Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Tex Trib poll winners: "Don't know"

The Texas Tribune polls a whole lot of undecided voters. They made the lede, though, all about Rick Perry's ineptitude.

It's a good thing Rick Perry says he's not running for president — only 4 percent of Texas Republicans say they'd vote for the governor, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll.

"This is a major question for a guy who's getting national buzz," says Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a government professor at UT. "He hasn't convinced Texans that he's a presidential front-runner."

Not that he's trying to. Perry has said repeatedly that he's not a presidential candidate without squelching campaigns to draft him as one.

Perry's not even the top-rated Texan in the race. That distinction gos to U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Surfside, who's at 10 percent among registered voters who say they will vote in the Republican primary. The leader of the pack — and it's a narrow lead in a pack without a clear front-runner — is former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, at 12 percent, followed by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, at 11 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 10 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota each have the support of 7 percent, followed by celebrity businessman Donald Trump, 6 percent; Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 4 percent; former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 3 percent; and Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana and former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah, at 1 percent each.

One in 10 Republican voters want someone else, and 14 percent say they don't know whom they'd vote for in a GOP primary held today. Several of the candidates on that list, including Huckabee, Trump and Daniels, have dropped out since poll was conducted.

So Rick Perry came in nearly last, and "Don't Know" came in first, barely ahead of Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich. Recall that a GOP activist who regularly comments here said he "didn't know anyone who was supporting Gingrich". Someone is obviously wrong. And another embarrassing part for the Trib: they conducted their poll in the middle of Trump's meltdown, Gingrich's disastrous rollout, and Huckabee and Daniels both announcing they were not getting in the race.

The US Senate polling makes no more sense than this, either. It also has "Don't Know" winning ... in a landslide.

On the Republican side, 50 percent say they don't know how they'd vote; 7 percent say they're looking for someone not on our list. As for the list, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is the leader, with 25 percent, followed by former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, at 6 percent; former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul of Austin, 4 percent each; former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz and former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, 2 percent; and Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, 1 percent.

The Democrats have even more undecided voters, at 63 percent. The newest candidate in that conversation, retired Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, led the way, with 14 percent, followed by former U.S. Reps. Chet Edwards of Waco, 11 percent, and Chris Bell of Houston, at 7 percent; and former state Comptroller John Sharp, at 6 percent.

There is the first time I have seen McCaul's name mentioned in the contest to replace Kay Bailey that was speculation more significant than two drunk Republicans in a bar on 290. But he's one of two on that list (Dewhurst is the other) that can self-fund a $25 million Senate contest. Leppert and Cruz have already bragged about raising in excess of a million bucks each; Williams and Williams are just under that figure.

Bell likely isn't running for Senator, either; Sharp cancelled his fund-raising committee and let his Sharp for Senate domain comically expire months ago. There's no groundswell for Edwards that this blogger is aware of.  Only Sanchez -- whose campaign kick-off has been nearly as bad as Gingrich's -- is in and I surmise will remain the only serious entrant.

But really, why didn't they just throw Bill White's name up against the wall to see if it would stick?

When you're just pulling names out of your ass a hat, you're not seriously "polling the electorate". Whether because of past questionable methodology or plain old bad luck in timing, these Trib polls continue to reveal next to nothing of value.

They do, however, solidly reinforce the prevailing, decades-long narrative: that Democratic resistance is futile in this state. The GOP can screw up everything in Texas but their hold on a poorly-informed, brain-washed majority remains firm. In other words, the future remains grim.

Monday, May 23, 2011

The global oil market explained, in animated rap video

No really, it's good. It's NSFW but it executive-summarizes the topic quite well.

The After-Rapture Weekly Wrangle

The entire membership of the Texas Progressive Alliance was actually raptured this past weekend, but thanks to our foresight and the scheduling capabilities of our blogging software we were able to put together a weekly roundup for you anyway. Because that's the kind of bloggers we are.

The Lege reached a budget deal on Friday. Off the Kuff explains why it is a bad deal for Texas.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson, in stating that "... by and large, Republicans aren't as racist as they are greedy" makes the point that we must adopt a new form of populism in Texas.

At TexasKaos, lightseeker seeks to explain why snake oil is not a cure for evaluating teachers for purposes of improving public education. Check out Snake Oil, Classrooms and Teacher Evaluations.

Nat-Wu of Three Wise Men takes another in-depth look at Irving politics.

McBlogger notes that Democrats joined with Republicans in the House in a bipartisan effort to screw every Texan.

Public school funding and the Texas legislature get set to go back to the future -- as in litigation. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs finds a twelve-year-old column from Mollly Ivins that both rehashes and pre-cogs the details.

refinish69 at Doing My Part for the Left asks: WTF? President Obama is now talking Drill, Baby, Drill?

Neil at Texas Liberal noted a new study that said billions of planets are flying around the galaxy that are not in the orbit of any star.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Sign the petition against Keystone XL



Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has the ability to stop Koch Industries, Inc. from profiting off a pipeline that would carry the dirtiest oil on Earth through six states, one of America's most important aquifers and almost 2,000 miles of American homes and farmland. Sign the petition requesting she not approve it.

Previously:

The Keystone XL pipeline and Houston's air-quality future

Koch Brothers poised to win if Keystone XL pipeline approved

The eventual class-action lawsuit over Texas public school funding

This ought to be required reading by every state elected official -- state rep, senator, SCOTX justice, and especially the governor, lite guv, attorney general and all the rest.

Sen. Bob Deuell, R-Greenville, put a spotlight on the state’s grossly inequitable school funding system Friday night when he stood on the Senate floor and read a list of the highest and lowest school revenue amounts in each of Texas’ 31 senatorial districts.

Deuell’s  record could be part of the opening statement in the next school funding lawsuit, which is likely lurking around the corner. The state’s Constitution requires lawmakers to provide a free and efficient system of public education.

The landmark Edgewood case from the 1980s produced Texas Supreme Court rulings that school districts must get substantially similar revenue for similar tax rates.

But lawmakers have allowed the system to deteriorate to the point where a child’s school funding largely hinges on the zip code of his or her parents’ home. It would be interesting to see how the state defends that as a rational system for funding public education.

Deuell noted that the top 100 best funded school districts have property tax rates of $1, while the lowest 100 school districts  levy an average tax rate of $1.16.

The physician-senator read a list highlighting the lowest and highest revenue per student in each senatorial district.


Senate District 1 (Sen. Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler):  Lowest, $3,926; Highest, $6,981; Disparity, $3,055 per student.
Senate District 2 (Sen.  Bob Deuell, R-Greenville): Lowest, $4,576; Highest, $6,261; Disparity, $1,694.
Senate District 3 (Sen.  Robert Nichols, R-Jacksonville): Lowest, $4,407; Highest, $7,367; Disparity, $2,960.
Senate District 4 (Sen.  Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands): Lowest, $4,615; Highest, $7,064; Disparity, $2,449.
Senate District 5 (Sen.  Steve Ogden, R-Bryan): Lowest, $4,694; Highest, $8,646; Disparity, $3,952.
Senate District 6 (Sen.  Mario Gallegos, D-Houston): Lowest, $4,890; Highest, $5,668; Disparity, $778.
Senate District 7 (Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston): Lowest, $4,772; Highest, $6,024; Disparity, $1,252.
Senate District 8 (Sen.  Florence Shapiro, R-Plano): Lowest, $5,194; Highest, $7,418; Disparity, $2,224.
Senate District 9 (Sen.  Chris Harris, R-Arlington): Lowest, $4,836; Highest, $5,706; Disparity, $870.
Senate District 10 (Sen.  Wendy Davis,D-Ft.Worth): Lowest, $4,797; Highest, $6,880; Disparity, $2,083.
Senate District 11 (Sen.  Mike Jackson, R-LaPorte): Lowest, $4,863; Highest, $5,984; Disparity, $1,121.
Senate District 12 (Sen.  Jane Nelson, R-Flower Mound): Lowest, $4,770; Highest, $7,050; Disparity, $2,280.
Senate District 13 (Sen.  Rodney Ellis, D-Houston): Lowest, $4,890; Highest, $5,292; Disparity, $402.
Senate District 14 (Sen.  Kirk Watson, R-Austin): Lowest, $5,102; Highest, $6,282; Disparity, $1,180.
Senate District 15 (Sen.  John Whitmire, D-Houston): Lowest, $4,887; Highest, $6,459; Disparity, $1,572.
Senate District 16 (Sen.  John Carona, R-Dallas): Lowest, $4,780; Highest, $5,856; Disparity, $1,076.
Senate District 17 (Sen.  Joan Huffman, R-Southside Place): Lowest, $4,804; Highest, $6,876; Disparity, $2,072.
Senate District 18 (Sen.  Glenn Hagar, R-Katy): Lowest, $4,710; Highest, $7,935; Disparity, $3,225.
Senate District 19 (Sen.  Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio): Lowest, $3,831; Highest, $12,400; Disparity, $8,569.
Senate District 20 (Sen.  Chuy Hinojosa, D-McAllen): Lowest, $4,678; Highest, $9,548; Disparity, $4,870.
Senate District 21 (Sen.  Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo): Lowest, $3,732; Highest, $10,908; Disparity, $7,176.
Senate District 22 (Sen.  Brian Birdwell, R-Granbury): Lowest, $4,118; Highest, $7,750; Disparity, $3,632.
Senate District 23 (Sen.  Royce West, D-Dallas): Lowest, $4,884; Highest, $5,430; Disparity, $546.
Senate District 24 (Sen.  Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay): Lowest, $3,896; Highest, $6,864; Disparity, $2,968.
Senate District 25 (Sen.  Jeff  Wentworth, R-San Antonio): Lowest, $4,426; Highest, $6,109; Disparity, $1,683.
Senate District 26 (Sen.  Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio): Lowest, $3,759; Highest, $5,573; Disparity, $1,814.
Senate District 27 (Sen.  Eddie Lucio, D-Brownsville): Lowest, $4,304; Highest, $7,321; Disparity, $3,017.
Senate District 28 (Sen.  Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock): Lowest, $4,390; Highest, $12,979; Disparity, $8,589.
Senate District 29 (Sen.  Jose Rodriguez, D-El Paso): Lowest, $4,614; Highest, $5,083; Disparity, $469.
Senate District 30 (Sen.  Craig Estes, R-Wichita Falls): Lowest, $4,425; Highest, $7,488; Disparity, $3,063.
Senate District 31 (Sen.  Kyle Seliger, R-Amarillo): Lowest, $4,432; Highest, $12,387; Disparity, $7,955.

A difference of $1,000 per student can pile up quickly. That kind of disparity amounts to at least $25,000 per classroom.

No one disputed or discounted Deuell’s case. But the prevailing attitude is:  ”We’re doing the best we can do this session.”

It’s a theme also heard during the 2009 legislative session.

Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Ft. Worth, complimented Deuell for doing “a beautiful job of pointing out what’s broken about school funding in the state of Texas and why it so desperately needs to be fixed.”

The disparity has increased dramatically since 2006 when lawmakers reduced school property taxes but didn’t raise enough revenue to pay for it. Most school districts now receive funding based on what they got five years ago instead of formulas. It’s called a “target revenue” system, which lawmakers want to fix. But they didn’t want to use any of the remaining $6 billion plus in the state’s Rainy Day Fund, which again left them without funding to fix the broken system.

“To the life of me, I cannot understand why we would not use (the Rainy Day Fund) to help equalize this system,” Deuell  told his colleagues.

Lawmakers have set a goal of replacing the target revenue system by 2017. But it will be hard to reach the goal without additional funding – and with a structural revenue deficit that experts peg at $5 billion per year.

That’s another problem lawmakers continue to ignore.

“State and local taxes are not being used efficiently,” Deuell complained. That’s an admission the system violates the Texas Constitution.

This has been going on a long, long, time. Let's go back in time to this 2000 column by Molly Ivins for the historical -- as in mid-'80's to mid-'90's -- perspective.

Everyone knew that something would have to be done about equalizing spending on the public schools, and everyone knew it would be a long, hard fight.

Gov. Mark White had the singularly bright idea to name Ross Perot to head a commission on reforming the schools. Perot understood one important thing: We would never get Texans to pay more for public schools unless we could guarantee them better schools and prove that we were getting them. Thus the system of testing and accountability was born.

Perot put together a package of reform bills that mandated smaller class sizes and expanded pre-kindergarten programs — the most crucial reforms. Bob Bullock, then the state comptroller, worked out a formula for how the state could more equalize spending between rich and poor districts.

White called a special session to do nothing but education reform, and it was a donnybrook. One of Perot's reforms was "no-pass, no-play" — if you weren't passing all your school subjects, you couldn't play football! It was a revolutionary notion in Texas.

Lt. Gov. Bill Hobby did heavy lifting for the reforms. Perot hired his own lobbyists to help pass the bills. It was a tremendous effort and a narrow win. Then the state went broke.

The oil crash of the mid-'80s left Texas in bad shape, so the equalization formula didn't advance much. The Edgewood case was still dragging on, and in 1987, Edgewood won at last.

In 1989, Gov. Bill Clements had to sign a huge tax increase to fund the agreement to equalize spending. Then came Son of Edgewood, with the courts again siding with the poor districts. Gov. Ann Richards proposed the Robin Hood plan, taking from rich districts to give to the poor. Another horrendous fight. A modified version of Robin Hood finally passed.

What the Rand story found was that despite all the screaming and yelling, what Texas did is what works: smaller class sizes, early childhood education (though we still don't have kindergarten statewide) and equalized spending.

And here we are back again. Repeating history.

Which teaches us that some collection of sensible, reasonable Republicans like Deuell is going to have join Democrats and straighten this mess out again.

I'm just not going to hold my breath waiting for that to happen, though.