Sunday, April 12, 2020

Thursday, April 09, 2020

Withdrawals


-- Lincoln Chafee, from the Libertarian Party presidential primary.

(That wasn't the news you've been mourning/celebrating?)

When Hillary Clinton dropped out of the presidential race in 2008, she did so in an immaculately choreographed speech before of a mass of supporters at the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, where she boasted of putting “18 million cracks” in the political glass ceiling. When Bernie Sanders dropped out in 2016, he did so on the biggest of stages -- at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. But on Wednesday, the democratic socialist senator from Vermont ended his second and likely final campaign for president under far more demure circumstances: a 14-minute address to the nation via livestream, from an office in his hometown of Burlington, Vermont.

The announcement -- the day after a primary in Wisconsin that his campaign not only didn’t contest, but actively discouraged voters from participating in in-person due to the coronavirus pandemic -- came weeks after the race was effectively decided and long past the point when Sanders himself had begun to shift his focus from winning votes to making a point. The pandemic crystallized “what this campaign is about,” to use his favored turn of phrase, even as it made the campaign itself unfeasible.

Joe Biden, who is now the de facto Democratic nominee, had already announced his intention to skip the next debate and had begun discussing his vice presidential picks. Officially, the Democratic primary ended (yesterday). But it felt like it ended a long time ago.


-- And so ... on to the next.


SoO doesn't speak for me, sarcastically or seriously.  I doubt, in fact, that he speaks seriously for any Berner.  But you can decide for yourself.

Now, Matthew Walther at The Week ... he's a snarky bastard.

Barring some unforeseen accident or a top-secret Zoom convocation of party elders bent on replacing him with Andrew Cuomo, Biden is going to be the one to run against Donald Trump in November, regardless of whether thousands of minor functionaries end up assembling in Milwaukee for a week of pointless roll-call votes and binge drinking. The general election has already begun.

I do not think it is even a slight exaggeration to say that Biden is the weakest nominee fielded by a major political party in the modern history of this country.

[...]

(I)n addition to Biden's now-forgotten history of handsy behavior, the recent allegations of what we bloodlessly refer to as "sexual misconduct" (about which there has been media silence so ubiquitous it is all but conspiratorial), his seemingly unacceptable record on issues from foreign policy to race to health care, his undeniable cognitive decline, which becomes more pronounced every time he attempts to communicate, he is a victim of circumstances. Biden is totally irrelevant to the news cycle and will remain so for weeks and perhaps even months to come in a way that no candidate has been since the emergence of the primary system. There will be no travel, no speeches, no closed-door fundraisers with mega-donors, no campaign headquarters or extensive meetings with potential running mates or cabinet members. His campaign is an idea, something that exists on Wikipedia and occasionally on CNN when there is no breaking pandemic-related news, not something that demands the attention of every living American.

In my last WH Update, I mentioned that Joementia is in a hole financially, has a significant enthusiasm gap, and is unlikely to unite the party's left, center, and right wings.

So, putting my betting cap back on, I will agree with Yglesias at Vox that Biden's general election strategy -- as prepared by Ron Klain, that mastermind of Algore's 2000 campaign -- is to mumble "NotMeUs" and mutter 'FUnastyBerniebros' out of the other side of his mealy mouth.

Rather than spend time on a likely fruitless effort to court the left, Biden might want to accept that he’s going to take a lot of crap from the Berniesphere no matter what he does and just lean into his moderate brand. If he does, the left is sure to howl that he’s betraying progressive values -- just as they predicted.

But realistically, he’s going to be seen as a likely betrayer no matter what he does, simply because a certain quarter of the left sees the Democratic Party establishment as a constant source of betrayal and there’s no way for Biden to get away from the reality that he is a lifelong, dyed-in-the-wool member of the establishment.

Matt knows us well, but he hasn't been looking at the polling.

Most Sanders supporters are inclined to back Biden in November, but the former vice president will have some work to do to solidify those figures. The latest Morning Consult poll tracking the Democratic race, conducted March 30-April 5, found 80 percent of Democratic primary voters who said Sanders was their first-choice candidate would vote for Biden in a head-to-head matchup against Trump, while 7 percent said they would defect and back the incumbent Republican. The gap is bigger than among Democratic voters as a whole, but is less than the 12 percent of Sanders supporters estimated to have done so in 2016.

But Yglesias says us defectors are only worth half what a GOP convert is.

The level of defections to third-party candidates, by contrast, really does change a lot from year to year and could make a big difference in November. But every voter on the margin between Democrats and Republicans is worth twice as much as every voter on the margin between Democrats and the Green Party.

So it really doesn't matter what we do, right?  We'll get all the blame, just like in 2016, when Joe is defeated by Trump, but if he should pull off a stunner of an upset, the shitlibs will gloat about not having needed our votes anyway.  It's a lose-lose!

Homie don't play that game.  I won't be choosing between Jonald Bimp or Doe Truden.  I'm not voting for the lesser of two rapists, and the Supreme Court is 5-4 now -- with Biden directly responsible for Clarence Thomas -- so 6-3 without RBG or 7-2 (minus Breyer too)?  Go bitch to Chuck Schumer.


Your weak-ass Jedi mind tricks don't work on me.

-- So: Burn it Down, Cave In, or walk away i.e. #DemExit 2.0 ?  (Sam Husseini at Counterpunch also advocates for a VotePact strategy.)

Here are some options I'm considering:




Read more about the MPP at the end of David Collins' post here.  My good friend edgarblythe, who blogs at Pages of Victory, is assessing Mark Charles, who's been mentioned here several times.  I really like him as well, but do not know his ballot qualification status in Texas.


Cartoonist Ted Rall says let's go for a New Progressive Party.

Among socialist options, there's Gloria la Riva, Alyson Kennedy, Joseph Kishore, and Seattle council member Kshama Savant's baby, Socialist Alternative, which is not running a slate this cycle but building for the future.  Here's their explainer on the difference between them and DSA.



Like Charles, these candidates must petition for signatures in order to qualify on a party line or as a write-in, and the status of each at this time is not known to me, but I will be posting their updates as the news develops.

Tuesday, April 07, 2020

The TexProgBlog Wrangle, Extra Edition


So much wrangled we needed another pen.  The first one, yesterday, is here.

From Angela Valenzuela of the Ed Equity, Politics, and Policy in Texas blog:

Late breaking COVID update just now in the Austin American-Statesman. Not covered, however, are the South Texas counties getting hit by COVID.  According to the Corpus Christi Caller Times and The Monitor out of McAllen, the virus is impacting the following cities: Mercedes, Mission, La Joya, McAllen, Donna, Alamo, and San Juan -- that is, in Hidalgo and Cameron County.

In my West Texas hometown of San Angelo, as of two days ago, 20 have it while many others are getting tested.

And from her link to the AAS:

More than 1,153 people are being treated for COVID-19 in Texas hospitals, an increase of more than 300 people from Friday, Gov. Greg Abbott said at a press conference Monday.

[...]

His latest news conference comes after the coronavirus’s death toll in Texas surpassed 100 over the weekend, rising to 140 fatalities Monday, according to the latest data from the Department of State Health Services. The daily count is a 13-person jump from Sunday and a 50-person increase from Friday.

More than 85,000 COVID-19 tests have been given in Texas, a 20% increase from the day prior, according to Abbott. Less than 10% of those have tested positive for the virus, he added.

[...]

Abbott for the first time on Friday revealed the number of ventilators — a life-saving device for critically ill patients — available for use statewide: 8,741. By Monday, more than 6,000 ventilators were available, but Abbott said 7,350 anesthesia machines with ventilators “could be used if needed.”

In its daily count Monday afternoon, Department of State Health Services reported 702 fresh cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The state’s total of known cases is 6,812, an increase of 464 cases from the day prior.

Now, 157 out of 254 Texas counties are reporting cases of the coronavirus.

Harris County has 1,395 cases, the most of any county. Dallas County follows with 1,112, and Travis County comes in third with 418, according to agency data.

Much of the Trans-Pecos region of West Texas and lower parts of the Panhandle still have no known cases of the coronavirus, according to the department’s data.

Here is an interactive dashboard from the Department of State Health Services (very cool), and here's some mapsThe Texas Signal has a few charts.  And here's more on the effects of the contagion in the RGV.




Those who are concerned about the spread of the virus in immigrant detention facilities at the border -- and in Houston -- have plenty to be worried about.



With respect to the incarcerated population in Houston and surrounding ...


The emotional burden of outlawing women's reproductive freedom is exacting a painful toll.



Domestic violence cases have seen one of the largest increases on the police blotter.  And the overt rage toward Asian Texans worsens.


Those with the least always seem to be hit the hardest.


And the state flexes its authoritarian muscle at the Sabine.


Meanwhile, Zoombombing troubles the more fortunate.


And the undercounting of us all means we will pay some price -- likely a heavy one -- for the pathogen through the next decade.


So it's important to find some bright spots among all these dark clouds, and I have a few here that I hope will help.

This story, from LareDOS, about the missing history of the Revilla Rebels, and specifically the Gutierrez de Lara brothers, provides us what public school texts do not: a pre-1836 Texas history that upends the TXSBOE's Anglo Saxon-slanted Sam Houston/Stephen F. Austin narrative.

Environment Texas gives links to explore nature online.

Clay Robison at the TSTA Blog prefers to trust the experts over the blowhards.  In that vein, Better Texas Blog highlights the role of policy in fighting hunger during a crisis.

Shari Biediger at the Rivard Report notes the surge in sales of baby chicks as egg prices have risen.

And The Bloggess wants you to remember you are not alone.

Monday, April 06, 2020

The Weekly Wrangle, Cabin Fever Edition

We're three weeks through (what we all hope will be) a 6.5 week lockdown, and some members of the Texas Progressive Alliance have been feeling a little claustrophobic, while others are sewing their own masks in preparation for a supply run.

By contrast, some of us have adjusted just fine.


Here are some of the best blog posts, Tweets and left-centered news collected from around the Great State over the past week.

The COVID-19 global pandemic is impacting our lives in many ways, and that was the focus of everyone's thoughts and reporting this past week.


Our good guvnah remains above the fray, keeping his social distance from us, fiddling while Texans in (Carthage, London, Athens, Paris, Florence, Geneva, Dublin ...) Roma and Rhome burn.



Federal funding from the recently passed legislation is on the way.


But the state's economic woes will last for a long time.


Among the many industries suffering through the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus, Lone Star print media is taking it on the chin.


“We’re f—— trying to keep the ship afloat in the apocalypse,” said Tim Rogers, the editor of D Magazine, which laid off fifteen employees last week, including editors, designers, sales people, and administrators; all remaining employees are taking salary cuts. Its freelance budget has been eliminated. San Antonio’s long-running alternative newspaper, the Current, laid off ten people and cut everyone else’s salaries. The Houston Press, which became a digital-only operation in 2017, instituted another round of pay cuts and slashed its freelance budget in half. Although it has so far avoided layoffs, the Austin Chronicle has temporarily gone from a weekly print publication to an every-other-week schedule. It has also reduced staff hours by ten to thirty hours per week. Southwest Magazine, the beloved in-flight magazine of Southwest Airlines, has closed for good.

Texas dailies are also feeling the pain. On March 30, national newspaper chain Gannett, which owns the Austin American-Statesman, announced company-wide furloughs and pay cuts. Newsroom employees making more than $38,000 a year will be required to take one week of unpaid leave each month in April, May, and June.

SocraticGadfly mourned another casualty of the pathogen, possibly fatal -- Texas icon Half Price Books -- and wondered if it can survive as even a shell while reminiscing about many years of shopping there.

But some businesses are adjusting quickly.


And the state's colleges and universities are helping, too.


To date the most severe rate of infections have occurred in Texas nursing homes.



And the ripple effects to our elections are being felt.


Texas has one of the most restrictive absentee ballot laws in the country. Even under ordinary circumstances, this means many Texans will have a tougher time casting a ballot than voters in most other states.

During a pandemic that could prevent millions of voters from venturing to the polls, however, Texas’s law could wind up disenfranchising much of the state.

The law only allows Texas voters to obtain an absentee ballot under a very limited list of circumstances. Voters may obtain an absentee ballot if they plan to be absent from their home county on Election Day, if they have a “sickness or physical condition” that prevents them from voting in person, if they are over the age of 65, or if they are jailed.

It is far from clear that a healthy person who remains at home to avoid contracting coronavirus may obtain an absentee ballot.

Texas Democratic Party v. Hughs, a lawsuit filed by the state Democratic Party, seeks to fix this law — or, at least, to interpret the law in a way that will ensure healthy people can still vote. But the lawsuit potentially faces an uphill battle in a state court system dominated by conservative judges.

All nine members of the state Supreme Court are Republicans, and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a motion seeking to intervene in the lawsuit — a sign that he intends to resist efforts to prevent this law from disenfranchising voters.

The stakes in this case are astoundingly high. As Texas Democrats note in their complaint, voters are “now heavily discouraged” from even leaving their homes “by various government orders and are being discouraged in an enormous public education campaign.”

Even if the pandemic were to end by July 14, when the state plans to hold several runoff elections, “certain populations will feel the need and/or be required to continue social distancing.” Millions of voters could potentially be forced to choose between losing their right to vote and risking contracting a deadly disease.

Kuff looked at the potential for expanded vote by mail in November.


There'll be more on COVID-19 aftershocks in Part 2 of the Weekly Wrangle, coming later today or tomorrow morning.   Here's some news from the environmental circuit:





And even in the middle of a contagion pandemic, we need to keep an eye on the Gulf.


Scott Henson at Grits for Breakfast provides an update on his health (it's good news), and Keri Blakinger sends him a post for his blog collating criminal justice developments.

And I'll close this early edition of the Wrangle with some lighter fare.