Not the last word on Nuge

The national media finally caught up with the past week's story over the weekend (and to start the week).  Progress Texas has a good roundup.  But the last word, for now, goes to the DMN's Tod Robberson.

My guess is that Davis will not suffer long-term damage from relatively minor misstatements regarding her background. But Abbott did himself some serious damage by attaching himself to Nugent, a man who cannot seem to control his mouth and has a penchant for making racist and sexist remarks. There is also, of course, his background of affairs with underage girls and his days as a draft dodger during the Vietnam War. It’s beyond me why Abbott would see Ted Nugent as an admirable figure who would be an asset to his campaign.

But since Abbott hasn’t issued a statement of regret, I guess he’s still OK with the decision. Which means he not only demonstrates bad judgment unworthy of a leading gubernatorial candidate but also lacks the perspective of someone who knows when to stop fighting a losing battle. That’s the kind of hubris that just screams for a humiliating defeat.

Abbott's refusal to distance himself from Nugent is a tremendous, enormous mistake; maybe the biggest one he will make during the entire campaign.  Davis must tar and feather him with the child predator's slurs, and she must do so repeatedly, all the way to November.  How effective she is in pasting Ted Nugent to Greg Abbott will all but determine whether her contest is winnable in the fall.  If she lets it fade into the background...

There remains a huge well of free media still to earn (because Nugent keeps running his vile mouth publicly, and will go on doing so), and the continuing narrative helps Davis significantly with moderates and independents (precisely who she needs voting for her in order to win).  Most importantly, the episode cuts right to heart of Abbott's weakest link: his judgment and his character.

Nugent is a gift that is going to keep on giving, and you don't get too many of those in politics.

UT/TexTrib poll has Kesha Rogers leading the field in Dem US Senate primary

There aren't any other huge surprises in this (historically unreliable) data.

In the Democratic primary, the candidate who has been on the ballot the most times, Kesha Rogers, leads the best-financed candidate, David Alameel, 35 percent to 27 percent. Maxey Scherr had 15 percent, followed by Harry Kim at 14 percent and Michael Fjetland at 9 percent. Voters are largely unfamiliar with those candidates; 74 percent initially expressed no opinion before being asked how they would vote if they had to decide now.

“This is what it looks like when you have a bunch of candidates, no infrastructure and no money,” (polling co-director Jim) Henson said. “The first person to raise some money and run some ads could really move this.”

I think Henson has that accurate; Alameel's voluminous mailings and TV ads should get him into the lead by the time all the votes are counted.  But I warned a couple of my EVBB friends week before last that I feared an Alameel/Rogers runoff, and now it looks like I'm left to hope that the TexTrib's polling lives up to its comically bad reputation.  However there's greater confidence to be found in their other numbers...

-- Abbott 47, Davis 36, Don't know 17.  About right, I would say.  Update: And yes, it is worth noting that this poll concluded before the Ted Nugent crap exploded (pun intended), so the effect of the most significant development of the entire campaign is not reflected here.

-- Cornyn 62, Stockman 16, everybody else in single digits that total 15.  Also about right, and in defiance of what was released last week (somebody is awfully wrong, that's for sure).  The Conservative News distribution probably doesn't save Stockman, either.

-- Dewhurst 37, Patrick 31, Staples, 17, Patterson 15.  Nothing to quarrel over here, either.  Remains to be seen whether Patrick's Ill Eagle flap hurts him; that news also broke after the poll concluded.  But if something like these numbers hold, Dewhurst is toast in the runoff.  Let's note this also.

The Republican nominee will face state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, who is unopposed in her primary. Van de Putte lagged behind each of the four Republicans in hypothetical general election matchups, trailing Dewhurst 44 percent to 32 percent, Patrick 41 percent to 32 percent, Staples 41 percent to 29 percent, and Patterson 41 percent to 30 percent. Undecided voters made up the difference in each race.

That seems like a sensible set of figures for late February, too.  The only other result that so much as raises my eyebrow is Tea Party queen Debra Medina laying waste to the well-funded men in the R comptroller race.

There's going to be some crying at Glenn Hegar's watch party on Election Night.  Hope he doesn't feel the urge to have to shoot anything.

Update: Socratic Gadfly with more on what this might mean for the Green Party Senate candidate, who also needs some free media but isn't well-positioned to take advantage of the publicity.  And Charles breaks things down as well.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance thinks Ted Nugent is an appropriate spokesman for the modern Republican Party of Texas as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff analyzes the turnout issue for Democrats in 2014.

WCNews at Eye on Williamson on the Round Rock members of the Lege reporting to the local business lobby, while leaving out the issues that matter most to the people in their districts, in Schwertner, Gonzales, & Dale Go To The Chamber.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is appalled at Texas Republicans holding a faux hearing on women's health care. Give it up. Republicans have waged a real war against women and their health care. You're not fooling anyone.

It's Ted Nugent's (Texas Republican) party, and we just have to live with it, noted the Texas Observer -- and excerpted by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs. But there were also problemas grandes para Dan Patrick last week.

Texpatriate endorses John Whitmire in the Democratic primary for State Senate District 15.

Neil at All People Have Value was prompted by a visit to Galveston to reflect that we can choose to view ourselves in life on the mainland, on an island or at sea. All People Have Value is part of NeilAquino.com.

========================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Robert Rivard argues that cities and counties are left trying to solve the problems caused by a generation of indifference from Texas' state leadership.

Lone Star Q provides video of Wendy Davis discussing her support of same sex marriage to the San Antonio Express-News editorial board.

Concerned Citizens warns about the animus hiding behind religious exemptions.

Better Texas explains why a higher minimum wage is good for Texans.

Grits for Breakfast highlights the modern equivalent to the Dallas Buyers Club.

Nonsequiteuse gets to the heart of the Nugent/Abbott affair.

Greg Wythe continues his in-depth look at how the voter ID law was enforced in the 2013 election in Harris County.

Burkablog celebrates what would have been Barbara Jordan's 78th birthday.

Chris Quintero witnessed and videotaped two Austin Police Department officers detain and arrest a female jogger for jaywalking and not immediately identifying herself (see here for more).

And Swamplot makes us all feel old by taking a look at the house from Reality Bites, 20 years later.

Big money D donors cross party lines to unseat SCOTX judges

Frankly, this is as fucked up as duopoly politics gets.  I will emphasize the names you should commit to memory.

When Democratic donor and Houston plaintiff's attorney John Eddie Williams recently moved into a $10 million, 24,000-square-foot River Oaks mansion, a group of Houston trial lawyers threw him a house-warming.

(Last week)'s gathering at Williams' home had a more ambitious agenda, however: raising campaign cash for a slate of Republican primary challengers to incumbent Texas Supreme Court justices, drawing largely on traditional Democratic donors.

Combined with an emailed appeal from Dallas Democratic trial lawyer Lisa Blue Baron for the same slate, Wednesday's event makes clear that Democratic trial lawyers are attempting to knock off conservative jurists on their own turf, the Republican primary.

The strategy is steeped in the tragicomic history of Texas's system of electing judges via partisan elections fueled by special-interest money from both ends of the political spectrum. In 1976, Texas voters mistakenly elevated Don Yarbrough to the Texas Supreme Court – apparently confusing his name with the legendary U.S. Sen. Ralph Yarborough. He ended up serving only one year of his term, spending the rest of it in prison for a murder-for-hire scheme.

Nonetheless, efforts in the Texas Legislature to reform Texas' easily manipulated system of judicial selection have been sabotaged for decades by both political parties.

Yeah, that's a big problem, but the bigger problem is the one nobody wants to acknowledge, and that is that there is too much money in our political system already.  And that is a problem almost nobody wants to talk about, much less do something about.

"A lot of money changes hands in the civil justice system, which is presided over by judges," (former TSC justice Tom Phillips) said. "People are going to be interested in how they (judges) get there."

Phillips' views are shared by Mark Lanier, a prominent Republican Houston plaintiff's lawyer working hand-in-hand with the Democratic lawyers to unseat the incumbents this year.

"I think the partisan election of judges is the worst possible way to choose judges. I am not a fan, but I've got a responsibility to play in the system," he said.

He's got a responsibility, but he obviously doesn't want to make any improvements in a system that benefits everybody.  Just a few others like him among the 1%.

Lanier was one of the official hosts of Williams' "housewarming," which benefited Balance PAC, a fund supporting challengers to three incumbents on the Texas Supreme Court: former Rep. Robert Talton, who is taking on Chief Justice Nathan Hecht; Dripping Springs lawyer Joe Pool Jr., who is facing Justice Jeff Brown; and 14th Court of Appeals Justice Sharon McCally, who is challenging Justice Phil Johnson.

"This is a broad coalition of Texans who believe the court has been taken over by multinational corporations," Balance PAC spokesman Eric Axel said. "The court has become afflicted with affluenza."

This is a narrow coalition of wealthy attorneys who are at least correct in that the SCOTX has gone full fascist.

Axel said 74 percent of jury verdicts granted to plaintiffs are overturned on appeal. "If you are a corporation, you know you can win on appeal," he said. "This court is against the average person."

Texans for Lawsuit Reform disagrees, as you might expect. I won't excerpt their response.

What sticks out like the sorest of thumbs is that Crazy M'F'n Bob Talton is their pick to unseat Nathan Hecht.  In what universe is Talton better than Hecht?  I'll tell you: a universe where there are only two colors, black and white.  No shades of grey.  There's no blue or red, just green (and not the healthy shade of green, either).  There's not even a left or right.

If you needed yet another example of why 50% of Texans are NOT registered to vote, and half of the people who are registered don't bother to vote, then here you go.  Once again, when people say, "my vote doesn't matter", or "they're all crooks", THIS IS WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT.

Meanwhile, the political consultants who grift from the money men and women are also working hard in their spare time to reinforce the status quo.  If Facebook isn't showing you that, then it's a discussion among Houston folks about how wonderful this article by Ed Kilgore is.

This is nothing more than a whole bunch of not getting it on purpose going on.  You want to see another group of people, much more mainstream, who appear to be completely confused about where their political interests lie?  Look at this.

But to concede one of their points -- and as Gadfly has observed -- the progressive alternative has a long ways to go yet to present itself as viable.  So then here we are... with about 3 of every 4 Texans refusing for a variety of reasons to participate in the electoral process, leaving us all represented by a few wealthy people who are slaves to the extremely wealthy.

I just don't see any way to change any of it in my lifetime, short of what's happened in the Arab Spring nations, and what's happening in the Ukraine, Venezuela, and Thailand at this very moment.  But as this cartoon demonstrates, that development is highly unlikely.

Sunday Funnies

Free rides

Charles has an extensive post about the birth of both Lyft and UberX this weekend in H-Town.  It's going to be a lousy time for cabbies trying to make a living for awhile.

I remain of the opinion that these services are just fine as long as they meet the established municipal code.  Mayor Parker agrees.

"There are some working girls that work the streets of Houston who say, 'We're legal because it is just a donation,' " Mayor Annise Parker said Wednesday. "I'm sorry, we will enforce our ordinances."

This is the same method, as we know, by which drug dealers build their clientele: give it away in the beginning, gradually charge more and more for it once people get hooked.  I am certain that neither of these two fine companies intended for these unsavory analogies to be applied to them, but hey, that's just how they roll.

Please keep in mind that when you consume a service, you generally get what you pay for.

Abbott/Nugent disaster enters fourth day

Here are this morning's headlines:

Rick Perry condemns Nugent's remarks; Ted Cruz doesn't agree with them but in some of his most artistic bullshit to date, finds a way to blame Obama for it.  Rand Paul, the voice of (something approaching) sanity among Republicans, Tweets that Nuge should apologize for the 'subhuman mongrel' comments.

Meanwhile, Abbott "flees" reporters.  (The CNN video of the fleeing appeared yesterday here.)

How is your weekend shaping up?

It's Ted Nugent's party, we just have to live with it

-- That's the headline at this Texas Observer piece written by Christopher Hooks, their new add.

Now, no one’s begrudging Nugent’s right to be an immoral, hateful asshole. Plenty of great artists are assholes. But you won’t see Woody Allen stumping for New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, and you won’t see R. Kelly posing with California’s Jerry Brown. It’s amazing that so many Texas GOPers are willing to bear-hug Nugent. We’re a long way from the party of William F. Buckley.

Abbott’s team more or less copped to employing Nugent cynically—a senior aide told CNN they were “only bringing on the gun rights activist to help spur voter turnout among the base.” (How much Abbott really needs to juice turnout for a primary in which he’s basically unopposed is unclear.) But using Nugent this way communicates to “the base” that he’s a serious figure and should be taken seriously—it makes the Nugent problem worse. Nugent’s getting more from this than Abbott is. And if you’re hoping for the Republican Party in Texas to straighten out and ditch the stranglehold of the fringe, that’s a crying shame.

The Abbott/Nugent brotherhood continued to bleed out yesterday after Nuge twisted on CNN in the wake of Wolf Blitzer's shout-out.  And then Ted bagged a CNN appearance at the last minute because Erin Burnett is as badass as the Viet Cong he got sick.  Hope it wasn't the runs.

On a more serious note, look at this moment where CNN reporter Ed Lavandera engages Abbott.  You can watch it with your sound turned off.  I gotta say, that is one cocky mofo in that wheelchair.  He isn't remotely interested in what anybody thinks, and that includes Paul Burka.

It reveals Abbott, at the very least, as someone who doesn't have acute political judgment. Nugent is political dynamite. He can blow sky high at a moments' notice. And if Abbott truly believes that he needs Nugent to establish his 2nd Amendment credentials, as if they were in any doubt, then Abbott must believe that his own record doesn't speak for itself. You can't have it both ways. The likely next governor of Texas should be better than that.

I think Republicans should be worried. This is exactly the kind of brashness and bravado that turns voters off -- in particular women voters -- and it may drive some Republican voters out of their party. In my opinion, at least, Abbott and the Republicans are a lot closer to the precipice than most Republicans realize. Yes, Texas is still a red state. But even in Texas, there are limits to what you can say. Ted Nugent put his mark on Greg Abbott. That mark is going to be indelible.

Yeah well, we'll have to wait and see about that, Paul.  There are all kinds of Republicans, not just in Texas, that want to stay close to this shitstain with legs and brandishing a semiautomatic weapon.  The stench may linger into a third day if Dave Carney (Abbott's handler) can't get the muzzle on Nuge.

-- Extending the bad week for the TXGOP: Problemas grandes para Dan Patrick.  Another great headline, may I say, even if it comes from Breitbart Texas.

In a Dallas Morning News report, Miguel “Mike” Andrade, 48, of Missouri City, told (the newspaper) and Houston’s KTRK-TV that he, his cousin and two other men from Mexico worked at one of Patrick’s five sports bars that operated in the Houston area until 1986.

At that time, there were no penalties involved in hiring someone in this residing in the U.S. illegally according to the report.

Patrick's most serious headache here is that he was once hospitable to an immigrant, which is totally unacceptable in a Republican primary.

“He said Patrick was a compassionate employer. He said Patrick offered sympathy over their anguish at living so far from their loved ones and being constantly in fear of being deported.

“He was real, real, real kind with us … real good with the Hispanic community. He was really wishing (he had) some kind of power…to help us to work in this country and have a better life,” said Andrade, who recalled that he was hired at the West Houston sports bar in 1983 or 1984.

In fact Patrick was so kind that he made Andrade an unusual offer, so unusual that Andrade was instantly suspicious.

“He said (is there) anything I can do so you can go and see your mom (in Mexico)? I don’t want to see you suffer,” Andrade said.

Patrick then said, “I can go and bring you to here,” according to Andrade, who said he believed that meant Patrick could drive him to Houston past U.S. inland border checkpoints.

Andrade said he declined to make the trip, for fear he'd be caught and Patrick would get in trouble.

I believe that allegation qualifies Dan Patrick as a coyote.  Oy vey.

Have you cast your ballot yet, conservatives?  Are we experiencing any debilitating cognitive dissonance?  If so, you'll get a second chance to make it right in about two months, and if you're really feeling queasy about now, just hang on until November.  Nobody is yet convinced that this strain of stomach flu will last all the way into the fall.

Pants Crappers for Greg Abbott

-- There's not much for me to add after yesterday's media meltdown over Greg Abbott and his "blood brother", the child predator.  If the Abbott campaign can't fully comprehend what a fantabulous pooch-screwing they performed yesterday... well, I'm not going to remind them.  Let's move on.

-- I almost made this its own post: Texas Libertarian Candidate for Statewide Judicial Race Outpolls Democrat in Texas Bar Poll...

On February 14, the Texas Bar Association released a poll of its members, for the 2014 statewide partisan judicial races. Over one-eighth of all bar members participated in the poll. See this story, which has a link to the results.

For Court of Criminal Appeals, place 3, the Libertarian, Mark W. Bennett, outpolled the Democratic candidate, John Granberg. Bennett is well-known in Texas, partly because of his blog “Defending People”. He is a Houston criminal defense lawyer, who was also a Libertarian nominee in 2012 for a statewide judicial race. In his 2012 race, in which his only opponent was a Republican, Bennett polled 22.1% of the vote. His 2012 vote total, 1,331,364, was the highest number of votes ever received by any Libertarian nominee for any office.

The full results for the 2014 poll for Criminal Appeals, place 3, are: Republican Bert Richardson 2,166; Republican Barbara Walther 2,115; Bennett 2,083; Democrat John Granberg 1,802.

Libertarians and Greens also did well in the poll in some other judicial races. For Criminal Appeals, place 4, a race with no Democrat, the Libertarian, Quanah Parker, received 23.39% and the Green, Judith Mills Sanders-Castro, got 16.06%. For Criminal Appeals, place 9, another race with no Democrat, the Libertarian, William Bryan Strange III, got 23.02% and the Green, George Joseph Altgelt, got 19.42%. In the race for Supreme Court, place 7, a race with a Democrat and a Republican, the Libertarian, Don Fulton, got 13.10% and the Green, Charles Edwin Waterbury, got 5.78%.

Repeat after me: no straight-ticket voting in 2014.

-- Egberto Willies, one of the real shining stars in H-Town's blogosphere, shares the insights of Houston Latino activist Ivan Sanchez, which is worth about a thousand times more than everything Marc Campos has ever said and done combined.  There's too much good stuff there for an excerpt to do justice, but here's a place to start before you go read the whole thing.

In 2014, we Hispanics: Mexicans, Colombians, Cubans, Ecuadoreans, Argentineans, Bolivians, Salvadorians, Peruvians, and every other Latino Country – make up 44% of Houston’s population. However, the countries we come from divide our united voice as each Latino from each country separates themselves into multiple segregated groups, therefore forming smaller separate percentages. Our cultures, soccer fanaticism, pride and other variables are separating and diminishing our united voice in the United States. Hispanics need to realize that no matter where we come from, here in the US, we all pledge to one flag. There is nothing wrong with preserving the culture, but we need to understand that we as individuals are nothing without each other. And as Houston is a melting pot of all ethnicities, I only hope all Hispanics melt together as well. My family already did.

-- Ten more reasons (nobody should need any more, but here you go anyway) why the Keystone XL pipeline needs to die (again). Number one:

1. There are no jobs on a dead planet.

-- Some people say that the end is near for Mucous.

Michael Quinn Sullivan, the political warlord who’s striven to purify and shape the Texas Republican Party in line with his particular vision, has managed to outfox a number of threats to his would-be empire in the last couple years. But increased scrutiny from the Texas Ethics Commission over charges of impropriety and the question of so-called “dark money,” the fuel that powers Sullivan’s political activity, presents the possibility that the state political Establishment he’s always railed against, and by extension state government itself, has finally found a way to weaken him.

Meh.  He's already lined up an afterlife at Breitbart Texas.

-- Mark Morford, on how to eat an Internet troll.  Short answer: Don't feed them; let them consume themselves.

Here’s something you surely already suspected but which is nevertheless sort of nice to have validated by science:

Internet trolls? Those nasty, scabrous, hate-spitting folk who spend their sunlight-deprived days taunting, baiting and venomizing all over the Interweb’s anonymous comments sections in response to, well, just about about any article, column, video, photo gallery, product review or heartfelt tale of love and woe from the here to Gawker to Amazon, Car & Driver to Knitter’s World to the NYT, including but certainly not limited to the very Slate article which discusses the general cruelty and stupidity of trolls itself?

Turns out they really are awful people. Sociopathic, sadistic, narcissistic, cruel by nature, highly unpleasant to be around. They love to cause pain. They delight in ruining the beautiful. The more pure and integrity-filled something is, the more they enjoy corrupting it. So says a new psychology study. Also, they’re antisocial. Poor dressers. Ungainly. Hairy in all the wrong places. Smell like soggy asparagus and old toenails. I’m just guessing.

I actually do spend too much time watching these trainwrecks, and it's probably not good for my mental health.  So I am going to cut back a little on that.  After all, there are people who might mistake me for a troll, and I wouldn't want that...

Stockman: 5 polls show Cornyn being pushed into runoff

The alternative news outlet JP Updates:

In the latest poll out of Texas by Human Events-Gravis Marketing, there’s some trouble for current Senator John Cornyn who is running for re-election.

When asked “if the election were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?” Cornyn holds a 15-point lead, 43% to 28% Stockman, while 29% of the voters are still undecided.

“Congressman Stockman is much closer than expected,” Douglas Kaplan of Gravis Marketing said. “Cornyn is under 50% with a significant amount still undecided, which is dangerous territory for an incumbent. The poll was conducted before Cornyn’s recent cloture vote on raising the debt limit, which could hurt him among conservative primary voters.”

When asked if they approve of Rep. Stockman, 55% said they’re unsure while 28% approved and 18% disapproved. When asked the same about Sen. John Cornyn 49% said they approve, 26% disapprove and 24% were unsure.

The poll was conducted between 2/10/14 and 2/12/14, 729 likely Republican voters participated in the phone survey. The poll has a margin of error 3.6%.

Stockman is crowing about this, and heaps on some additional derision for the incumbent.

This is the fifth independent poll published in Cornyn’s race.  All five show Cornyn failing to win over 50 percent.  Cornyn has refused to release his internal polling results and has begun directly attacking Stockman, which usually indicates a candidate is in trouble.

A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll conducted between Oct. 18 and Oct. 27, 2013 found Cornyn with only 39 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, far below where a two-term incumbent and member of Senate leadership should be.

An Oct. 26, 2013 Gravis poll showed Cornyn failing to win a majority in a two-way race against five different candidates.  It showed Cornyn getting only 41 percent against Stockman, whom many voters were not familiar with.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Nov. 1-4, 2013 found “49% [of Republican primary voters] say they would like their candidate next year to be someone more conservative, compared to only 33% who say they support Cornyn.”

PPP concluded “John Cornyn is in grave danger of losing a primary next year if a serious campaign is run against him. Cornyn’s approval with Republican primary voters is only 46%, with 33% of voters disapproving of him.”

Even a poll by WPA Opinion Research conducted Dec. 10-12, 2013, and touted by Cornyn himself, showed Cornyn only at 50 percent among likely Republican primary voters. At the time of the poll many voters were not aware Cornyn had an opponent.

I don't have any idea how much stock to place in this data.  Primary polling is even less reliable than it is ahead of general elections, and this latest one is an ultraconservative source with an agenda.  Let's just mark it down as a data point worthy of some chat for now.  I find it more interesting that Cornyn's other Tea Pee challenger, Dwayne Stovall, appears to be finding some traction, especially with a video ad you can see here, which earned him the coveted Big Jolly endorsement.

If the conventional wisdom here is this far removed from the battle on the GOP ground, and one of these two morons forces Cornyn into a May runoff, I can certainly believe that Big John will be too politically wounded to hold on.  At this point I still don't see it, but stranger things have happened.

If you are still reading, then you can click over to view the results of a Central Texas Republican Assembly (sounds Communist to me) straw poll from almost two months ago that has Stockman ahead of Cornyn 45-41, with Stovall and four others registering no support whatsoever.  This is why you can't pay too much attention to these things so early... and why paying anything but marginal attention to them is like nailing a rack of ribs to a tree to lure Bigfoot.

Update: Juanita Jean is encouraged.  And on some level, I am a little surprised that this guy isn't ahead of Cornyn.  Maybe he should have run for governor, or lieutenant governor, or...