Adios MoFo

The good news for Rick Perry is that everyone will probably stop talking about his bizarre New Hampshire speech now. The bad news is: He created an even more cringe-inducing YouTube moment at Wednesday night’s Republican presidential debate — one that probably represents the most embarrassing public slip-up in what has been a campaign full of them for Perry.

My first impression was -- seriously -- that it wasn't that bad. I laughed at him ... but I laugh at him all the time. Frankly I thought that Herman Cain's "Princess Nancy" was much, much worse.

Apparently, Perry’s Intrade value — which wasn’t that high to begin with, thanks in large part to all of the poor debate performances that preceded this — cratered in the few minutes after this exchange. This really has the potential to be the flub that will define all of Perry’s flubs. [...]

... When the debate ended, the host of CNBC’s wrap-up show called it a disastrous moment that will be replayed for years to come. He asked his guest, Larry Kudlow, if it’s a candidacy-killer for Perry. “I’m afraid it is,” Kudlow replied, calling it “a devastating gaffe.”

Later, Michele Bachmann appeared and said that she and the rest of the GOP candidates all feel sorry for Perry. That’s what it’s come to for the Texan: Three months after jumping into the GOP race and surging to a commanding lead, he’s now being pitied by Michele Bachmann. The real suspense around Perry now may simply be whether he bothers to stick around until Iowa.

New Hampshire's effort was manic, unscripted, and made Rick Perry actually seem gay, in public and for what I presume is the only time ever caught on camera.

This was just a garden variety brain fart.

But hey, whatever ends this for everybody I can get down with.

Houston council candidates on hallucinogens

In their own words. Chris Carmona, who got doubled up by Melissa Noriega 55 -26 yesterday, posted this on her Facebook wall:

"congratulations melissa. this has been a fun experience. i look forward to working closely with you over the next two years to make it all the more easier to transition into the seat in 2013. congratulations! "

Not a single capitalized letter. Impressive.

Louis Molnar, who garnered almost 11% in his AL4 bid against Amy Price (21%) and C.O. Bradford (68%):

Thank you to everyone who supported me in this race. It was a tremendous win! What a ride! I now hold a new title: Hon. (Ret.) Louis Molnar and am off to my next set of challenges. Stay tuned! :)

Molnar, whom everyone has presumed to be Latino all this time, turns out to be Hungarian. When he says "I come from an immigrant family," he means his family came over the Canadian border.

And one blogger:

Mayoral Margin. Given the review done in the previous post, I’m willing to up my margin and say that Annise Parker goes over 60% today. If I were bolder in my guesstimating, I might even suggest 65%. We’ll see soon enough how close to accurate that is.

Whew. Yes, we did. The online poll came closer. (Teasing the big man. His progs are usually better than mine, which is why I stopped making any.)

And one elected official. This is more TeaBagger psychosis than it is pharmaceutically-induced mania:

Stanart: aside from turnout, election day went smoothly

"Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, did you enjoy the play?"

Elections usually DO go smoothly when only ONE out of every ten registered voters shows up to vote, you moron. Maybe if you stopped making sure every single piece of paper distributed to election judges gets your name printed in BOLD on it, your office could correct misinformation in election manuals instead of having to print 4 pages of corrections. Stop wasting OUR taxpayer money on YOUR mistakes, STAN STANART.

I could continue with additional insanity, but it's a beautiful day and I'm going to spend some of it outside.

Fifty point eight percent (and ten)

Against token opposition, Parker barely avoided a runoff. With all votes counted, the incumbent mayor garnered 50.8 percent of the vote over five underfunded and little-known challengers despite spending more than $2.3 million. Her predecessor, Bill White, won 86 percent of the vote in his last race for mayor in 2007.

Parker actually received fewer than 50 percent of the votes cast on Election Day but she rolled up greater tallies in early voting and absentee ballots cast.

A little humility might go a long way for the Mayor as she continues to "fix things" in her second term.

In her first term, Mayor Annise Parker consolidated departments, laid off city workers, raised fees, negotiated labor contracts with all three city employee unions, undertook historic designation of several neighborhoods over the opposition of those rallying around property rights, redrew the city’s political map, pushed for the addition of two Council seats and implemented two controversial voter-approved propositions to turn off the city’s red-light cameras and start charging a monthly drainage fee.

Upon winning a second term Tuesday, she said the work isn’t done.

“I’m going to continue to tackle every tough problem that I can find and fix things,” Parker told the Chronicle at her Election Night headquarters at Union Station.

If she can get some workers hired to begin projects funded by the drainage fee -- which had an "Against" slate in yesterday's races that was miserably defeated -- then she will do better in '13.

But this news last night is an inauspicious beginning: while Parker partied, seven Occupy Houston participants were arrested (three more were detained and then released) for refusing to move a tarp.

At approximately 11:00 PM, HPD arrested 10 Occupy Houston participants as a result of a dispute over a tarp being used to protect equipment belonging to Occupy Houston from inclement weather.

Police confronted one of the Occupy Houston participants about the placement of a tarp in Tranquility Park and requested its removal. The participant refused to remove the tarp on the grounds that it was necessary to protect equipment vital to the participants’ well-being. The participant discussed the matter with officers over a period of approximately 20 minutes, during which time HPD presence at the occupation site escalated dramatically, reaching a total of 27 officers and 19 police cruisers.

After failing to reach a resolution, police insisted that an arrest would be made if the tarp were not removed. The aforementioned participant remained steadfast in his position and 5 additional Occupy Houston participants indicated their willingness to be arrested on these terms as well. HPD then proceeded to arrest the participants and confiscate the tarp and other equipment belonging to the occupiers.

Four additional Occupy Houston participants were detained during the course of the arrests. Three individuals who were filming the event were detained for jaywalking after attempting to cross Walker St. at Bagby, where a police cruiser was obstructing the crosswalk. Another participant was arrested while requesting the name and badge number of one of the arresting officers. Three of the detained persons were released after a period of time, while the remaining 7 participants were booked into the municipal jail facility located on Lubbock. Video of the arrests may be viewed at Occupy Houston’s YouTube channel.

This confrontation occurred about two hours after Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee addressed the general assembly. An Iraq War veteran, Shaun Crump, was among those arrested.

Not a good way to start, Mayor Parker.

A little tighter than everyone thought

I read some anti-incumbent anger into the closer-than-expected election results this evening.

Mayor Annise Parker leads her five rivals with 95 percent of Harris County precincts reporting (and all Fort Bend County precincts reporting; there is a tiny bit of Houston over the border) but her support has fallen from 52.76 percent in early-voting results to 50.94 percent now.

Though it appears unlikely, Parker would be faced into a runoff if her total ends below 50 percent; that would be a rare event for an incumbent mayor, particular one without any well-financed challengers.

Most close observers considered Parker a prohibitive favorite in the absence of a well-funded or well-known challenger among the five candidates who ran against her. [...]

A poll last month showed Parker with the lowest approval rating of any Houston mayor in decades, and only 37 percent of respondents said they would vote for her.

The Council races were a mixed bag of close and not-so-close. The tight ones:

With 838 of 885 Harris County precincts reporting, most incumbents are clear winners in Houston City Council elections.

+ District A (near northwest) is one exception. There, challenger Helena Brown leads incumbent Brenda Stardig 46.9 to 41.3 percent.

+ The crowded District B race (northeast and far north) is headed to a runoff, with Alvin Byrd leading at 25.1 percent, followed by Jerry Davis at 24.4 percent and Kathy Blueford-Daniels at 18 percent. Byrd is an aide to incumbent Jarvis Johnson, who is termed out.

+ Former state representative Ellen Cohen leads in District C (Montrose, Heights and other nearby neighborhoods) with 54.2 percent of the vote, having dominated fund-raising in the contest. She is trailed by Brian Cweren at 27.3 percent.

+ In At-Large 1, incumbent Stephen Costello was leading with 51.2 percent of the vote, followed by Scott Boates at 22.4 percent and Don Cook at 18.1 percent.

+ The 10-candidate race for At-Large 2 is still blurry. Perennial candidate Andrew Burks leads with 17.2 percent of the vote, followed by former state representative Kristi Thibaut at 15.8 percent, Elizabeth Perez at 14.2 percent and former planning commissioner David Robinson at 11.9 percent.

+ In At-Large 3, incumbent Melissa Noriega was leading with 55.8 percent of the vote, followed by Chris Carmona at 26.1 percent and J. Brad Batteau at 18.1 percent.

+ In At-Large 5, controversial incumbent Councilwoman Jolanda Jones looks set for her third straight runoff. She faces two strong contenders, chiropractor Jack Christie (who nearly defeated her two years ago) and regulatory compliance expert Laurie Robinson. Jones leads with 38.9 percent, followed by Christie at 32.7 percent and Robinson at 19.9 percent.

Stardig is going to be Teabagged next month. Cohen posts incumbent-like numbers in winning her election. Costello barely avoids a run-off. JoJo and Christie square off against each other in December, again, same as in '09.

The race for AL2 has the biggest surprise of the evening, with perennial candidate Burks leading the ten-person field, and Thibaut making the run-off against him.

“I just went and got me my favorite cigar,” Andrew Burks said when asked for his reaction to leading in early voting in the 10-candidate At-Large 2 race.

This is, by Burks’ count, his fifth race for a council seat. He took At-Large 2 incumbent Sue Lovell to a runoff two years ago. [...]

Burks also bought advertising in the Texas Conservative Review, whose endorsement he secured, and radio station KCOH.

The not-tight ones:

+ Incumbent Wanda Adams will hold her District D (south and southeast) seat, now leading challenger Larry McKinzie 81.7 to 18.3 percent.

+ Incumbent Mike Sullivan is unopposed in District E (Clear Lake and Kingwood).

+ In District F (southwest), incumbent Al Hoang also looks likely to avoid a runoff. He leads at 56 percent, trailed by Peter “Lyn” Rene at 26 percent and Hoc Thai Nguyen at 18 percent.

+ In District G (west), incumbent Oliver Pennington will top Clyde Bryan. Pennington leads 76.8 to 23.2 percent.

+ In District H (near north), incumbent Ed Gonzalez will beat Patricia Rodriguez. Gonzalez leads 68.2 to 31.8 percent.

+ In District I (East End and downtown), incumbent James Rodriguez will top Leticia Ablaza. He leads 64.5 to 35.5 percent.

+ In District J, (southwest) — newly formed based on the city’s growth according to 2010 Census data and crafted by Hispanic leaders as a “hard-earned” Latino opportunity district — non-Latino Mike Laster will win. Laster leads with 67.3 percent of the vote, with his closest challenger, Criselda Romero, at 21.7 percent.

+ In District K, (south-southwest) the second district added in response to 2010 Census data, Larry Green will win. He leads with 65.1 percent, trailed by Pat Frazier at 25.8 percent.

+ In At-Large 4, incumbent C.O. Bradford, a former police chief, will retain his seat. He leads with 67.9 percent, trailed by Amy Price at 21 percent.

While there is plenty to be happy about as it relates to Laster and Green, it's a disappointment that Hoang and Bradford will return to council. Bradford in particular seems to be demonstrating some Teflon ability with respect to the myriad of scandals with his fingerprints on them and the lack of any big hits that struck Parker, Costello, Stardig, and to a lesser extent Noriega.

Bradford will be first in line to challenge Parker in 2013 for mayor, and will attempt to reassemble the Gene Locke coalition of African-Americans and Republicans to take her out. I'm guessing the HGLBT Caucus won't be endorsing him then, but Dr. Hotze certainly will.

The odious Manuel Rodriguez survived his self-inflicted homophobia wounds, getting re-elected to the HISD board by 24 votes. The worst result by far.

More analysis tomorrow.