Related reading:

Hawks of a Feather Flock Together

Fact check: Romney flubs Middle East geography while Obama gets foe's record as Massachusetts governor wrong

Romney shows he's no expert on foreign policy, but seems to avoid getting knocked out by Obama

And Joe Klein...

I was flipping around the channels, watching the talking heads afterward and saw Chris Wallace — an estimable journalist, in most cases — do something really Fox News reprehensible. He mentioned that a Marine had tweeted that Obama wasn’t in touch because Marines still use bayonets. True enough, but does Wallace really think that bayonets are nearly as important as they were 100 years ago? They certainly haven’t been in my experience in war zones over the past 30 years.

And meanwhile, Romney made the sort of mistake that makes Marines cringe: early on in the debate, he called our troops overseas “soldiers.” That drives Marines up a wall. The Army consists of soldiers. The Marine Corps consists of Marines. Both exist under the umbrella of American troops or forces serving overseas. This distinction has been so noxious to the Army that in recent years, it has capitalized its troops — Soldiers — to match the Marine code. I would guess that Fox News may have gotten a few e-mails about that, unmentioned by Fox.

This may seem petty, but it is part of the other-than-reality-based world of RushFoxland — like the alleged Apology Tour that wasn’t. That world, so far as foreign policy is concerned, came crashing down tonight.

The Early Vote Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds everyone that early voting is now under way as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff has one more poll of Texas to discuss.  

BossKitty at TruthHugger has mixed feelings about the extravaganza of F1 Circuit of the Americas and what it's doing to the sleepy little community of Elroy and Cedar Creek -- which will see little benefit for many years -- in The Road to Elroy for F1 Wheeler Dealers. And why do corporations decide what news Americans need to hear and see? Why was such a significant news story first discovered on al-Jazeera: Foreign News and HuffPo Get What American News Media Misses. And after watching the talking heads, gotta share this: Hey ya’ll, we are NOT electing a President.

This week WCNews at Eye on Williamson posted about the "Wal-Mart-ization" of transportation in Texas: Profit, greed and ideology.  

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is just disgusted with Greg Abbott and his Republican cronies pandering to the people who want to force their religion on every American.

The passing of Sen. Mario Gallegos will set off a scramble to lay claim as his successor in the Texas Senate, writes PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

Neil at Texas Liberal offered up a list of Green Party candidates on the ballot in Texas in 2012. It is at least worth a look to give Greens a thought as Texas Democrats offer another lackluster effort in 2012, and as our political system increasingly seems unable to deal with the most important questions of long-term job creation and climate change.

Libby Shaw writes about Rick Perry's latest mission: promoting Romney in Colorado. That should turn out real well for him. Check out Rick Perry To Go to Colorado to Promote Mitt Romney at TexasKaos.

Remaining Brainy Endorsements, Part II (Harris County and statehouse)

(See Part I for the federal and statewide endorsements.)

Texas State Board of Education

I previously endorsed G.C. Molison in District 6, where I reside, but residents of Districts 4 and 8 should cast their ballots for Democrats Lawrence Allen and Dexter Smith, respectively.

State Senator

Similarly, David Courtney in my home district of SD-17 has a Libertarian opponent and a Republican incumbent, so if Democrats can see their way past an STD ballot then he will reward them with effective leadership in the Senate. Other state Senate candidates worthy of your vote include...

SD-06: The late Mario Gallegos. If he defeats his GOP challenger as expected, there will be a special election called by the governor to replace him.

SD-7: Sam Fayed (Tejas) Texas. A ham sandwich would be better than Dan Patrick. Tejas/Texas is all but a rotten ham sandwich. Charles Kuffner doesn't think he's worth it; I'll let you decide.

SD-11: Jackie Acquistapace (D). Conservative, Christian, fairly poor with the English language, and still better than Larry Taylor.

SD-13: Rodney Ellis (D). Still the liberal stalwart of the Texas Senate.

SD-15: John Whitmire (D). He drew a Republican opponent, and he could be better on progressive issues, but Whitmire can continue to be the Dean as long as he likes.

Texas House of Representatives

State Representative, District 127: Cody Pogue (D). Pogue is challenging "Rookie of the Year" Dan Huberty in this Humble/Kingwood-area district. Egberto Willies has written extensively about Pogue's campaign.

District 130: Art Browning (G). Browning is challenging Republican incumbent Allen Fletcher in this northwest Harris County district. Fletcher, whose brushes with illegality are mounting, is bound to collapse of his moral turpitude sooner rather than later; he needs to be removed from the Texas House before that happens.

Browning, a semi-retired petroleum geologist, ran for Texas Railroad Commission in 2010.

District 131: Alfred Molison (G). One of the first Brainy Endorsements.

District 134: Ann Johnson (D). Also an early Brainy Endorsement.

District 135: Paul Morgan (D). A retired printer, Morgan is challenging Republican incumbent Gary Elkins in this Jersey Village -area district. Elkins couldn't even be bothered to fill out the Vote 411 questionnaire. He was described as "used furniture" by Texas Monthly...  in 2003. Isn't it about time we throw that ratty old chair out?

District 137: Gene Wu (D). Wu won a challenging primary and deserves to be the able replacement for the indomitable Scott Hochberg. A legacy Wu can live up to, I believe.

District 139: Sylvester Turner (D). Turner is one of the most capable legislators in the Harris County delegation.

Districts 140, 141, 142, 143: Armando Walle, Senfronia Thompson, Harold Dutton and Ana Hernandez-Luna (all Ds). All four are experienced and capable, face token November opposition if any at all, and have been mentioned as successors to the SD-6 Texas Senate seat after the passing of Mario Gallegos.

District 144: To replace the deceased Republican incumbent, Ken Legler (who had opted not to run for re-election prior to his demise), the Democrats picked Mary Ann Perez, and seek to flip this purple Pasadena-area district. Just a few years ago it was represented by Crazy Bob Talton, so it's evident that the Latino Democratic wave is actually coming in a few places. Perez is running against a Republatino and a Libertarian. Chances are good.

District 145: Carol Alvarado. See D-140-143 above. Texas Monthly wrote about her feisty battle over the sonogram bill in the last session. Her detailed description of the procedure involving transvaginal wanding (pictured at left) had the House transfixed. BOR had more (NSFW). Alvarado is a real fighter, and whether she serves in the Texas House or the Senate in the next legislative session, she will be formidable.

District 146: Borris Miles (D). My representative has regained his footing after some rocky episodes in years past that involved personal troubles. He's a rock-solid progressive.

District 147: Garnet Coleman (D) or Deb Shafto (G). This is mostly a keep-him-honest referendum on Coleman. If you don't think he's done a good enough job, then vote for Shafto, the Green Party's gubernatorial candidate in 2010, and before that, a competitor for Houston city council in 2009.

District 148: Henry Cooper (G) over Jessica Farrar (D) as previously detailed in this Brainy Endorsement from August.

District 149: Hubert Vo (D). Was it only a few years ago that this district was represented by the vile Talmadge Heflin?

District 150: Brad Neal (D). Neal once again picks up the gauntlet against Debbie "Pit of Hell", "Go Live in Afghanistan" Riddle. Maybe some day they'll get tired of her nasty, sorry ass and vote her out. Maybe this November 6.

Justice, First Court of Appeals

Places 2, 6, 7, 8, and 9: Ron Lovett, Chuck Silverman, Natalia Cokinos Oakes, Nile Copeland, and Kathy Cheng (all D).

Copeland was, of course, the very first Brainy Endorsement of this election cycle. Cheng is Copeland's law partner. They have both worked tirelessly, registering new voters at citizenship swearings-in and walking blocks to introduce themselves. I have known Cokinos Oakes' family since I was a child growing up in Beaumont. Silverman barely lost a district court race in 2010 2008; here's the Q&A with his challenger from vote411.

Justice, Fourteenth Court of Appeals

Places 3, 4, 5, and 8: Barbara Gardner, Jim Wrotenberry, Tanner Garth, and Julia Maldonado (all D).

You've seen Gardner's Brainy Endorsement, I take it? She's the best. Maldonado likewise. Wrotenberry and Garth are making bids again for judicial office after narrow losses in 2008 and 2010.

Harris County Judicial Courts

Recommended candidates include: Mike Miller (11th), Al Bennett (61st), Larry Weiman (80th), Kyle Carter (125th), R.K. Sandhill (127th), Michael Gomez (129th), Jaclanel McFarland (133rd), Mike Engelhart (151st), Robert Schaffer (152nd), Alexandra Smoots-Hogan (164th), Josefina Rendon (165th), Ruben Guerrero (174th), Shawna Reagin (176th), Vivian King (177th), David Mendoza (178th), Randy Roll (179th), Tracy Good (333rd), Donna Roth (334th), Herb Ritchie (337th), Hazel Jones (338th), Maria Jackson (339th), and Mack McGinnis (351st).

Please note that some races are left out. That's for good reason.

Harris County District Attorney: No Endorsement.

Lloyd Oliver is both party pariah and Tea Party Democrat. After reading that article, I cannot in good conscience recommend a vote for him. I'm leaving this race blank.

Harris County Attorney (Vince Ryan-D) and Harris County Sheriff (Remington Alessi-G).  Both are previous Brainy Endorsements.

Harris County Tax Assessor/Collector: Ann Harris Bennett. Also an earlier Brainy Endorsement.

Harris County Court at Law #1: Erica Graham, and #2: Damon Crenshaw.

Harris County School Trustee

Position 3, At Large: Diane Trautman
Pos. 4, Pct. 3: Silvia Mintz
Pos. 6, Pct, 1: Erica Lee

Harris County Commissioner

Precinct 1: El Franco Lee
Precinct 3: Glorice McPherson
Precinct 4: Sean Hammerle

Justices of the Peace

Precinct 1, Place 1: Dale Gorczynski
Pct. 2, Pl. 1: JoAnn Delgado
Pct. 3, Pl. 1: Mike Parrot
Pct. 6, Pl 1: Richard Vara
Pct. 8, Pl. 1: Tommy Ginn

And finally...

Harris County Constable, Precinct 1

Carlos Villalobos (G)





Precinct 2: Chris Diaz (D)
Precinct 3: Ken Jones (D)

And don't forget to vote for ALL the bond issues.

The rest of the Brainy Endorsements, Part I (federal and statewide offices)

Here's the list so far.

Nile Copeland for the First Court of Appeals

Alfred and GC Molison for HD 131 and SBOE, respectively

Henry Cooper for HD 148

Keith Hampton for Presiding Judge, Texas Court of Criminal Appeals

Barbara Gardner for the Fourteenth Court of Appeals

Don Cook for Congress, 22nd District

Max Martin for Congress, 36th District

Remington Alessi for Harris County Sheriff

David Courtney for Texas Senate, District 17

Ann Harris Bennett for Harris County Tax Assessor/Collector

Ann Johnson for HD-134

Mike Engelhart, Larry Weiman, and Al Bennett for the Harris County bench

Mark Roberts for Congress, 2nd District

David Collins for United States Senate

Vince Ryan for Harris County Attorney

And so, beginning with the top of your ballot....

President of the United States: Jill Stein, Green Party

Like my friend Neil, if I lived in a swing state I would have to hold my nose and vote for Barack Obama. But the price I pay for living under the fascist theocracy that is the Republicans of Texas is what enables me to vote my conscience and my values. That means I don't have to vote for a president who wants the NDAA to be the law of the land. Who wants to keep assassinating Afghans, Pakistanis, suspected terrorists and civilians and even US citizens with unmanned drones (rather than capture them and torture them, as W Bush did).

It means I don't have to vote for a president who squandered his considerable political capital in 2009 by refusing to fight for single payer universal health care, or even a public option.

It means I get to vote for a president who understands what is necessary to solve the economy's woes and the so-called debt crisis at the same time: stop the wars, raise taxes on the rich, and institute a New Deal-styled federal employment program to rebuild the nation's crumbling infrastructure and new, "green" technology.

You can watch Stein debate Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, Rocky Anderson of the Justice Party, and Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party on Tuesday, October 23rd, the night after the final Obama-Romney debate tomorrow. It will be moderated by Larry King (who will be less under the sword than Bob Schieffer, for sure).

Now then... in top-to-bottom order, federal and statewide races on your Harris County ballot for contests I haven't written about so far...

US Congress, 7th Congressional District: No Endorsement

After the Democratic primary in the spring -- you may recall it was blogged about a little bit here -- I prepared to go to work for the Green candidate, Lance Findley. But he never responded to my e-mails or my phone calls volunteering help. I heard through the grapevine that he said he would not have the resources to mount a campaign. Which turned out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, of course, since he ignored all offers of assistance. I never met the guy, never communicated with him. So I can't support him. I can't even bring myself to vote for him.

In a true lesser of four evils contest, none of the men running  for CD-07 is worthy of anyone's -- and I do mean no one's -- vote.

-- Vanessa Edwards Foster over Al Green in CD-9. Green's had his moments, both good and bad, but as befits my endorsement pattern isn't the progressives' best option in this race. Foster is a strong activist for the right causes and has earned the protest vote, like so many others on this list. You can see a short video of Foster here, being interviewed by Egberto Willies.

-- Tawana Cadien, the Democrat running against Michael McCaul in CD-10. Like the rest of the worthy challengers over the years against Lowry Mays' son-in-law, Cadien is the best choice.

-- Sheila Jackson Lee, of course, in CD-18.

-- In CD-29 another Green, Maria Selva, earns the nod over longtime Democratic incumbent Gene Green. Green has long been in the pocket of the oil and petrochemical industry lining the Houston Ship Channel. Selva's progressive bonafides as a persistent community activist are clear. Here's an interview with her from earlier in the campaign season.



Texas Railroad Commissioner: Chris Kennedy (G) over Dale Henry (D).

Henry has disappointed over some anti-Obama rhetoric quietly voiced but still overheard -- of the "Kenyan/Muslim/soshulist" strain.  It's okay not to support the president on policy matters, it's not OK to go all Tea Party Democrat. (More on Harris County DA candidate Lloyd Oliver in the next post.) This is also a least-worst option, as Kennedy has been fairly invisible on the campaign trail as well. Here are side-by side comparisons of Kennedy and Henry on the issues, in their own words.

Texas Railroad Commissioner (unexpired term): Josh Wendel, Green. There is no Democrat running against Rick Perry stooge Barry Smitherman and Libertarian perennial Jaime O. Perez. Those Democrats voting a straight ticket are skipping this race. That's ridiculous.

Justice, Texas Supreme Court, Place 4: Charles Waterbury, Green.

Republican John Devine, a fairly odious fellow himself, defeated incumbent David Medina in May as much on the strength of the allegations by the Runaway Grand Jury as anything else. Sensible Republicans and conservatives should vote for Beaumont attorney Tom Oxford, the Libertarian, and liberals -- progressives and Democrats -- should get behind Waterbury. He's run previously for the SCOTX and since there's no Democrat in this contest either, he could be elected... if the Democrats did their part, by splitting their tickets or simply not voting STD (straight-ticket Democrat).

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 6: Michelle Petty (D) or Jim Chisholm (G).

Your choice. Both candidates are well-qualified and would be a vast improvement over Nathan Hecht, the Republican incumbent and occasional boyfriend of Harriet Myers, GWB's erstwhile SCOTUS nominee and WH counsel.

I also recommend a vote for Libertarians Roberto Koelshch for TSC Place 2, Mark W. Bennett for the Court of Criminal Appeals (Place 7) and William Bryan Strange, III (Place 8), in lieu of any other opposition to the Republicans.

Following up with Harris County-specific contests later today.