Three point two million down the drain

All that money and he barely outdrew Roy Morales.

The unpredictable and unorthodox race for Houston mayor narrowed Tuesday to a choice between a veteran City Hall insider trying to become Houston's first openly gay leader and a former civil rights activist hoping to become only the second African-American to run the nation's fourth-largest city.

City Controller Annise Parker and former City Attorney Gene Locke, the two candidates originally predicted by many to prevail at the race's outset, face each other in a Dec. 12 runoff.

Roy. Freaking. Morales.

(T)he big surprise of the night was the strong showing by Roy Morales, the race's only conservative. The retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, who ran with virtually no money and no endorsements compared to his opponents, placed only a few percentage points behind City Councilman Peter Brown, who poured more than $3.2 million of his family fortune into his candidacy.

All of the teevee ads, all of the forests of dead trees who sacrificed their lives for his direct mail pieces, and all of Marc Campos' bleating about it came to naught.

The old axiom about choosing between a real Republican and a pretend one is only partly true in this case -- more people still chose Brown, but barely. Both his and Morales' endorsement will be sought (read: pandered to) over the next five weeks. Let's watch how hard Gene Locke runs to the right in the run-off. Will Beverly Kaufman endorse him a second time?

Meanwhile in the city council races, a pretend Democrat -- Stephen Costello -- did get into a run-off with a real one -- Karen Derr. A couple of incumbents, Sue Lovell and Jo Jones, will have to fight to keep their jobs next month. CO Bradford resurrects his political career after losing the very close Harris County DA race in 2008 with an outright win in Peter Brown's vacated council seat. And the controller's contest heads to a runoff with Ronald Green and MJ Khan barely eliminating Pam Holm.

Two Progressive Coalition candidates, Deb Shafto and Don Cook, managed double-digit vote percentages but missed the run-off.

More fun still to come, and if you want more excruciating detail, Kuffner and Muse and Wythe are where you want to be.

Ten things to watch tonight in the returns

My poll duty completed, I'll excerpt and link this from Richard Dunham in the Chron's DC bureau regarding election results this evening. (It leans a little too much to the right, but -- as we always do in Houston, a blue city inside a purple county in the middle of a red state -- we'll roll with it.) Let's start with #5, #6, and #7, since they are locally relevant ...

5. Breakthroughs for gays and lesbians?
Gay and lesbian groups are looking closely at elections in Houston and Maine. In Houston, City Controller Annise Parker is trying to win a spot in a mayoral runoff. If elected, she would become the first out-of-the-closet lesbian to run a major American city. In Maine, voters will decide whether to overturn the legislature's endorsement of same-sex marriage. Note: Gay marriage has been defeated in every single statewide election thus far. Will today be any different?

I predict 'yes, today will'.

6. Will Houston elect a City Council member as its mayor?

It's been 41 years since a former councilman was elected mayor. Remember Jim McConn? So while Peter Brown leads in the polls and has deep pockets, history is not on his side.

7. What will happen to the supporters of Houston's third- and fourth-place finishers?

Only two candidates in Houston's race to replace outgoing Mayor Bill White can make a runoff, and the losers' supporters could play a pivotal role in the runoff. Roy Morales is the only conservative Republican in the race and, if he loses today, his supporters could be decisive in a close race. Likewise, Gene Locke or Peter Brown's African- American backers or Annise Parker's community activists could tip the balance.

My prediction, like Muse's, is Parker and Brown in a run-off, with the Locke and Morales endorsements as high up in the air as tonight's finish.

1. Can the GOP “sweep” the Big Three races of the day?

Those are the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races and the special U.S. House election in upstate New York. Virginia's a gimme. State Attorney General Bob McDonnell is headed toward a landslide win — despite Obama's fairly high approval ratings in the Old Dominion. New Jersey is a toss-up. And the Republican has actually dropped out of New York's 23rd District race (and endorsed the Democrat). GOP hopes are pinned to the candidacy of Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman. If conservatives are charged up and beat the Dems in all three of these races, you can't help but call it a very bad day for Obama.

Two out of three -- Virginia and New York, but not New Jersey -- will still be interpreted as 'not bad' for the Repubes.

Rest here.