The political implications of Gustav

The human implications of this monster hurricane are immense -- 80 people have already died in the Carribean -- but we will stick to the political implications here. First, most people living far from the Gulf Coast have already forgotten Katrina and Rita; this will remind them. The media will no doubt trot out all the photos of a happy President Bush in sunny Arizona ignoring the drowning city because he was too busy celebrating John McCain's 69th birthday. In case they forget, here is the photo from the official White House website.

Second, if the storm hits Tuesday, it will be smack in the middle of the Republican National Convention. Normally, that would be the only news story of the week, but it will have to compete with news of drowning people on the Gulf Coast. This diverts attention from the Republican's message of national security and focuses everyone on domestic affairs, such as the government's role in helping people. The Republicans core message of low taxes and less government may not go over so well juxtaposed with photos of old people on their roofs pleading for help from the government while the Republicans are busy saying that free markets solve problems far better than government bureaucrats. Heck-of-a-Job Brownie may get another 15 minutes of fame.

Third, depending on the actual path the storm takes, it could hit oil rigs and refineries. Heaven forbid there is an accident that causes an oil spill. That would remind people of why the Democrats oppose off-shore drilling. On the other hand, if there are no accidents, the Republicans will say: "If off-shore oil rigs can withstand this, they can withstand anything." In any event, rigs and refineries are likely to shut down, reducing the supply and driving up gas prices in the next few months, something that will remind the voters of the economy, in case they had forgotten.

Fourth, under federal law, the person in charge of handling natural disasters in a state is the governor. He can call up the National Guard, ask for federal help, or whatever he wants, but he's the boss. The governor of Louisiana is now a Republican, Piyush "Bobby" Jindal. Last time around, the botched response was coordinated by a Democrat, Kathleen Blanco. If Jindal does a great job and the evacuation goes smoothly, help arrives on time, and nobody dies, the Republicans will be crowing about their management skills and that the real problem last time was that a Democrat was running the show. However, Jindal is only 37 and has been governor for scarcely 8 months, even less time than the Republican vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin. If Jindal messes up, the Democrats will be saying: "It's more of the same." To say that McCain's political fortunes rest on Jindal's ability to cope with disasters is not entirely true, but it will be a big factor. Unlike Blanco last time, Jindal is surely fully aware of what is about to happen and the potential consequences of failing to handle it.

John McCain's been saying his prayers, but if I were a Christian I would be tempted to say -- especially after we witness the damage of an 18-25 storm surge where the levees are 9-13 feet -- that God doesn't care what John McCain wants.

And if Gustav had hit a week earlier, we would no doubt have heard a few Republican pastors proclaiming that God was delivering His Retribution to the Democrats, indeed the United States, for supporting the evils of abortion, homosexuality, etc.

I doubt we will hear any of that "God is punishing us because of the GOP" from any pastors on either side this week. More, with my bold emphasis:

For better or worse, all five potentially affected states have Republican governors: Rick Perry in Texas, Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, Haley Barbour in Mississippi, Bob Riley in Alabama, and Charlie Crist in Florida. If they do a good job getting help where it is needed, they will get the credit; if they don't they will get the blame. It is likely that all of them will skip the convention and stay home. In an odd way, the hurricane might actually have a silver lining for the Republicans. The Democrats spent all of last week yelling: "McCain is Bush III." Having Bush speak at the convention, as scheduled reinforces their point. However McCain could hardly have told Bush to stay home since that would infuriate the 30% of the country that still supports him. Enter St. Gustav stage left. McCain could now announce that much as he wants Bush to speak at his convention, for the good of the country, Bush should go tour the Gulf Coast to help the poor people there. This solves two problems: keeping Bush away from Minnesota without McCain getting blamed for it and having Bush appear to be on top of the situation at the hurricane site in an attempt to wipe out the bad memories of his doing nothing when Katrina struck.

So when Karl Rove says that the Republicans can't catch a break with the weather in August, he's just being a stupid asshole again.

EV 8/31: some movement for Obama

The polling that moved NV and CO back to blue and OH into the tossup column this week occurred during the DNC convention, so it can't really reflect a convention bounce but rather a Biden one. The effect of Obama's soaring speech to 40 million Americans last Thursday night -- that was more than saw the opening ceremonies of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing -- as well as the pick by McCain of Elaine Benes from Seinfeld Sarah Palin of Alaska is yet to be reflected in the polls.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Sunday Funnies (Pre-Gustav edition)

It's hard work finding something to laugh about on this last day before New Orleans is destroyed for the second time in three years. At least John McCain isn't going to spend another birthday eating cake while an American city drowns; he's taking Sarah Palin to Jackson, MS so she can see some black people for the first time.

Gidget Goes to Washington

Admit it; that was your first thought too. Well perhaps the second one, after "Who?"



The humor was flowing early and rapidly this morning:

McCain-Phailin' '08
Tina Fey's SNL skits guaranteed to be classics
McOld-Barely Legal (to be president) '08
McCain-Milf '08
McCain-Pale-in-Comparison

And then there's this:



Who is this poor little girl McCain plucked out of Alaskan obscurity to demolish his only rationale for not electing Obama? Someone quite clueless about the role of the vice-presidency, for openers. Just last month, Palin said:

“As for that VP talk all the time, I’ll tell you, I still can’t answer that question until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the VP does every day? I’m used to being very productive and working real hard in an administration. We want to make sure that that VP slot would be a fruitful type of position, especially for Alaskans and for the things that we’re trying to accomplish up here for the rest of the U.S., before I can even start addressing that question.”

MSNBC's Chuck Todd reported that Kay Bailey was "furious" about the choice. Two senior advisers to Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney felt "rudely strung along and manipulated".

What is known about Palin is that she a creationist, a gun nut, she's virulently anti-choice for women -- no abortion even in cases of rape or incest -- and she thinks polar bears should not be on the endangered species list.

That's not funny. But this is:

HE is an ex-POW turned multimillionaire. He has power, wealth, and more houses than most people have ties. But can anything -- or anyone -- calm his savage temper, and teach him to love again?

SHE's a young creationist who knows little about politics and is in trouble with the law. He'll take her in -- but can he teach her the ways of Washington before she embarrasses him at the big Telecom Ball?

Find out this fall on Dharma and Methuselah ...

Eight has been more than enough

"Barney Smith, and not Smith Barney" nearly stole the show in the run-up to the headliner. There was also "McCain can afford those $400.00 shoes, but America can't afford McCain's Flip-Flops".

I think my personal favorite however was:

It's time for them to own their failure.

Yeah. Way past time.

So there's no need to post another pretty picture or excerpts. If you saw it or heard it you get it; if you didn't you don't. Like most everything else about the campaign, it was an historical event. Here's a take from David Sirota on the populist message Obama communicated:

If his convention speech tonight is any indication, Barack Obama has (finally) signaled that progressive economic populism is going to be the central thrust of Democrats campaign in the stretch run of the 2008 election.

The speech is probably the most populist national speech Obama has given....

(H)e knows that Democrats have won red-states like Ohio not by pretending to be Royalist Republicans, but by being economic populists and tapping into the uprising (in fact, Obama himself invoked uprising language explicitly tonight, saying, "Change happens because the American people demand it - because they rise up.")

That his newfound courage is partially rooted in election opportunism doesn't negate its value. If he continues with this kind of posture, he not only will win the election, but will create a mandate that helps force an Obama administration to fulfill the economic promises it is making. And that more than anything would, indeed, mean real change.

In GOP news, wait for the announcement today of McSame's running mate and whether or not the Republicans will postpone their convention because of Hurricane Gustav.

The Republicks don't like you either, Lieberman

Mark me down here as falling-on-the-floor-laughing:

Republican strategist Karl Rove called Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) late last week and urged him to contact John McCain to withdraw his name from vice presidential consideration, according to three sources familiar with the conversation.

Of course Mighty Joe stood up to the Rove-Beast:

Lieberman dismissed the request, these sources agreed.

Lieberman “laughed at the suggestion and certainly did not call [McCain] on it,” said one source familiar with the details.

“Rove called Lieberman,” recounted a second source. “Lieberman told him he would not make that call.”

Rove did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Rove, President Bush’s former top campaign adviser and arguably the most prominent political operative of the past generation, has no formal role in McCain’s campaign. But he knows much of the Arizona senator’s high command and has been offering informal advice, both over the phone and in his position as a Fox News analyst, since McCain wrapped up the GOP nomination.

The Rover has been trumpeting $200 Million Dollar Man (and owner of three houses his own self) Mittens Romney for the pick, to be announced at any moment in order to blunt the Obamamentum of tonight's acceptance speech ...

“Rove is pushing Romney so aggressively some folks are beginning to wonder what's going on,” grumbled one veteran Republican strategist.

From his perch on Fox, Rove has touted McCain’s fierce primary rival as strong vice presidential material.

“Romney is already vetted by the media, has strong executive experience both in business and in government, has an interesting story to tell with saving the U.S. Olympics, and also helps McCain deal with the economy, because he can speak to the economy with a fluency that McCain doesn’t have,” Rove said on “Fox News Sunday” in June.

The sources spoke about Rove’s involvement after Robert Novak, writing his first column since being diagnosed with brain cancer, reported Wednesday that McCain and some of his close associates would like to tap Lieberman for the number two slot but that putting an abortion-rights-supporting former Democrat on the Republican ticket was likely to be unrealistic.

Gasp. Novak's not dead yet? Can you just see that ghastly countenance propped up in a cancer ward, phone in one ear, banging out a column not on a laptop but a 1940's typewriter?

This development is too bad/so sad for Kay Bailey's hopes, I suppose.

Blue Dogs cuddle up with AT&T in Denver

This is the kind of bullshit that just deflates all the good things I have watched and read about this week:

(Last Monday) night in Denver, at the Mile High Station -- next to Invesco Stadium, where Barack Obama will address a crowd of 30,000 people on Thursday night -- AT&T threw a lavish, private party for Blue Dog House Democrats, virtually all of whom blindly support whatever legislation the telecom industry demands and who also, specifically, led the way this July in immunizing AT&T and other telecoms from the consequences for their illegal participation in the Bush administration's warrantless spying program. Matt Stoller has one of the listings for the party here.

Glenn Greenwald tried to get in but no media was allowed. He spoke to people entering the event who refused to identify themselves (except for one Republican). One of the party's feted was not anonymous: Steny Hoyer, House Majority Leader. Let's go to Think Progress ...

Hoyer was “the point man” in negotiations over the new FISA law that Congress passed and Bush signed last month. He helped secure retroactive immunity for the telecommunications companies (including AT&T), thereby condoning their participation in Bush’s illegal spying program.

This is what roasts me about those Democrats who vote like, act like, party with, and generally speaking aren't much different from Republicans. They have sold themselves out to the corporations.

That's fascism, people.

Once we get unobstructible majorities in the House and Senate next year -- and with a Democratic president -- can we expect them to act any differently? As in governing for the people and not the powerful?

Why do I get the impression it will be even more difficult to hold their feet to the fire on, say ... offshore drilling?

Joe Biden, George McCain, and Sigmund Freud

Let me make this pledge to you right here and now. For every American who is trying to do the right thing, for all those people in government who are honoring their pledge to uphold the law and honor the Constitution, no longer will you hear the eight most dreaded words in the English language: "The Vice President's office is on the phone."

Nice left jab, Joe. Nice shout-out to your mother, too:

Failure at some point in your life is inevitable, but giving up is unforgivable. As a child I stuttered, and she lovingly would look at me and told me, "Joey, it's because you're so bright you can't get the thoughts out quickly enough." When I was not as well dressed as the other kids, she told me, "Joey, you're so handsome honey, you're so handsome." And when I got knocked down by guys bigger than me, and this is the God's truth, she sent me back out the street and told me, "Bloody their nose so you can walk down the street the next day." And that's what I did.

After the accident, she told me, "Joey, God sends no cross that you cannot bear." And when I triumphed, my mother was quick to remind me it was because of others.

My mother's creed is the American creed: No one is better than you. Everyone is your equal, and everyone is equal to you.

Selfishness and greed and the conservative mantra of "I-got-mine-and-fuck-all-y'all" is going back into the minority, where it belongs. His Freudian slip was showing here:

I can almost hear the conversation they're having at their kitchen table after they put their kids to bed. Like millions of Americans, they're asking questions as ordinary as they are profound. Questions they never ever thought they'd have to ask themselves:

—Should mom move in with us now that dad is gone?

—Fifty, sixty, seventy dollars just to fill up the gas tank?

—How in God's name, with winter coming, how are we gonna heat the home?

—Another year, no raise?

—Did you hear? Did you hear they may be cutting our health care at the company?

—Now, now we owe more on the house than it's worth. How in God's name are we going to send the kids to college?

—How are we gonna retire?

You know folks, that's the America that George Bush has left us, and that's the America we'll continue to get if George — excuse me, if John McCain is elected president of the United States of America. Freudian slip! Freudian slip!

Change, or more of the same? Pretty easy choice to make in November, I think.

Big Dog in da howse

He drives some of us wild and most of them nuts -- like they aren't already -- and last night he threw his support to Obama while at the same time throwing McLame under the bus:

The delegates stood on their feet and roared for nearly 3 1/2 minutes when Clinton walked on stage. The former president basked in their affection, but after several false starts at his speech, commanded: "Sit down!"

Actually it was more request than command: "Y'all sit down! We gotta get this show on the road!"

“The campaign generated so much heat, it increased global warming,” he said of the primaries. “In the end, my candidate didn’t win. But I’m very proud of the campaign she ran: She never quit on the people she stood up for, on the changes she pushed for, on the future she wants for all our children.”

And a few more excerpts, courtesy Ted:

In this decade, American workers have consistently given us rising productivity. That means, year after year, they work harder and produce more. Now, what did they get in return? Declining wages, less than one-fourth as many new jobs as in the previous eight years, smaller health care and pension benefits, rising poverty, and the biggest increase in income inequality since the 1920s. American families by the millions are struggling with soaring health care costs and declining coverage.

----------

They took us from record surpluses to an exploding debt; from over 22 million new jobs to just 5 million; from increasing working families' incomes to nearly $7,500 a year to a decline of more than $2,000 a year; from almost 8 million Americans lifted out of poverty to more than 5.5 million driven into poverty; and millions more losing their health insurance. Now in spite of all this evidence, their candidate is actually promising more of the same.

----------

Think about it: more tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans that will swell the deficit, increase inequality, and weaken the economy; more Band-Aids for health care that will enrich insurance companies, impoverish families, and increase the number of uninsured; more going it alone in the world, instead of building the shared responsibilities and shared opportunities necessary to advance our security and restore our influence. They actually want us to reward them for the last eight years by giving them four more.

Then Clinton turned his focus on the only argument Republicans seem capable of making -- that Obama isn't "ready to lead":

Everything I learned in my eight years as president, and in the work I have done since in America and across the globe, has convinced me that Barack Obama is the man for this job. He has a remarkable ability to inspire people, to raise our hopes and rally us to high purpose. He has the intelligence and curiosity every successful president needs. His policies on the economy, on taxes, on health care, on energy are far superior to the Republican alternatives. He has shown a clear grasp of foreign policy and national security challenges and a firm commitment to rebuild our badly strained military. His family heritage and his life experiences have given him a unique capacity to lead our increasingly diverse nation in an ever more interdependent world.

----------

Barack Obama is ready to lead America and to restore American leadership in the world. Barack Obama is ready to honor the oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States. Barack Obama is ready to be president of the United States.

He is certainly a lot more ready than George Bush ever was, and the past eight years of demonstrated incompetence, failure, and outright deception are proof enough of that.

Really, it is to laugh: if somehow the GOP's warped definition of "leadership" was a decent argument then we would be wrapping up eight years of an Al Gore administration (or even four years of a John Kerry one).

George Bush had never traveled outside the United States prior to being elected president (sic). And not because he couldn't afford to.

Poor John McSame is -- besides being wrong about most everything else -- on the wrong side of history: the US hasn't elected the guy with the most Washington experience since Truman (that is, if you don't count The Wimp).

I sent him an e-mail pointing this out, but I'm pretty sure his staff did not print it out and read it to him.

Gustav by Labor Day

Have a happy Labor Day weekend but pay attention to the weather reports:

If the storm continues to stall it could favor a Texas landfall as the time may allow a ridge of high pressure over Florida and the Bahamas to strengthen and possibly expand. Alternatively a weakness could open in the ridge and allow Gustav to move northward -- hence the uncertainty in the forecast.

It is around this ridge that Gustav will eventually trace its way into the Gulf of Mexico, so the further west the ridge moves, the further west Gustav will move.

"She needs to gut McCain"

The words of Pat Buchanan, a few minutes before Hillary spoke last night.

And sure enough, she left the bloody entrails of the former POW and now half-owner of between seven and ten houses all over the dais of the Pepsi Center last night.

(One thing you can count on when you take on the Clintons: they won't be bringing a knife to a gunfight. Tuesday night, however, was all right for a gut hook.)

The vainglorious and mostly unintelligible James Carville on CNN was perturbed -- Pumas adorning his feet while on camera -- carping aloud about "the message" the convention was sending. Apparently it wasn't tough enough to suit his taste. This coming from a guy who no doubt regularly eats nutria.

I hope he was grinning like a shit-eating ape after Hillary lit it up last night. For my part I certainly was.

Hillary was both staunch advocate throughout for Obama as well as grateful recipient of her supporter's efforts, and even once a gentle scold:

Those are the reasons I ran for President. Those are the reasons I support Barack Obama. And those are the reasons you should too.

I want you to ask yourselves: Were you in this campaign just for me? Or were you in it for that young Marine and others like him? Were you in it for that mom struggling with cancer while raising her kids? Were you in it for that boy and his mom surviving on the minimum wage? Were you in it for all the people in this country who feel invisible?

Anyone who is unpersuaded -- and I'm sure there are still some -- isn't worth trying to reach out to any more. A few minutes later Mrs. Clinton took out the blade:

John McCain says the economy is fundamentally sound. John McCain doesn’t think that 47 million people without health insurance is a crisis. John McCain wants to privatize Social Security. And in 2008, he still thinks it’s okay when women don’t earn equal pay for equal work.

With an agenda like that, it makes sense that George Bush and John McCain will be together next week in the Twin Cities. Because these days they’re awfully hard to tell apart.

Pssst: McCain has a giant "W" tattooed on his lower back.

But the best line of the evening was when she invoked Harriet Tubman, the real emancipator of slaves (all respect to Abraham Lincoln). The lead-in was the acknowledgement of the anniversary of the suffrage movement ...

I’m a United States Senator because in 1848 a group of courageous women and a few brave men gathered in Seneca Falls, New York, many traveling for days and nights, to participate in the first convention on women’s rights in our history.

And so dawned a struggle for the right to vote that would last 72 years, handed down by mother to daughter to granddaughter -- and a few sons and grandsons along the way.

These women and men looked into their daughters’ eyes, imagined a fairer and freer world, and found the strength to fight. To rally and picket. To endure ridicule and harassment. To brave violence and jail.

And after so many decades -- 88 years ago on this very day -- the 19th amendment guaranteeing women the right to vote would be forever enshrined in our Constitution.

My mother was born before women could vote. But in this election my daughter got to vote for her mother for President.

This is the story of America. Of women and men who defy the odds and never give up.

How do we give this country back to them?

By following the example of a brave New Yorker , a woman who risked her life to shepherd slaves along the Underground Railroad. And on that path to freedom, Harriett Tubman had one piece of advice.

If you hear the dogs, keep going.

If you see the torches in the woods, keep going.

If they’re shouting after you, keep going.

Don’t ever stop. Keep going.

If you want a taste of freedom, keep going.

Even in the darkest of moments, ordinary Americans have found the faith to keep going. I’ve seen it in you. I’ve seen it in our teachers and firefighters, nurses and police officers, small business owners and union workers, the men and women of our military - you always keep going.

We are Americans. We’re not big on quitting.

But remember, before we can keep going, we have to get going by electing Barack Obama president.

We don’t have a moment to lose or a vote to spare.

Nothing less than the fate of our nation and the future of our children hang in the balance.

I want you to think about your children and grandchildren come election day. And think about the choices your parents and grandparents made that had such a big impact on your life and on the life of our nation.

We’ve got to ensure that the choice we make in this election honors the sacrifices of all who came before us, and will fill the lives of our children with possibility and hope.

Thank you, Mrs. Clinton, for all that you do. Have done, and will do. Thanks for coming to Texas next month to campaign for Obama and Rick Noriega and our other Democratic candidates. And thanks for your unyielding service to our country.

You make me -- indeed, you make all Americans, even the Republicans -- proud.

"Trying" to "redefine" is simply false

A bad headline by an otherwise capable reporter (and here's hoping it's just a bad editor who wrote it, and not Rick Dunham):

"Democrats try to redefine Michelle Obama".

Here the readers are forced to accept the premise that the GOP has "defined" Michelle Obama to a degree that she needs the Democratic Party to "try" to "redefine" herself. That's a frame worthy of Fox News, not the Chronicle.

Spectacularly poor job of utilizing the Republicans' talking points. Grade: F.

Another one scores a 'D':

"Kennedy outshines Obama's wife at Democratic convention" (that's how it reads at the top of the Chron.com home page), but "Democrats connect past to future to start convention" when you click in.

I don't believe it was a competition between the two, for openers.

This reveals part of the problem with the traditional, corporate media and their efforts to "show both sides" of every issue: sometimes there's only the truth, and the conservative spin. See Warming, Global or Science, Creationist for more examples.

Once upon a time a journalist's primary task was to dig for and present the facts, letting the chips fall where they may. These days it presents the point and the GOP's counterpoint.

Update (10:20 a.m.): It's now been changed to "Kennedy the highlight of Democratic convention opener".

The electorate needs better effort from the media than this.

In more entertaining developments, Keith Olbermann told Joe Scarborough to "get a shovel":



Now that's how you're supposed to hit back.