Women, Wendy, and waiting

A popular topic lately among the chattering class in recent days seems to be that Texas women -- more specifically, suburban Texas women -- might have some role to play in Wendy Davis' political future. 

Ignore Dr. Murray's contention that Chris Bell got 43.3 percent of the 2006 vote.  (He gets the rest correct and I chalk that error up to him needing another intern for fact-checking.)  I just thought I had cleared up this deal a couple of months ago.

Update: it has been pointed out to me that by "major party vote", Dr. Murray accurately pushed up Bell's tally from 29.79% to the 43.3 he cites in the above link.  In other words, he excluded everybody who voted for Kinky Friedman and Carole Strayhorn in 2006 and then called the remainder whole.

I don't believe anyone -- no matter their pedigree -- can simply delegitimize the ballots of over 1.3 million Texans in order to reinforce a premise.

This is what is meant by the adage 'figures don't lie, but liars can figure'.  It is partisan and duopolistic at best -- and duplicitous and disingenuous at worst -- to manipulate data to reach your desired conclusion.  And it strains credibility to its breaking point for any reasonable person to call that 'accurate'.

It's helpful that Republicans -- from "Too Stupid" Robbie Cooper (I have been following this douchebag for years, so that you didn't have to) and "Retard Barbie" Jeff Rutledge all the way to Dave Carney and Greg Abbott himself -- keep pounding home the misogyny.  Conservo-scumbags Tweeting and blogging aren't ever going to be as influential as the experiences of exurban and rural Texas women like these, however. This is what's actually helping turn the worm faster.

A Texas woman who was shamed by her doctor for having a hickey and wanting birth control says she is now forced to drive four hours to a Planned Parenthood clinic for health care due to the state’s new anti-abortion laws.

Athena Mason told KUT that her first visit to the doctor as a student at Texas A&M was awkward.

“I had a hickey and the doctor was just like, you shouldn’t be doing that,” she recalled. “I’m like, ‘It’s a hickey, it’s nothing major.’ But I got a big lecture. [He said] my boyfriend was abusive and all of these things. And then I asked for birth control. I did not hear the end of that. So I said never mind, I’ll go somewhere else.”

Mason started using the Planned Parenthood clinic in Bryan. But that facility is one of four women’s health service providers that closed in August after the state passed new regulations restricting abortions.

So Mason now drives four hours to the Planned Parenthood clinic in Austin for health care.

Shamed by her doctor because she had a hickey. That's not The Onion, but it should be.

If we could just make Republicans understand that birth control provided to women prevents as many as 71% of all abortions, we might make some progress. Then we could say, "If you cut family planning clinics out of the state budget, you will have more abortions", and perhaps that fact would start to make some moral sense to the pro-birth crowd.

Nah; these are Republicans and this is logic. Who am I kidding?

As Ana Kasparian says, "If you vote Republican, and you have a vagina, you are a moron."  That is sadly and particularly true in Texas.  But as we wait for Wendy Davis to decide to run for governor, that message is already being received -- and understood -- by women everywhere.

Update: The waiting will be over on October 3rd.

People who aren't running for office (and those who shouldn't)

There are already some good news/bad news posts about who definitely might be/probably is running for office in 2014, so I thought I'd veer off into some of the developments regarding who isn't running...and perhaps should not be.

-- Like Anthony Weiner. I thought I had already said everything that needed saying on this topic, but "Carlos Danger" had to make an appearance. If you need to generate your very own semi-anonymous Twitter sexting handle, here that is. Just call me Pablo Hazard from now on.

What a disaster this guy is. What shame his poor wife lives under. Go away, buddy. Far, far away. Update: Already there's a slew of rancid comments that won't ever get approved. If it was wrong when Mark Sanford did it and wrong when David Vitter did it, it's wrong when a Democrat does it. This is real simple shit, people. This country only needs one political party completely immune to hypocrisy.

-- Not running for anything in 2014 is Annise Parker, as Noah helpfully points out.

Parker is very obviously running for re-election, a race that will last until the middle of December if there is a runoff. If she were to run statewide, it would require filing the signatures for the primary ballot about the same day as her third inauguration. There are some pretty outlandish politicians in Houston who would have the unmitigated temerity to do something like that, but Parker is not one of them.

Parker doesn't lack brass, but she is certainly smart enough to see that 2014 isn't going to be the year that Democrats break through. She can term out of the mayor's office and spend a year raising money for a bid in 2016 for whatever she wants, though I question Noah's premise that Congress is in her sights. She's an executive office-styled politico, and I would expect her to run for whatever statewide position might be available in a presidential election year. That's the path to her successful political future. Though I am still convinced that her best fit is state comptroller, that would have to come in 2018 against an incumbent Republican. Magic 8 Ball say "ask again later".

-- Kinky Friedman is also in the news again for the wrong reasons. Since he can't deny himself the media attention, let's join Kuffner and hope he bids for something downballot like Land or Ag Commish, as he did in 2010. He might actually make some noise next year if he did. For example, a Pee Bush/Kinky tilt for GLO commissioner in the fall of '14 has the potential to generate a lot of free media.

-- And it is still too early to be concerned with who is slinging mud in Houston city council races. You'll always have Campos for that. Or even Big Jolly for that matter (don't miss the thrust-and-parry in the comments). As I perused the archives here I found this old post from September of 2009 that suggests that things don't really heat up in this cycle until after the kids go back to school.

I cringe just thinking about having to blog about local politics during the worst of hurricane season.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is a little groggy and stumbling in the dark as it springs forward to bring you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff wrapped up his analysis of 2012 election returns versus 2008 returns with a look at the Congressional districts, and a suggestion for where Democrats should look next.

The prognosis for Medicaid expansion in Texas -- after a huge rally at the Capitol and many committee meetings and statements from legislators -- still appears to be guarded, observes PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.  

WCNews at Eye on Williamson believes there's no other conclusion to be drawn from SCOTX Justice Wallace Jefferson's State of the Judiciary speech this week: The Texas justice system is broken.

From McBlogger's Please God, Make It Stop! file comes Kinky Friedman 2014.

CouldBeTrue at South Texas Chisme notes that John Cornyn, one of 22 Republican men in the Senate who voted against the Violence Against Women Act, is now claiming credit. Cornyn was one of 30 Senate Republican men who voted against the Franken anti-rape amendment in 2010. What a prince Cornyn is.

Neil at Texas Liberal is in Los Angeles this week. Neil posted a picture of a Los Angeles police helicopter flying over Santa Monica Beach as the sun sets. This type of surveillance is far more picturesque than a drone hovering over you snapping pictures.

=======================

And here are some posts of interest from other blogs around Texas.

Better Texas Blog reminds us that Texas' public pensions are on sound financial footing.

Texas Leftist thinks the "Arkansas option" for Medicaid expansion isn't a good idea for Texas.

Socratic Gadfly notes that legislators tend to vastly overestimate how conservative their districts are.

The Great God Pan Is Dead reports that small press and independent comics are alive and well in Texas.

Burnt Orange Report says that if the Lege truly did give the people what they wanted, they'd restore funding to public education.

Juanita minces no words about Rick Perry.

Letters From Texas uses the math to remind us that John Cornyn is a fool.

The Rev. Beth Ellen Cooper writes about being lectured on morality by a couple of legislative staffers.

Mean Green Cougar Red has a few thoughts on Dubai becoming a hub for international air travel.

Texas Redistricting maps out what might happen to Texas' legislative districts after SCOTUS rules on the Voting Rights Act.

When In Session celebrates the bill filing deadline.

Lone Star Ma commemorates International Women's Day.

And while it doesn't have anything to do with politics, good beer news is always welcome.

Ralph Nader, a Democratic primary against Obama, and better options

With this news, Ralph Nader is once again inserting himself into the process of a presidential election.

Worried the liberal voice is being drowned out in the presidential campaign, progressive leaders said Monday they want to field a slate of candidates against President Obama in the Democratic primaries to make him stake out liberal stances as he seeks re-election.

Ralph Nader warns that without an intraparty challenge the liberal agenda “will be muted and ignored,” the one-man primary will kill voter enthusiasm and voters won’t get a chance to reflect on the real differences that divide the Democratic and Republican parties.

“What we are looking at now is the dullest presidential campaign since Walter Mondale — and that’s saying something, believe me,” Mr. Nader told The Washington Times.

The group’s call has been endorsed by more than 45 other liberal leaders. They want to recruit six candidates who bring expertise ranging from poverty to the military.

I think Nader probably is going to find -- like Dick Cheney twelve years ago --that he is ultimately the best man for the job. And that is bad for progressives and the progressive movement, whether perceptible progressive movement is occurring within the Democratic Party (it is not) or outside of it (barely).

In its recruitment letter, the group faulted the administration’s handling of the Wall Street bailouts, the wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the U.S. involvement in the military effort in Libya. They also criticized Mr. Obama’s decision to extend the Bush-era tax cuts and the recent deal he struck with Republicans over cutting spending to raise the debt ceiling.

“We need to put strong Democratic pressure on President Obama in the name of poor and working people” said Cornel West, an author and professor at Princeton University. “His administration has tilted too much toward Wall Street, we need policies that empower Main Street.

I have enormous respect for Dr. West and even agree with him for the most part. Nader is the problem here, however.

To be sure, there are plenty of Democrats who still hold a grudge against Nader for 2000. I believe that blame is misplaced, even when it comes from the most esteemed sources (.pdf). My rebuttal is that Theresa LePore, the Democratic elections administrator for Palm Beach County, Florida, designed a butterfly ballot so confusing that it caused thousands of elderly residents there to punch a chad for Pat Buchanan, thinking they were voting for Al Gore.

That's what most directly caused the defeat of Gore, IMHO, more than anything Nader did or did not do.

But Texas Democrats are also still litigating over the Texas Green Party's ballot access for 2012, secured not only with the generous help of prominent Republicans but also by the Democrats' own ineptitude at failing to field a candidate in 2010 for the state comptroller's contest. The Green in that race, Ed Lindsay, surpassed the 5% threshold to secure ballot listing for the GP in '12. I spoke out loudly against this unholy alliance at the time, but came around to the understanding that the Democrats did it to themselves.

So once more, misdirected outrage. But I digress.

Nader has actually accomplished things of great significance in his life, most notably automobile safety activism, but today is more of an egotistical geriatric -- a crank -- who appears to believe that only he is capable of representing the will of liberal people in the United States. He's sucked all of the oxygen out of the room for decades now, stunting progressive growth in this country in the process. If he spent time recruiting and training people to a/the cause in-between his various presidential bids (a la Wellstone Foundation, for example), I'd have more respect for him.

To Nader's credit, and unlike Jim Hightower -- a progressive who has reduced himself to mere grifter and attention whore ever since he endorsed Kinky Friedman for governor in 2010 -- he's never done anything solely for the money in his life, from what I can tell.

Anyway, I wish Nader wouldn't run at all for anything -- his time has long passed -- and I would really prefer that, rather than an Obama primary opponent, there be a significant and notable presidential challenge from the Green Party ... preferably someone whom Nader has 'blessed' to some degree or another (rather than take potshots at).

Maybe that's going to be David Cobb again. He's making the rounds in Texas next month as part of the "Move to Amend" effort. From the inbox:

The recent U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in Citizens United v. FEC opened the floodgates to unlimited corporate spending on elections.

David Cobb, an attorney and organizer for the Move to Amend coalition, will be touring Texas from October 2-10 to help local residents understand the history behind the recent decision and how they can work to abolish "Corporate Personhood" and establish a government of, by, and for the people by joining the Move to Amend campaign.

David Cobb is fiery speaker and former Green Party presidential candidate. His talk "Creating Democracy & Challenging Corporate Rule" is part history lesson and part heart-felt call-to-action!

“Corporate Personhood” is the court-created doctrine that gives corporations constitutional rights intended for human beings. “Corporate personhood is not an inconsequential legal technicality. The Supreme Court ruled that a corporation was a ‘legal person’ with 14th Amendment protections before they granted full personhood to African-Americans, immigrants, natives, or women”, says Cobb.

Move to Amend is a coalition of over 132,000 people and organizations whose goal is to amend the United States Constitution to end corporate rule and legalize democracy.

David is available for events in these places and tentative dates if we can find folks on the ground who will help us out:

• Bryan - College Station (Oct 2)
• Huntsville (Oct 3)
• Houston (Oct 4)
• San Antonio (Oct 5)
• San Marcos (Oct 6)
• Austin (Oct 9)
• Corpus Christi (Oct 10)

And wherever else you may be!

Update: Socratic Gadfly piles on.

Krazy Kathie Glass and Chicken Rick Perry

Let's just post this without any editorial comment from me.

HUMBLE - With a dash for the door after delivering a speech, Gov. Rick Perry avoided a confrontation with Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Kathie Glass.

Glass had said she was going to confront Perry over not debating her and other candidates for governor. But she waited until Perry finished his speech to the Texas Conservative Coalition 10th Amendment Town Hall meeting at the Humble Civic Center. Seated front row center, Glass raised a finger into the air and charged in Perry's direction.

But he was off the stage in an instant. Event organizers and the Department of Public Safety security detail had created a wall that kept Glass from getting close to Perry. Men stepped in her way as she came forward. The closest she got was about five feet from the governor.

UPDATED: Perry's campaign provided video on the agreement that I not post it to prove Perry shook her hand. However, the handshake did not last more than an instant, and Glass lost her balance stumbling backward as Perry withdrew his hand. This handshake occurred in an instant as Tom Glass passed in front of me.

"If you can't stand up to Kathie Glass, how can you stand up to the federal government?" Glass shouted after Perry as he exited the room.

Glass afterward said she believes Perry is afraid of defending his record in office.

"That is not leadership - to run away like a scared little boy from someone who just wants to engage you in debate," Glass said.

Glass said Perry is hoping few Texans pay attention when the other candidates engage in a televised debate on Oct. 19. "He is afraid to debate because he knows he will not show well," she said.

Oh, but there is video ...



And this, from Debra Medina's former spokesperson:

Some political observers have surmised that Gov. Rick Perry’s primary motive for avoiding public debates has more to do with Libertarian Kathie Glass than Democrat Bill White (or his tax returns). The logic: Perry is trying to prevent a repeat of upstart Debra Medina’s impressive debate performances during the GOP primary, which launched her from obscurity into the spotlight, until her campaign eventually faltered.

“That’s absolutely true. There’s two Democrats in this race: That’s Bill White and Rick Perry,” said Penny Langford Freeman, a representative for Medina, and Medina’s former campaign manager. “The only conservative is Kathie Glass, and he doesn’t want people to know that.” ...

According to the Chronicle, Glass shouted at Perry: “If you can’t stand up to Kathie Glass, how can you stand up to the federal government?”

Last bit of news: Kinky Friedman plans to endorse Glass. It's a dual endorsement with the canine he previously endorsed.

"I already said I would endorse Woodrow the dog," he explains. "He'll have to be my animal endorsement, and Kathie will be my human endorsement."

Weems captures DMN endorsement

The Dallas News got it completely wrong in the agriculture commissioner's race (after all, they endorsed Kinky in the March primary, so what could you expect?) but they got it right in the railroad commissioner's contest.

Seldom do we run into a first-time candidate for any office and wonder why that person hasn't already been elected to the job. But that's how impressed this newspaper is with Democrat Jeff Weems, who is seeking election to the Texas Railroad Commission.

The 52-year-old Houston attorney would be ready on Day One to make a significant contribution, which is why we strongly recommend him for the three-member panel.

His understanding of the industry shows. He can talk chapter and verse about energy issues, which the oddly named Railroad Commission oversees. And he is a sharp contrast to some candidates who shoot for the commission on their way to a higher post.

This newspaper also supports Weems because of the balanced view he articulates. He understands the importance of oil and gas production to the state's economy and, for example, doesn't favor a moratorium on Barnett Shale natural gas production.

We also agree with him that the Railroad Commission can't leave a void for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to fill when it comes to monitoring the practices of natural gas extraction. As an example, he wants producers to tell the commission what chemicals are in the fluids they use to unlock the gas from the Barnett Shale geological formation. Those trade secrets would be sealed but would still allow the commission to know, for environmental reasons, what goes into the hydraulic fracturing that companies use to extract the gas.

Weems wants the commission to be more aggressive in lobbying the Legislature about its goals. We particularly like his idea of limiting fundraising for this quasi-judicial post to selected times during a commissioner's six-year term. He would curtail fundraising shortly after a commissioner's election until essentially the member's next election cycle.

These are just some of the many examples of Weems' smart and thoughtful views. His opponent, Republican David Porter of Midland, filled out our questionnaire, but the 54-year-old CPA neither showed up for an interview alongside Weems nor returned a call seeking a phone interview. Roger Gary is running as a Libertarian, and Art Browning is running as a Green Party candidate.

Weems and Porter are competing for an open seat, so voters would be well-served to take the time to distinguish between these candidates and dig deeper than sound bites. Weems clearly has the qualifications – and then some – to bring common-sense leadership to this influential commission.

Weems' Republican challenger really is just as weird and unqualified as the DMN discovered. Weems is the only sensible choice for the Texas Railroad Commission.

Update: The Houston Chronic follows suit.

Repubs boot Adams, go with Munisteri | Libs pick Glass | Greens go with ...

A little news made by the GOP, the Libertarians, and the Greens yesterday. First, from the freaky deaky confab in Dallas ...

Texas Republicans on Saturday ousted their firebrand leader, conservative activist Cathie Adams, in favor of Houston businessman Steve Munisteri.

Delegates chose Munisteri to be the new state party chairman during their convention in Dallas.

Munisteri focused his campaign on the party’s $500,000 debt. The retired lawyer says Republicans should be in better financial shape since they control both houses of the Legislature and all statewide offices.

The internal struggle spilled onto the floor of the Dallas Convention Center, prompting a sometimes chaotic roll call vote of the delegates. Once officials announced Munisteri had won, Adams backers then proposed that she be selected as the party’s vice-chairwoman. Delegates picked Houston-area Republican activist Melinda Fredricks instead.

Adams is known as a take-no-prisoners conservative. The former leader of the Texas Eagle Forum had often criticized senior members of her own party, bucked business leaders by opposing their cherished lawsuit reform efforts, called global warming a “hoax” and used the specter of Adolf Hitler to warn of perceived Obama administration excesses.

Adams had not been in the job very long. She was chosen to lead the party in a special election in October after Tina Benkiser stepped down. Munisteri won a two-year term, which will expire when the Republicans meet at their next state convention in 2012.

Adams, head of the Texas wing of Phyliss Schafly's Eagle Forum and heavily involved early on Perry's re-election campaign, was the incumbent insider with allegations of "too much debt" against her. So she got teabagged -- even though her opponent had to work hard to appear as crazy as Adams. He obviously succeeded.

The Libs met in Austin and made their pick for governor:

Kathie Glass, a Houston attorney, has won the Libertarian Party nomination for Governor of Texas. She will face incumbent Governor Rick Perry and former Houston mayor Bill White in November.

"This is our time. We will leave this convention as a united party," said Glass. "Texans want smaller government and more freedom. This is the message that we bring."

"Regrettably, our current governor seems intent on running our state "Washington D.C." style instead of Texas style. Runaway taxes, exploding spending, escalating debt, ever-growing government, and confiscation of property so he can give it to foreign interests -- where will it end?" asked Glass.

"Kathie was nominated by our convention because of her strength, knowledge of the issues, and her sense of what's right for Texas," said Executive Director Robert Butler. "She knows the Libertarian answer for today's issues and she can explain it well for every audience."

Oh yeah, Kinky Friedman was the keynoter at their convention. Wasn't it just a few months ago he was telling us he'd always been a Democrat?

"I really think the Democrats and the Republicans have become the same guy, admiring themselves in the mirror," Friedman said. "Rick Perry and Bill White — it's like the lesser of two boll weevils. This is the classic choice between paper or plastic. I think the day has come for the Libertarians."

And the Greens, also convening yesterday in Austin, selected ...

... well, I'm still waiting to hear who they selected between Deb Shafto and Bart Boyce. There's video here of both candidates (the second of two on that page). I have made some inquiries and searches but there seems to be no word officially that I can find. I'll update here when I know.

Update: kat swift late last night reports that Deb Shafto was selected by Green delegates as their gubernatorial candidate. Here's a bio page from her bid for Houston city council last year and another video from that campaign as well.

Update II: More on Glass and Shafto, via jobsanger, from the Fort Worth Star-Tel.

Best, worst, and most surprising results from yesterday

-- Perry won without a run-off and Kay conceded fairly early, before it was known for certain whether there would be one. At least she's a quitter in that respect.

-- Bill White got 76% of the vote against his five challengers. Farouk Shami appears to have paid about $10,000 per vote with less than 13%. No one else even got to 5%.

I am both amazed at the result and disgraced in my prediction. Humble pie for a month.

-- Hank Gilbert salted away Kinky Friedman and it was as close as I thought it would be: 52-48. Linda-Chavez Thompson cruised past Ronnie Earle 53-35; Marc Katz had 12.

-- Hector Uribe barely got past Bill Burton for GLO commissioner. The percentage was 51.6 to 48.4 and Uribe trailed late into the evening.

-- Borris Miles defeated Al Edwards by eleven votes. Another incumbent in the Texas House, Fort Bend-area Rep. Dora Olivo, lost her primary challenge to Ron Reynolds.

-- Sheila Jackson Lee thumped her two rivals and drew 67% of her district's vote. I'm convinced she can have that seat for life if she wants to, and she deserves it. I hope some day I get gerrymandered back into the 18th.

-- Keisha Rogers will be the Democratic nominee for US Congress in CD-22, besting two challengers with 52%.

-- And Ann Bennett topped Sue Schechter in the race for County Clerk. 63-37, in my personal biggest shocker.

Worth noting: Reynolds, Burton, Rogers, and Bennett are all African American candidates and may have benefited from increased AA turnout across the state. Jackson-Lee's contest and the Miles-Edwards battle certainly boosted tallies in Harris County for Burton and Bennett.

Bennett will square off against TeaBagger Stan Stanart for Beverly Kaufman's old job. He trounced the establishment candidate, Kevin Mauzy 60.5-39.5. This race was already at the top of my list, but because the two expected participants were both upset, big, it becomes impossible to predict in November.

-- In other Republican results, Ed Emmett-appointed lackey Leo Vasquez got pummeled by Don Sumners 57-43 in the race for Harris County tax-assessor/collector. Oh, the woe of a having a Latin surname in a GOP primary. And beleaguered HCRP chairman Jared Woodfill enters a run-off for his job with reform candidate Ed Hubbard.

Early vote doubles in Harris County (and predicted outcomes)

With early voting coming to end this evening, more Houstonians are casting their ballots before next week's primary than in 2006, the last time Texans went to the polls to choose a governor.

According to daily early-voting updates compiled by Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman, a total of 55,960 had voted through midafternoon Thursday.

“It will easily double our turnout in early voting as of four years ago,” said Kevin Mauzy, chief deputy in the Harris County clerk's office. In 2006, the total number of early voters through Thursday afternoon was 33,362.

A total of 36,321 Republicans voted through Thursday. That number compares with 18,803 through the same period four years ago. On the Democratic side through Thursday, 23,914 voted early, compared with 6,454 in 2006.

My predictions for next Tuesday: Bill White gets the 60% Dr. Murray said he would; Governor AMF in a run-off with Kay Bailey; Hank Gilbert defeats Kinky Friedman in the race for commissioner of agriculture. Hector Uribe easily bests Bill Burton for commissioner of the general land office.

I can't predict the lieutenant governor contest between Linda Chavez-Thompson and Ronnie Earle, but Marc Katz might just get enough to force a run-off between them. Thompson has the surname advantage that usually sweeps a Democrat to victory in places like the Valley, but Earle's name recognition and perception of competence for the state's highest elected legislative job is formidable. I'll SWAG that Thompson finishes slightly ahead of Earle, run-off or no.

Sheila Jackson Lee comes in first against her two challengers in CD-18, but they hold her under 50% and she goes to a run-off with councilman Jarvis Johnson. Borris Miles edges Al Edwards in HD-146. And Sue Schechter just ahead of Ann Bennett for Harris County Clerk.  Here's a good story Chris Moran at the Chron did about the two women as well as the two Republicans running to replace Beverly Kaufman. Kevin Mauzy, quoted in the excerpt above, is one of them and is piling up his earned media, just as Kaufman promised.  Besides being the Chosen One, Mauzy seems competent and experienced and is running against an extreme party hack named Stan Stanart ...

Long a GOP activist, Stanart said he wants to give the public more confidence in the security and integrity of its elections. He suggested that not all voters are being asked for identification and that elections need protection from the activist group ACORN, which has been plagued by accusations of voter fraud. Stanart did not offer any instances of specific Harris County breaches, though. Stanart is also the former executive director of Citizens Lowering Our Unfair Taxes.

There's your TeaBagger, folks.  Do you think he can win next Tuesday?

Shami campaign staffers resign

Farouk Shami's campaign has imploded in the past few days. First there was an internal e-mail sent to media (including me) revealing inner turmoil over who was responsible for communications, and now this ...

Several top campaign aides to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Farouk Shami resigned today, said Charlie Ray, who had been the campaign’s press secretary.

Five staff members stepped down, including Ray, campaign director Vince Leibowitz, and communications director Kelly Love Johnson, Ray said.

The resignations come a day after the campaign’s internal chaos spilled into public when a bizarre e-mail exchange was, apparently inadvertently, sent to reporters.

On Tuesday, Ray and Shami gave out conflicting information about the roles of aides David Diaz and Jessica Gutierrez, both of whom had been sending out press releases on behalf of the campaign. Ray said that neither were authorized to speak for the campaign, but Shami said late Tuesday night that both had permission to give such statements.

More from Vince Leibowitz ...

“Clearly, (Shami) will not accept political strategy from the people who are there to provide it,” Leibowitz said.

Leibowitz and Ray, you may recall, had earlier replaced Jason Stanford, who ran Chris Bell's 2006 gubernatorial campaign and is now working for Kinky Friedman.

Bill White ought to be able to cruise to a run-off-free win in the primary and look forward to taking on Rick Perry in November (whether or not the governor clears the primary without a run-off).

Update: More from TrailBlazers and Texas Politics, including this ...

"Too many cooks in the kitchen," Ray said today.

Ray said it made it too difficult to "manage the message" when the campaign staff and staff from Shami's hair care company were both doing messaging.

Leibowitz said there was a difference over whether the professional campaign staff was going to run the show or Shami's corporate staff.

"You can see who won," Leibowitz said.

TexTrib poll blows up in their face again

Remember what I said yesterday about polls? It's particularly true of the Texas Tribune's Republican half of their most recent gubernatorial poll -- released today but conducted before the Medina truther kerfuffle, which will surely alter the numbers severely.

So disregard that right away. Let's take a quick look at what they have on the Democratic side, however.

White 50
Shami 11
Everybody else 9

Among Democratic voters, 30 percent were undecided, and of those, 48 percent, when pressed, said they lean toward White. With White already at 50 percent, that means Shami would have to strip votes away from him in order to force a runoff or to claim a win.

That's now two three polls showing pretty much the same result, and both all were conducted in the week prior to their debate on February 7. So with the previous advice about polling value in mind, White may improve on his position. And if these are numbers are accurate I have to eat crow served by Dr. Murray.

Democratic primary voters have a couple of other statewide races to decide. In the contest for lieutenant governor — the winner will face Republican incumbent David Dewhurst in November — labor leader Linda Chavez-Thompson took 18 percent of those polled, former Travis County District Attorney Earle got 16 percent, and restaurateur Marc Katz had 3 percent. Five percent of voters said they wanted "somebody else," and a whopping 58 percent remain undecided on the eve of early voting, which begins on Tuesday.

Recall that the TCUL's numbers from February 3,4, and 6 were Earle 25, Chavez-Thompson 18, and Katz 5. Ms. Chavez-Thompson's is the only campaign with any visibility to me in this contest.

Friedman and Gilbert — two refugees from the governor's race now running for agriculture commissioner — are locked in a tight race, 32 percent to 27 percent. While Friedman's ahead, the difference is within the poll's margin of error. And, as with the Lite Guv race, “undecided” is actually leading, at 41 percent.

These two are going at each other hammer and tong. After the DMN disguised a slap at Gilbert with a lukewarm endorsement of Friedman, Gilbert shoved back with this:

Kinky told the El Paso Times Tuesday, among other nonsensical things, that Governor Perry could win re-election and "will probably be President".  This despite running four years ago in the governor's race as a spoiler and taking votes from the actual Democrat.

"We knew that Kinky's baggage would be used to damage the Democratic ticket by suppressing minority turnout," said Gilbert campaign consultant Mike Lavigne referring to questionable comments in the candidate's recent past.  "But we didn't expect him to dismiss the Democratic gubernatorial nominee before there even was one."

Kinky then countered with an endorsement of Bill White. Stay tuned for more headlines today from these two, and probably every day until Election Day.

Last interesting bit from the TexTrib's poll ...

How strong is the Tea Party movement, and who does it steal votes from? Asked the generic congressional question with that movement included as a third organized party, 21 percent said they would choose the Republican, 36 percent would choose the Democrat, and 16 percent would vote for the Tea Party candidate. More than a fourth — 27 percent — said they were undecided. So the Democratic numbers held, while Republicans lost 16 points to the Tea Party and the rest to undecided.

"The electorate is responding to whatever it is they're associating with the Tea Party — at the expense of the Republicans," Henson said. While that's not necessarily to the advantage of the Democrats, he said it will have an effect on the majority party: "The tea party is going on in the Republicans' house."

Take that with a grain of salt, and now toss it out.

Update: Katherine at Burnt Orange adds the results of the Research 2000 poll conducted by the Daily Kos, and rounds up all of the February polls in pretty side-by-side graphs. That view makes it seem likely that Governor MoFo doesn't clear a run-off -- but again, the Medina gaffe's effect is reflected in none of them.

So hit the reset button ... or the flush handle.

The Snooze can't work out the Kinks in their endorsement

It is truly a remarkable day for the New Media when my friend Neil at Texas Liberal trumps the Dallas Morning News in the logic associated with their respective endorsements for Texas commissioner of agriculture.

But don't take my word for it...

In the contested Democratic primary for Agriculture Commissioner, the Dallas Morning News has endorsed Kinky Friedman over Hank Gilbert. Well, maybe we should say: The News has opposed Gilbert over Friedman, since the editorial is more of a knock on the former than an attaboy to the latter.

I don't know who over at the Kingdom of Belo wrote that endorsement, but they have lost their f'ing minds. Essentially the DMN doesn't care about details. They just like cigars.

The Dallas Morning News Editorial Board must be smoking crack for endorsing Kinky Friedman in the Democratic Primary for Agriculture Commissioner. One thing the DMN didn't remember is that Friedman is not a Democrat. Never has been. Never will be. You would think if you were going to endorse a Democrat, endorse one that is actually a Democrat and one that knows something about what he is running for.

Forget, for a moment, the mischaracterization of Hank's position on global trade (he's for FAIR not FREE trade... I think we can all agree that the effect of free trade has been detrimental on balance to this country as we've seen GDP go up and wage growth stagnate). The issue is Hank's opposition to impounding, under water, 72,000 acres of productive land in East Texas. And what the DMN failed to mention is that the water district that covers Dallas is the most wasteful in the state.

Hank's position, which he made clear, was to enhance conservation and begin building desalinization plants capable of producing the water that Texas needs. For one thing, desertification is becoming a problem in Texas and rainfall more and more erratic. In point of fact, reservoirs are just not going to cut it. We need a better solution and pressure exchange desalinization is very cheap and very easy. Who knows, maybe our good buddy on the Ed Board William McKenzie just hasn't been keeping up with changes in technology.

There's only one person who deserves to be the Democratic nominee for ag commissioner, and it's not Kinky Friedman.

Hank versus Kinky

Lots and lots of news about the Democratic primary contest for commissioner of agriculture. What follows is a selection of excerpts and links to the source, which I recommended following and reading entirely.

Democratic agriculture commissioner candidates Kinky Friedman and Hank Gilbert met for their first, and likely only, editorial board meeting together late Friday afternoon at The Dallas Morning News.

Friedman balked when he arrived and heard Gilbert was attending. He said he had not been told of the joint session. Editorial board staff told him it was written in a letter he had received.

But Friedman need not have worried. His counterpart showed up half an hour late. This left Friedman time to talk about following the "Hightower model," throw in some jabs at Gov. Rick Perry and use his latest line, "putting the culture back in agriculture." ...

Gilbert talked about his agricultural background and his desire to build reservoirs and develop desalination plants across the state.

At one point, Friedman looked over at Gilbert and said, "Taken together, we'd probably make up an adequate human being."

He got a smirk from Gilbert who responded, "I'm gonna have to dispute that."

More from Trail Blazers, including these ...

Kinky: Longhorns to Haiti

Gilbert: Campaign cash for clothes

Kinky: Jason Stanford and Chris Bell (and a dog)

And from the DMN a couple of weeks ago ...Friedman, Gibert butt hat brims in tense stand-off:

When Friedman took a break, during the speeches, Gilbert followed him. The showdown took place outside the conference room, the brim of Gilbert's white cowboy hat up against Friedman's black one.

"There is no reason to bring up things that are not relevant to this campaign," Gilbert said. "That's old-time politics that have long passed by."

Friedman pulled his trademark cigar out of his mouth and denied leaking any information.

"I don't know what you're talking about," he said, shaking his head. Gilbert backed off, and Friedman suggested to his campaign manager that they go outside to defuse the situation.

As you might imagine, the Texas left blogosphere has been lively about all of this.

The World's Most Dangerous Beauty Salon, Inc.:

Juanita Jean likes cowboys. So, when Hank Gilbert decided to re-enter politics, she was pleased. But then Hank couldn’t decide what horse to ride, who was in charge of paying the band, or who his dance partner is. It was a goat rodeo. ...

“It’s gonna take a faith healer, a voodoo doll, and a 20 car prayer meeting to get this guy’s campaign back on track ...”

“He’s throwing us into Kinky Friedman’s arms,” Juanita moans, “and, Honey, there have been some things in Kinky’s arms that require an environmental impact study just to move across the room. I’m not overly anxious to be there, but at least he seems to know what he’s doing most the time.” I suspect she heard me snort. “I said MOST!” she reiterated.

jobsanger:

A few days ago, the campaign again blundered. After meeting with National Farmer's Union president Roger Johnson, Gilbert announced that Johnson had endorsed him to be Texas Agriculture Commissioner. The only problem with that is Mr. Johnson said he had NOT made any endorsement in the race.

Again the campaign came up with a rather weak excuse for the error. They said they'd been getting so many endorsements that they just made a mistake. That sounds like a pretty egregious mistake. Is the campaign so disorganized that it can't even keep something as simple as an endorsement straight?

Gilbert ran a pretty good campaign in 2006. Even though he didn't win, he actually got more votes than the Democratic candidate for governor did. But his 2010 campaign seems to be a comedy of errors.

McBlogger:

The interview was little more than a careening mess with Friedman clearly not cognizant that the position really involves more than just name dropping and asking Hightower what he'd do. And, of course, it gave Friedman a chance to misrepresent the DMN for calling him the safe, sane choice (which they did, but only when it comes to driving habits) ...

But what really got me what was him dropping out there that he'll increase Democratic vote by 7%, according to a good pollster. Which is cool except for one thing... now one knows how much of the Democratic electorate, made up of a large number of the same racial minorities Kinky has used for his insipid comedy routine for years, will decide to come out because he's on the ballot.

On the other side is Hank Gilbert. He can actually say he's done what Kinky claims he can do. He pulled 7% over the Democratic base vote in 2006 and he's only gotten stronger with Independents and moderate Republicans since through his work to kill the TTC. And, as an added bonus, he doesn't anger the Democratic base.

Texas Cloverleaf:

Both Hank and Kinky do have good ideas. They both hate toll roads. They both like ranches. Both really like animals. But what bothers me the most is the character of the man that we are about to elect. Sure, the recent news on Hank not wearing his seatbelt or driving on a revoked license is not the best thing out there, but it sure doesn't beat nigger eggs. Oh, you are wondering why I used that term? Well, it is because the Kinkster did, so it must be cool, right? No, it isn't cool. ...

We can not have an "entertainer" who has spent more time on a tour selling books, cigars, and salsa running a serious commission in the state. Remember the last slew of actors we elected to office? Ronald Reagan. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Jesse Ventura. Jerry Springer. How did those work out? I would rather have the guy who was a school teacher and a rancher deciding how our agriculture is promoted in Texas. That would be Hank Gilbert.

Chavez-Thompson to file for lt. governor today

Linda Chavez-Thompson, a national leader within the AFL-CIO and the Democratic Party, plans to enter the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, according to a source familiar with her plans.

She is expected to file today at state Democratic Party headquarters.

Former Travis County prosecutor Ronnie Earle and Austin deli owner Marc Katz are also seeking the Democratic nomination. The Republican nominee will probably be incumbent David Dewhurst.

Chavez-Thompson, a former AFL-CIO executive vice president, can tap a national network of organizing and fundraising contacts.

This is now easily the most exciting primary race on the ballot (all apologies to Rick v. Kay and Kinky v. Hank).  With Ronnie Earle collecting the progressive populist bloc, Thompson the Hispanics and labor, and Marc Katz the ... uh ... Jewish deli faction, this contest will shape up as a critical display of Democratic constituent stress testing. My humble O is that with either Thompson or Earle, Democrats don't lose.  Dewhurst has money but no respect among state Senators nor the TeaBag faction, which will dictate terms to the GOP this cycle.

Quan in (and other candidate filings)

-- Martha and John (why, it's almost as if they're the same person!) have posts up about Gordon Quan's entry to the race for Harris County judge. I am not as enthusiastic as I was before I learned that Quan endorsed two Republicans -- MJ Khan and Stephen Costello -- in the recently-concluded Houston municipal elections. But my cooling to his candidacy makes him no less a force against "Hunker Down" Ed. Charles has more.

-- Grits has some of the state's judicial filings. Democrats are still short on candidates for Texas Supreme Court and the regional Courts of Appeals, as well as Congressional challengers.

-- So far the statewide executive ballot for Texas Democrats in March looks like this:

Governor: Bill White, Farouk Shami, Bill Dear, Alma Aguado, Felix Rodriguez

Lt. Governor: Ronnie Earle, Marc Katz

Attorney General: Barbara Ann Radnofsky

Comptroller of Public Accounts:

Commissioner of Agriculture: Kinky Friedman, Hank Gilbert

Commissioner of the General Land Office: Bill Burton of Athens

Chief Justice, 1st Court of Appeals: Morris Overstreet of Houston

Justice, 14th Court of Appeals, Place 5 - Unexpired Term: Wally Kronzer of Houston

Justice, 14th Court of Appeals, Place 9: Tim Riley of Houston

Justice, 1st Court of Appeals, Place 8: Unexpired Term: Robert Ray of Houston

Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals, Place 4: Kurt Kuhn of Austin

Justice, 4th Court of Appeals, Place 2: Unexpired Term: Rebeca C. Martinez of San Antonio

Justice, 5th Court of Appeals, Place 12 - Unexpired Term: Lawrence J. Praeger of Dallas

Justice, Texas Supreme Court, Place 9: Blake Bailey of Tyler

(These are candidate filings as posted at the TDP's website as of today.)

Did I miss anybody? The deadline is next Monday.

Pre-Christmas Wrangle

Only three (and maybe one-half) shopping days left before Christmas. Have you finished reading the Texas Progressive Alliance's highlights from the blogs?

As the deadline to file for a place on the 2010 March primary ballot drew near, there was lots of activity on the Democratic side: Kinky Friedman followed Hank Gilbert over to the race for agriculture commissioner, Linda Chavez-Thompson was rumored to be running for lt. governor, and, late on Friday, Ronnie Earle dropped his name in the hat for that same post. There's more on all this news from PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

BARNETT SHALE GAS THREATENS HUMAN HEALTH ! TXsharon posted the final results of the DISH, TX health survey at Bluedaze.

WhosPlayin broke the story about a former Republican county commissioner who got arrested this week for shoplifting a vacuum cleaner.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wonders why some men in power (here, here, here, here and here) think that abusing women and children is their right? Why does Senator Cornyn choose to enable rapists?

Over at Bay Area Houston, John Coby is bored and thinks Kay Bailey Hutchison's commercial sounds like a Whataburger commercial.

Looking for ways to green up your life? Start by making some thoughtful changes to the way you spend your holiday, and check out Texas Vox' Green Up Your Life: Holiday Edition for tips and tricks!

Neil at Texas Liberal wrote about the fifth anniversary of the terrible Indian Ocean tsunami, in Five Years Since Terrible Indian Ocean Tsunamia --People Are Recovering. While many are still suffering from the impact of this killer wave, there are also many who are recovering and getting back their lives.

The folks over at McBlogger are desperate for your help! Find out how you can do them a solid when you help get a planet named for the blog!

Xanthippas at Three Wise Men covers the utter failure of tort "reform" in Texas (with a h/t to John Coby.)

The Texas Cloverleaf highlights the charge against the Denton County district attorney's office of racial discrimination and harassment in the workplace.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson writes on the fact that elected Texas Republicans still have no sensible ideas about how to pay for roads in the post Dewhurst and transportation funding.

Off the Kuff took a look at precinct data in the Houston mayoral runoff.

lightseeker has a question for you over at TexasKaos: Is Arnold's California a harbinger of our nations' future? Check out his analysis in Deadlock, facts , partisans --Is California a foretaste of 0ur collective future?

XicanoPwr reports that anti-immigration grinches are wanting to replace dreams of success with a lumps of coal by filing a lawsuit challenging Texas' DREAM Act, the statute that allows undocumented students to pay in-state rates, provided they meet certain criteria. Their grinch-like behavior would rather punish these extremely vulnerable students for the sins of their undocumented parents instead of rewarding them for wanting to contribute to our society by making college tuition a bit more affordable, since they already are ineligible for financial aid.

Justin at Asian American Action Fund Blog is excited that Houston has one of the first hospital Asian care units in the nation.

Kinky follows Gilbert to Ag Commish

Let's start with the TexTrib's report. Skip the obvious and scroll down to this:

(Kinky's campaign consultant Colin) Strother says while Friedman did consider the land commissioner post, he felt the agriculture commissioner job was "the best fit". Friedman spent the past week getting advice from his friend, former Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower.

"I've got a pretty detailed plan of action that we'll be rolling out later in the week," Friedman said. "From forming a statewide public defenders' office and setting a goal of at least one animal rescue facility in each county, to restoring our depleted woodlands and promoting a greater role for local producers in school cafeterias, we're going to shake things up and show folks what the office can be if you have someone there who actually cares about the job."

"He's really energetic and excited about it," said Strother. "[He's excited about] the great diversity of things it can do for rural Texas - from economic development, to land and soil conservation... The first thing he wants to do is get an animal rescue facility in every county in Texas. Biofuels and animal rescue were the clinchers."

Friedman says he'll officially file on Tuesday...

That's probably the biggest disappointment here; that Jim Hightower gave him this nudge.

There were hints over the weekend. Kinky had his visits with Farouk Shami and Bill White, and let this slip to the Conroe Courier (hat tip to The MoCo Report) ...

Friedman said he (had) discussed running for Texas Agriculture Commissioner with former commissioner Jim Hightower, singer Willie Nelson and Bill White.

“What I learned is that as agriculture commissioner there was almost nothing I couldn’t do that I couldn’t do as governor,” Friedman said.

Friedman would have been better served by his advisers -- not to mention his own brain -- had he entered any other contest besides the one with the best progressive and the highest Democratic vote-getter in 2006.

I think I could have voted for him if he had chosen Land Commissioner. But not now.

Update: Reactions from Muse, McBlogger, Trail Blazers, Texas Politics, and Poli-Tex. And also Hank Gilbert himself ...

“Since exploring a race for governor, Kinky has had a cigar promotion tour, a book promotion tour and a documentary released about his last run all in an attempt to promote his publishing and business interests. He doesn’t care about running for office for the sake of helping people. He’s looking for the best and most cost-efficient way of building name recognition to sell his products and himself. He’s figured out that an entertainer running for office can generate earned media to help boost his book sales and sell tickets to his shows,” he continued.

“Texas needs bold, common-sense leadership at the Texas Department of Agriculture in order to address the many issues facing consumers, family farms, food producers, and the other industries regulated by the agency. All of these issues directly effect the citizens of this state on a daily basis. People don’t need someone more concerned about self-promotion than selfless public service,” Gilbert said.

Updates to earlier posts: BAF, Shami, Kinky, Kay, and Locke

-- Michael McCaul is getting all of the blame for letting the BAF Systems contract slip away to Wisconsin, despite even Bill White involving himself in some last-ditch effort to save it. More at Off the Kuff and Burnt Orange.

-- Farouk Shami -- in the wake of Hank Gilbert's withdrawal and endorsement -- is firing staffers and catching hell over his voting record -- or lack thereof.

-- Kinky is going to take a few more days to decide what to do. Update: Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson took out a personals ad begging for some competition.

-- Kay Bailey filed for governor yesterday, and then she quickly lost control of the day. She caught some flak for it, too.

-- The Gene Locke campaign has been paying for those gay-baiting mailers. Which also explains why he never renounced the endorsement from Hotze's group. How much deeper in the sewer can this campaign sink? Every day brings another fresh-yet-foul flush. More from Kuffner, Muse, Erik, Stace, Neil, and John.

Update: Nick Anderson again with the slam dunk.


Update II: Rick Casey ...

It was bad enough when mayoral candidate Gene Locke told us with a straight face that he wasn't rejecting the endorsement of Steve Hotze and his Conservative Republicans of Harris County political action committee because Hotze was backing him on the basis of something other than his opponent's sexual orientation.

“If it's based solely on that one issue I've rejected them,” Locke said when asked during a TV debate why he accepted Hotze's endorsement. “If it's based on looking at my record and seeing that I am the better candidate, I would accept them.” ...

Now Locke wants us to believe that neither he nor his campaign had anything to do with the fact that his campaign finance chairman, longtime political patron and activist Ned Holmes, and finance committee member James Dannenbaum each gave a whopping $20,000 to Hotze's political action committee just days before that committee sent out the mailer endorsing him over Parker. ...

According to Hotze's report, his committee was flat broke as of three weeks ago. Since then he raised $56,000, of which $40,000 came from Locke's two backers. (The) report shows about $9,700 in expenses for the mailing in November and a balance of $44,285 in the bank.

It's long past time for the Locke campaign to slither back into the ditch they came from. More with video at KHOU.

What's Kinky going to say on Monday?

Ross Ramsey thinks he'll slide down the ballot and challenge Hank Gilbert. First, Friedman's statement about today's events ...

"I think that all of these things are good for the party and good for the ticket. We all want new leadership in Austin and I think each candidate should be evaluating how best to achieve that. Everyone on the ticket or thinking of joining the ticket should be thinking about what will be best for Democrats in November. We will take the weekend to visit with all of the candidates, my advisors, and many of my supporters and have an announcement about how I believe I can best support our party on Monday."

Follow that with this:

Don't be surprised if he moves to another race. And don't forget that one of the people in this particular smoke-filled room is former Texas Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower, who knows a little something about one of the agencies on the ballot.

Ever since Tom Schieffer dropped out of the race — he endorsed Houston Mayor Bill White on the way out — the Democrats have been talking about changes on the ballot. With two seriously well-finance candidates in the governor's race — Shami and White — there are millions of incentives for the other candidates to find something else to do. After an initial meeting with state party Chairman Boyd Richie, nobody moved. But reality is setting in, and there are open slots on the ballot that need to be filled by people — people who might otherwise get pureed in a contest that includes two candidates with big treasuries.

A bit of ballet lies ahead if Friedman wants to run for agriculture commissioner. Gilbert endorsed Shami and Shami "accepted" his endorsment and said nice things about him. But he didn't endorse Gilbert for ag commissioner. Shami is a longtime business associate of John McCall, who was Friedman's financial angel in the 2006 race for governor. McCall hasn't been nearly as generous this time around — you have to wonder if that has anything to do with having two friends in the same race — and might be more comfortable if Friedman ran for, say, ag commissioner. As long as there's no deal to break between Shami and Gilbert, that could work.

To that I say "harumph". If Kinky drops out of the governor's race and wants another statewide position, then I think he ought to run for land commissioner, like K-T (no disrespect to Bill Burton).

Truth to tell ... I'd just as soon see him go away.

More on White and the battle for governor

Still digesting yesterday's news and reading the tea leaves and (insert your own favorite cliche'). For now I'll excerpt what I find and emphasize the most interesting. First, this HouChron story doesn't tell us much new beyond sandwiches served at Sunday afternoon's meeting between Tom Schieffer and Bill White.

Several sources close to White said the decision to switch races was made at the Sunday meeting with Schieffer and his adviser, Lyndon Olson, who was a Clinton administration ambassador to Sweden. Houston lawyer Scott Atlas also was at the meeting. White insisted he still is in the listening stage.

“Right now, people want folks who are competent and shoot straight, don't engage in cronyism and get things done,” he said. “I've had a lot of people bending my ear about what I ought to do next, and I ought to listen to them.”

More on Scott Atlas if you need to know it. Harvey Kronberg has more of the juicy grist (is that an oxymoron?) in this from QR:

In the words of Democratic advisor Harold Cook, “You better get your popcorn and go to the bathroom 'cuz you don’t want to miss a minute of this.” ...

In a first sort-through, the big damage may well be to Kay Bailey Hutchison. While we never expected big Democratic crossover vote into the Republican March primary, an effort to stop Farouk Shami and Kinky Friedman with an “A” team candidate becomes more important. (No disrespect to Hank Gilbert who has run a very active, issue oriented campaign)

An exciting Democratic primary cannot be good for the Republican gubernatorial challenger.

Harvey's spot on here. I'll go further, however: there's not a lot of difference between Hutchison and White once you take the party label off. Establishment, conservative, calm, even bland. The rumors you heard months ago about her funneling clues to him about her plans suggests that the two have something more than just shared Houston governmental policy interests. Before I digress ...

On the other hand, Governor Perry’s life just got a little more complicated. Even Hutchison supporters acknowledge that he has driven the narrative of the campaign and out-maneuvered his challenger at every turn. Hutchison went from twenty points (up) at the end of last year to 12 down in recent polls. Although the primary is still a hundred days away, the betting line has been consistently swinging toward the incumbent.

More on that from this anonymous blogging GOP consultant (via Kuffner)...

White seems to be the best shot at the governor’s mansion, and that’s trouble for Rick Perry’s campaign. Slipping by with 39% of the vote in 2006, Perry will fare poorly in a head-to-head with White. Moderates in Houston will mostly back White, who is widely popular there. The trick for White will be spreading the Houston support throughout the rest of the state.

On the R’s side, primary voters will be faced with a pretty clear choice: nominate a candidate (Perry) who will struggle to beat a widely popular Houston mayor, or a candidate (Hutchison) whose statewide popularity is unmatched in recent Texas political history. No matter what happens, Perry will have to shift to the center. He’s been driving hard right for a long time, though… it’s possible that he may never be able to win over moderates at this point.

Back to Harvey:

Bill White in the primary and the general undercuts one of the anchors upon which Team Perry has been counting. Private polling indicates that in a two-way with Hutchison, Perry will dominate in the greater Houston area, no doubt because of his high visibility and impressive performance during two hurricanes.

Only White can trump Perry’s long shadow in voter-rich Houston. More importantly, White is transitioning directly from mayor to gubernatorial candidate which means his name ID is still high and his fundraising should not be impaired.

Houston/Harris County/Houston-Galveston metro or whatever other title you want to give "Greater Houston" represents something on the order of 20% of the entire statewide Democratic vote tally; maybe a bit less for the GOP (they're stronger in suburban and rural Texas, naturally). A swing of millions of votes from the Republican to the Democrat at the top of the ticket lifts the other down-ballot boats. More on that from HK just down from here.

Now let's not be naïve. Perry already has the opposition research on White. Expect to hear about under-funded public pensions and who knows what else in Houston. But that is pretty far down the road. White has plenty of time to put the book together on Perry and Hutchison … and now he can go back to his contributor list and hit them up for five-figure donations rather than the paltry $2,300 limit for a federal race.

Probably more like six figures in White's case.

Perry still holds the statewide name ID and charisma advantage over White should he win the primary. Consultant Dave Carney, pollster Mike Baselice and media maestro David Weeks have plenty of practice at this statewide election stuff and they start with a candidate the camera loves. However, Perry is considered a more polarizing figure (whose) strengths work best in a primary rather than a general election.

It’s no secret that some Republican House members worry that (Perry leading a) November ticket against a strong Democrat could well cost the GOP more seats going into a redistricting year. ...

And there's the most valuable bit: with all of this media attention on White, postponing a decision for the next two weeks spreads the fire wider. Everybody (D & R) who has thought about running for something in 2010 has to assess what it means for their prospects. In state Senate and House districts, in the courthouses (especially in Harris County) and at the statewide level, thousands of aspiring politicos woke up early this morning and are Twittering and texting even as I type this.

With White in the race, it may also become easier to flesh out the rest of the ticket. Eliott Shapleigh had been rumored to consider a statewide race, but perhaps Lt. Governor might be more enticing. Although we are only teasing a long shot, a spot on the Legislative Redistricting Board in 2011 would give him some serious leverage with his former colleagues should he somehow find himself as the presiding officer.

Kirk Watson may be reconsidering a statewide run, but his public reaction gave no clue. Barbara Radnofsky has been toiling the field in a quest for AG for over a year.

Sure, Kinky Friedman is running for Guv and Marc Katz says he is running for Lite Guv. But frankly, that is just another way of saying one is selling baloney and the other is selling pastrami.

Top-shelf New York Deli stuff, Harvey.

Republicans still have the incumbency advantage and are more battle-tested. And although Texas is still a center-right state, demographics are changing and Texas could turn purple sooner than anyone expects.

Meanwhile, the entire field in the greater Harris County area just got shook up. Republican-targeted Democrat Kristi Thibaut is in a little more secure position today than she was yesterday. Similarly, Democrat-targeted Republicans Dwayne Bohac and Ken Legler are on shakier ground than they were just a few hours ago.

Thibaut, Valinda Bolton, Joe Heflin, Diana Maldonado, and those other Texas House Democrats elected two years and four years ago that closed in on the majority are likely feeling very encouraged. Bohac, Legler, turncoat Chuck Hobson and half a dozen other Republicans across the state ought to be very concerned. TeaBagger mania just can't stay stoked all the way to next November; the fury is already waning and the Republicans will fragment into a back-biting morass by this time next year.

Finally, this from Bradley Olson about White and how he speaks to the evangelicals:

Accepting a plaque from the U.S. Pastor Council, a group of largely conservative Houston-area ministers whose executive director recently discussed plans to persuade voters not to choose City Controller Annise Parker because of her sexual orientation, White repeatedly emphasized tolerance and love and the separation of church and state.

Although the mayor has publicly stated that he hopes the race will not devolve into attacks dealing with race or sexual orientation, he did not mention the mayor's race at all in his remarks, although the subtext was there in almost every sentence.

White, who has proudly touted his Sunday-School-teacher bona fides even in the most unusual situations (a fact not lost on the pastor group, members of which heaped praise upon him), cited numerous references of scripture in urging those present not "to judge" as they jump into the political sphere.

Just as Jesus urged followers in the Sermon on the Mount (see Matthew 6) not to "pray in public to be seen," so too should faithful Christians avoid judging others and expressing their own "public righteousness," White said.

How many Republican votes all across Texas do you think that's worth?