The jockeying for political position in 2010 (and 09)

Texas Governor: The GOP primary between Incumbent Governor Mofo and Senator Perjury-is-a-Technicality is officially under way:

From the Wall Street bailout bill to helping the Gulf Coast recover from Hurricane Ike, it seems the federal government can do nothing right in the eyes of Gov. Rick Perry.

The latest shot came Tuesday, when Perry accused federal environmental protection officials of "actively working to do more economic harm" to the state through potential regulation of carbon emissions linked to climate change.

"Washington has Texas in its sights," he said.

Many political observers believe Perry's harsh rhetoric is designed to position the governor in his bid for an unprecedented, third four-year term in 2010. The target is his likely challenger in the Republican primary, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is more popular than Perry in some polls.

Hutchison in late September told her Senate colleagues that she wouldn't seek re-election to a leadership post and is planning to form an exploratory committee for the governor's race.

"I guess it's a pretty good shot to take on the federal government if you're running against someone who is an agent of the federal government," said Greg Thielemann, director of the Center for the Study of Texas Politics at the University of Texas at Dallas.

Let's not overlook Mayor Republican Lite.

Whatever plans (Bill White) declares, a perhaps more burning question still looms large over his intentions: Can he actually win statewide office?

Among the chattering classes in Austin and Houston, and even some White lieutenants at City Hall, no one is quite sure. But they do agree on at least one thing: Whether he runs to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison next year if she resigns to run for governor, or whether he seeks the state's top job himself in 2010, White may have an uphill battle ahead.

The chances for a Democratic governor in the next election "are more bleak than any Democrat honestly wants to admit," said Mark Sanders, a Republican consultant who ran Democrat Tony Sanchez's 2004 campaign against Gov. Rick Perry. "It's not going to happen in 2010. There are just too many factors working against that."

Chief among the challenges, according to Sanders and more than a dozen strategists from both parties, is a significant GOP advantage laid bare by the Nov. 4 election results, even in a contest that saw historic statewide turnout for Democrats. Political handicappers all over the state are still parsing reams of data, but many are putting the divide at between 8 and 10 percentage points, a daunting deficit in the near term. Some have even wondered whether 2014 would be a more optimal year.

"In a positive Democratic climate with a good candidate like White, you might bring that down to the mid-single digits," said Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University. "Whether you could bring it down to zero in 2010 — or in other words, win — is a tall order."

All of the above make me nauseous. SOS (as in "save our ship"). Won't a real Democrat consider running? I am NOT looking at you, Kinky Friedman.

Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Comptroller, Land Commisioner: SOS (as in same old shit). With the clash of the titans at the top, the Republican incumbents Dewhurst, Abbott, Combs, and Patterson are cockblocked. Nobody on the Democratic side seems willing to take on another uphill fight for the moment. Lots of rumors, though; Barbara Radnofsky for AG is a persistent one.

Agriculture Commissioner: Expect a rematch between Todd Staples and Hank Gilbert, the shining Democratic star for 2010.

Houston Mayor, 2009: Eugene Locke has apparently bumped Bill King out of the contest; Annise Parker will make the race, likely to do so as well is Peter Brown. Somebody mentioned the name of Roy Morales, the great GOP hope in a non-partisan affair. It is to laugh.

Political fortunes still to be determined: Rick Noriega, Nick Lampson, and a number of other Democrats who narrowly lost last month. Noriega and Lampson could lift their profiles with a stint in the Obama administration.

Whose names are you hearing bandied about?

Whither Speaker Craddick again

Charlie Kuffner has the numbers and Paul Burka has the gossip regarding Tom Craddick's tide seemingly going out again. Let's sample a bit from each; first Kuff:

I point all this out, apparently just as the arm-twisting efforts on Craddick's behalf are being ramped up, so that the next time you hear a Craddick acolyte, like Rep. Will Hartnett or Burnet County Republican Linda Rogers, president of Texas Republican county chairmen, claim that opposition to Craddick is all about "liberals", you ask them to explain those good, solid Republicans in Midland and the rest of HD82 who voted to oust him from the House. Maybe, just maybe, it's possible to be a Republican and to think Tom Craddick is bad for Texas, too.

And then Burka:

The problem for Craddick is that things have gotten to the point where every time he acts like, well, Craddick, he reminds GOP members why they wish he would just go away. Many members are still fuming about Craddick’s iron-fisted control of members’ races. Candidates had to come to Austin and appear before Christi Craddick, the speaker’s daughter; operative John Colyandro; and consultant Dave Carney. They were told what they had to do in their campaigns in order to get money that the speaker controlled. They had to bring their campaign plans and subject them to Christi Craddick’s scrutiny. She could overrule the members and insist on their using speaker-approved campaign materials that had already been prepared by consultants. Many members were furious; they felt that they knew their districts better than Carney, who is from New Hampshire, or Ms. Craddick. These hard feelings have not subsided. ...

I think Republicans in the House are finally beginning to realize the damage that Craddick has done to the GOP majority. Does it mean that the GOP rank and file will turn against him? The discontent with Craddick is far greater than I thought it was. But at the moment, it appears that fear still outweighs outrage.

I've seen this little melodrama before, and I suspect it's going to end the same way it did two years ago: with that weasel Aaron Pena escorting Craddick to the dais and introducing him as the Speaker of the Texas House. Phillip Martin has a compelling set of reasons for enthusiasm, but I'm going to remain "skeptimistic". Some of the members of the choir may change, but the song remains the same.

Show me otherwise, House Republicans. Prove yourselves capable of carrying a different tune.

I dare you.

Bush defends wiretapping Americans in federal court today

The Bush administration on Tuesday will try to convince a federal judge to let stand a law granting retroactive legal immunity to the nation's telecoms, which are accused of transmitting Americans' private communications to the National Security Agency without warrants.

At issue in the high-stakes showdown — set to begin at 10:00 a.m. PST — are the nearly four dozen lawsuits filed by civil liberties groups and class action attorneys against AT&T, Verizon, MCI, Sprint and other carriers who allegedly cooperated with the Bush administration's domestic surveillance program in the years following the Sept. 11 terror attacks. The lawsuits claim the cooperation violated federal wiretapping laws and the Constitution.

In July, as part of a wider domestic spying bill, Congress voted to kill the lawsuits and grant retroactive amnesty to any phone companies that helped with the surveillance; President-elect Barack Obama was among those who voted for the law in the Senate. On Tuesday, lawyers with the Electronic Frontier Foundation are set to urge the federal judge overseeing those lawsuits to reject immunity as unconstitutional. At stake, they say, is the very principle of the rule of law in America.

"I think it does set a very frightening precedent that it's okay for people to break the law because they can just have Congress bail them out later," says EFF legal director Cindy Cohn. "It's very troubling."

Since Bush will likely evade prosecution for his Iraq war crimes, it would certainly be an acceptable consolation prize to see this particular piece of legislation unwound. Let the courts do what the Congress didn't have the stones to.

The judge presiding over the case, U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker of San Francisco, announced late Monday he wanted to discuss 11 questions (.pdf) at Tuesday's hearing, one of which goes directly to the heart of the immunity legislation.

Is there any precedent for this type of enactment that is analogous in all of these respects: retroactivity; immunity for constitutional violations; and delegation of broad discretion to the executive branch to determine whether to invoke the provision?

Carl Tobias, a professor at the University of Richmond School of Law, says the immunity legislation, if upheld, "makes it possible to extend immunity to other areas of the law." ...

The EFF is now challenging the immunity legislation on the grounds that it seeks to circumvent the Constitution's separation of powers clause, as well as Americans' Fourth Amendment rights against unreasonable searches and seizures.

"The legislation is an attempt to give the president the authority to terminate claims that the president has violated the people's Fourth Amendment rights," the EFF's Cohn says. "You can't do that."

God damn right. I'll bet the judge agrees. The SCOTUS, however ...

30 miles of Ike debris in Chambers County

Two and a half months after Hurricane Ike blasted the shoreline, alligators and snakes crawl over vast piles of shattered building materials, lawn furniture, trees, boats, tanks of butane and other hazardous substances, thousands of animal carcasses, perhaps even the corpses of people killed by the storm.

State and local officials complain that the removal of the filth has gone almost nowhere because FEMA red tape has held up both the cleanup work and the release of the millions of dollars that Chambers County says it needs to pay for the project.

Elsewhere along the coast, similar complaints are heard: the Federal Emergency Management Agency has been slow to reimburse local governments for what they have already spent, putting the rural counties on the brink of financial collapse.

"I don't know all the internal workings of FEMA. But if they've had a lot of experience in hurricanes and disaster, it looks like they could come up with some kind of process that would work," said Chambers County Judge Jimmy Sylvia, the county's chief administrator.

I met Judge Sylvia in 2006, in Anahuac with David Van Os on the Texas county courthouse tour he made as part of his run for state attorney general. And of course it's not just Chambers County; everybody knows Galveston is still wrecked but in Bridge City -- where they had to rescue people off the roofs of their houses when the 12-ft. storm surge came up -- many of the Orange County residents are still living in tents, waiting for FEMA trailers to arrive.

Galveston County Judge Jim Yarbrough tells the story of receiving word on Sept. 12, as Ike closed in on Galveston, that FEMA was sending him $1.8 million of his $3 million request for storm cleanup — from Hurricane Rita, three years ago.

"Good Lord! The red tape and rules you have to go through to get anything done," Yarbrough said. "On Hurricane Ike, when we're putting out tens of millions, we can't afford a three-year reimbursement program. It would bankrupt most entities in this area if it takes that long.

It's not just Ike that Texans are still suffering from, either:

Near the Mexican border, thousands of families remain in homes damaged by Dolly, the storm that blew ashore on South Padre Island on July 23. FEMA was helpful at first, but bureaucracy and the distraction of the other hurricanes have slowed the recovery, local officials said.

A farmworker rights organization and 14 poor South Texas residents sued FEMA last month, accusing the agency of refusing to help thousands of poor families repair their homes.

"I understand they have Hurricane Ike, but we had a Category 2 come through the Valley, too," Hidalgo County Judge J.D. Salinas said.

Whoever gets to be the next FEMA director inherits this clusterfuck.

Spectacular sky scene tonight

Be sure and look up at the moon this evening:

Every once in a while, something will appear in the night sky that will attract the attention of even those who normally don't bother looking up. It's likely to be that way on Monday evening, Dec. 1.

A slender crescent moon, just 15-percent illuminated, will appear in very close proximity to the two brightest planets in our sky, Venus and Jupiter.

People who are unaware or have no advance notice will almost certainly wonder, as they cast a casual glance toward the moon on that night, what those two "large silvery stars" happen to be? Sometimes, such an occasion brings with it a sudden spike of phone calls to local planetariums, weather offices and even police precincts. Not a few of these calls excitedly inquire about "the UFOs" that are hovering in the vicinity of our natural satellite.

More.

Monday Funnies: The Clintons are back

I think Hillary as SoS is an inspired selection, but that won't keep me from having some fun with her (and her husband) ...

Weekly Wrangle: Tryptophan the light fantastic

Turkey has been eaten, holiday decorations are up -- or at least out of the garage -- and it's time for the Texas Progressive Alliance's weekly round-up.

The Texas Cloverleaf looks at the large donors from DFW who supported Prop 8. Over $335,000 went to California from 59 individuals. Time to consider the DFW Black List!

John Coby at Bay Area Houston is giving thanks to the GOP .

jobsanger looks at the $7.5 million of sales tax money that Wal-Mart gets to keep every year here in Texas, and says it is time to cap the amount of tax money a business may keep to cover the cost of collecting the tax in I Learned Something New & I Don't Like It.

CouldBeTrue at South Texas Chisme wonders how hard can it be to elect someone other than Tom Craddick Speaker of the House? Geeez!

Stace Medellin at DosCentavos reminds us why guest worker programs will fail with a story on Braceros still trying to collect monies owed themby Mexico after decades.

Toni at WhosPlayin took some time off from political work to take in a bilingual performance of "A Midsummer Night's Dream" in Fort Worth by Teatro De La Rosa and offers her review.

North Texas Liberal wonders why Democrats are so anxious to throw former President Bill Clinton under the bus.

The Burnt Orange Report takes a look at Austin activism and the Austin Prop 8 Blacklist.

If sometimes you feel like a nut, McBlogger reports you'll be right at home on the State Board of Education.

BossKitty at TruthHugger reflects how Bush tried and failed to show the world a morally superior nation, instead, he showed the world what hypocritical horse's asses we really are, and Why America Is No Longer THE Role Model - Op Ed

Off the Kuff continues his analysis of Harris County precinct data with a look at HD-133, the microcosm of the county.

Neil at Texas Liberal is a big time player who drinks expensive scotch and gambles at first-class casinos.

Dembones at Eye On Williamson takes Rick Perry to task for defending Texas polluters.

PDiddie gave thanks for illegal immigrants, the inanity of Jared Woodfill, and the life and memory of Jim Mattox at Brains and Eggs.

Over at TexasKaos, Txsharon explains how Cheney Helped Halliburton Hide Secrets About Dangerous Chemicals in YOUR Drinking Water. As she reports:

The oil and gas industry is the only industry in America that is allowed by EPA to inject KNOWN hazardous material-unchecked-directly into or adjacent to underground drinking water supplies.

EARTHWORKS-Hydraulic Fracturing of Oil and Gas Wells

Vince at Capitol Annex notes that a state district judge has ruled that he does not have jurisdiction to rule on a case related to the House District 105 recount.