Extra Funnies

Obama and the Texas down-ballot contests

R.G. Ratcliffe seems quite a bit more optimistic than me:

One hundred days before the Nov. 4 election, Democratic and Republican political insiders are pondering whether Obama can lose states such as Texas and still make a difference in targeted congressional, county and legislative races by inspiring voter turnout.

Obama's campaign manager has listed Texas as a state likely to go to McCain. But the campaign also has promised to put 15 coordinators in the state to help Texas Democrats win the five seats they need for a state House majority and to win in Harris County.

"We're not down here just wasting our money," Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean said recently in Austin. "We're down here, because we know that if Barack Obama wins in Texas, or does well enough in Texas to pick up five House seats in the Texas state House of Representatives, we're going to undo all those evil things Tom DeLay did."

A Democratic majority in the Texas House would help the Democrats control the congressional redistricting process in 2011, when Texas is expected to get three new U.S. House seats due to population growth.

McCain national campaign adviser Charlie Black said he cannot remember a presidential campaign that put resources into a state it expected to lose just to help the local party.

"It's a very ambitious plan," he said.

Let's come back to some of that in a moment. A comment from each side:

A lot of the strategy is about voter excitement. Consultants from both parties admit that Democrats are generally more excited about the presidential race than Republicans. And, they said, down-ballot races may actually help boost turnout in the presidential contest.

Democrats in Texas "are very much energized, pretty much across the state," said Democratic political consultant Dan McClung of Houston. "It's not just national politics. It's state politics and county politics that have Democrats energized."

Texas Republican Party Political Director Hans Klingler said fights over partisan control of Harris and Dallas counties are as exciting for party activists as the presidential contest.

"As important as to what happens at the presidential races at the top of the ticket is what the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are going to do at the bottom-of-the-ticket races at the courthouse level," Klingler said.

This is much more charitable than Klingler usually allows. Hans left the stupid this time to Republican pollster/goombah Mike Baselice:

"There's dumb and real dumb and invading Russia," Baselice said. "If you're a Democrat, you don't want to get caught in a land war in Texas, when you've got all those states in the Midwest to win."

Baselice said the problem for Republicans is not what Obama is going to do but a belief by GOP voters that the nation is on the wrong track.

"Half, if not more than half, the Republicans think the country is off-track. That is more concern to me than Obama sending 15 people to the state," Baselice said.

Well, at least he is correct about that last. Let's also catch a few excerpts from Ratcliffe's composite opinions from "four Democratic and four Republican political consultants and insiders" who chose to remain anonymous in commenting on some of those down-ballot races. I will apend each in blue with my not-anonymous opinion as neither insider nor consultant:

=========

•President: Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Barack Obama has all but conceded Texas to Republican John McCain. But Obama's aides and national Democratic leaders have pledged support for Texas Democrats in hopes of winning a state House majority while looking to a congressional redistricting battle in 2011, when the state is likely to gain three seats in Congress. Texas is McCain's to lose. Nothing to disagree with here.

•U.S. Senate: Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn has not been especially strong in the polls, but Democrat Rick Noriega's campaign has yet to bust out in fundraising or inspiring a groundswell of support. Cornyn is favored to win; however, a late Obama surge in Texas could make an upset possible for Noriega. Agree completely. Noriega can still pull it out but time is running short.

•Texas Railroad Commission: Republican Michael Williams should win re-election over little-known Democrat Mark Thompson. Agree, sadly.

Congressional races

•CD 22: Democratic U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson has incumbent advantage for re-election in a district once held by former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. President Bush and the GOP are dedicated to helping Pete Olson regain the seat for the party. Lampson likely will get $1 million from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The district's growing black population may be inspired to vote because of Obama, but the district in the past three elections has given most Republican candidates more than 60 percent of the vote. Lampson won in 2006 with 52 percent of the vote with no Republican on the ballot. Toss-up. Lampson's lurch away from the people who got him elected will cost him his seat in Congress. He's a sure loser.

•CD 23: Democratic U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio is being challenged by Republican County Commissioner Lyle Larson. Rodriguez is better positioned with funds. But the district voted 54 percent Republican in 2004. A big turnout for McCain could help Larson. Rodriguez favored to win. Ciro likewise abandoned the progressives who worked for him in 2004, same as Lampson, but Rodriguez will be re-elected because his district favors a Latino.

•CD 7: Republican U.S. Rep. John Culberson's district tends to vote almost 70 percent Republican, making it seemingly safe for him. But Democrat Michael Skelly is promising to run television ads between now and election day. Skelly says the district needs fresh approaches to energy policy and other issues. Long-shot upset is possible. Culberson is a goner.

•CD 10: Republican U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul has the advantage in this GOP-leaning district that stretches from Harris County to Austin. Democrat Larry Joe Doherty, a former television judge, has a folksy, populist style that may play well in rural areas as well as with Austin Democrats. Long-shot upset is possible. Doherty in the upset, mostly because McCaul has been undistinguished in his terms in Washington.

State Senate seats

•SD 17: The field is still forming in this no-primary special election for the seat held by retiring Sen. Kyle Janek, R-Houston. Democrat Chris Bell at present is expected to face three Republicans — Grant Harpold, Joan Huffman and Austen Furse — in the election on the same day as presidential voting. A large Democratic turnout could help Bell eke out a victory on Election Day, but conventional wisdom is that Bell will be in a runoff with a Republican who has been damaged by infighting among the GOP candidates. Special elections normally favor Republican turnout, but the Democrats are expected to be energized this year. Toss-up. Bell goes to the Senate, even if it's a run-off.

•SD 10: The district represented by state Sen. Ken Brimer, R-Arlington, has the largest black population of any state Senate district held by a Republican, and he has two colleges in his district. Former Fort Worth City Councilwoman Wendy Davis is fighting hard. An upset is possible. Say hello to Sen. Wendy Davis.

•SD 11: State Sen. Mike Jackson, R-LaPorte, is being given a look at possible defeat at the hands of Democrat Joe Jaworski. Jackson has not done a good job of keeping his profile up, and Jaworski may be able to capitalize on a general unhappiness with Republicans this year. Leans Republican. Jaworski is in better shape to defeat "Inaction" Jackson even than Bell and Davis are.

Democratic edge?

Texas House seats held by Republicans in 2007 that Democrats could win.

•HD 52: Open seat. Republican Robert "Bryan" Daniel against Democrat Diane Maldonado, both of Round Rock. Toss-up. Count it for Maldonado.

•HD 78: Open seat. Republican Dee Margo received 53 percent of the district's vote when he ran for a Senate seat in an overlapping district two years ago. The Democrat in the 2008 race is Joseph Moody, whose father won 60 percent of the district's vote when he ran for statewide judicial office in 2006. Toss-up. Margo also has the cash advantage. Can't see it very close, even as strong a candidate as Moody is.

•HD 96: Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, is challenged by Democrat Chris Turner of Burleson. Upset possible. Hard-right district represented by hard-right representative. Not even an Obama landslide can pry this one from Zedler's cold, almost-dead fingers.

•HD 101: Open seat. Former Mesquite Mayor Mike Anderson, a Republican, is favored over Democrat Robert Miklos. Leans Republican. Anderson, easily.

•HD 102: Rep. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas, is challenged by Democrat Carol Kent. Leans Republican. Kent has a real shot, but Goolsby has incumbency and a large lobbyist-funded bankroll. It doesn't look like a leaner to me.

•HD 129: Rep. John Davis, R-Houston, is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Sherrie Matula. Leans Republican. Ethics-scandal-plagued Davis is running behind Matula in fundraising (he's spent too much on cowboy boots, apparently). Matula's organization, particularly her ground game, will push her over the top.

•District 133: Rep. Jim Murphy, R-Houston, challenged by Democrat Kristi Thibaut, who could benefit from a big vote for Obama in the district. Leans Republican. Hard to say that one of my favorite candidates and a brand-new mother is probably going to fall just short once again. A genuine effort by the Obama campaign in Houston could make a real difference in this race.

•District 144: Open seat. Republican Ken Legler versus Democrat Joel Redmond, both of Pasadena. This Republican district is trending Democratic, but it may not get there this year. Leans Republican. Redmond will win in a squeaker due to energized Latino voter turnout in the district, thanks in no small part to Noriega and Linda Yanez above Redmond's name on the ballot.

GOP edge?

Texas House seats held by Democrats in 2007 that Republicans could win. •HD 17: Open seat. Republican Tim Kleinschmidt of Lexington against Democrat Donnie Dippel of La Grange. Toss-up. This one is as close as they come.

•HD 32: Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi, is challenged by Democrat-turned-Republican former state Rep. Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi in a GOP-leaning district. Upset of Garcia possible. Garcia will lose, and it's not going to be all that close.

•HD 97: Democratic Rep. Dan Barrett of Fort Worth gave his party hope by winning this Republican district in a special election last year. He will have a hard time holding onto the seat in a challenge from Republican Mark Shelton. Leans Republican. Barrett suffers the same fate as Garcia.

•HD 149: Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston, was a shoo-in for re-election until he got hit with a barrage of stories about his ownership of substandard apartments. Now, Vo is damaged goods being challenged by Republican Gregory Meyers. Toss-up. Vo has probably handed this one back to the GOP.

•WD40s: White Democrats over age 40: Reps. Mark Homer of Paris, Chuck Hopson of Jacksonville and Jim McReynolds of Lufkin are targets each election because their rural districts are Republican. A heavy turnout for McCain could allow an opponent to score a bull's-eye. I believe all three will be re-elected. They have managed to do so with a Bush on the ballot, after all...

===========

The experts ignored the Supreme Court races (Yanez will defeat incumbent Phil Johnson but the other two are uncertain) as well as the HD-19 race in east Texas, where Larry Hunter will turn out Republican incumbent "Tuffy" Hamilton. But the Texas House is going to remain a bare GOP majority -- though likely bigger than two years ago -- and Craddick is going to once again be elected Speaker because of Craddickrats like Aaron Pena, Sylvester Turner, and Joe Deshotel.

Our battle to turn Harris County Blue will show some results, but the amount of success depends on the length of Barack Obama's coattails.

EV 7/27: McCain still had a good week

Despite Obama's World Goodwill Tour, despite McCain's slashing personal attacks in response ... in spite of another lousy week, the senior senator from Arizona still manages a slight gain in the polling.

Let's switch Ohio and North Dakota to red, but we have to take away Florida (it's tied). Virginia is also knotted, so it comes out of Obama's column. McCain still can't win, but he's drawing a little closer.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Sunday Funnies (Cheese and Whine edition)

No kidding: why did McCain give an extended TV interview in the dairy aisle?

Obama taking the Latin vote for granted

J. Pippert at MOMocrats:

The Obama campaign rolled out their Latino/Hispanic strategy in a conference call hosted by Congressman Xavier Becerra (D-CA). Congressman Becerra unveiled the new Spanish language radio ad entitled Bootstraps.

The ad will be rolled out in Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada, key battleground states with Hispanic populations.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Hispanic-origin citizens---43% of the population. Texas and California tie for second place with 35% of the population of Hispanic-origin. That means California is home to 12.4 million Hispanics and Texas is home to 7.8 million, and on average at least 1 in 10 households speak Spanish (per the 2005 Census).

Note that neither Texas nor California is on the radio ad air list.

This is exactly the kind of tactical mistake that eventually turns into a critical, strategic one.

"They are skipping two states where Spanish is spoken the most? That is the most short-sighted strategy I've ever heard of. Seriously, why is it that neither Obama nor Hillary knew how to run a statewide campaign in Texas? So, they're going to spend resources here, but not target Latino voters?" said Vince Liebowitz, Editor & Publisher of CapitolAnnex.com and Chair of the Texas Progressive Alliance, a coalition of more than 40 Texas blogs.

A decision with vast negative implications for Texas and our efforts to turn it blue, particularly in Harris County. More ...

A few months ago when David Axelrod was in Houston, a member of a Hispanic caucus mentioned concern in the Hispanic community about voting for Senator Obama. The McCain campaign and others who oppose Obama have been spreading misinformation about Senator Obama's background and affiliations in Spanish, the man told Mr. Axelrod at the fundraising luncheon. He mentioned that although Senator Obama launched his Snopes-like fightthesmears.com, many Spanish-speaking Hispanics would better trust information received in their first language and were unlikely to browse an English Web site. He asked Mr. Axelrod if the Obama campaign planned to launch a Spanish-language outreach to Hispanic voters. ...

It's important that the Obama campaign outreach extend to Hispanic voters, but more than that, the campaign needs to be careful to not oversimplify Hispanic voters and only appeal to a single issue: immigration (even though it is a key issue). Hispanic citizens have a spectrum of issues that concern them, including business.

Hispanic-owned businesses have been increasing. In 2002, there were 1.6 million Hispanic-owned businesses with almost $230 billion in revenue. If that kept increasing at the same rate, those businesses would be well over 2 million strong by now. Hispanic voters, therefore, are also concerned about the economy, business, taxes, and more.

The Obama campaign also needs to understand that the Hispanic and Latino cultures vary by origin and region. One size won't fit all.

But most of all, they need to not take winning California Hispanic voters for granted, nor should they take losing Texas as a certainty. The right strategy can bring a big win, or a big loss.

The reason Obama is taking both Texas and California for granted is quite simple:

Hispanic support for Democrats has soared in the past four years, driven by the bitter immigration policy debate, the sagging economy and the unpopular Iraq war, according to a Pew Hispanic Center poll.

The survey of 2,015 Latinos found that Democrat Sen. Barack Obama, who lost the Hispanic vote to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton by a margin of nearly 2-to-1 in the Democratic primary, holds a commanding 66 percent to 23 percent lead over Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain. ...

The Democratic tide in the Hispanic community is so strong that Obama has built a lead among every nationality group, including the historically Republican Cuban-American population, which now favors Obama by 53 percent to 29 percent.

The Illinois Democrat is running far ahead among Mexican-Americans, who cast about 40 percent of their ballots for George W. Bush in 2004. Among voters of Mexican ancestry, Obama leads McCain, 70 percent to 21 percent.

Obama's dominance among Hispanics, the poll says, is so complete that he has the support of 25 percent of Latinos who identify themselves as Republicans and holds an edge of about 5-to-1 among those who consider themselves political independents.

Unless McCain can reverse the GOP slide, the Hispanic vote could prove pivotal to Obama in traditionally Republican states such as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and could help him close what has been a significant gap in Florida. It also could help the Democrat in three states that went Republican in 2004 but have small but rapidly increasing Hispanic populations: Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina.

Since Obama stands no greater chance of losing California than he does winning Texas ... well, I'll let Phillip Martin finish my thought:

I guess it's just a 50-state strategy for volunteers and an ATM machine, but not communications outreach.

We're on our own, Texas Democrats. You might as well pick your favorite local candidates and invest your time, energy, and money there, because they're the ones who need the help.

Person Phillip Martin

Right click for SmartMenu shortcuts

"New players pour resources"

"to help Harris County Democrats win."

Gotta love that:

Little-known Texas organizations that support Democratic candidates are pouring money and personnel into Harris County at seldom-seen levels for the Nov. 4 election, with the help of a few wealthy statewide donors and national labor unions.

Although some of the money is sluiced to the Texas Democratic Party or other counties, the work is part of an unprecedented push to aim resources at Houston-area elections through two groups run by a Washington-based director: The Texas Democratic Trust and the Lone Star Fund.

Together they have raised about $3.3 million in the last 18 months, apart from money each candidate has collected, according to state Ethics Commission records.

Free your wallet and the rest will follow (apologies to En Vogue).

In 2006, the same groups and donors helped Democratic candidates sweep out of office the Republican district attorney and Republican judges in Dallas County.

Now, the stakes are even higher in Harris County, the state's most populous, which provides a fat slice of the vote in statewide races.

That slice has historically been around 18 percent of the total of Texas votes, but in the Democratic primary in March -- with swollen turnout all over the state -- it was 27 percent.

Twenty-seven percent of the the Texas Democratic vote was cast in Harris County.

Democrats were tossed from Harris County administrative and judicial offices in the 1994 and 1996 elections and have not recaptured any posts. But surveys, the voter roll and other indicators suggest that the Republican voting advantage in the county has melted to near nothing.

Republican Party donors show no sign of matching the Democrat (sic) effort of operating apart from their party. Instead the GOP is using the same strategy it followed with success in 2006 and previous elections — funneling money from influential donors through the state and local parties.

Lots more good news in that article for the chances of having a two-party system in the nation's third-largest county again.

Bell for Senate's grand opening, yesterday

The Weekly Wrangle

This week's Texas Progressive Alliance Blog Round-Up includes no submissions from blog publishers who attended last weekend's Netroots Nation convention in Austin (we're saving those for a different Round-Up). There is one from someone who did not attend, however ...

The Texas Cloverleaf asks if John Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchison want more HIV in the global pandemic? Our Senators were 2 of the 16 votes against the latest HIV/AIDS bill in the Senate that passed overwhelmingly.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson posts on Diana Maldonado's great fundraising numbers in Maldonado Has Almost 4 to 1 COH Advantage In HD-52.

WhosPlayin stepped outside of his comfort zone a bit and commented on the Fannie and Freddie situation.

jobsanger blasts Republican attempts to allow offshore and ANWR drilling in Drilling Won't Make Us Energy Independent and in Bush Playing Politics With Oil.

The bar may be open, says TXSharon at Texas Kaos in Fire Water: With Compliments from EnCana, but if Encana's serving up the cocktails, it might be better to abstain.

McBlogger's own Harry Balczak has a new recurring feature, Harry Balczak's Reminder To You People. In this edition, he'd like to remind Those Of You Who Just Couldn't Vote For Kerry that your decision was, well, pretty stupid. He is nice about it, though.

Vince at Capitol Annex notes that poultry kingpin Bo Pilgrim paid to jet around Texas Governor Rick Perry's staff to promote the ethanol waver he bought and paid for with a $100,000 contribution to the Republican Governor's Association.

Mean Rachel contemplates whether Fannie and Freddie have anything to do with being raised in 78704, but living through young-adulthood in 78749 in Crashes.

The final word, for now, on the Webb County sheriff's race says Martin Cuellar wins by 41 votes. Since the various 'official' totals for Cuellar have been +37, -133, +39 and finally +41, CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wonders what the h*ll happened!

Off the Kuff looks at the Harris County campaign finance reports and finds good news and not-so-good news for Democratic campaigns.

The Texas Observer's Melissa Del Bosque had an observation about one of the panels at Netroots Nation this past weekend, and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs had some observations about what she observed.

BossKitty at BlueBloggin shows us smuggling humans into the US is no problem at all; From Africa to Mexico to US, Any Way They Can Immigrate.

BossKitty at TruthHugger points out the continued struggle by our soldiers suffering from PTSD and the inadequate response by the incapable VA, in But, When They Come Home ….

Even more Funnies (Last jeers from the Grammstand, etc.)

Rich: "It's the Economic Stupidity, Stupid"

A classic evisceration of John McCain's incompetence on the economy by the NYT's Frank Rich. Some of the hilarity ensuing:

In 2000, he told an interviewer that he would make up for his lack of attention to “those issues.” As he entered the 2008 campaign, Mr. McCain was still saying the same, vowing to read “Greenspan’s book” as a tutorial. Last weekend, the resolutely analog candidate told The New York Times he is at last starting to learn how “to get online myself.” Perhaps he’ll retire his abacus by Election Day.

Picking myself off the floor from laughing after that one.

McCain’s fiscal ineptitude has received so little scrutiny in some press quarters that his chief economic adviser, the former Senator Phil Gramm of Texas, got a free pass until the moment he self-immolated on video by whining about “a nation of whiners.” The McCain-Gramm bond, dating back 15 years, is more scandalous than Obama’s connection with his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. McCain has been so dependent on Gramm for economic policy that he sent him to newspaper editorial board meetings, no doubt to correct the candidate’s numbers much as Joe Lieberman cleans up after his confusions of Sunni and Shia.

Just two weeks before publicly sharing his thoughts about America’s “mental recession,” Mr. Gramm laid out equally incendiary views in a Wall Street Journal profile that portrayed him as “almost certainly” the McCain choice for Treasury secretary. Mr. Gramm said that the former chief executive of AT&T, Ed Whitacre, was “probably the most exploited worker in American history” since he received only a $158 million pay package rather than the “billions” he deserved for his success in growing Southwestern Bell.

Coming on this news about the compensation packages of Houston's titans of the oil industry -- along with the free-market apologists in the comments -- this data about Gramm's employer, UBS, has even greater impact ...

But no one in the news media seemed to notice Gramm’s naked expression of the mindset he’d bring to a McCain White House. And few journalists have vetted the presumptive Treasury secretary’s post-Senate history as an executive at UBS. The stock of that banking giant has lost 70 percent of its value in a year after its reckless adventures in the subprime lending market. It’s now fending off federal investigation for helping the mega-rich avoid taxes.

McCain made a big show of banishing Gramm after his whining “gaffe,” but it’s surely at most a temporary suspension. When the candidate said back in January that there’s nobody he knows who is stronger on economic issues than his old Senate pal, he was telling the truth. Left to his own devices — or those of his new No. 1 economic surrogate, Carly Fiorina — McCain is clueless.

And then Rich zeroes in on McCain's, ah, changes of mind:

The term flip-flopping doesn’t do justice to Mr. McCain’s self-contradictory economic pronouncements because that implies there’s some rational, if hypocritical, logic at work. What he serves up instead is plain old incoherence, as if he were compulsively consulting one of those old Magic 8 Balls. In a single 24-hour period in April, Mr. McCain went from saying there’s been “great economic progress” during the Bush presidency to saying “Americans are not better off than they were eight years ago.” He reversed his initial condemnation of mortgage bailouts in just two weeks.

In February Mr. McCain said he would balance the federal budget by the end of his first term even while extending the gargantuan Bush tax cuts. In April he said he’d accomplish this by the end of his second term. In July he’s again saying he’ll do it in his first term. Why not just say he’ll do it on Inauguration Day? It really doesn’t matter since he’s never supplied real numbers that would give this promise even a patina of credibility.

Mr. McCain’s plan for Social Security reform is “along the lines that President Bush proposed.” Or so he said in March. He came out against such “privatization” in June (though his policy descriptions still support it). Last week he indicated he isn’t completely clear on what Social Security does. He called the program’s premise — young taxpayers foot the bill for their elders (including him) — an “absolute disgrace.”

Rich goes on to savage Carly Fiorina, the backup financial adviser as well as Mitt Romney, presumptive vice-presidential selection, as similarly economic-justice-challenged. But then he quite oddly advances former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg as the ultimate in Maverick picks for running mate.

Yeah, that ought to go over swimmingly with both Bloomberg -- himself heavily rumored earlier this year for the job McCain wants -- and the GOP base of obstructionists of reproductive choice and gay rights.

More Funnies

Not quite 300.

I know I promised reality last week, but states that are, in the aggregate, only one percentage point apart really belong in the undecided (grey) category. Thus the only changes from last Sunday are NV (blue) and AK (red). It's still out of reach for McCain and because the upper Midwest Ohio River Valley is where the contest will turn for him, expect him to pick someone like Mitt Romney (MI, kinda) or Rob Portman (OH) as his V-P. They both answer most of the doubts (McCain's age, conservative enough to satisfy the mad-dog GOP base) without raising any concerns (Crist being gay).

The only thing ultimately that his running mate will be is the Republican favorite for 2012.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>