EV 8/24: Still close

A few states move into the grey tossup column: NV, NH, and FL. IN moves red so the numbers are still an improvement for the Republican. There's no way yet to score the electoral bounce Obama will get by this time next week of McCain's houses gaffe, or the selection of Biden, or just the standard convention bounce -- which McCain will try to limit by announcing his veep on Friday, the day after Obama's outdoor acceptance speech.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Cindy McCain ‘unsure’ how many half-sisters she has

Thanks to Rag Blog for the Andy Borowitz satire (that bites in a hideous way):

Ms. McCain's claims of being an only child were clouded this week by revelations that she has at least two heretofore unmentioned half-sisters, leading to reporters' queries as to whether more undisclosed half-siblings were waiting in the wings.

When a reporter from the Toledo Blade asked Mrs. McCain at a campaign stop in Ohio about how many half-sisters she had, she looked momentarily startled by the question before handing it off to a staff member.

Mrs. McCain's uncertainty about the precise tally of her siblings, coming on the heels of her husband's confusion about the number of the couples' homes, might not be as big a problem for the McCain campaign as some might expect, says Davis Logsdon, professor of economics at the University of Minnesota. "As long as the couple has more homes than half-sisters, they could easily house one of the half-sisters in each of the residences and keep them happy," Dr. Logsdon says. "However, if the number of half-sisters grows faster than the number of homes, that could potentially lead to crowding."

Mrs. McCain actually has only one half-sister, who did not share in the $100-million beer distribution inheritance left to Cindy by her father. The "only child" comments seem to be nothing more than another cruel cut.

Sunday Funnies

Biden

David Brooks, in a rare cogent moment:

Working-Class Roots. Biden is a lunch-bucket Democrat. His father was rich when he was young — played polo, cavorted on yachts, drove luxury cars. But through a series of bad personal and business decisions, he was broke by the time Joe Jr. came along. They lived with their in-laws in Scranton, Pa., then moved to a dingy working-class area in Wilmington, Del. At one point, the elder Biden cleaned boilers during the week and sold pennants and knickknacks at a farmer’s market on the weekends.

His son was raised with a fierce working-class pride — no one is better than anyone else. Once, when Joe Sr. was working for a car dealership, the owner threw a Christmas party for the staff. Just as the dancing was to begin, the owner scattered silver dollars on the floor and watched from above as the mechanics and salesmen scrambled about for them. Joe Sr. quit that job on the spot.

I once worked for somebody like that myself.

Honesty. Biden’s most notorious feature is his mouth. But in his youth, he had a stutter. As a freshman in high school he was exempted from public speaking because of his disability, and was ridiculed by teachers and peers. His nickname was Dash, because of his inability to finish a sentence.

He developed an odd smile as a way to relax his facial muscles (it still shows up while he’s speaking today) and he’s spent his adulthood making up for any comments that may have gone unmade during his youth.

Today, Biden’s conversational style is tiresome to some, but it has one outstanding feature. He is direct. No matter who you are, he tells you exactly what he thinks, before he tells it to you a second, third and fourth time.

Presidents need someone who will be relentlessly direct. Obama, who attracts worshippers, not just staff members, needs that more than most.

While the comparisons to W and Cheney in 2000 are striking, this is one of the most fundamental differences.

Loyalty. Just after Biden was elected to the senate in 1972, his wife, Neilia, and daughter Naomi were killed in a car crash. His career has also been marked by lesser crises. His first presidential run ended in a plagiarism scandal. He nearly died of a brain aneurism.

New administrations are dominated by the young and the arrogant, and benefit from the presence of those who have been through the worst and who have a tinge of perspective. Moreover, there are moments when a president has to go into the cabinet room and announce a decision that nearly everyone else on his team disagrees with. In those moments, he needs a vice president who will provide absolute support. That sort of loyalty comes easiest to people who have been down themselves, and who had to rely on others in their own moments of need.

Experience. When Obama talks about postpartisanship, he talks about a grass-roots movement that will arise and sweep away the old ways of Washington. When John McCain talks about it, he describes a meeting of wise old heads who get together to craft compromises. Obama’s vision is more romantic, but McCain’s is more realistic.

When Biden was a young senator, he was mentored by Hubert Humphrey, Mike Mansfield and the like. He was schooled in senatorial procedure in the days when the Senate was less gridlocked. If Obama hopes to pass energy and health care legislation, he’s going to need someone with that kind of legislative knowledge who can bring the battered old senators together, as in days of yore.

As with Kos, I could have been much happier with a better progressive, but I have forgiven Joe for his bad vote on the bankruptcy bill, and believe this was the best of the remaining options Obama had winnowed.

This settling for the third-best, a-little-too-conservative choice is an early pattern of reaction for me to the coming Obama presidency. I won't be thrilled if the trend continues, I likely won't even be satisfied often, but compared to the blight of the first eight years of the century so far ... it's an improvement.

"They go Rezko, we go Keating"

Brian Rogers, McCain spokesman:

"Does a guy who made more than $4 million last year, just got back from vacation on a private beach in Hawaii and bought his own million-dollar mansion with the help of a convicted felon really want to get into a debate about houses?"

Let's git it on, you little bitch.

"They go Rezko, we go Keating," said a Democratic strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity to divulge potential campaign strategy. "If they want to escalate, bring it on."

This is how you win a mothereffin' election in the RoveWorld.

The Keating Five is an old story, so many reporters have shied away from saying much about it because it isn't new -- there aren't a whole lot of new developments in the story. But with McCain talking about allegedly shady relationships, the opportunity is there to go back over McCain's ties to Keating -- whose nefarious activities, which were at least in part aided by his relationship with McCain, ended up costing the American taxpayer $3.4 billion (a whole lot more than the $14 million Rezko was alleged to have received).

Just how close was McCain to Keating? Take a look at this rundown I posted back in January:

Though McCain might try to downplay his involvement, his campaigns received $124,000 from Keating and his associates during the 1980s (AP, 3/2/91), and McCain was described as being personally closer to Keating than any of the other members of the Keating Five (Roll Call, 1/20/92). What's more, McCain accepted more than $15,000 in free trips from Keating, including vacations to Keating's resort in the Bahamas -- trips that McCain failed to disclose at the time (New York Times, 2/28/91; San Francisco Chronicle, 12/3/90).

In the end, the crash of Keating's savings and loan -- which had been shielded by some of his best friends in the United States Senate -- cost billions to the American taxpayer, as mentioned above, and all told the federal government ended up on the hook for close to $125 billion in the fallout of the crisis that befell the underregulated industry in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Does McCain really want to have to talk about all of this? About the Bahaman vacations he took paid for by Keating? Probably not. But he may soon have to as a result of the shortsightedness of his campaign advisors.

Like Brian Rogers.

Attacks will keep working for the Republicans until we beat them at their game. That, and only that, will force them to think up a new game in 2012. In a post-Rove environment.

John McMansions

It's easy now to see how the senior senator from Arizona got confused on his domiciles. He only owns what his wife owns, after all. But here's an inventory:

-- In California, McGrumpy owns three condominium properties. Two are in Coronado, both are on the beach, offering breathtaking views of the ocean, particularly at sunset, and are each valued in excess of $2 million (one at 2.1, one at 2.7). The other is in La Jolla, the tony suburb of San Diego, and is worth a paltry $1.1 mil.

-- In Arizona, McLame has three residences: a $4.67 million condo in the prestigious Camelback, a smaller unit in the Phoenix Biltmore, apparently lived in by one of his daughters and worth just $700,000; and the stunning Sedona compound, which only counts as one home but actually has five houses on the property. It was featured in the July 2005 edition of Architectural Digest and comes in at a fabulously reasonable $1.65 million.

-- And in Arlington, VA, a Crystal City condo valued at $847,000 for when he is performing his duties as United States Senator. Which hasn't been often this year.

McSenile also has a $10 million Cessna Citation to travel around to his various houses in.

Very confusing. I understand now.

Update: Why do the McCains own two condos in Coronado, you may be asking? Because their children crowded them out of the first one. And Mrs. McCain purchased the second condo about the same time her husband was commiserating with Americans who "were working at second jobs" and "skipping a vacation" in order to make their own mortgage payments.

Terribly, terribly confusing.

It's seven, John. Worth thirteen million bucks.

At least we know now he wasn't lying or even flip-flopping when he said he didn't understand economics. Oh well, Phil Gramm has rejoined the campaign; it can be his job to remind him. A couple of times a week:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in an interview Wednesday that he was uncertain how many houses he and his wife, Cindy, own.

"I think — I'll have my staff get to you," McCain told Politico in Las Cruces, N.M. "It's condominiums where — I'll have them get to you."

Can't remember how many houses he owns, can't tell a Sunni from a Shia, thinks Pakistan shares a border with Iraq, has both supported and opposed offshore drilling, the Bush tax cuts ...

... and Obama is losing ground to this guy?

"I, Stephanie Tubbs Jones, a representative from Ohio..."

Today, Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones, along with Senator Barbara Boxer (CA), entered a formal objection to the certification of the state of Ohio's (2004) electoral votes. Her prepared floor statement, in part, was as follows:

"I, Stephanie Tubbs Jones, a representative from Ohio, and Ms. Boxer, a Senator from California, object to the counting of the electoral votes of the State of Ohio on the ground that they were not, under all of the known circumstances, regularly given.

"I thank God that I have a Senator joining me in this objection. I appreciate Senator Boxer's willingness to listen to the plight of hundreds and even thousands of Ohio voters that for a variety of reasons were denied the right to vote. Unfortunately objecting to the electoral votes from Ohio is the only immediate avenue to bring these issues to light.

"While some have called our cause foolish I can assure you that my parents, Mary and Andrew Tubbs did not raise any fools and as a lawyer, former judge and prosecutor, I am duty bound to follow the law and apply the law to the facts as I find them.

"It is on behalf of those millions of Americans who believe in and value our democratic process and the right to vote that I put forth this objection today. If they are willing stand at the polls for countless hours in the rain as many did in Ohio, then I can surely stand up for them here in the halls of Congress.

"This objection does not have at its root the hope or even the hint of overturning or challenging the victory of the President; but it is a necessary, timely and appropriate opportunity to review and remedy the most precious process in our democracy."

"I raise this objection neither to put the nation in the turmoil of a proposed overturned election nor to provide cannon fodder or partisan demagoguery for my fellow Republican Members of Congress.

"I raise this objection because I am convinced that we as a body must conduct a formal and legitimate debate about election irregularities. I raise this objection to debate the process and protect the integrity of the true will of the people.

"Again, I thank Senator Boxer for joining me in this objection to the counting of Ohio's electoral votes due to the considerable number of voting irregularities that transpired in my home state.

"There are serious allegations in two lawsuits pending in Ohio that debate the constitutionality of the denial of provisional ballots to voters (The Sandusky County Democratic Party v. J. Kenneth Blackwell) and Ohio's vote recount (Yost v. David Cobb, et al.). These legitimate questions brought forward by the lawsuits, which go to the core of our voting and Democratic process, should be resolved before Ohio's electoral votes are certified.

"Moreover, as you are aware, advancing legislative initiatives is more challenging when you are in the minority party in Congress. However, this challenge is multiplied when you are in the minority in the House of Representatives because of House rules, compared to Senate rules.

"Voting irregularities were an issue after the 2000 presidential election, when Democratic House initiatives relating to election reform were not considered.

"Therefore, in order to prevent our voices from being kept silent, it is imperative that we object to the counting of Ohio's electoral votes and debate the issue of Ohio's voting improprieties.

"There are just over 1 million registered voters in Cuyahoga County - which of course includes the Greater Cleveland area and the 11th Congressional District which I represent. Registration increased approximately 10 percent.

"The beauty of the 2004 election was that more people were fully prepared to exercise their right to vote -- however on Election Day hundreds and even thousands of individuals went to the voting polls and were denied the opportunity to have their vote count.

"In my own county where citizen volunteers put forth a Herculean effort to register, educate, mobilize and protect the vote there were people who experienced irregularities.

"Poor and minority communities had disproportionately long waits -- 4 to 5 hour waits were widespread. Election Protection Coalition testified that more than half of the complaints about long lines they received came from Columbus and Cleveland where a huge proportion of the state’s Democratic voters live. One entire polling place in Cuyahoga County (Greater Cleveland) had to “shut down” at 9:25 a.m. on Election Day because there were no working machines.

"Cuyahoga County had an overall provisional ballot rejection rate of 32 percent. Rejection rates for provisional ballots in African American precincts/wards in Cleveland, Ohio averaged 37 percent and ranged as high as 51 percent.

"Thousands of partisan challengers -- concentrated in Cuyahoga County’s minority and Democratic communities -- effectively served to intimidate voters and confuse poll workers. There were both inconsistent and illegal requests for photo identification.

"There were problems with absentee ballots including incorrect information provided to voters by the Secretary of State and, consequently, the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections telling voters they could not vote in their precinct –- effectively disenfranchising hundreds and more likely thousands of voters.

"This objection points out the inadequacy of a great election system which permits 50 Secretary's of State to administer a federal election and impose so many different state laws regulating the election.

"In Ohio, the Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, who served as Co-Chair of the Bush re-election campaign, issued a bizarre series of directives in the days preceding the 2004 Presidential election that created tremendous confusion among voters in Cuyahoga County and across the state of Ohio.

"For example; on September 7, 2004, Secretary Blackwell issued a directive to local boards of elections mandating rejection of voter registration forms based on their paperweight – 80lb text weight. Mr. Blackwell’s issuance of this directive – which he ultimately reversed by September 28, 2004 - resulted in serious confusion and chaos among the counties and voters.

"My objection points to the need to implement across this nation standards that apply to all states. We need to enact legislation that will:

* Allow all voters to vote early - so that obligations of employment and family will not interfere with the ability to cast a vote.
* Establish a national holiday - Election Day - to bring attention to the importance of the vote.
* Require those who work in the voting booth to be fairly compensated, adequately educated and sufficiently supported such that the job importance will be elevated.
* That will provide equipment - whether it is the traditional punch card or the more modern electronic machines - that are properly calibrated, fully tested for accuracy and provide a paper trail to ensure a verifiable audit of every vote.

"What happened in Ohio may well have been repeated in counties across this country. Yet that is no excuse for us to push the irregularities behind us and go on with the business of the day. These incidents are a call for us to clean up, clear up and implement policies and procedures that will protect each citizen's precious right to vote.

"If in fact we see it is our obligation to secure democracy around the world to monitor and oversee free and fair elections in other countries surely we must ensure, protect and guarantee the right to vote right here at home."

Rest in peace, Stephanie. Thanks for fighting for all of us.

More evidence attack ads work

I am in complete agreement with this:

While voters constantly complain about negative ads, campaigns use them because they work. A new LA Times national poll shows that a month of ads attacking Obama as a lightweight unready to lead have erased his lead nationally. The two are in a statistical tie. Obama's advantage in the electoral college has also vanished. If you compare the 2008 electoral college graph with the 2004 one, the parallels are striking. Kerry led throughout the summer until the Swift Boat ad kicked in, and it was downhill from there. Kerry never recovered.

It will be interesting to see if Obama has studied the 2004 campaign and goes negative himself. He has three possible themes. First, he can paint McCain as out of touch with how many Americans are struggling economically. If he wants to get personal (as McCain has), he can depict McCain as the man with $520 Italian shoes, half a dozen houses, a wife worth $100 million and the view that someone making $4 million a year is not rich. There is some evidence that he will continue to run a positive national campaign but start hitting McCain on the economy in specific media markets. For example, in Ohio he's hitting McCain because Rick Davis (McCain's campaign manager) helped broker a deal to move 8000 jobs from Ohio to Kentucky. A second theme is that McCain is an honorable man but at 71 is losing his marbles (can't tell a Sunni from a Shi'ite, thinks Czechoslovakia is still a country, etc.). A third plausible theme is that McCain used to be a maverick but in his pandering to the base has now repudiated everything he used to stand for (was against, now for Bush tax cuts; was for, now against his own immigration bill; was against, now for torture, etc.). In at least one way, Republicans are much smarter than Democrats: they fully realize that the way to win is to attack your opponent relentlessly, preferable on a single topic. This year's topic is Obama's lack of experience.

Obama's vice-presidential selection is unlikely to enthuse the Democratic grassroots base. He may get a small convention bounce that will almost surely be mitigated by McCain's efforts to thwart it. announcing his own veep pick the day after Obama's coronation before 75,000 in Denver's football stadium. The still-presumptive nominee will lead a not-so-unified party out of the convention, with the intractable, bitter PUMAs and other disaffected but less neurotic Clinton supporters diminishing his campaign's excitement.

He now must go on the attack against McCain -- and the sooner the better, or risk the same fate as John Kerry; losing an election that should be easily won, failing to respond quickly and forcefully in the face of reprehensible and scurrilous personal attacks.

This is the sorry state of presidential politics in America. If Obama refuses to get into a street fight with McCain and the second-generation Roves, he will lose the presidency. And he had better not wait much longer to start fighting.

In more encouraging developments, Toby Keith says he likes Obama, and outs himself as a Democrat:

"So as far as leadership and patriotism goes, I think it's really important that those things have to take place. And I think he's the best Democratic candidate we've had since Bill Clinton. And that's coming from a Democrat."

Something for all the rednecks to ponder as they drive around in their F-350's, with "Beer for my Horses" playing in the CD.

Gov. White, meet Mayor White. Bill, you know Mark ...?

Two Whites want to trade jobs:

Former Texas Gov. Mark W. White is considering whether to run for mayor of Houston in 2009.

"It's a prospect," he said in telephone interview today.

The Democratic businessman, who grew up in Houston and served as governor from 1983 to 1987, added, "I have talked to a number of people (about running) and have been very pleased by their response."

Mayor Bill White, no relation to the former governor, cannot seek re-election because of term limits. The election 15 months from now will produce his successor.

Councilman and architect Peter Brown already has announced his candidacy for mayor. Lawyer and former Kemah Mayor Bill King is considered a likely candidate for the Houston job. Controller Annise Parker is expected to run for mayor, too.

Since King -- former Giuliani and now McCain supporter -- was the featured speaker at a Meyerland Democrats meeting last night, and since Brown -- previously known as both a staunch and progressive Democrat -- was spotted at last week's Karl Rove fundraiser, it sure would be nice if Houston had somebody running for mayor who knew which side of the street he was supposed to be working.

That is no slam against you either, Annise.

Person Bill King

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Biden? Portman? No, Maddow

I don't really care now whom the presidential candidataes pick; Rachel Maddow is getting her own show on MSNBC, right after Keith Olbermann:

Just in time for the closing rush of the presidential election, MSNBC is shaking up its prime-time programming lineup, removing the long-time host –- and one-time general manager of the network — Dan Abrams from his 9 p.m. program and replacing him with Rachel Maddow, who has emerged as a favored political commentator for the all-news cable channel.

The moves, which were confirmed by MSNBC executives Tuesday, are expected to be finalized by Wednesday, with Mr. Abrams’s last program on Thursday. After MSNBC’s extensive coverage of the two political conventions during the next two weeks, Ms. Maddow will begin her program on Sept. 8.

MSNBC is highlighting the date, 9/8/08, connecting it to the start of the Olympics on 8/8/08, as a way to signal what the network’s president, Phil Griffin, said “will be the final leg of the political race this year.” He added, “We're making that Rachel’s debut.”

Hallelujah. This is hands down the best news of the week.

Sunday Funnies ("grandson of a millworker" edition)