Obama's in town today, but only for the money

Using Texas as an ATM, the same as John Kerry and Al Gore and Bill Clinton before him. This is precisely the reason why we have been a one-party state for the past fourteen years. Taking money out of Texas and spending it on teevee advertising in Michigan and Ohio and Florida doesn't get a single Democrat elected to the statehouse or the courthouse here.

After conducting a midday public forum on the economy in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Barack Obama will head later today to Houston, whose metropolitan area has more registered voters than all of the Hawkeye State.

But Obama has no scheduled public events in Houston. Instead, he will collect donations for his Democratic presidential campaign and the Democratic Party at two private gatherings.

Of the $287 million raised across the nation by the Obama campaign, only a quarter has come from contributors of at least $2,300, according to the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania. Federal law puts a $2,300 cap on the amount an individual can give for a primary or general election, for a maximum total of $4,600.

The Houston events fall into the big-money category. They start at $2,300 per person, with amounts above $4,600 going to the party. The receptions take place at the River Oaks home of trial lawyer Richard Mithoff and his philanthropist wife, Ginni, and the Memorial area home of energy company chief John Thrash and his philanthropist wife, Becca Cason Thrash. Top donors at each event will get a chance to have their photographs taken with the Illinois senator.

Whether you have $23 or $2.300 to give a political candidate, we're all much better off if you give it to Rick Noriega or David Mincberg or C. O. Bradford or Diane Trautman, or Sherrie Matula or Kevin Murphy or Joe Montemayor or Larry Hunter, or Chris Bell or Joe Jaworski, or Mike Engelhart or Jim Sharp or Linda Yanez.

Obama is going to have all the money he needs to get elected, believe me.

Update (8/1): At least $1.5 million ...

Barack Obama collected more than $1.5 million in campaign funding Thursday night in two Houston neighborhoods built by oil and natural gas profits while telling his audiences that America needs to liberate itself from those fuels.

... Standing on a platform just above the water level of a lighted indoor pool at a Memorial home, Obama said the nation needs to develop wind and solar energy and other alternative sources. He spoke to about 55 paying guests at candlelit, round dinner tables under skylights in the 18,000-square-foot home of John Thrash, chief of a natural gas infrastructure company, and wife Becca Cason Thrash.

...

On Thursday morning in Iowa, Obama told a public audience that amid record-high oil profits, Republican opponent John McCain's proposal to lower corporate taxes is wrong and that the Republican Party is bereft of ideas that would help steer the nation to long-term energy independence.

At his other closed-door stop in Houston, the River Oaks home of trial lawyer Richard Mithoff and wife Ginni, Obama vaguely outlined a desire to work with both major parties to fashion short-term oil and gas usage policies. ...

Mithoff ... said the event had raised $1.5 million for Obama's campaign and the Democratic Party. Donations started at $2,300 per person and the total raised at the Thrash home was unknown.

The River Oaks audience was a multiethnic blend of lawyers, politicians, business people and others.

I removed some of Alan Bernstein's more egregious sneering. Click over for the full Republican effect.

Person Linda Yanez

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Four hundred and eighty two billion.

And that's after he inherited a $286 billion surplus:

The government's budget deficit will surge past a half-trillion dollars next year, according to gloomy new estimates, a record flood of red ink that promises to force the winner of the presidential race to dramatically alter his economic agenda.

The deficit will hit $482 billion in the 2009 budget year that will be inherited by Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain, the White House estimated Monday. That figure is sure to rise after adding the tens of billions of dollars in additional Iraq war funding it doesn't include, and the total could be higher yet if the economy fails to recover as the administration predicts.

Iraq and Afghanistan war budgets are supplementals, and the deficit calculation includes an estimate of tax revenues based on an economic model that forecasts more growth (and thus more tax revenue) than is likely. But the truth-telling is buried at the end of the article. I'll emphasize it in bold:

Monday's figures capped a remarkable deterioration in the United States' budgetary health under Bush's time in office.

He inherited a budget seen as producing endless huge surpluses after four straight years in positive territory. That stretch of surpluses represented a period when the country's finances had been bolstered by a 10-year period of uninterrupted economic growth, the longest expansion in U.S. history.

In his first year in office, helped by projections of continuing surpluses, Bush drove through a 10-year, $1.35 trillion package of tax cuts.

However, faulty estimates, a recession in March 2001 and government spending to fight the war on terrorism contributed to pushing the deficit to a record in dollar terms in 2004.

The guy had a track record of running companies into the ground. We shouldn't be surprised.

But beyond the mismanagement of our national security (endless wars in the Middle East are not making us safer), of the country's treasury, and the curtailment of civil rights at home and abroad (torture, holding prisoners without due process, wiretapping Americans without just cause) there's several things much more grave about the Bush legacy. Let's consider just one ...

The economic dismantling of the middle class -- not just the lack of decent jobs at decent wages with decent health and retirement benefits, but people losing their homes, unable to afford gas to get to work, dying for lack of affordable health care -- is the sort of thing that revolutions in the past were begun over.

It's really looking more and more like the United States needs a little of the "blood of patriots and tyrants to fertilize the tree of liberty", to paraphrase Thomas Jefferson.

Veep speculation

Monica Langley at the WSJ:

Before leaving on his overseas trip, Sen. Barack Obama reviewed information on several prospects and narrowed the field. His focus now includes five colleagues in the U.S. Senate -- Joseph Biden, Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton and Jack Reed -- and two governors, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, according to Democratic operatives, though he could still make a different pick.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain also is understood to be narrowing his list, with speculation focused on about the same number of choices. They include ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a rival during the Republican primaries; Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, with whom he has a strong friendship; and former Rep. Rob Portman of the battleground state of Ohio. Republicans also are touting Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and campaign adviser Carly Fiorina, ex-CEO of Hewlett-Packard Co., among others.

Booman, on those names:

I would be very pleased with the selection of Sebelius, Dodd, or Reed. I'd be okay with the selection of Kaine. Biden, Bayh, or Clinton I would consider poor choices. Bayh and Clinton would be personally demoralizing.

On the Republican side, I'll be brief. ... None of these picks particularly frighten me. John Thune is probably the safest choice, but I can't see him fundamentally changing the game. Fiorina is untested as a campaigner and her qualifications are dubious. Romney would be a disaster. Crist has to overcome rumors about his sexuality. And Pawlenty just doesn't carry much juice.

I think it will be Biden for Obama (and I will be happy with that, agreeing with Booman otherwise even though I would love it if it were Dodd or Richardson, who is getting no buzz whatsoever) and Portman for McCain, although the WSJ article really makes it sound like McCain is being talked into Romney. poblano says:

If Bob Novak is circulating internal polls showing Mitt Romney helping John McCain in Michigan, you can be pretty sure that the Republican establishment is behind the idea of making Romney McCain's VP. It's easy enough to understand why. Romney has been a good team player: an excellent fundraiser and a tireless campaigner. He is unlikely to embarrass either himself or the ticket. And he could potentially be an asset in several states, among them Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada.

But Romney also comes with several liabilities which, when combined with his strengths, would tend to produce a very interesting electoral map.

Go read it; it's cogent (as always). grantcart points out the similarities between Obama and Tim Kaine, concluding with his belief that the Virginia governor will be the one.

Who do you think will be the second bananas? Post a comment.

The Weekly Wrangle

Here are the TPA Round-Up blog highlights for the week of July 28:

TXsharon challenges you to view these pictures of domestic drilling Armageddon in the Barnett Shale and still support the Drill and Burn domestic drilling agenda.

U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez' Republican challenger for the 23rd Congressional seat is taken to task by Mike Thomas of Rhetoric & Rhythm for shirking his responsibility on a critical hospital expansion vote before the Bexar County Commissioner's Court.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson posts on the GOP's "latest" energy plan in Carter, Oil, & Hair Of The Dog.

Neil at Texas Liberal asks what would be the impact if polar bears could vote.

Off the Kuff looks at a Texas Monthly overview of the effects of the presidential race on downballot elections in Texas and offers his criticism of it.

Guest columnist JR Behrman at Texas Kaos has a few strong words about Energy Policy: Democrats Routed. He also has a Texas plan.

Julie Pippert of MOMocrats asks the Obama campaign to explain its absence in Texas after they announced the roll-out of their Spanish language ads as an outreach to Hispanic voters, then discusses a Senate proposal that would require 50% of US cars to have a flexible fuel system by 2012, and finally the MOMocrats share the draft of their position paper to be submitted to the Democratic National Committee for inclusion in the party platform.

McBlogger had a great time at the subprime panel at Netroots Nation. So good in fact that he decided to offer some of his own solutions since the panelists, including the dimwitted Rep. Brad Miller, decided to offer nothing of substance.

XicanoPwr reports on the latest poll by the Pew Hispanic Center on the Latino vote. Polling shows that 66% of Latino registered voters will support Obama.

Burnt Orange Report points out that commissioner of agriculture Todd Staples finally comes around to what Democrat (and future Ag Commissioner) Hank Gilbert has been saying all along: Texans are being overcharged at the gas pump due to lack of state inspections.

BossKitty at TruthHugger dreams about the "Count Down To Accountability - Bush, Cheney Indictments".

refinish69 from Doing My Part For The Left invites everyone to meet Annette Taddeo -- A true progressive Democrat.

jobsanger writes about how, after years of the Bush presidency, even our closest traditional ally gives the US no credibility in Brits Don't Trust Bush On Torture.

Obama and the down-ballot races in Texas are the focus of two articles by R.G. Ratcliffe of the Houston Chronicle. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs summarizes, and finds some to agree with and some not.

Mean Rachel writes an open letter to Rep. Elliot Naishtat, encouraging him to consider joining the technology age and starting an inexpensive, user-friendly website, designed specifically for state legislators, with Wired for Change's DLCCWeb, a Netroots exhibitor.

nytexan at BlueBloggin keeps an eye on Mitch McConnell, the GOP king of distortion and extortion. McConnell plans to block legislation that can impact Americans now and push for a bill whose product will not be seen for 10 years in McConnell Extorts Senate For Off Shore Drilling. McConnell never fails to please Bush and his corporate buddies.

WhosPlayin looks at a new USGS petroleum estimate for the Arctic Circle, and notes that only a small portion of ANWR is estimated to be productive, and that the study doesn't address economic feasibility.

Vince from Capitol Annex tells us that, while indicted former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Sugar Land) won't accept a presidential pardon, he'd love one from Texas Governor Rick Perry.

CouldBeTrue from South Texas Chisme gets upset with a crappy newspaper article.

Extra Funnies

Obama and the Texas down-ballot contests

R.G. Ratcliffe seems quite a bit more optimistic than me:

One hundred days before the Nov. 4 election, Democratic and Republican political insiders are pondering whether Obama can lose states such as Texas and still make a difference in targeted congressional, county and legislative races by inspiring voter turnout.

Obama's campaign manager has listed Texas as a state likely to go to McCain. But the campaign also has promised to put 15 coordinators in the state to help Texas Democrats win the five seats they need for a state House majority and to win in Harris County.

"We're not down here just wasting our money," Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean said recently in Austin. "We're down here, because we know that if Barack Obama wins in Texas, or does well enough in Texas to pick up five House seats in the Texas state House of Representatives, we're going to undo all those evil things Tom DeLay did."

A Democratic majority in the Texas House would help the Democrats control the congressional redistricting process in 2011, when Texas is expected to get three new U.S. House seats due to population growth.

McCain national campaign adviser Charlie Black said he cannot remember a presidential campaign that put resources into a state it expected to lose just to help the local party.

"It's a very ambitious plan," he said.

Let's come back to some of that in a moment. A comment from each side:

A lot of the strategy is about voter excitement. Consultants from both parties admit that Democrats are generally more excited about the presidential race than Republicans. And, they said, down-ballot races may actually help boost turnout in the presidential contest.

Democrats in Texas "are very much energized, pretty much across the state," said Democratic political consultant Dan McClung of Houston. "It's not just national politics. It's state politics and county politics that have Democrats energized."

Texas Republican Party Political Director Hans Klingler said fights over partisan control of Harris and Dallas counties are as exciting for party activists as the presidential contest.

"As important as to what happens at the presidential races at the top of the ticket is what the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are going to do at the bottom-of-the-ticket races at the courthouse level," Klingler said.

This is much more charitable than Klingler usually allows. Hans left the stupid this time to Republican pollster/goombah Mike Baselice:

"There's dumb and real dumb and invading Russia," Baselice said. "If you're a Democrat, you don't want to get caught in a land war in Texas, when you've got all those states in the Midwest to win."

Baselice said the problem for Republicans is not what Obama is going to do but a belief by GOP voters that the nation is on the wrong track.

"Half, if not more than half, the Republicans think the country is off-track. That is more concern to me than Obama sending 15 people to the state," Baselice said.

Well, at least he is correct about that last. Let's also catch a few excerpts from Ratcliffe's composite opinions from "four Democratic and four Republican political consultants and insiders" who chose to remain anonymous in commenting on some of those down-ballot races. I will apend each in blue with my not-anonymous opinion as neither insider nor consultant:

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•President: Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Barack Obama has all but conceded Texas to Republican John McCain. But Obama's aides and national Democratic leaders have pledged support for Texas Democrats in hopes of winning a state House majority while looking to a congressional redistricting battle in 2011, when the state is likely to gain three seats in Congress. Texas is McCain's to lose. Nothing to disagree with here.

•U.S. Senate: Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn has not been especially strong in the polls, but Democrat Rick Noriega's campaign has yet to bust out in fundraising or inspiring a groundswell of support. Cornyn is favored to win; however, a late Obama surge in Texas could make an upset possible for Noriega. Agree completely. Noriega can still pull it out but time is running short.

•Texas Railroad Commission: Republican Michael Williams should win re-election over little-known Democrat Mark Thompson. Agree, sadly.

Congressional races

•CD 22: Democratic U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson has incumbent advantage for re-election in a district once held by former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. President Bush and the GOP are dedicated to helping Pete Olson regain the seat for the party. Lampson likely will get $1 million from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The district's growing black population may be inspired to vote because of Obama, but the district in the past three elections has given most Republican candidates more than 60 percent of the vote. Lampson won in 2006 with 52 percent of the vote with no Republican on the ballot. Toss-up. Lampson's lurch away from the people who got him elected will cost him his seat in Congress. He's a sure loser.

•CD 23: Democratic U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio is being challenged by Republican County Commissioner Lyle Larson. Rodriguez is better positioned with funds. But the district voted 54 percent Republican in 2004. A big turnout for McCain could help Larson. Rodriguez favored to win. Ciro likewise abandoned the progressives who worked for him in 2004, same as Lampson, but Rodriguez will be re-elected because his district favors a Latino.

•CD 7: Republican U.S. Rep. John Culberson's district tends to vote almost 70 percent Republican, making it seemingly safe for him. But Democrat Michael Skelly is promising to run television ads between now and election day. Skelly says the district needs fresh approaches to energy policy and other issues. Long-shot upset is possible. Culberson is a goner.

•CD 10: Republican U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul has the advantage in this GOP-leaning district that stretches from Harris County to Austin. Democrat Larry Joe Doherty, a former television judge, has a folksy, populist style that may play well in rural areas as well as with Austin Democrats. Long-shot upset is possible. Doherty in the upset, mostly because McCaul has been undistinguished in his terms in Washington.

State Senate seats

•SD 17: The field is still forming in this no-primary special election for the seat held by retiring Sen. Kyle Janek, R-Houston. Democrat Chris Bell at present is expected to face three Republicans — Grant Harpold, Joan Huffman and Austen Furse — in the election on the same day as presidential voting. A large Democratic turnout could help Bell eke out a victory on Election Day, but conventional wisdom is that Bell will be in a runoff with a Republican who has been damaged by infighting among the GOP candidates. Special elections normally favor Republican turnout, but the Democrats are expected to be energized this year. Toss-up. Bell goes to the Senate, even if it's a run-off.

•SD 10: The district represented by state Sen. Ken Brimer, R-Arlington, has the largest black population of any state Senate district held by a Republican, and he has two colleges in his district. Former Fort Worth City Councilwoman Wendy Davis is fighting hard. An upset is possible. Say hello to Sen. Wendy Davis.

•SD 11: State Sen. Mike Jackson, R-LaPorte, is being given a look at possible defeat at the hands of Democrat Joe Jaworski. Jackson has not done a good job of keeping his profile up, and Jaworski may be able to capitalize on a general unhappiness with Republicans this year. Leans Republican. Jaworski is in better shape to defeat "Inaction" Jackson even than Bell and Davis are.

Democratic edge?

Texas House seats held by Republicans in 2007 that Democrats could win.

•HD 52: Open seat. Republican Robert "Bryan" Daniel against Democrat Diane Maldonado, both of Round Rock. Toss-up. Count it for Maldonado.

•HD 78: Open seat. Republican Dee Margo received 53 percent of the district's vote when he ran for a Senate seat in an overlapping district two years ago. The Democrat in the 2008 race is Joseph Moody, whose father won 60 percent of the district's vote when he ran for statewide judicial office in 2006. Toss-up. Margo also has the cash advantage. Can't see it very close, even as strong a candidate as Moody is.

•HD 96: Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, is challenged by Democrat Chris Turner of Burleson. Upset possible. Hard-right district represented by hard-right representative. Not even an Obama landslide can pry this one from Zedler's cold, almost-dead fingers.

•HD 101: Open seat. Former Mesquite Mayor Mike Anderson, a Republican, is favored over Democrat Robert Miklos. Leans Republican. Anderson, easily.

•HD 102: Rep. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas, is challenged by Democrat Carol Kent. Leans Republican. Kent has a real shot, but Goolsby has incumbency and a large lobbyist-funded bankroll. It doesn't look like a leaner to me.

•HD 129: Rep. John Davis, R-Houston, is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Sherrie Matula. Leans Republican. Ethics-scandal-plagued Davis is running behind Matula in fundraising (he's spent too much on cowboy boots, apparently). Matula's organization, particularly her ground game, will push her over the top.

•District 133: Rep. Jim Murphy, R-Houston, challenged by Democrat Kristi Thibaut, who could benefit from a big vote for Obama in the district. Leans Republican. Hard to say that one of my favorite candidates and a brand-new mother is probably going to fall just short once again. A genuine effort by the Obama campaign in Houston could make a real difference in this race.

•District 144: Open seat. Republican Ken Legler versus Democrat Joel Redmond, both of Pasadena. This Republican district is trending Democratic, but it may not get there this year. Leans Republican. Redmond will win in a squeaker due to energized Latino voter turnout in the district, thanks in no small part to Noriega and Linda Yanez above Redmond's name on the ballot.

GOP edge?

Texas House seats held by Democrats in 2007 that Republicans could win. •HD 17: Open seat. Republican Tim Kleinschmidt of Lexington against Democrat Donnie Dippel of La Grange. Toss-up. This one is as close as they come.

•HD 32: Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi, is challenged by Democrat-turned-Republican former state Rep. Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi in a GOP-leaning district. Upset of Garcia possible. Garcia will lose, and it's not going to be all that close.

•HD 97: Democratic Rep. Dan Barrett of Fort Worth gave his party hope by winning this Republican district in a special election last year. He will have a hard time holding onto the seat in a challenge from Republican Mark Shelton. Leans Republican. Barrett suffers the same fate as Garcia.

•HD 149: Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston, was a shoo-in for re-election until he got hit with a barrage of stories about his ownership of substandard apartments. Now, Vo is damaged goods being challenged by Republican Gregory Meyers. Toss-up. Vo has probably handed this one back to the GOP.

•WD40s: White Democrats over age 40: Reps. Mark Homer of Paris, Chuck Hopson of Jacksonville and Jim McReynolds of Lufkin are targets each election because their rural districts are Republican. A heavy turnout for McCain could allow an opponent to score a bull's-eye. I believe all three will be re-elected. They have managed to do so with a Bush on the ballot, after all...

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The experts ignored the Supreme Court races (Yanez will defeat incumbent Phil Johnson but the other two are uncertain) as well as the HD-19 race in east Texas, where Larry Hunter will turn out Republican incumbent "Tuffy" Hamilton. But the Texas House is going to remain a bare GOP majority -- though likely bigger than two years ago -- and Craddick is going to once again be elected Speaker because of Craddickrats like Aaron Pena, Sylvester Turner, and Joe Deshotel.

Our battle to turn Harris County Blue will show some results, but the amount of success depends on the length of Barack Obama's coattails.