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More on White and the battle for governor

Still digesting yesterday's news and reading the tea leaves and (insert your own favorite cliche'). For now I'll excerpt what I find and emphasize the most interesting. First, this HouChron story doesn't tell us much new beyond sandwiches served at Sunday afternoon's meeting between Tom Schieffer and Bill White.

Several sources close to White said the decision to switch races was made at the Sunday meeting with Schieffer and his adviser, Lyndon Olson, who was a Clinton administration ambassador to Sweden. Houston lawyer Scott Atlas also was at the meeting. White insisted he still is in the listening stage.

“Right now, people want folks who are competent and shoot straight, don't engage in cronyism and get things done,” he said. “I've had a lot of people bending my ear about what I ought to do next, and I ought to listen to them.”

More on Scott Atlas if you need to know it. Harvey Kronberg has more of the juicy grist (is that an oxymoron?) in this from QR:

In the words of Democratic advisor Harold Cook, “You better get your popcorn and go to the bathroom 'cuz you don’t want to miss a minute of this.” ...

In a first sort-through, the big damage may well be to Kay Bailey Hutchison. While we never expected big Democratic crossover vote into the Republican March primary, an effort to stop Farouk Shami and Kinky Friedman with an “A” team candidate becomes more important. (No disrespect to Hank Gilbert who has run a very active, issue oriented campaign)

An exciting Democratic primary cannot be good for the Republican gubernatorial challenger.

Harvey's spot on here. I'll go further, however: there's not a lot of difference between Hutchison and White once you take the party label off. Establishment, conservative, calm, even bland. The rumors you heard months ago about her funneling clues to him about her plans suggests that the two have something more than just shared Houston governmental policy interests. Before I digress ...

On the other hand, Governor Perry’s life just got a little more complicated. Even Hutchison supporters acknowledge that he has driven the narrative of the campaign and out-maneuvered his challenger at every turn. Hutchison went from twenty points (up) at the end of last year to 12 down in recent polls. Although the primary is still a hundred days away, the betting line has been consistently swinging toward the incumbent.

More on that from this anonymous blogging GOP consultant (via Kuffner)...

White seems to be the best shot at the governor’s mansion, and that’s trouble for Rick Perry’s campaign. Slipping by with 39% of the vote in 2006, Perry will fare poorly in a head-to-head with White. Moderates in Houston will mostly back White, who is widely popular there. The trick for White will be spreading the Houston support throughout the rest of the state.

On the R’s side, primary voters will be faced with a pretty clear choice: nominate a candidate (Perry) who will struggle to beat a widely popular Houston mayor, or a candidate (Hutchison) whose statewide popularity is unmatched in recent Texas political history. No matter what happens, Perry will have to shift to the center. He’s been driving hard right for a long time, though… it’s possible that he may never be able to win over moderates at this point.

Back to Harvey:

Bill White in the primary and the general undercuts one of the anchors upon which Team Perry has been counting. Private polling indicates that in a two-way with Hutchison, Perry will dominate in the greater Houston area, no doubt because of his high visibility and impressive performance during two hurricanes.

Only White can trump Perry’s long shadow in voter-rich Houston. More importantly, White is transitioning directly from mayor to gubernatorial candidate which means his name ID is still high and his fundraising should not be impaired.

Houston/Harris County/Houston-Galveston metro or whatever other title you want to give "Greater Houston" represents something on the order of 20% of the entire statewide Democratic vote tally; maybe a bit less for the GOP (they're stronger in suburban and rural Texas, naturally). A swing of millions of votes from the Republican to the Democrat at the top of the ticket lifts the other down-ballot boats. More on that from HK just down from here.

Now let's not be naïve. Perry already has the opposition research on White. Expect to hear about under-funded public pensions and who knows what else in Houston. But that is pretty far down the road. White has plenty of time to put the book together on Perry and Hutchison … and now he can go back to his contributor list and hit them up for five-figure donations rather than the paltry $2,300 limit for a federal race.

Probably more like six figures in White's case.

Perry still holds the statewide name ID and charisma advantage over White should he win the primary. Consultant Dave Carney, pollster Mike Baselice and media maestro David Weeks have plenty of practice at this statewide election stuff and they start with a candidate the camera loves. However, Perry is considered a more polarizing figure (whose) strengths work best in a primary rather than a general election.

It’s no secret that some Republican House members worry that (Perry leading a) November ticket against a strong Democrat could well cost the GOP more seats going into a redistricting year. ...

And there's the most valuable bit: with all of this media attention on White, postponing a decision for the next two weeks spreads the fire wider. Everybody (D & R) who has thought about running for something in 2010 has to assess what it means for their prospects. In state Senate and House districts, in the courthouses (especially in Harris County) and at the statewide level, thousands of aspiring politicos woke up early this morning and are Twittering and texting even as I type this.

With White in the race, it may also become easier to flesh out the rest of the ticket. Eliott Shapleigh had been rumored to consider a statewide race, but perhaps Lt. Governor might be more enticing. Although we are only teasing a long shot, a spot on the Legislative Redistricting Board in 2011 would give him some serious leverage with his former colleagues should he somehow find himself as the presiding officer.

Kirk Watson may be reconsidering a statewide run, but his public reaction gave no clue. Barbara Radnofsky has been toiling the field in a quest for AG for over a year.

Sure, Kinky Friedman is running for Guv and Marc Katz says he is running for Lite Guv. But frankly, that is just another way of saying one is selling baloney and the other is selling pastrami.

Top-shelf New York Deli stuff, Harvey.

Republicans still have the incumbency advantage and are more battle-tested. And although Texas is still a center-right state, demographics are changing and Texas could turn purple sooner than anyone expects.

Meanwhile, the entire field in the greater Harris County area just got shook up. Republican-targeted Democrat Kristi Thibaut is in a little more secure position today than she was yesterday. Similarly, Democrat-targeted Republicans Dwayne Bohac and Ken Legler are on shakier ground than they were just a few hours ago.

Thibaut, Valinda Bolton, Joe Heflin, Diana Maldonado, and those other Texas House Democrats elected two years and four years ago that closed in on the majority are likely feeling very encouraged. Bohac, Legler, turncoat Chuck Hobson and half a dozen other Republicans across the state ought to be very concerned. TeaBagger mania just can't stay stoked all the way to next November; the fury is already waning and the Republicans will fragment into a back-biting morass by this time next year.

Finally, this from Bradley Olson about White and how he speaks to the evangelicals:

Accepting a plaque from the U.S. Pastor Council, a group of largely conservative Houston-area ministers whose executive director recently discussed plans to persuade voters not to choose City Controller Annise Parker because of her sexual orientation, White repeatedly emphasized tolerance and love and the separation of church and state.

Although the mayor has publicly stated that he hopes the race will not devolve into attacks dealing with race or sexual orientation, he did not mention the mayor's race at all in his remarks, although the subtext was there in almost every sentence.

White, who has proudly touted his Sunday-School-teacher bona fides even in the most unusual situations (a fact not lost on the pastor group, members of which heaped praise upon him), cited numerous references of scripture in urging those present not "to judge" as they jump into the political sphere.

Just as Jesus urged followers in the Sermon on the Mount (see Matthew 6) not to "pray in public to be seen," so too should faithful Christians avoid judging others and expressing their own "public righteousness," White said.

How many Republican votes all across Texas do you think that's worth?

White "considering"

Fresh from KHOU at White's press conference about two hours ago.

Houston Mayor Bill White says he is considering dropping out of the race for U.S. Senate and instead making a bid for the Governor's office, he said in a news conference Monday.

"Since Friday a week ago, Texans from all backgrounds have asked me to consider running for Governor of Texas," White said. "I agree to consider running for that office and will make a decision by Friday, December 4."

Now in the next paragraph it seems to be clear that this is more than a mere consideration.

White said he believes he could beat Perry in a head-to-head match up next fall, reminding reporters that the Governor won re-election with 39 percent of the vote in 2006. "I'm disappointed in Governor Perry's failure to make tangible progress in addressing the dropout race, fighting polluters, and I could go on and on," he said. "If I don't step up and do this, Texas faces several more years of highly-charged wedge politics and a lack of leadership, and Texas cannot afford that."

And about that meeting in Dallas with Boyd Richie and the other candidates ...

Texas Democratic Party leaders have been hastily arranging a new slate of candidates for the November, 2010 election, assuming White makes a run for the top of the ticket. Other Democratic candidates for Governor are reportedly meeting with party leadership at a meeting in Dallas this afternoon. According to 11News partner WFAA-TV in Dallas, TDP leadership said it will not back any specific candidate for governor in the primary, and other candidates remain in the race.

Jason Embry is a little more conspiratorial ...

A source inside one of the Democratic gubernatorial campaigns says that state party chairman Boyd Richie called a summit of the Democratic governor candidates (and candidates only) for 2:30 p.m. today at a Dallas law firm. The stated purpose early this month was to talk out guidelines for how the party would be involved and to make sure everyone was going to be aboard to endorse the eventual nominee. But this source speculates that this is some kind of gambit for Richie to blow everyone’s minds with Bill White as the candidate in favor. Same source says every candidate is committed to coming.

Tom Schieffer, in withdrawing today, not only endorsed White but called for the other candidates to clear the field for him. Hank Gilbert and Farouk Shami quickly -- and Kinky Friedman a bit more slowly -- responded that they would all remain in the race. First, Gilbert's spokesperson Vince Liebowitz:

"The departure of Tom Schieffer and the possible entry of Bill White into the governor’s race doesn’t change anything for Hank’s campaign. We're going to continue to stay the course, and we welcome all comers into the governor's race. Hank remains the only candidate in the race who has proposed bold common sense policy initiatives, and has actually proven that he has new innovative ideas to move Texas forward into the 21st Century. It's not going to change our base of grassroots support, and I'm sure that the departure of Ambassador Schieffer from the race will likely bring some more people over to our side. We welcome Mayor White if he wants to get into the race, but it’s not going to change anything for us."

And Shami:

"I came to America with $71 in my pocket and founded a multi-billion dollar company that has created thousands of jobs for Texans. Even Rick Perry says I embody the American Dream. I got into this race to create jobs for Texans, and that's why I'm sticking in this race. Let's have a positive Democratic Primary dedicated to discussing how to create the most jobs for Texans, and no matter who's part of that discussion, Texas will be better off."

Lastly, Kinky's spokeswoman Rania Batrice in responding to Schieffer's departure ...

"Our campaign plan was never dictated by who was or wasn't in the race. Our strategy has been and will continue to be one of common sense and honesty. Returning power to the people is Kinky's top priority, and that includes education reform, justice reform, and insurance reform."

That's the wrap for today on the topic of the day.

Schieffer leaves Democratic field *update* And White joins

"He just couldn't put it together".

Word is that Democrat Tom Schieffer is quitting his bid for governor of Texas. Some Texas Democrats have never warmed to Schieffer because of his long-time ties to George W. Bush. Schieffer was a partner with Bush with the Texas Rangers. And as president, Bush appointed him ambassador of Australia and Japan. Schieffer's campaign has struggled winning money and support. It has scheduled a 3 p.m. news conference today. Ross Ramsey at Texas Tribune is reporting this morning that Schieffer will announce he's out and sources are confirming that's true. There's talk that Schieffer might consider switching to the lieutuenant governor's race, but no confirmation of that.

When our little Houston blogger confab had lunch with Tom back in August, I was impressed with him to a degree but skeptical, like many, of his close personal relationship with 43. Schieffer had collected many endorsements from Texas legislators, so those cards are back on the table.

Could Schieffer's exit herald another entry into the governor's race from the likes of Bill White or Ronnie Earle or Elliot Shapleigh? Time will tell.

Update: "Time", in this case, was something less than an hour ...

Fort Worth businessman Tom Schieffer is expected to drop out of the Texas governor's race later today, and Houston Mayor Bill White then will join the fray, according to a reliable source.

We now have a second reliable source telling us that White's switch to the governor's race will occur.

I was -- like White himself -- on record as saying this wasn't likely, so now we'll watch the speculation fly this afternoon, and in the days and weeks ahead.

Update II: From the TexTrib's updated story ...

Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie called a meeting of the gubernatorial candidates — no staff allowed — for this afternoon in Dallas. Speculation in the campaigns is that he's trying to clear the path for White, and perhaps to talk the candidates into other statewide races where no Democrats have declared. They've been told only that he wants to outline what the Democratic Party can do for them, to ask them not to cut each other up too badly in a primary, and to ask them to support the nominee, whomever that turns out to be.

Update III: Shapleigh endorses White.