Thursday, July 16, 2020

White House Update: Parscale dumped, Biden hacked, Greens wrap up convention, Kanye's in/out/in

President Donald Trump shook up his campaign leadership on Wednesday, announcing he was promoting Bill Stepien to be his campaign manager and demoting Brad Parscale, who had been serving in that role.

The announcement comes on the same day that two national polls showed the president trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden by double digits.

Parscale will be demoted to senior adviser, and Bill Stepien, the deputy campaign manager, will take over the top position. Trump made the announcement on Facebook on Wednesday evening, with Twitter temporarily unavailable due to a hacking.

Parscale will stay on in his role leading the campaign's digital strategy and will serve as a senior adviser, Trump said. Parscale was the digital guru of the president's insurgent 2016 White House bid but had not worked as a campaign manager prior to taking that role ahead of the 2020 race.

Stepien was recently promoted to deputy campaign manager. He previously served as the White House political director during Trump’s first two years in office. Before that, he was the campaign manager for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s two successful statewide campaigns in the Garden State.

 
Changing cooks in the middle of dinner isn't going to improve the quality of the ingredients or the taste of the food; it's the recipe'.  Still a disaster.

Parscale was hand-picked by Jared Kushner, the president's adviser and son-in-law. He had been in the role longer than any of Trump's previous campaign managers. ... This has been foreshadowed for weeks, and moves like elevating Stepien and bringing back Jason Miller, a top campaign spokesman and 2016 adviser, kicked off the transition. It’s an important reflection of Trump acknowledging how vulnerable his re-election bid looks -- and his desire to find someone other than himself at fault.

Axios goes on to note that it is Kushner who is obviously running Trump's re-election campaign from the White House.  And it's worth being reminded that Trump blew up his 2016 staff org late in that cycle, firing manager Corey Lewandowski and chairman Paul Manafort, overcoming "grab 'em by the pussy" and defying the polling to win.

-- Let's play devil's advocate a little more.

Less than four months out from the November election, the Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has been consistently polling ahead of Donald Trump.

The president’s approval numbers remain underwater, and Democrats believe they can seriously compete in traditionally red states including Texas, as Trump faces sustained criticism for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis linked to it, as well as the ongoing anti-racism protests against police brutality.

[...]

Some top party officials are feeling ambitious, and want to ride another potential 'blue wave' to try to win races that are usually out of reach in states like Georgia and Ohio. But there’s a strain of caution running through the Democratic party as well. Things looked great for them for a while in 2016, too, but Republicans ended up with control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, and the memory of that cataclysmic loss is still fresh.

“I mean, we are emotionally and mentally scarred in such a way that we are not going to feel comfortable until a week after Biden is sworn in,” said the Democratic strategist Tom Bowen.

In any election cycle, campaign officials use cautious phrases like “we’re not leaving anything to chance” or “campaigning like we’re 10 points down until election day” -- and the 2020 presidential race is no different.

[...]

... Democratic state officials and operatives expect polls to tighten and the summer high to end. In multiple interviews, these officials were hopeful but also realistic that the next few months won’t be easy.

From September, Biden and Trump will face each other in three televised debates, something Republican campaign officials hope the president will be able to dominate. Democrats are also expecting some kind of “October surprise” from the Trump campaign and a barrage of warnings about Democratic control of the White House and Congress.

“That tightening will happen. It’s natural. So what we need to be doing is building up our reserves now,” said the Maryland Democratic party chairwoman, Yvette Lewis. “So we can’t waste time right now worrying about the what-ifs.”


Is Joe Biden capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of landslide victory?  Do fish have lips?  Does the Tin Man have a sheet metal penis?  Is there a God?  (In the immortal words of noted philosopher George Costanza: "It's not a lie if you believe it.")

-- About yesterday's blue-check Twitter hack:


-- That makes for a nice segue to Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker.


-- And Mark Charles.


-- Kanye's in, he's out, he's ... in?

-- It's more than the usual aggravating that the Democrats are shutting off their convention to any semblance of free speech.



-- All that crap you're hearing about the progressive wing coming together behind Biden?  I wouldn't be buying that if I were you.


Liberals are gonna keep running that con, though.  'Prohibit new fracking on public lands' does not equal banning fracking.  And fracking must be banned.  The entire fossil fuel industry needs to go away, and quickly, but since we can't even get Joe to stop fracking, we. are. over.  As a species.  So go ahead and take off your mask and get thee to thy roadhouse and get drunk with your pals like the Republicans are doing.  The apostle Paul got it right.
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Wednesday, July 15, 2020

On to November! Texas Runoff Results Wrangle



Red Donkeys have a few wins to celebrate...


... and so do Blue Dogs.


Still, the West campaign was confident throughout the night that it would come out on top in its race against Hegar. Campaign spokesman Vince Leibowitz predicted that the race would come down to around just 10,000 votes.

Poor Vince.  Once upon a time -- as in 15 or so years ago -- he was co-founder of the Texas Progressive Alliance, a blogger of some esteem, with an uncle in the Lege and a day job as a hard-charging union delegate.  The world was his oyster.  After the factory cut him loose, however, he has gone from political consultant (Farouk Shami for Governor, anyone?) to real estate agent to, apparently, political consultant again.  His political instincts appear to be as sharp as ever.  I'm reminded that even as a newspaper journalist prior to the above, he had trouble spelling the word "loser" correctly.  He always used  two o's.

Supremely sad, ironic digression over.

There may yet be one more election before the fall.  Depending on mail ballots still outstanding, the jungle primary in SD14 could need a runoff.


TXElects posts a follow-up to their statehouse incumbent watch.

Four legislative incumbents out of six fell:

  • Lorraine Birabil (D-Dallas) lost to Jasmine Crockett, 50.5%-49.5%, after the challenger won Election Day voting, 61%-39%.
  • Anna Eastman (D-Houston) lost to Penny Shaw by 200 votes after losing Election Day voting, 54%-46%.
  • Dan Flynn (R-Van) lost to Bryan Slaton, 63%-37%, who was making his third bid for the seat; and
  • J.D. Sheffield (R-Gatesville) lost to Shelby Slawson, 62%-38%.

Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (D-Brownsville) and Rep. Harold Dutton (D-Houston) survived their runoff challenges.

Barring a special session, Birabil and Eastman joined former Reps. Dan Barrett (D-Fort Worth), John Lujan (R-San Antonio) and Laura Thompson (I-San Antonio) as special election winners who never cast a vote in the House.

Sheffield’s defeat extended to 11 the losing streak of incumbents who finished second in the primary election dating back to 1992. He faced the largest primary deficit of any of those incumbents.


The TexTrib's Alexa Ura has a good account of the tribulations experienced online and off during Election Day and Night.


And we can't let this round-up pass without saluting a few of the most ridiculous Republicans in the universe: our TXGOP.


Moving on to a diverse collation of BLM, police abuse, and other social justice headlines.


And two noteworthy Texans left us this past week.

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Monday, July 13, 2020

The Weekly Runoff Election Eve Wrangle (w/Election Day updates)


Update, Tuesday, July 14, pre-polls opening:

Six legislative incumbents were forced into runoffs when a majority of primary voters did not choose them back in March.
  • SD27 (D): Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (49.8%) vs. Sara Stapleton Barrera (36%)
  • HD2 (R): Rep. Dan Flynn (45%) vs. Bryan Slaton (36%)
  • HD59 (R): Shelby Slawson (46%) vs. Rep. J.D. Sheffield (30%)
  • HD100 (D): Rep. Lorraine Birabil (29%) vs. Jasmine Crockett (26%)
  • HD142 (D): Rep. Harold Dutton (45%) vs. Jerry Davis (25%)
  • HD148 (D): Rep. Anna Eastman (42%) vs. Penny Morales Shaw (22%)

Since 1996, 28 incumbent legislators have been forced into runoffs, and 23 of them have lost. All five who prevailed finished first in the primary election, and four of those finished at least 17 points ahead of their opponent in the primary election. This year, that would include Dutton and Eastman, who respectively have the third and fourth largest margin in the primary over their runoff opponent in 24 years.


Also from TXElects: "Heavy mail ballot count likely to delay election night calls in close races"

*   *    *

Chicken Fried Politics (copy and links lightly edited for Lone Star relevance):

Voters in Alabama and Texas go to the polls Tuesday to decide several hotly contested U.S. Senate and House runoffs.

Trump features in several Congressional runoffs in the Lone Star State, notably in the 13th Congressional District (Texas Panhandle) where former White House doctor Ronny Jackson -- whom the president tried and failed to install as Veterans’ Affairs secretary in 2018 -- is competing with Josh Winegarner.  Jackson has the president’s endorsement.  Among Democrats, Greg Sagan will face Gus Trujillo.

In Texas' 17th District (Waco and parts of Central Texas), where incumbent Bill Flores is retiring, both parties are also holding runoffs.  Former U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, who rose to Republican leadership during two decades in Congress before losing his Dallas-area seat in 2018, is trying to make a comeback in a different district.  Sessions is facing businesswoman Renee Swann.  In the Democratic runoff, David Jaramillo will contend with Rick Kennedy.

In Texas' 22nd District (Sugar Land, southwestern Houston suburbs) Republicans will choose between Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls and businesswoman Kathaleen Wall  to replace retiring Pete Olson.  The winner will face Sri Preston Kulkarni in a fall contest that Democrats have targeted as a pickup opportunity. 

In Texas' 23rd District (West Texas, between San Antonio and El Paso), Iraq War veteran Tony Gonzales will square off against Raul Reyes, a builder and retired Air Force officer, in the Republican runoff.  Incumbent Will Hurd is retiring.  The winner will face Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who nearly defeated Hurd in 2018.

In Texas 24th District (Metro Dallas-Ft. Worth) Democrats Kim Olson, a retired Air Force colonel and former Weatherford school board member, will face Candace Valenzuela, who serves on the school board in Carrollton-Farmers Branch.  The winner will take on the Republican nominee, former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, for the right to succeed retiring incumbent Kenny Marchant in another race Democrats have targeted.

The Democratic runoff in Texas' 31st District (Northern Austin suburbs) features Donna Imam, an Austin computer engineer, against Christine Mann, a physician from Williamson County who lost the party’s runoff in this district in 2018.  The winner will face incumbent Republican John Carter, who is also on the Democrats’ target list.

And state Senator Royce West is competing with former Air Force combat pilot MJ Hegar, who narrowly lost to Carter in 2018, for the right to take on John Cornyn for a Senate seat that Democrats hope to flip in November.



Early voting ended Friday for Tuesday’s primary runoff and special elections. Across Texas, 647K people voted in the Democratic runoff -- 200K (31%) by mail-- accounting for 4% of registered voters statewide. Total votes cast already exceeds the total votes cast in each Democratic runoff since 1994 (747K).

I'll hold the presidential polling for the next White House Update.  Here's the latest on West/Hegar versus Cornyn.  Both the UT-Tyler poll released over the weekend and Cornyn's own pollster have Hegar leading with virtually the same percentage.


But Cornyn seems to want to run against Hegar, if his teevee ads attacking West as a "librul" can be interpreted as such.


Both our senators played "Quien es mas Stupido?" this past week.


Update: The man can't go one fucking day without making an ass of himself.


The State Bar of Texas elected ...well, you can read it for yourself.


Update: Texas lawyers want his resignation now, after three weeks as president.

Following up on an item in last week's Wrangle:


In media developments, a New Jersey hedge fund has been declared the high bidder for McClatchy, the company publishing the Fort Worth Star Telegram, the Miami Herald, the Kansas City Star, and 27 other daily newspapers.

Sanford Nowlin at the San Antonio Current reports that Rep. Joaquin Castro and several members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus have requested a sit-down with executives of two private prison companies, CoreCivic and GEO Group.  Both outfits also hold federal contracts to house immigrant detainees, and the treatment of those migrants has come under scrutiny in recent weeks.

Much more to post on social justice and the pandemic across the state, but wrapping up for today with the lighter side.


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Sunday, July 12, 2020

Sunday "Testing, Testing" Funnies

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Thursday, July 09, 2020

Lone Star Round Up: #CancelCulture comes for TXGOP-Con


Mayor Sylvester Turner exercised the nuclear option in stopping the RPT's state convention from becoming a super-spreader event in Space City next week.  Printers at the legal offices of conservative attorneys are whirring continuously as they churn out the lawsuits.

Update:

It's for their own good; they just don't get it.  Or refuse to.


A follow-up to a news item appearing in Monday's Wrangle:



I have an abundance of social justice pieces for this post.  Let me begin with the sad closing of the case of Vanessa Guillen; marches were held over the long holiday weekend last, and then crime investigators made the announcement everyone feared.


Sexual abuse and harassment of women detained by police officers -- a longtime and under-reported crime -- has become more blatant during the BLM protests.


LGBTQ community leaders have led the fight for Black Lives Matter in Houston.




In Denton -- not the most liberal bastion in the state -- community organizers have called for justice for Darius Tarver and the defunding of the city's police department.  The 20-year-old UNT student died in police custody in January.  His story is all too familiar by now.

Two environmental updates: first, the Permian Highway pipeline may suffer the same fate as the Keystone Xl and the Dakota Access pipelines.



Kinder Morgan’s 430-mile Permian Highway Pipeline faces a maze of litigation, and the legal action against other pipelines around the U.S. could have ripple effects in Texas.


Before I get to some election news ... we know that many of Trump's relatives and friends are on the dole as the CARES Act money was passed out, but a few Democrats also got caught with their hands in Uncle Sam's cookie jar.



The pre-eminent Texas Democratic election law attorney for two generations passed away over the Independence Day weekend.


And these to end the week.

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