Trump revealed in his speech at Mount Rushmore an executive order that will establish a
"National Garden of American Heroes," which he described as "a vast outdoor park
that will feature the statues of the greatest Americans who ever lived."
Texas has not voted for a Democratic president for 44 years. However, Democrats have a real chance to win in 2020.
— Plural Vote ππ³π (@plural_vote) June 30, 2020
Data shows that Texas is 9.2 points more Democratic than in 2016. Biden is now narrowly leading and is favored to win the state. #ElectionTwitter #VoteTexas pic.twitter.com/hdZdiI1O6U
Tellingly, of 18 Texas polls in the RealClearPolitics database matching Biden against Trump dating back to early last year, Trump has never led by more than seven points -- in a state he won by nine in 2016. It seems reasonable to assume that Trump is going to do worse in Texas than four years ago, particularly if his currently gloomy numbers in national surveys and state-level polls elsewhere do not improve.In an average of the most recent polls, Trump leads by two points in Texas. In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz won re-election over then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke by 2.6 points. If Trump were to win Texas by a similar margin this November, the congressional district-level results probably would look a lot like the Cruz-O’Rourke race. Those results are shown in Map 1 (see larger version at original link).
Cruz carried 18 districts to O’Rourke’s 16. That includes the 11 districts the Democrats already held in Texas going into the 2018 election, as well as the two additional ones where they beat GOP incumbents (TX-7 and TX-32) and three additional districts that Republicans still hold. Those are TX-23, an open swing seat stretching from San Antonio to El Paso; Rep. Michael McCaul’s TX-10, an Austin-to-Houston seat; and TX-24, another open seat in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area.
TX-23 is competitive primarily because it’s two-thirds Hispanic, and it already leans to the Democrats in our ratings. TX-10 and TX-24 better fit the suburban mold: both have significantly higher levels of four-year college attainment than the national average (particularly TX-24), and Republican incumbents in both seats nearly lost to unheralded Democratic challengers in 2018.
Cruz won the remaining districts, but several of them were close: TX-2, TX-3, TX-6, TX-21, TX-22, TX-25, and TX-31 all voted for Cruz by margins ranging from 0.1 points (TX-21) to 5.1 (TX-25). These districts all have at least average and often significantly higher-than-average levels of four-year college attainment, and they all are racially diverse.
In other words, these districts share some characteristics of those that have moved toward the Democrats recently, even though they remain right of center.
This is all a long preamble to an alarming possibility for Republicans: If Biden were to actually carry Texas, he might carry many or even all of these districts in the process. In a time when ticket-splitting is less common than in previous eras of American politics (though hardly extinct), that could exert some real pressure on Republicans in these districts.
We already have several of these districts included in our House ratings (see Table 2 at original). But we are moving four additional ones from Safe Republican to Likely Republican: Reps. Dan Crenshaw (TX-2), Van Taylor (TX-3), Ron Wright (TX-6), and Roger Williams (TX-25). They join Rep. John Carter (TX-31) in the Likely Republican category.
To be clear, we don’t really see any of them in immediate danger, and they certainly can and probably will run ahead of Trump in their districts, just like they all ran ahead of Cruz in 2018 (they also likely will have the kind of resource edges that can help make this happen). The same can be said of Sen. John Cornyn at the statewide level, who appears to be doing better than Trump in polls (although that may not last in the end).
Trump’s Texas sag in 2016 didn’t immediately imperil any Texas Republican U.S. House members, except for retiring Rep. Will Hurd in the perpetually swingy TX-23; it took the 2018 midterm, when Trump’s unpopularity led to big House losses for Republicans, to make many of these districts much more competitive. So it’s possible that Biden could do really well, but not have strong enough coattails in these and other similar kinds of districts. We also still like Trump’s chances in Texas, despite the close polls.
However, if that changes -- and if Biden wins the state without much ticket-splitting -- there could be some unpleasant surprises down the ballot for Republicans in Texas. That could also include control of the Texas state House of Representatives, which might be in play if things get bad enough for Republicans this November.
Redistricting looms for 2021; at the very least, Republicans who currently control state government in Texas may have to dramatically re-draw the map to shore up incumbents whose safe seats have eroded over the course of the decade while also accommodating a few new House seats because of Texas’ explosive growth. For Republicans, their gerrymander after the last census (albeit blunted a little by judicial intervention) made practical political sense, but demographic changes and coalition shifts pushed 20 of the 36 districts to vote more Democratic than the state in the 2018 Senate race.
Yesterday, the mayor said he would prefer the convention be held virtually but did not want to “politicize” things by canceling it. He changed his #COVID19 executive order Monday to remove his own authority to nix the event: https://t.co/EYLSe0u6i2 #txlege https://t.co/ara9mEew4n
— Jasper Scherer (@jaspscherer) July 3, 2020
.@TMFtx said a mask order is a good start, but he thinks giving local leaders control can make a big difference in helping to #FlattenTheCurve #COVID19 https://t.co/MTZsX3nQDr
— ABC13 Houston (@abc13houston) July 3, 2020
Dan Patrick on models of the solar system
— Retro Snacking (@Retrosnacking) July 3, 2020
“No thanks, Galileo! He doesn’t know what he is talking about. The sun at the center of the solar system,Ha! He’s been wrong every time on every issue. I don’t need his advice!”
#txlege pic.twitter.com/CjEhtMLJGI
A criminal complaint was filed against Cecily Aguilar on Thursday, charging her with one count of conspiracy to tamper with evidence, according to a press release sent by the United States Attorney’s Office, Western District of Texas. #VanessaGuillenhttps://t.co/gIJoH74A0i
— Fitz (@Ladybugs702) July 3, 2020
Texas oil industry faces prospect of collapse amid Covid-19 losses https://t.co/0lR00H5UEt
— Guardian US (@GuardianUS) June 26, 2020
Fracking company Chesapeake files for bankruptcy. Here’s what the new CEO found when he took the helm. https://t.co/zmv9St2QsC pic.twitter.com/POvy3xmYeP
— Jay Yarow (@jyarow) June 29, 2020
"On March 1, 2016, McClendon was indicted on a charge of conspiring to rig bids on energy leases in Oklahoma. McClendon died the following day, the single occupant in his Chevrolet Tahoe that smashed into a concrete viaduct at nearly 90 mph." https://t.co/Eyb88gtsf9
— JimmyShelter (@shelter_jimmy) June 28, 2020
The United Steelworkers, the largest U.S. industrial union, filed a suit in federal court to reverse the weakening of a safety rule implemented during the Obama administration. The Chemical Disaster Rule aimed to reduce risks and improve safety at chemical plants.The Chemical Disaster Rule set stricter requirements in place for chemical plants. The measure followed an explosion in 2013 in a West, Texas fertilizer plant that killed 15 people, including 12 firefighters. The blast injured many more and damaged more than 500 homes.
In January 2017, before President Donald Trump assumed office, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced several changes to risk management plans companies submit to the EPA. These included requiring more analysis of a company's safety technology, more third-party audits, incident investigation analyses and stricter emergency preparedness mandates.
After President Trump took office, a coalition of chemical and energy industry groups, including the American Chemistry Council and American Petroleum Institute, submitted a petition to the EPA to delay and reconsider the Obama-era amendments.
The new rule, finalized in November 2019, eased requirements that chemical plant owners consider safer alternatives to various technologies, obtain third-party audits to verify compliance with accident prevention rules, conduct root cause analyses following incidents, and disclose certain information to communities about their operations. The new rule also delayed the dates of implementation of provisions on coordination with local emergency services and emergency situation exercises.
The new rule comes two years after the EPA sought to suspend the rule. In March 2018, a federal judge reinstated the rule.
At least five members of the choir and orchestra at the Dallas megachurch visited by Vice President Mike Pence this weekend tested positive for the coronavirus in June, @BuzzFeedNews found. https://t.co/S6Wrg2aRnE
— Texas Observer (@TexasObserver) July 3, 2020
Houston bartender says she was fired after tweeting about undisclosed #COVIDγΌ19 + staff at her restaurant https://t.co/RV1bdpere7 #HouNews
— Forever in debt to your priceless advice. (@PDiddie) July 2, 2020
These are places in Houston with confirmed positive COVID staff members who have been closed down. I'm posting other city's in Texas with the link that I found in this thread pic.twitter.com/ekY3sdMQ3u
— liquor bae bev (@theroyalbadness) June 24, 2020
Long-sought HPD narcotics audit shows sloppiness, lack of oversight, and hundreds of errors https://t.co/JVkj3UeXuO #hounews
— Matt Schwartz (@SchwartzChron) July 2, 2020
Just before George Floyd was killed in Minneapolis, Houston police shot and killed six people in five weeks. https://t.co/DC0pdfgcsE
— Texas Standard (@TexasStandard) June 29, 2020
Also note Houston spends 35% of their budget on Police. That's higher than most cities... https://t.co/vvEniz6WLr pic.twitter.com/xe4FWYMEYE
— Ashton P. Woods (@AshtonPWoods) June 27, 2020
Texas' anti-riot act snared a trio of women who said they were peaceful protesters of the police brutality suffered by the late #GeorgeFloyd. Then, the women sued. @MilesMoffeit on @TexasStandard https://t.co/YepnlH7psm
— Dianne Solis (@disolis) July 2, 2020
Some say removing Confederate markers and memorials are an attempt to erase history.
— Texas Standard (@TexasStandard) July 1, 2020
But, as our commentator @WFStrong notes, many of those monuments themselves try to erase history: https://t.co/An8iP4yv4P
"To be Latino is to constantly try to make sense of the contradictions flowing in our bloodlines, following centuries of mixing and the legacy [that] relegated black and indigenous bodies to the lowest rungs of society." Great article by @catrcardenas. https://t.co/1CsjM5gkhs
— JosΓ© R. Ralat (@TacoTrail) June 29, 2020
Rudolfo Anaya, ‘godfather’ of Chicano literature, dies at 82 https://t.co/CepISeALyR
— Laredo Morning Times (@lmtnews) June 30, 2020
Here's a nifty Thursday morning Texas history read for y'all: a nice article regarding pirate Jean Lafitte's three years on Galveston Island.https://t.co/jFCJ7x0pp7
— Traces of Texas (@TracesofTexas) July 2, 2020
Senility is becoming an overt line of attack for the first time in a modern U.S. presidential campaign.[...]
As President Trump ramps up insinuations that his general election rival is doddering, Joe Biden turned the tables on Tuesday, saying Trump “doesn’t seem to be cognitively aware of what’s going on” with his own briefings about Russia and U.S. service members.
At the same news conference where he took a swipe at Trump, Biden was asked by a reporter if he has been tested for cognitive decline.
- "I've been tested and I'm constantly tested," Biden responded, adding that "I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I'm running against."
- A Trump campaign Twitter feed played back the clip and asked, "Did Biden take a cognitive test? What were the results? Why is he getting frequently tested?"
Same here. How much Adderall do you think will be ingested between Trump and Biden just before each debate?
— Captain Jingle Pants π»πΉπ¦Ί #DemExit #VoteGreen (@CptJinglePants) June 30, 2020
Trump. Biden. Either way we're fucked.
If we're all going to be fucked, might as well go out with a clean conscience. That's why I'll #VoteGreen. https://t.co/blmwsT9jUn
On a scale from ”number of delegates Kamala has” to ”number of 13 year olds Joe Biden groped” how likely are you to vote 3rd party in November?
— π₯πΉ πΌπ₯π€π‘π‘π€ π΄π©- King of ANTIFA (@realCEOofANTIFA) June 29, 2020
.@DarioHunter2020's accusations of impropriety - from @dbcgreentx https://t.co/Q0SGF8n2Yp #VoteGreen #VoteGreenNoMatterWho @GreenPartyUS pic.twitter.com/WhLQMHgtHG
— Forever in debt to your priceless advice. (@PDiddie) June 30, 2020
I invite you to RT or reply to this post, tagging one friend, family member or colleague in it who you think might be interested in learning about my independent campaign for POTUS & my vision to build a nation where We the People truly means #AllThePeoplehttps://t.co/spASviDNUW
— Mark Charles 2020 (@wirelesshogan) June 30, 2020
I hope this message finds you well. These past few weeks have been a sobering reminder that the pandemic is still very much with us with skyrocketing Covid-19 cases and it will be a factor throughout the rest of the campaign. Despite this, Donald Trump and Joe Biden have begun holding public and in-person campaign events.
Our campaign, however, is holding to our core stance - we value life. Therefore, we have made the decision to not hold any public, in-person campaign events in the foreseeable future. Voting is essential, but public, in-person campaigning is not. We are living in the 21st century. Most Americans have access to computers, smartphones, internet, television, radio or newspapers. And during a global pandemic, without a vaccine, political candidates certainly can find creative and safer ways to get our political messages out.
Because of this, we will not be collecting signatures in-person to get my name on the ballot in various states. Here is a summary of our current Ballot Access Plan:
We are currently collecting signatures electronically and remotely in the states of Illinois, North Dakota, Alaska and Utah.
We are making plans to begin remote/electronic signature collection in the states of Connecticut, New Jersey, Tennessee, and Washington.
We are raising money to pay a fee to get on the ballot in the states of Oklahoma ($35,000), Colorado ($1,000) and Louisiana ($500).
We are also planning to file paperwork to get on the ballot in the state of Vermont (no signatures or fee required).
I will not be on the ballot, nor can I be a write-in in the states of New Mexico, Florida, Arkansas, Hawaii, Nevada, South Carolina and South Dakota.
In the remaining 32 states I can be a write-in candidate.
This is great news because it means that people will have the opportunity to vote for me in the General Election in 40-44 states!
First 100 Days Plan and other Policies
We are in the midst of unveiling a new policy on a weekly basis. We began two weeks ago with a plan for our first 100 days in office to remove the racist, sexist and white supremacist language from the US Constitution. A draft of the Constitution that contained our proposed edits that we plan to submit to Congress immediately after my inauguration is available here along with a one-page summary of this proposal. Last week we discussed the issues of women’s and LGBTQIA2S+ rights. And this week, leading into the 4th of July, we are discussing Indigenous rights and the Doctrine of Discovery. In the coming weeks, watch for policies regarding human rights, the environment, voting reform, and the economy.Fundraising:
June 2020 has been our best fundraising month to date. As of today we have raised $15,430. We are deeply grateful to everyone who has donated to and supported our campaign. These additional funds have allowed us to bring on more staff, invest more in content creation, promote our campaign and set money aside to pay fees for ballot access.Looking forward,
we need to pay the fees to get on the ballots in OK, CO and LA within the next 5 weeks. None of these states allow write-in candidates, so paying the fee is crucial to get on the ballot.
We also have identified some additional staffing needs for our communication team.
We would love to raise an additional $4,700 today bringing our June total to $20,000. And then by raising $50,000 in July, we could cover the fees in these 3 states as well as meet our staffing and other regular campaign expenses. Can you help us meet these goals?
I am hopeful as we move into the final months of the campaign. The pandemic along with the recent, and horrific examples of racial injustice have tapped a desire in our nation to break out of the status quo and make some real changes. The Republicans are running with an extremely divisive candidate while the Democrats have nominated a mediocre candidate. But our platform is growing because our message for fixing the foundations is resonating with Americans who really want change. And our vision for building a nation where We the People truly means #AllThePeople will be a compelling option on November 3rd.
The conservative Life and Liberty Party held its first national convention this past Saturday on Zoom, as reported at American Third Party Report. It nominated party chairman J.R. Myers of Alaska for president and professor Tiara Lusk of Idaho for vice president. According to the party’s website, it is currently on the ballot in Arkansas and is attempting to appear on several others.
Myers, who was the Idaho Constitution Party’s vice presidential nominee in 2016 and the Constitution Party’s nominee for governor of Alaska in 2014, founded the party as an alternative to the Constitution Party, which has been plagued with infighting. According to Politics1, the Idaho, Oregon, Alaska, Virginia, South Dakota, Texas, Illinois, and Indiana chapters of the Constitution Party have all disaffiliated from the national party. The Alabama, Mississippi, and West Virginia chapters are reportedly considering disaffiliating as well. The North Carolina and South Carolina affiliates are currently mulling whether to nominate a candidate other than the Constitution Party’s 2020 presidential nominee, businessman Don Blankenship. Politics1 believes some of these parties may ultimately give their nominations to the Myers/Lusk ticket.
"The sectarianism on the Left is exhausting and so incredibly time-consuming if you allow yourself to engage in that sort of bullshit."https://t.co/LAdBhEzkWj
— Common Dreams (@commondreams) June 28, 2020