Friday, October 23, 2020

Friday Lone Star Leftist Round-up (updates)


Republican consultants in red counties are scared, scared.


Today's the last day to request a mail ballot.  Be sure to follow the instructions carefully, and don't let an uncareful signature cause its disqualification.


In yesterday's latest legal development:


This came as extraordinarily good news, particularly following the SCOTUS' rejection of a similar case from Alabama earlier in the week (which might portend Ken Paxton's next move).

Speaking of:


The latest Q poll shows a familiar photograph of Texas at the top of our ballots, with less than two weeks left: a toss-up between Trump and Biden, and a slight edge to Cornyn over Hegar.


Despite Trump canceling TV airtime and sharply reducing his Facebook advertising expenditures in the Lone Star State (according to the WhoWhatWhy), Beto O'Rourke and Julian Castro are fuming that Biden is neglecting us.  Downballot, blue prospects were looking brighter even before Trump cashed out (as posted here Monday).


Harvey Kronberg at Quorum Report eagerly awaits a contest for statehouse speaker.


Update:


Congressional races, likewise, have received close scrutiny as the polls are tight, the campaign funds flow in and out like the tides, and excitement -- or trepidation, as the case may be -- builds.


Texas Monthly has profiled several US House elections at their "Battleground Texas" page.  David Collins, the Texas Green on your ballot for US Senate, revealed his answers to one of the more detailed candidate questionnaires he's received.

Trump and Biden's final face-off had a greater-than-anticipated focus on climate, and Texas wound up in the spotlight ... which wasn't necessarily good news.


Trump also criticized Biden for opposing fracking. Biden denied taking such a position. He did oppose fracking in the Democratic primary, but his campaign staffers walked back those comments, saying he only opposed fracking on on federal land.

Moderator Kristen Welker of NBC also pressed Trump on Texans living near refineries who fear pollution is making them sick.

“The families that we’re talking about are employed heavily, and they’re making a lot of money, more money than they’ve ever made,” Trump said. “If you look at the kind of numbers that we’ve produced for Hispanic, for Blacks, for Asians, it’s nine times greater the percentage gained than it was under, in three years, than it was under eight years the two of them, to put it nicely. Nine times more.”

But Biden said that workers’ health should be a priority.

“The fact is, those front-line communities, it doesn’t matter what you’re paying them, it matters how you keep them safe,” Biden said.

At one point, Trump directly asked Biden whether the former vice president would “close down” the oil industry.

“I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” Biden said.

Trump called that a “big statement” and Biden call the oil industry a significant environmental polluter. He also said he wouldn’t support giving that industry federal subsidies.

“It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time. Over time,” Biden said.

Trump said that “in terms of business,” that was “the biggest statement.”

“Basically what he’s saying is he’s going to destroy the oil industry,” Trump said. “Will you remember that Texas? Will you remember that Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Ohio?”



Update:

-- "Joe Biden's fossil fuel remarks at last debate put Texas Democrats on the defensive, even as recent poll shows Trump falling behind"

And while (US Rep. Colin) Allred and (US Senate challenger MJ) Hegar defended Biden, one Democrat in the state has already broken with the candidate.

Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher, who's running for reelection in Houston, said the former vice president failed to "address the complexity of our energy needs and plan for the future."

*facepalm*

Here's a few more ecology stories unrelated to last night's debate.  First, Environment Texas writes about the "forever" chemicals in McDonald's food packaging.

PFAS is a dirty word, as one Texas airport executive recently told me.  Perhaps more than a dirty word, since even the FDA has acknowledged that there is scientific evidence that it causes serious health conditions. These so called Forever Chemicals are proven to be linked to cancer, liver damage, thyroid disease and development issues in wildlife and humans. 

So a few weeks ago, I asked McDonalds if they’d banned PFAS from their food packaging. Their customer contact center replied that they had eliminated 2 PFAS—out of the nearly 5,000 PFAS out there. Sigh! 

To be fair they also mandate, I quote, that their suppliers not use any perfluoroalkyl or polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).  How do they enforce this?  It remains to be seen.


An investigation by the TCEQ in response to an Austin neighborhood's complaints turned up some really foul air and water issues.  And a new report indicates that the state's unauthorized air pollution has more than doubled from 2015 to 2019.

There'll be coronavirus surge updates as well as criminal and social justice posts in next Monday's Wrangle.  Here's a couple of those items that intersect with Texas public education.

Emily McCullar points out that a history textbook published in 2016 is woefully inadequate in telling the stories of Black and Latino/a Texans.


There will be a wake this afternoon, funeral services tomorrow, and a GOTV rally on Sunday to honor the life of nationally acclaimed Houston trans-activist Monica Roberts.


Cordelia Casso Flores wrote a touching eulogy for her sister, Mapy Casso Uranga, at LareDOS.

She hosted “The Mapy Casso Show” for KGNS and later worked as assistant society editor for The Laredo Times. She and (her husband) Nacho met at the newspaper, when he came from El Paso to become the editor of the Spanish section of The Times.

Update: From Friday night ...


I'd like to close with some postings about Sacha Baron Cohen's movie.  Not that one.


Judy Gumbo at YippieGirl blogged about her first-hand experience at the trial.  Nancy Kurshan for Counterpunch was also in the room where it happened.  Jonah Raskin at The Rag Blog wishes the film had been more historically accurate.  And on the theme of 'some things since the '60's haven't changed a single bit', Pages of Victory shares a few political cartoons.

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Thursday, October 22, 2020

And Iran


I ran so far away ...
I couldn't get away


As Dave Thompson has pointed out, the song was "punningly political at a time when Iran itself was making headlines around the clock".[12] The song and the band were an "irresistible" package for American audiences, and by the summer of 1982, "America was clutching Flock of Seagulls to its heart".
 
[...]

The song's apparent references to Iran were highlighted again in the fall of 2007, when the long-running American television show Saturday Night Live ran a parody version of the song that expressly mocked current Iranian policies like Holocaust denial.[17]

(So expect to see many more blogs making this pun; I'm just riding the New Wave.)

The actual point here is that you have a new boogeyman underneath your bed: beware of mullahs in your inbox, in your text messages, or -- Inshalla! -- having voted in your name before you could.

And Iranian bots on social media!  Cornell University has a paper from 2018 on it, specifically regarding Twitter and the effect on the Arab Spring.

Why, it's enough to make a Persian crap his kandys (sorry).
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Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Election 2020 Update: No Debate, No Message


Even with muted microphones to reduce interruptions, your Thursday evening is best spent on something else.  Why -- especially if you have already voted, certainly if your mind is made up -- would you watch Act II of this shitshow?

Do you need more stress in your life?  Is the current amount of drama and tension simply not enough?  Are you addicted to the anger instigated within you by Trump's repetitive displays of malignant narcissism and megalomania?  Do you cringe every time Biden opens his mouth, hoping he won't say something nonsensical, or stupid, or sexist, or racist?  Are you still functioning under the delusion that one of these two Alzheimer's-riddled rapists will actually do something for you, your family, your healthcare, the planet?


You're not Sam Goldwyn (or Western Union, for that matter).

Elect Biden and then push him left, you say?  Lots of very prominent leftists -- people I have respect and admiration for -- are recommending that route: Bernie Sanders, of course; Cornel West, Noam Chomsky, AOC, Angela Davis, John Cusack, and a number of fairly prominent DSA members.

I feel pity for them for having given in to fear and loathing.


For those in the 'Giant Meteor 2020' Caucus:


"Okay, PDid.  How about a little less snark and a little more logic, please?"


Sorry.  That little snarky cartoon just slipped out.

I'm in complete agreement with those who believe that the Republican Party as currently composed must suffer a stinging rebuke at the polls.  They all must be denied access to the levers of power for a period of time long enough to modulate themselves into something more reasonable.


So since old Joe has this one in the bag ... maybe consider voting for something you want, and not against something you don't.  Vote in favor of someone, not against someone else.  Most importantly, vote the policies you would like to see enacted, and not just the identity/gender/color/religion, or the sassy debate responses, of the person.  'Not Trump' is not a policy.


If you must watch a debate Thursday, watch this one.


There's a better presidential debate on Saturday night.

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Monday, October 19, 2020

The Election 2020 Wrangle from Far Left Texas


I'm throwing in some centrist viewpoints for balance.


TXElects has a great deal of analysis based on their internal models and posted outside its paywall. Excerpting liberally:

Trump is currently projected to win the state by 2 points over Biden, 50.5%-48.5%. He carried the state by 9 points, 52%-43%, in 2016. The projected 2020 margin is slightly tighter than Ted Cruz’s 50.9%-48.3% victory over then-U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) in 2018.

A total of 20 races’ ratings moved one column toward the Democrats:

  • President to Toss Up from Lean Republican
  • CD2 (Crenshaw) to Toss Up from Lean Republican
  • CD3 (Taylor) to Toss Up from Lean Republican
  • CD31 (Carter) to Toss Up from Lean Republican
  • HD64 (Stucky) to Toss Up from Lean Republican
  • HD92 open to Toss Up from Lean Republican
  • HD93 (Krause) to Toss Up from Lean Republican
  • HD121 (Allison) to Toss Up from Lean Republican
  • HD66 (Shaheen) to Lean Democratic from Toss Up
  • HD67 (Leach) to Lean Democratic from Toss Up
  • HD112 (Button) to Lean Democratic from Toss Up
  • HD45 (Zwiener) to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
  • HD47 (Goodwin) to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
  • HD52 (Talarico) to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
  • HD102 (Ramos) to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
  • HD113 (Bowers) to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic
  • HD129 (Paul) to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
  • HD150 (Swanson) to Lean Republican from Likely Republican
  • HD33 (Holland) to Likely Republican from Safe Republican; and
  • HD91 (Klick) to Likely Republican from Safe Republican.

The U.S. Senate inches closer to the Toss Up line but remains rated as Lean Republican along with the other statewide races.

The nine Republican-held House seats projected to flip to the Democrats are HD26 open (Miller), HD64, HD66, HD67, HD96 open (Zedler), HD108 (Meyer), HD112, HD134 (S. Davis) and HD138 open (Bohac). The four within a point of flipping are HD92 open, HD93, HD94 (Tinderholt) and HD121. The Senate seat projected to flip to the Democrats is SD19 (Flores).

The four Congressional seats projected to flip to the Democrats are CD10 (McCaul), CD21 (Roy), CD22 open (Olson), CD23 open (Hurd) and CD24 open (Marchant). The three additional seats within 1.2 points of flipping are CD2, CD3 and CD31.

Read on there, and don't miss "Echoes of 2010" at the end.  My personal O of Jeff Blaylock's news and views is that his bias leans toward establishment conservatism, but he is very fair and accurate.  A less partisan Joe Straus Republican, as I might best classify.  Or the reverse of Mustafa Tameez, if that helps.  So this is a very rose-colored snapshot for Texas Democrats coming from him, and very much in line with my own prognostications.  For you data nerds, Derek Ryan has his pie charts and bar graphs posted (.pdf) for last week's partisan and demgraphic EV analysis.

Turnout remained wowza through the weekend, which is where all this optimism is coming from, and if it holds, it's going to be a big blue wipeout for Team Elephant.


All of the state's counties are blowing the roof off, but Harris County ...


Guess who's complaining about long lines at their EV polling places?


Another guess what: Harris County's boffo vote turnout may STILL not be enough to get it done for Joe Biden and MJ Hegar (as both TXElects and I have already said).


So for all you Democrats still hoping for a clean sweep, it's time for you to get on your phones and text/call/email/browbeat/cajole/guilt your registered voter friends and family.


As of 7pm on Sunday October 18, 2020, according to GitHub’s U.S. Elections Project, only 3.8 million people in Texas have voted so far. 3,881,004, to be precise. This is no good. We have 16.9 million voters in Texas, so that means 13.1 of y’all still haven’t made it out.

According to the AP, thus far, Democrats have been outvoting Republicans 2:1, but that could change at any minute. We aren’t safe until every one casts their vote.

(What I like about Michelle is that she doesn't tear down the Green Party in relentlessly boosting the Blues.  She's definitely a VBNMW kinda person, but she focuses her considerable ire and wit in the right direction and not the left.  Her blog is must-reading for you Democrats in North Texas.)

John Cornyn keeps shitting his own bed, and I am here for it.


He doesn't dare debate Hegar again. He can't afford another beating.


Progressives and liberals: share the wealth!


And with lots more non-election/turnout-related posts and Tweets to come later in the week, I'll wrap this Wrangle here.

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