Responses from Evan Smith and Miya Shay

I posted about the Texas Tribune's wacky poll last week, and had a conversation with Tribune CEO Evan Smith yesterday afternoon prompted by it.

First, a correction: Farouk Shami was not included in their list of Democratic gubernatorial candidates, as I wrote. The candidates they DID poll included Kinky Friedman, Tom Schieffer, Felix Alvarado, Mark Thompson (who withdrew from the race and endorsed Hank Gilbert as the poll was concluding) and Ronnie Earle, who has still not declared for it.

Smith indicated to me that he retains confidence in the polling outfit, in fact that they will do additional polling for the Tribune in 2010. He also trusts the methodology of polling via internet, as compared for example to polling via telephone. He was quick to say that he did not trust it more, just that it was worthy of his trust. Here is an excerpt containing the Trib's explanation:

There is a lot of interest in our use of the internet for polling. There is a deep discussion of our method in the attached methodology section, and similar discussions for all the polls in the polling section at the Texas Politics website. For those who want to dig still deeper into the underlying statistical methods, the founder of the polling firm we use, Doug Rivers, has been a central figure in developing the matched random sampling methods for use over the internet, and weighed in on some of the issues being discussed in this post at Pollster.com in September. If you’re interested, you can trace the discussion backward and forward from this post, and get a detailed explanation of why the matched random sampling method is different from opt-in polls.

Smith also said, without my having to ask, that leaving Gilbert off the poll was "a f***up". He's certainly right about that.

And he is still confident in the poll's results, despite having instructed the pollsters to go back and re-poll the 266 respondents who indicated they would 'definitely' or 'probably' be voting in the Democratic primary to ask them if they would vote for Gilbert.

I am not. There is no alternate reality in which Mark Thompson could have gotten ten times the number of supporters than Gilbert did. At best, the poll's result had been compromised by the omission-and-then-late-addition of Gilbert's name. As well, including Farouk Shami as a polling option would have been as reasonable as including Ronnie Earle. With all of those errors and omissions, and especially since Thompson has now withdrawn (he was reported to be considering it even as the poll was concluding), I find the Democratic portion of the Texas Tribune's poll to be simply invalid.

My last question for Smith was relative to Rick Perry's twelve-point lead over Kay Bailey, and I offered a premise (which Smith did not necessarily agree with): could his poll's higher numbers for the governor possibly reflect a coalescing of the conservative base specifically in reaction to October's news surrounding the Todd Willingham case? Smith would not grant that but did note that Perry is very probably stronger with the prototypical GOP primary voter. I agree with that much.

The Trib won't conduct another poll until after the first of the year, according to Smith, so my humble O is that we will have to look elsewhere for some indications about how the governor's race is shaping up.

And Miya Shay posted the following to me at my Facebook wall in response to this post:

Hey Perry, I read your blog about my blog..Thanks for commenting! I just wanted you to know that i wasn't impressed or complimenting Kaufman. If you read the blog, I was simply stating a fact that her tactic may be effective. It doesn't mean I support it or oppose it.. I am just being realistic. thanks

Sorry, Miya. That won't wash.

Not too long ago (perhaps before you were born, I don't know) the media's role was that of watchdog for the public against the powerful. The media won Pulitzers for that work when they did it relentlessly and well. When elected officials breach their public trust and attempt to corrupt the process -- in fact the free choice -- of the voters then it is, or used to be, the media's job to call them out about it. Not simply observe it, and certainly not to marvel at it.

Maybe some other member of the local media will choose that role, since you appear unwilling to take it on.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance hopes everyone had a happy Election Day last week, and is already looking forward to the next one. Here are this week's highlights.

TXsharon continues to report from a backyard in the Barnett Shale. Despite all the local and national press on drilling related toxins, carcinogens and neurotoxins in our air, Aruba Petroleum Refuses a Simple Step to Improve Barnett Shale Air and thereby recklessly and willfully endangers public health and safety. Read it on Bluedaze: DRILLING REFORM FOR TEXAS.

refinish69 announces his endorsement for the Democratic nominee for Texas governor at Doing My Part For The Left. The progressive choice has to be Hank Gilbert with his policy issues and especially his strong stance on GLBT issues. Hank Gilbert for Texas Governor was the only choice refinish69 could make.

Justin at Asian American Action Fund Blog has a thorough take on the results of election day in Houston.

The Texas Cloverleaf provides an election night roundup of some of D-FW's races you never heard of, and some national ones you have.

If you dislike Rep. Dennis Kucinich as much as Mayor McSleaze, there's probably something right with you.

quizas of South Texas Chisme notes that Galveston medical facilities are among those not notifying about rules for the poor, while CouldBeTrue notes South Texas Democrats join Republicans in shafting poor women. Shame on them.

BossKitty at TruthHugger Let me "dis" the local Austin TV news media who gets around to breaking the health care reform bill news TWO and a half hours later. Hooray for the House, but Austin just lives in a bubble.

Over at BlueBloggin, nytexan takes a long look at another disgusting practice of our medical insurance industry: We Have One Twisted Health System, Living Organ Donors Beware. The organ donor's family is never charged for donating. The family is charged for the cost of all final efforts to save your life, and those costs are sometimes misinterpreted as costs related to organ donation. Surprise for organ donors: unexpected medical bills. An Austin man who gave a kidney to co-worker is one of many who have faced health complications and billing problems.

Bay Area Houston says Hispanics, the largest voting block in Texas, are not voting.

WhosPlayin learned of an illegal meeting of Lewisville ISD trustees this past Thursday and Friday, and has video of trustees mentioning this blogger when discussing whether to implement video recording of trustee meetings.

Vince at Capitol Annex takes a look at an interesting story about Judge Sharon Keller that was eclipsed by the tragedy at Fort Hood.

Off the Kuff has six questions for the runoffs in Houston.

Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman toes the ethical line with her active promotion of an assistant for her job, and the local media thinks that's just fine. Get the details in PDiddie's Brains and Eggs.

At TexasKaos, Libby Shaw has news for John Cornyn and Pete Sessions about the Republican Resurgence. As she notes:

I wouldn't gloat too much, boys. Your job in Washington just got a lot harder. Meanwhile back here at home -- in case you boys forgot that Houston is the largest city in Texas -- three progressive Democrats and one Republican ran for mayor. The Republican dude and the old white guy with boatloads of bucks lost. The run-off race is between a gay woman and an African American male.

See the rest here: I have news for John Cornyn and Pete Sessions

WCNews at Eye On Williamson reports on the local toll authority's latest shenanigans: CTRMA to jack up tolls on 183-A, add automatic annual increases.

Neil at Texas Liberal bought Thanksgiving cards drawn by a young person with cancer who is being treated at Houston's M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. The design Neil bought is both bleak and hopeful.

There was much rejoicing this week at Texas Vox and among the environmental community at large when it was announced that Dr. Al Armendariz was named new Region 6 Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. A Texas EPA administrator that "embodies the "Principles for Environmental Leadership and Real Change"? You better believe it.

FOX News election night coverage

Sunday Funnies

Kaufman's apprentice gets boost for Clerk

I speculated previously about two people working for Beverly Kaufman who might be line up to run for her position in 2010 but Miya Shay found the true teacher's pet:

When (Kaufman) announced her retirement, I assumed there would be a jockeying of candidates from both Democrats and Republicans. On the Dem side, several names have been bantered about, including Sue Schechter. On the Republican side, while there have been talk of several semi-notables, the main guy is shaping up to be Kevin Mauzy. Who is he? Mauzy has been Kaufman's chief deputy for years, and Kaufman quickly endorsed him as HER choice.

As previously blogged, I spent many late election evenings in the Harris County Clerk's ballot cave over the past couple of years, and not only did I never meet Mauzy, I never even heard of him before this. But let's allow Miya to continue ...

Yesterday, while covering Prof. Barton Smith's bi-annual chat about the Houston economy, I ran into Kaufman and Mauzy at the luncheon.

"Are you trying to get Mauzy in front of the TV cameras so he'll have an advantage?" I asked.

"Isn't it obvious what I'm trying to do?" Kaufman answered with a big grin. "It's called earned media, it's very important."

We chatted a bit more about Kaufman's plan. Basically, during the run-up to the November election, she tried to hand over every on camera media request to Mauzy. she (sic) plans to continue doing that as we get closer to the December run-off. The idea is to give Mauzy free TV exposure, and valuable name ID. In addition, since most of the questions asked by the media are mundane, uncontroversial clerk stuff, it's easy to sound like you know what's going on.

Basically, Kaufman's trying to give Mauzy the "air of incumbency" without being an incumbent or an elected official. This is not illegal, and it just might work. Think about every media outlet that will need an interview or a quote about voter turnout or polling hours between now and next March. If Mauzy's the one giving the information, then that's an advantage his opponents can't buy. It will help stave off Republican contenders, and force Democratic challengers into an even more uphill battle.

Let's pause for a moment here.

The Harris County Clerk, the person responsible for administering elections in the nation's third most populous county, is -- once again -- using her office to influence voter opinion to her choice, this time for the person who would succeed her. And Shay, a hard-working member of the ABC affiliate in Houston covering the political beat, is favorably impressed by this?

If you wanted an example of political corruption enabled by a compliant corporate media, you would be hard-pressed to find a better one.

Read the comments and you'll note that a GOP precinct chair isn't too fond of the idea, either. Then again Mr. Large has been in the news over his, ah, issues with other Republican candidates also.

Bachmann Teabagger Overdrive

Brad Friedman (he coined the header used here) and Richard Blair link to the photo at yesterday's latest protest against health care, where this poster appeared ...



The red lettering in the photo reads: "National Socialist Health Care: Dachau, Germany – 1945". Pasted over a stack of concentration camp corpses.

House Republican leadership in attendance at the rally where this poster was displayed, near the front and center of the stage, included John Boehner -- who mistook the Declaration of Independence for the Constitution -- and Eric Cantor, who also happens to be Jewish.

How much is too much?

That wacky Texas Tribune poll

The one with Rick Perry ahead of Kay Bailey 42-30? Not just obviously flawed, not simply bogus, but a whiff of deception on the part of the Texas political sphere's shiny new model.

First of all, Polling Point simply doesn't have the chops to to perform this research. They are a sign-up-and-vote-online outfit. Even Zogby has more credibility. If the Tribbers were going to spend tens of thousands of their dollars on a poll, they should have picked one with a better methodology, or at least a more visible reputation.

Secondly, while PP had Ronnie Earle and Farouk Shami as Democratic choices for governor -- officially neither one is in the race, until Tuesday that is for Shami -- Hank Gilbert was not, at least for most of the "polling period". That's just incompetent. Gilbert has had ten times the online and offline visibility of both Earle and Shami combined. Gilbert has been on a statewide ballot before, in fact was the state's second-highest Democratic vote collector in 2006.

Someone at the Tribune must have known all this, and just flat-out blew it. Or God forbid, something worse.

Third, Wayne Slater and Glenn Smith and even Paul Burka have all questioned the poll's veracity. Burka's slow, but when even he gets it...

Fourth, Evan Smith is purportedly aggressively defensive about the poll. Protests and methinking and all that.

So with that many black marks against it, why run with it (besides the obvious, which is that they spent thousands of dollars on it)?

It's a shame the Texas Tribune opened with such a stinkbomb. They need to hold themselves to a higher standard than this going forward. If it's accurate that some of those folks writing over there are pulling down 90K, they suddenly have a lot farther distance to go to earn it.

RG Ratcliffe excerpts Kay Bailey's response. This is probably the last time I will ever agree with her.

Ed. note: The Texas Tribune poll did not include Shami as a candidate. I regret the error.

Two outta three ain't bad for the Right

But they still lost a seat in Congress they had held for over a hundred years:

President Barack Obama's decision in June to appoint a Republican congressman to a Pentagon post has paid dividends in November now that Democrats have gained the House seat by capitalizing on a split between moderates and conservatives in the GOP.

Lawyer and retired Air Force Capt. Bill Owens won the special election Tuesday in northern New York in which the Republican candidate withdrew over the weekend under pressure from the party's right wing and GOP heavyweights endorsed the Conservative Party nominee.

The teabaggers stepped up to the pump and promptly spilled gasoline all over the shoes.

With 92 percent of the precincts reporting early Wednesday, Owens defeated businessman Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, 49 percent to 45 percent, after a boost from unified labor efforts in the last days of the campaign.

The GOP had represented the region for more than a century. Republican John McHugh vacated the seat to become Army secretary.

Owens thanked one-time opponent Dierdre Scozzafava, a moderate Republican who exited the race Saturday after Republicans criticized her support of abortion rights and same-sex marriage and Hoffman surged past her in the polls. Scozzafava, an assemblywoman in the state legislature, picked up 6 percent of the vote herself.

The race received national attention, with some calling it a referendum on Obama and others saying it could help Republicans focus their message to attract more people to the party.

Owens defeated Hoffman despite a voter registration edge of 45,000 for Republicans and big-name endorsements for Hoffman from former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, former Republican Sen. Fred Thompson and others.

Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine were damaged goods. Deeds was woefully incompetent, losing to McDonnell a second time (the VA attorney general race in 2005 was the first) and Corzine, who was also in the US Senate before the governor's office, had worn out his welcome with New Jerseyites. He had job approval ratings in the 30s. Both men should have lost.

But NY-23 was where the GOP Palintologists wanted to stake their claim, and they choked. That won't be what you hear on teevee today, though. You'll hear a whole lot of "referendum on Obama" bullshit.

Damned liberal media.

Three point two million down the drain

All that money and he barely outdrew Roy Morales.

The unpredictable and unorthodox race for Houston mayor narrowed Tuesday to a choice between a veteran City Hall insider trying to become Houston's first openly gay leader and a former civil rights activist hoping to become only the second African-American to run the nation's fourth-largest city.

City Controller Annise Parker and former City Attorney Gene Locke, the two candidates originally predicted by many to prevail at the race's outset, face each other in a Dec. 12 runoff.

Roy. Freaking. Morales.

(T)he big surprise of the night was the strong showing by Roy Morales, the race's only conservative. The retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, who ran with virtually no money and no endorsements compared to his opponents, placed only a few percentage points behind City Councilman Peter Brown, who poured more than $3.2 million of his family fortune into his candidacy.

All of the teevee ads, all of the forests of dead trees who sacrificed their lives for his direct mail pieces, and all of Marc Campos' bleating about it came to naught.

The old axiom about choosing between a real Republican and a pretend one is only partly true in this case -- more people still chose Brown, but barely. Both his and Morales' endorsement will be sought (read: pandered to) over the next five weeks. Let's watch how hard Gene Locke runs to the right in the run-off. Will Beverly Kaufman endorse him a second time?

Meanwhile in the city council races, a pretend Democrat -- Stephen Costello -- did get into a run-off with a real one -- Karen Derr. A couple of incumbents, Sue Lovell and Jo Jones, will have to fight to keep their jobs next month. CO Bradford resurrects his political career after losing the very close Harris County DA race in 2008 with an outright win in Peter Brown's vacated council seat. And the controller's contest heads to a runoff with Ronald Green and MJ Khan barely eliminating Pam Holm.

Two Progressive Coalition candidates, Deb Shafto and Don Cook, managed double-digit vote percentages but missed the run-off.

More fun still to come, and if you want more excruciating detail, Kuffner and Muse and Wythe are where you want to be.

Ten things to watch tonight in the returns

My poll duty completed, I'll excerpt and link this from Richard Dunham in the Chron's DC bureau regarding election results this evening. (It leans a little too much to the right, but -- as we always do in Houston, a blue city inside a purple county in the middle of a red state -- we'll roll with it.) Let's start with #5, #6, and #7, since they are locally relevant ...

5. Breakthroughs for gays and lesbians?
Gay and lesbian groups are looking closely at elections in Houston and Maine. In Houston, City Controller Annise Parker is trying to win a spot in a mayoral runoff. If elected, she would become the first out-of-the-closet lesbian to run a major American city. In Maine, voters will decide whether to overturn the legislature's endorsement of same-sex marriage. Note: Gay marriage has been defeated in every single statewide election thus far. Will today be any different?

I predict 'yes, today will'.

6. Will Houston elect a City Council member as its mayor?

It's been 41 years since a former councilman was elected mayor. Remember Jim McConn? So while Peter Brown leads in the polls and has deep pockets, history is not on his side.

7. What will happen to the supporters of Houston's third- and fourth-place finishers?

Only two candidates in Houston's race to replace outgoing Mayor Bill White can make a runoff, and the losers' supporters could play a pivotal role in the runoff. Roy Morales is the only conservative Republican in the race and, if he loses today, his supporters could be decisive in a close race. Likewise, Gene Locke or Peter Brown's African- American backers or Annise Parker's community activists could tip the balance.

My prediction, like Muse's, is Parker and Brown in a run-off, with the Locke and Morales endorsements as high up in the air as tonight's finish.

1. Can the GOP “sweep” the Big Three races of the day?

Those are the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races and the special U.S. House election in upstate New York. Virginia's a gimme. State Attorney General Bob McDonnell is headed toward a landslide win — despite Obama's fairly high approval ratings in the Old Dominion. New Jersey is a toss-up. And the Republican has actually dropped out of New York's 23rd District race (and endorsed the Democrat). GOP hopes are pinned to the candidacy of Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman. If conservatives are charged up and beat the Dems in all three of these races, you can't help but call it a very bad day for Obama.

Two out of three -- Virginia and New York, but not New Jersey -- will still be interpreted as 'not bad' for the Repubes.

Rest here.

Election Day Wrangle

The day before, anyway. The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds you to -- wherever in Texas (or elsewhere) you happen to be -- get out and vote tomorrow. Here are this week's highlights.

Aruba Petroleum is drilling a Barnett Shale gas well in the backyard of Tim and Christine. Their property was taken, its value diminished, they were threatened and now Aruba Petroleum spilled toxic drilling waste a few feet from where their daughter plays. Another tale (with video) about the victims of the Shale on Bluedaze: DRILLING REFORM FOR TEXAS.

Justin at Asian-American Action Fund Blog has a roundup of the Houston city elections and proposed Texas constitutional amendments.

The Texas Cloverleaf looks at the high cost of low turnout elections by examining Denton County. $25 a vote, anyone?

This week at McBlogger, we took a look at Hank Gilbert's plan to Get Texas Moving Again.

Big news from San Antonio, where with just days before City Council was to vote to move forward with the South Texas Nuclear Project expansion, officials suddenly announced that the cost estimate for the project had ballooned by up to $4 billion! Find out more from Citizen Sarah over at Texas Vox.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson posts on the Texas' GOP leadership that thinks our state's economy is just fine: Dunnam hammers Perry, Dewhurst -- GOP needs to face rality on economy in Texas. They'll be singing a different tune when they're out of work in 2011.

TEXPAC, the Texas Medical Association's political action committee, hosted a forum where all six declared US Senate candidates -- John Sharp, Bill White, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Florence Shapiro, Michael Williams, and Roger Williams -- made an appearance. See the videos posted by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston wonders: What does it take for a Republican to resign?

Off the Kuff takes a look at how Houston's mayoral candidates are spending their money.

At WhosPlayin, Trace makes his case for why we need to talk to Iran.

Mean Rachel wonders why Texas Democratic statewide candidates have electile dysfunction.

At TexasKaos, liberaltexan brings us up to date on Republican efforts to "fight liberalism" on the A&M campus, and it ain't pretty. Check it out : Young, Conservative, and Intolerant.

At WhosPlayin, Trace makes his case for why we need to talk to Iran.

Mean Rachel wonders why Texas Democratic statewide candidates have Electile Dysfunction.

At TexasKaos, liberaltexan brings us up to date on Republican efforts to "fight liberalism" on the A&M campus, and it ain't pretty. Check it out : Young, Conservative, and Intolerant.

This week Teddy at Left of College Station writes about the young, conservative, and intolerant Texas A&M Chapter of the Young Conservatives of Texas and about the lies and misinformation that the Coalition for Life gives to women in front of Planned Parenthood. Check out the videos posted from President Obama's visit to Texas A&M including an interview with a Texas A&M student, a rant from a member of the Texas Minuteman, and highlights from the anti-Obama protest.

Sunday Funnies