Those swinging single women

Wading into an explosive social issue, Republican Mitt Romney on Tuesday said he would not pursue any abortion-related legislation if elected president.

"There's no legislation with regards to abortion that I'm familiar with that would become part of my agenda," he told the Des Moines Register in an interview posted on the newspaper's website.

That sounds a little slippery on the face of it; "that I'm familiar with".

Romney's statement to the newspaper represents an apparent shift on a topic Obama's campaign has tried to use against him, particularly with female voters. Soon after the comments were posted on the Register's website, the president's campaign pounced.

"We know the truth about where he stands on a woman's right to choose: He's said he'd be delighted to sign a bill banning all abortions, and called Roe v. Wade 'one of the darkest moments in Supreme Court history,' while pledging to appoint Supreme Court justices who will overturn it. Women simply can't trust him," Obama spokeswoman Lis Smith said.

As recently as a presidential debate in January, Romney said the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark ruling that legalized abortion across the nation.

My feeling here is that Romney has slid too much to the left -- aka closer to the center -- for this to be of help to his cause. Update: It only took the campaign a couple of hours to walk that back.

Then again, he may just be divining the polling.

(Democratic pollster Stan) Greenberg told (the Washington Post's Greg Sargent) in an interview that his new research persuaded him that Mitt Romney beat Obama in the debate for a simple reason. Unmarried women — a critical piece of Obama’s coalition — did not hear Obama telling him how they would make their lives better. By contrast, they did hear Romney telling them he’d improve their lives. 

Recall that in yesterday's post, this erosion of support from women was mentioned.

Romney, however, succeeded in communicating with unmarried women, Greenberg says, by prefacing talk of his five point plan with an extended discussion of the economic strain of middle-income Americans — which Greenberg calls an effective “set up that gave his details meaning.”

“When Romney talked about what he is going to do for the middle class, his five point plan, they were very responsive,” Greenberg says. “The president had a lot of detail but didn’t have the set up in values.”

Unmarried women are a key piece of the “rising American electorate,” which includes young voters and minorities and propelled Obama's 2008 victory. “The key issues for them are the suite of economic issues around rebuilding the middle class,” Page Gardner, the president of Women’s Voices Women Vote, who commissioned Greenberg’s research, says. “They are the most stressed and stretched.”

Greenberg’s research also included a national survey, and focus groups in Ohio and Virginia, that suggest a course correction for Obama. The national survey found that before the debate, Obama was doing extremely well among unmarried women, beating Romney among them by 63-24. He held a 19 point edge among them on who would do better on “issues important to you.” 

So Mitt's reaching out with another line to the constituency that will apparently decide 2012: unmarried females in a handful of swing states.

I'd like to say here that I weep for the future for a segment of the electorate that appears to have overlooked the whole War on Women thing, but it just doesn't come as a big enough surprise.

Women -- single women, with children or without, irrespective of nationality -- have had it worse in this economy than anybody. I can't blame them one little bit for reaching for any lifeline thrown near them.

It's a shame they aren't aware of the two female candidates running on a New Deal platform, isn't it?

If Obama -- or more immediately, Joe Biden -- doesn't mention 47% in the next debate, the Democrats could succeed in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

I think they can hold on, but they need to do more than just try to run out the clock. As they say in auto racing: it's the last lap of the Daytona 500; you don't take your foot off the gas.

(Maybe I should look for less sports-related macho analogies.)

OK Obama supporters, you can panic now.

The Great and Powerful Kos has spoken.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/4-7. Likely voters. MoE ±2.72% (9/27-30 results)

The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

  Obama 47 (49)
Romney 49 (45)

That's a pretty disastrous six-point net swing in just a week, and the first time we've ever had Romney in the lead. It is inline with all other national polling showing Romney making gains in the wake of his debate performance last week.

Both the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers saw their Romney bounce evaporate on Sunday. In this poll, 75 percent of the sample was gathered on Thursday and Friday, at the height of Romney's bounce. This is because PPP does call-backs: It identifies a random range of numbers and begins calling them on Thursday. If they get no answer, they keep trying the same numbers on subsequent days until they get the required number of responses (we ask for at least 1,000). This avoids the old tropes about young liberals being out partying on Friday nights, while conservatives are at church on Sunday mornings, etc.

[...]

So where did Romney gain? Among women, Obama went from a 15-point lead to a slimmer 51-45 edge. Meanwhile, Romney went from winning independents 44-41 to winning them 48-42. And just like the Ipsos poll showed last week, Romney further consolidated his base. They went from supporting him 85-13 last week, to 87-11 this week while Obama lost some Democrats, going from 88-9 last week, to 87-11 this week.

Several other polls, Pew chief among them, saw a big increase in the number of respondents self-identifying as Republicans—a sign of increased intensity on that side of the aisle. Our poll confirms that intensity boost. Last week, 65 percent of conservatives were "very excited" about voting this year. This week, it's 74 percent. That's a significant shift. Liberals also gained, but only marginally so, from 68 to 70 percent.

Clearly, none of this is irreversible, and it'll bear watching the daily trackers to see if Romney continues to fade or not. And obviously, next week's numbers will further clarify the shape of the race.

Regardless, it shows that Obama's debate performance was an epic blunder (my emphasis). Romney gave his partisans a reason to get excited about him and they've responded. It should come as no surprise that people like to fight for people who are fighting for them.

Obama's also been looking at the polls, and underscores the fear factor to his partisans.

President Barack Obama is telling supporters that with one month to go, it is time for them to get "almost obsessive."

Speaking to donors at a $20,000-per-ticket dinner in San Francisco, Obama said, quote, "I very much intend to win this election."

But he says it will require supporters to mobilize every resource they can think of to help him. He encourages those who given him cash to do more by sending emails, making phone calls, and reaching out to cousins or uncles or friends in the battleground states that will decide the election.

Says Obama, quote: "You've got to make sure that we bring this home." 

The two excerpts above encapsulate so much of what has gone wrong with our political process that it's difficult for me to find a place to start to break it down. No joke; it's an Aegean stables-like task. (I'm not even going to mention Mitt Romney, either.)

Indeed Obama had a shitty debate, but to consider that his performance actually changed so many peoples' minds is a rather pathetic take on the electorate. A week ago -- yes, just a week ago -- the race was virtually concluded. The momentum was solidly blue, and was spreading downballot rapidly. I haven't looked to see what the polls reveal about Senate or Congressional races yet, but suffice it to say that something similar is probably occurring.

You may recall that I have a low opinion of opinion polling. That is still the case. Beating my ownself out of the Crips gang also helps in processing the wilting of Team Bleu fortunes with the first frost.

Democratic White House prospects now rest in the capable hands of Joe Biden in his debate with Paul Ryan Thursday night. That should still be fun.

But partisan Dems, and particularly those in Texas, suddenly have a lot to be worried about.

The focus will crystallize after today; it's the last day to register to vote in this election in Texas, so the conversation and the efforts will turn to GOTV. And to enlisting Texans to call swing state voters, as if so much of that volunteer effort hasn't already been siphoned off. With fully 50% of the potential American electorate officially uncoupled from having a say -- as much by their own choice as the deadline -- the audience for the message just divided in half.

Texans are both ATM and ground infantry recruitment headquarters again for Obama, and for close Senate contests in places like Massachusetts and Wisconsin... but not here. With tight and winnable races in the Texas House and state Senate, resources must be expended to save ground, not expand it any longer. Another strategy shift in the midst of happening, as the state poll numbers continue to be gathered.

Unless the momentum can be regained by the Democrats, the tides appear to have reversed themselves, with the Red coming in and the Blue going out.

This would have bothered me a lot more in years past.

We can hope that fear is a good motivator for Democratic voters, at least. It seems to work better on the Republican lizard brain, but so does rabid enthusiasm on their hive mind. And now they have it. They probably won't let go of it again over the course of the next month.

It's a cryin' ass shame either way for Texas Dems, though. They will have to pour themselves out block-walking, phone-calling, lit-dropping and push-carding just to preserve some gains that were in the bank last week.

All because Obama mailed it in on his anniversary.

My own enthusiasm for Obama -- and it never was a lot -- began to deflate early on when he refused to fight for his own healthcare program, and then more so as he declined to fight back against the worst of the Republican attacks on him. Here I might pile on with Guantanamo, NDAA, drone assassinations of Afghani and Pakistani civilians as well as American citizens, the mishandling of both the economic crisis as well as the subsequent stimulus, and most recently our environment locally and our climate globally.

But I will save elaborating on these reasons for not backing the president in 2012 for later.

Even some of the Kossacks commenting on that thread get it, though, this one in particular (poor syntax notwithstanding).

When you embrace proto Republican ideas do not be surprised when voters look favorably on Republican ideas that are so close to your own. If Republicans are good enough for Obama to want to make nice with then why should undecideds not take them seriously too. We may lose this election because of the President's insistence on bipartisanship and the failure to treat the base well.

The Greens are not going to get anywhere near what Nader got in 2000. The Greens will not be to blame here. Rather the administration's failure along with the media's to properly label the Tea Party and its billionaire benefactors as the danger to the country that they represent. And the lack of support for the labor movement and the embrace of neoliberal economic policy.

The administration's handling of the banking crisis was a political disaster. It alienated voted (sic) while only benefiting the wealthy. What should have been an era of aggressive banking reform was instead an era of bankers getting wealthier.

There's a Houston-area meetup of Daily Kosians this weekend. Some I already know offline; some are activists, some are clicktivists, all are dyed-in-the-wool Democrats. It's an opportunity to see how well-received a person like me is in that company.

There are a lot of votes in the can already, however, and none of what's happening right now has changed my ballot at all. I will still vote for several Democrats, all the Greens I can, and a few Libertarians where they are the only one running against a Republican. But then again, I'm not a low-information voter, either.

And I doubt that you are as well. But the election doesn't turn on people like us... except for down the ballot. That's especially the case here in the Great State.

Update: Nate Silver, as good at the game as any, says "don't worry". Plenty of historical precedent for one good debate being fairly meaningless in the overall scheme. And the Irish betting service I follow -- always hilarious -- declares in this morning's e-mail...

With less than a month to go before America goes to the polls Paddy Power, Europe’s largest betting company, can report that close to 3 times more money has been staked on President Barack Obama than his election rival Mitt Romney.

The Irish betting house has seen only 25.5% of money staked on their next President betting line placed on Romney since he was formally named as the Republican candidate on August 30th while 74.5% of the dough has been placed on Obama in the same period.

Meanwhile, the former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, has seen his odds of winning the presidential race improve significantly from 9/2 to 9/4 since his powerful display in the first debate but still trails Barack Obama who remains the favourite to win the election at 1/3.

 A spokesperson for Paddy Power said “Obama looked to be home and dry in our customers’ eyes about two weeks ago, however there’s been a recent surge in support for Romney which would suggest that Obama might be in a Mitt of trouble.”

Update II: Nobody does 'stop freaking out' better than Wonkette (NSFW due to language).

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance has Big Bird's back as it brings you this week's roundup.
  
BossKitty at TruthHugger was in a hurry and only posted one article. Thanks to underfunded oversight and a broken Congress, the state of the Veterans Administration is disgusting: VA System Failure, Blame Robot Congress.

Off the Kuff deconstructed a truly crappy poll that was nonetheless accepted uncritically by the media.  

WCNews at Eye on Williamson shows us that one of the problems with our elections is who doesn't show up to vote: Getting non-voters to the polls.

Green presidential candidate Jill Stein's Texas swing wrapped up last Sunday in Houston with a visit to the Emile Street Community Farm, a fundraiser at a Montrose-area environmental showcase home, and another appearance on KPFT Pacifica radio. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs has pictures.

Neil at Texas Liberal also went to a campaign appearance of Stein's.

Jill Stein wraps up Texas swing today

This afternoon, back in Houston, at the Emile Street Farm, and then the environmental showcase home of Lee and Hardy Loe. And tonight on KPFT again.

Your last chance in Houston to see and speak with a presidential candidate who is actually for the 99%... without having to pay thousands of dollars to do so. And several of the Greens on the Harris County ballot also.

Here's more photos from the past few days.

Sunday No Big Bird Funnies

Brainy Endorsements: Vince Ryan

Vince Ryan is running for re-election to Harris County attorney. He was elected in 2008's Obama wave and faces Republican Bob Talton to return to office. If you don't count Wayne Dolcefino as political opposition, that is.

The Chron beat me to this endorsement (as slow as they are, I am disappointed I let that happen) and while gathering plaudits for Ryan's work and experience, drops in this intriguing paragraph.

We have noted, however, that partisanship has on occasion been taken to unhelpful lengths in blogs written by high-profile members of Ryan's team. These reflect on the county attorney himself and do not always promote civil and respectful relations with the many elected Republican officials at the county.

I can't find what they refer to here. Anyone?

GOP Godfather Gary Polland, something weird calling itself Texas Patriot Statesman, and Big Jolly have made the usual partisan appeals, but anything critical of Talton and supportive of the Ryan campaign "from high-profile members" of his team eludes my searches.

And Charles Kuffner -- from his continuing series of paeans on the inexorable power of money to get elected -- queried his readers in the spring about the rift among Republicans in the primary. No one appears to have answered his question.

I'll give that a whirl, without being able to confirm some of my supposition.

Talton earned the nickname "Crazy Bob" when he was in the state legislature. Talton, in fact, was so crazy that he bucked Tom Craddick -- hard and often -- when he was in the statehouse, which at the time was virtually a suicidal act. Jolly alludes to this in the link above (at the end).

Talton kamikaze style was so feared, in fact, that no less than Representatives Garnet Coleman and Jessica Farrar, state Senators Mario Gallegos and Rodney Ellis, former Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia, former state representatives Scott Hochberg and Rick Noriega, all refused to support the Democrat that ran against Talton in 2006, Janette Sexton. It's worth excerpting a small bit...

(S)everal Houston-area Democratic legislators made promises of help of all kinds, but when she called to take up those offers, her calls went unanswered and unreturned. There were some people who leveled with Padilla-Sexton: state representative Garnet Coleman told her that he and his colleagues had discussed her race and come to the conclusion that they could not assist her because “they had to work with Bob Talton on regional issues”. (I contacted Phillip Martin, Coleman’s chief of staff, for a response but my queries went unanswered.) Mostly she got the cold shoulder: Rep. Jessica Farrar was effusive in her initial offers of assistance, but declined to return phone messages when the time came to help. Padilla-Sexton also reached out to Harris County commissioner Sylvia Garcia (mentoring), Sen. Rodney Ellis (about an air quality question), Rep. Scott Hochberg (regarding state education funding), Sen. Mario Gallegos (for adding credibility to her campaign) and Rep. Rick Noriega (for general help and direction), but none of those people returned her calls, either.

There were obviously conversations between Craddick's many enemies, Republicans among them, in 2006 about how to take him down. This may have earned Talton the respect so many Democrats showed him, as well as some enmity from conservatives of a Craddick-loving stripe. After all, there were over a dozen Texas House Democrats lining up behind the former Speaker in January 2007. Given that, how could any conservative fall out of formation and not be accused of heresy?

What this tells me -- and what it should tell you -- is that Democrats are such a beaten-down minority that they don't hesitate to throw one of their own under the bus if they can find a Republican to make a deal with. That's classic battered-spouse syndrome, folks. But the more important question is: what's the difference between the two parties, again?

I have a post prepared that is going to talk more about these local concession-tenderers, as John Behrman has referred to them. I may run it before Election Day... if I want to burn the last bridge between me and the Harris County Democratic Party. Suffice it for now to say that this is precisely where the roots of the problem for Democrats are dug in: with the oligarchs who are collecting markers, waiting for their next electoral opportunity.

But all of that is a digression from the low-quality opponent Vince Ryan has, as well as from the fine work he has done. Let's get Ryan back downtown to keep working as a check and balance against the worst of the Republicans on Harris County's Commissioners Court.

Brainy Endorsements so far include the following...

Nile Copeland for the First Court of Appeals
Alfred and GC Molison for HD 131 and SBOE, respectively
Henry Cooper for HD 148
Keith Hampton for Presiding Judge, Texas Court of Criminal Appeals
Barbara Gardner for the Fourteenth Court of Appeals
Don Cook for Congress, 22nd District
Max Martin for Congress, 36th District
Remington Alessi for Harris County Sheriff
David Courtney for Texas Senate, District 17
Ann Harris Bennett for Harris County Tax Assessor/Collector
Ann Johnson for HD-134
Mike Engelhart, Larry Weiman, and Al Bennett for the Harris County bench
Mark Roberts for Congress, 2nd District
David Collins for United States Senate

Jill Stein and Kingwood's Students for Democratic Socialism

Three hundred people, not all of them students at Lone Star College, and not all the students present as required for curriculum. If I hadn't taken the pictures myself, I never would have thought it happened, either.

Despite reading Stace and Egberto all these years, I had no idea there was such a thriving nest of communist pit vipers in Kingwood.

This is exactly what conservatives have been warning us about for years: damn liberal professors corrupting the minds of our impressionable young people.

One of those who sponsors the group and hosted the event indicated to me that when they polled 900 students four years ago, the campus went 61-39... for McCain. So maybe Republicans don't have so much to worry about after all.

Still, at a time when the Harris County Green Party can barely get fifty at a monthly general meeting, and the leverage of teachers over students notwithstanding, 300 people on an NFL Thursday night is, well... unbelievable.

Dr. Stein touched on everything her presidential campaign is about for the hour she spoke, and answered questions for another thirty minutes, before being greeted by about 40-50 of the attendees for face time and photos. Earlier in the day it was the same phenomenon at U of H: students thronged around her in rotating groups of twenty to thirty, listening raptly and snapping pics on their cellphones. A few I spoke to as I distributed lit knew who she was, and were delighted to see her on campus.

I had one black student tell me he made a mistake when he voted for Obama in 2008 (!).

I haven't spent much time on college campuses in the past few years, so I'm sore from all the walking and was miserable in the heat and humidity for what little I did yesterday. My shin splints fired up and I went hypoglycemic, necessitating a sit-down for about fifteen minutes with a sandwich and ice tea while others did the work.

But this morning, I'm still agog at what the potential is for a progressive (not necessarily blue, although by extension they will benefit) movement in Texas.


Jill Stein takes a "Toxic Tour" of the Houston Ship Channel and East End this morning, followed by a press conference at 11 at Tranquility Park, with Juan Parras of t.e.j.a.s and Tar Sands Blockade activist Ben Franklin, who was choked, pepper-sprayed, Tasered, and then arrested in east Texas last week. Yesterday, actress Daryl Hannah was also arrested, as was a Wood County great-grandmother, charged with trespassing... on her own property.

Finally, another public speaking event at St. Stephens in the Montrose at 7 p.m. wraps the Stein campaign's day. Tomorrow: San Antonio. See the full schedule of Texas appearances here.