Friday, October 05, 2018

A few events and a few developments (not Kavanaugh-related)

-- Beto's response to Obama's non-endorsement: "Don't think we're interested."

This seems to have provoked some consternation among white neoliberals concern-trolling on behalf of black Democratic voters.  There also seems to be a complete lack of awareness on their part as to the price paid for chasing Republican centrists and independent conservatives.  Now I don't give one solid shit for Barack Obama or his policies or his endorsements, as you all should know; I just find it highly amusing that establishment Democrats remain this clueless.

(If you think Obama didn't call these folks to make sure they would accept his stamp of approval ... I have a bridge to sell you.)

O'Rourke is under stress to go negative from his supporters, who are being scared by Ted Cruz's onslaught of negative teevee advertising against the Democrat.  We're way beyond yard sign wars.  Lying and smearing were always going to be what Cruz does because that's who he is.

That was a tactic that failed repeatedly before.  Maybe not any longer.

His campaign is now consumed with shaping Beto O’Rourke as the embodiment of  a uniquely dangerous and unhinged opposition. Despite his warm and fuzzy rhetoric, Cruz insists that the El Paso congressman, much like Obama, is a radical. In fact, Cruz says, he’s further left than Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren and even Bernie Sanders.

In Cruz’s portrayal, O’Rourke is a gun-grabbing tax-hiker who wants to abolish ICE, open the borders, legalize narcotics and obstruct Trump. And he wants senior citizens’ crown jewel — Medicare — to become fully socialized.

[...]

Heading into the final stretch, Cruz has dialed up his extremist caricature of O’Rourke with the explicit intent of scaring the bejeezus out of old, white and conservative Texans — the bedrock of a typical midterm electorate. His campaign, along with a battalion of billionaire-backed super PACs, has unleashed a barrage of attack ads. The offensive has included a Willie Horton-style ad falsely claiming that O’Rourke supports decriminalizing illegal border crossings; the ad features mugshots of undocumented immigrants who repeatedly crossed the border and committed heinous crimes.

In one of the most heated moments during their first debate, Cruz lashed out at O’Rourke, twisting recent comments he made about how the criminal justice system has become “the new Jim Crow” into an attack on police officers. Asked whether he’s concerned about police violence against unarmed black people, Cruz gave a perfunctory response about his concern for all people’s rights (echoing the “All Lives Matter” line). Then, with a somber tone that crescendoed into indignation, he said he’d been to too many police officer funerals because of the “irresponsible, hateful rhetoric” that he accused O’Rourke of using.

The black vote shouldn't be staying home or skipping his line because Beto is too afraid to take Obama's endorsement.  But they might.  Just sayin'.

There's some rumoring among the elite set that polls are starting to break Cruz's way.  I suppose we will see by Monday or so.  In the meantime, Henson and Blank at the Texas Politics Project have slightly updated their 9/12 blog post, excerpted and linked here, and posted it at The Conversation, changing the headline to "Beto won't beat Ted".

-- It's the last weekend to get people registered to cast a ballot in November.  Who's showing up at this event?  Stace is going to be taking pictures, you know.

-- This event today is important for our local homeless veterans.
More here.

-- At ten this morning, a press conference will be held at the Harris County Civil Courthouse, 201 Caroline,  regarding Ken Paxton's three-year-old indictment and stalled prosecution.

A group of concerned citizens, led by long-time civic activists Barbara Ann Radnofsky and the Honorable Frances “Sissy” Farenthold, is presenting a “Petition of Remonstrance” compelling the authorities to move forward with the criminal prosecution of indicted Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for securities fraud.

The case, which includes three felony indictments brought against Mr. Paxton by a Texas Grand Jury more than three years ago, has been stalled due to politically-motivated constraints on funding of the court-appointed prosecution.

A Petition of Remonstrance has been drafted and signed, urging the authorities to remove all obstacles to trial and allowing justice to take its course. Radnofsky explains that “a Petition of Remonstrance is an established channel for citizens to express grievances under the Texas Constitution. It’s older than the Republic of Texas, and we are giving it new life. This Remonstrance will also be presented to the Collin County Commissioners Court. They have a legally-recognized duty under Texas law to ‘stop, look and listen’ to this Remonstrance.”

A video explaining the petition is here.

The Texas Observer has written a revealing piece about how the extremists in Paxton's home county have not only shielded him but martyred him in this regard.  Read the 11-count Tweet thread for a summary if your time is short at the moment.  And then give a hand to Justin Nelson.

More events you should know about this weekend will be posted tomorrow morning.

Thursday, October 04, 2018

Kavanaugh confirmation *updates

From the beginning I've thought he was going to make it in and I only wavered a week ago, as Dr. Ford's testimony moved me emotionally ... and the nominee's stunned.  It only took a few hours, though, and the psychotic rant of Lindsey Graham -- and the Republican base's high-fiving and 'owning the libs' -- to bring me back to Trumpworld reality.  Not even Jeff Flake forcing the FBI (whitewash of an) investigation re-changed my mind.

This whip count from Dustin Rowles at Pajiba makes a little sense.


Look: It’s all going to come down to a handful of people. I don’t know how it’s going to go, but my guess is this: Democrat Joe Manchin will flip and vote for Kavanaugh (it’s what his West Virginia constituents would want, and he’s got a sizable lead in the polls, so he’s not worried about being voted out either way). Manchin’s vote will give Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski cover to vote against Kavanaugh (as their Alaska and Maine constituents want), and it will come down to Jeff Flake, who ultimately will vote for Kavanaugh, providing the GOP with 50 votes. Pence will break the tie. Kavanaugh will be confirmed. There will be another Women’s March like gathering before the midterms, and the GOP will pay for it at the ballot box, although it won’t stop Brett Kavanaugh from repealing Roe v. Wade.

What's missing here is Heitkamp from North Dakota -- losing badly in the polling for re-election -- voting for Kavanaugh.  Joe Donnelly of Indiana is making progress but it's still close; he'll vote 'yes' to reinforce that small lead.  Tester of Montana could be a 'no' on Kavanaugh but will likely be an 'aye' as Trump's visits to Big Sky country and the mood of voters there shows some tightening.  These three Blue Dogs give Flake an opportunity to flake out and vote no, and Bitch McConnell still would not need Pence's tie-breaker.

I think it goes more like that.

Update: And with this news, it won't even be that close.

Update II:


Given her polling, it's a very brave vote because it probably dooms her re-election fate.  That would give the GOP a flip in the Senate.  And unless Heitkamp is joined by a few other hardy souls, I don't see how it -- or the mass protests inside the Hart Senate office building happening this afternoon -- changes the final outcome.

Update III: Tester and Donnelly are both no votes.  That leaves an unofficial whip count at 48-48 with four -- Collins, Manchin, Murkowski, and Flake -- still on the fence (but not what I would call undecided, just undeclared).  I see but one potential 'aye' among those, and even if there were two, Pence breaks the tie.  Grassley said within the past hour that the vote will be held Saturday.

Look how fluid the situation has been just this afternoon, though.