Sunday, October 06, 2019
Friday, October 04, 2019
The (now twice a week!) Twenty Twenty Update
Excerpting Markos again because blind hog, acorn.
The Elizabeth Warren-Bernie Sanders wing of the party continues to tally a combined total in the mid-50s [in the Daily Kos bi-weekly straw poll], just as it has for months. Joe Biden seems to have gotten a slight sympathy or rally-around-the-flag bump in some outside polling, but we don’t see much of that here. Everything else is pretty much on-the-dot from last week. The only somewhat notable difference is Andrew Yang, but all that means is that his fan club is getting better at spamming this poll.
Kindly observe that when anyone besides his chosen one so much as slightly improves, their supporters are "spamming" his poll. When his favorite wins, it's a reflection of the intelligence of the online community he has built.
While 60,277 votes is a lot, and close to our record high, the static results to suggest a pause in analyzing the presidential field as Impeachment rages. It would make sense, while all these candidates are presumably out and about and campaigning, it’s hard to care overly much about it as the news out of DC is so relentless and meaningful. We are witnessing history in real-time, and there’s plenty of primary campaign left to wage. We can take a break from that and focus on the more immediate threat.
But the question then becomes, does this set the field down in stone, benefiting Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, or is it temporary? Heck, we don’t even know for sure right now whether this is a Daily Kos-only phenomenon or one that is reflecting the outside world as well.
A glance at Real Clear Politics would answer this.
Yet, while we can’t answer all those questions just yet,
LOL. From here I'll provide corrections in [brackets].
Yet, while we can’t answer all those questions just yet, it is clear that Warren has locked down about 2/5th of the vote on this straw poll, as she’s been at that level for two [three, actually] months now. Can something knock her down? That’s always within the realm of possibility, but she’s running a picture perfect campaign [thanks to MSNBC, CNN, and now her own Snopes]. Talking to campaigns, she has the best organization in Iowa and Nevada [debatable]. She’s got home field advantage in New Hampshire [false; essentially all three front-runners can make this claim, which is why the polling gyrates wildly]. She’s lagging in South Carolina, by quite a bit, but she has started to make inroads with the Black vote (her biggest weakness, by far) and in national polling, is approaching 20% of that vote.
Warren's been cruising. She made a punishing crackback block on Jacob Wohl yesterday on top of what has been a very good month of September. So where are those fundraising numbers?
Sanders’ mid-teens here is the same mid-teens he’s seeing in national polling, a sort of frustrating purgatory for him. It’s enough to keep him in third place (and even some seconds here and there), but that number reflects his hardest-core base of support. He’s shed much of the 40-45% he had last cycle (and over 60% he had on Daily Kos!), with no real idea how to grow beyond that [laughably false]. Saying “I thought of that first!” isn’t a winning strategy. Because first of all, someone thought of it before him, inevitably (liberalism has been around for a long time), and second of all, most people care about the movement, not any one individual. [Tacky and incorrect.]
If Sanders was the best messenger and vehicle to enact those policies, he’d be doing better. It’s that simple.
Most of this graf is spite, but there is no denying that Bernie engenders a lot of animosity, so Kos' remark at the end is, unfortunately, accurate.
Meanwhile, Biden doesn’t appear to be losing much of his Black support. His resilience with that vote has proven frustrating to a lagging Kamala Harris (who is retooling her campaign, one that, uh, didn’t have senior staff meetings until last month), But no one loves him or his campaign, he doesn’t draw crowds, his advisors keep him as hidden as possible to avoid the next inevitable gaffe, and his 1980s-era campaign and message are increasingly out of sync with modern today’s zeitgeist. A strong Harris [or Cory Booker] would’ve been a better bet to knock him down, taking his base of support away. Her inability to do that has given Biden extra life.
Here are three good reasons why Biden is no longer the front-runner. It's really no mystery why the core Democratic vote, African Americans, has stuck with him so long; they roll with the establishment, always. I saw this personally in 2008, when black Texas Democrats in the primary continued to favor Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. See if you think Perry Bacon at FiveThirtyEight explains it pretty well; I think he does.
Buttigieg can raise money ($19 million this last quarter), but it’s not translating to support. Not sure how it can, when he’s going around being a jackass and declaring himself the Next Joe Biden, as if that’s what anyone outside of Wall Street is clamoring for.
Boot Edge is by far the worst of the top five. Beto has had enough of Petey's BS.
How could you call mandatory buybacks a “shiny object” in front of March For Our Lives? pic.twitter.com/wSg6ItQT2K— Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) October 3, 2019
"I was really offended by those comments," O'Rourke told reporters after a gun control policy forum in Las Vegas on Wednesday. "And I think he represents a kind of politics that is focused on poll-testing and focus-group-driving and triangulating and listening to consultants, before you arrive at a position."
To this I might add: "Congressman Pot, please meet Mayor Kettle."
Let's move on to the debate
The DNC has made it progressively harder for presidential candidates to qualify for the primary debates. Here are the requirements for the upcoming debates and which candidates have qualified, so far. https://t.co/owAJSRvQXH— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) October 2, 2019
We know already that the twelve above will appear together on one evening: Tuesday, October 15, live on CNN's various platforms. That's too crowded. This debate should have been split over two nights. My feeling is that the DNC is trying to shield Biden from prolonged exposure.
(Rant: I find it ridiculous that a guy can raise $10 million fewer dollars -- using big-donor fundraisers -- than his third-place rival taking only small donations, have his eye spontaneously bleed during a debate with no one calling for him to drop out ... and still be considered the front-runner for the nomination. "Because that's what the polls say"? The polls that ask a few hundred people with landlines who answer their phones? Those polls?
And this is the best way we have to survey American political opinion in 2019. /rant)
Here is a closer look at the five candidates who have made some polling progress for the Nov debate, but have not yet qualified:@AndrewYang - 3/4@CoryBooker - 3/4@TomSteyer - 3/4@BetoORourke - 1/4@amyklobuchar - 1/4— The Debate Tracker (@TrackerDebate) October 3, 2019
This will focus on the critical areas for each candidate.
Read ^^this Tweet thread^^ for more.
Now for some quick hits.
-- Once again, as of this morning:
NEWS: Joe Biden announced his campaign raised $15 million in the third quarter at a fundraiser in Palo Alto. That number puts him $10 million behind Sanders and $4 million behind Buttigieg. Warren has yet to announce her fundraising totals. https://t.co/XzHN7Xa2GH— Tyler Pager (@tylerpager) October 3, 2019
The unfortunate timing of the upcoming Democratic debate will likely deprive voters some much-needed answers to the unsavory fundraising ties of leading candidates.https://t.co/sClnebEO7Z— American Prospect (@theprospect) October 3, 2019
-- Biden, still not getting it.
(Biden) telegraphing that he plans to attack his rivals on the debate stage for a lack of transparency into their finances. Biden is expected to go after Sen. Elizabeth Warren in particular, Bloomberg reported, for failing to disclose details of private income during the 1990s and 2000s from the types of companies that she now lambasts for “rigging the system.”
Warren, as a law professor, did consulting work for private companies that involved her bankruptcy expertise, including advising Dow Corning in 1995, involving a major settlement with women harmed by breast implants. Warren has released her tax returns dating back to 2008.
Biden may be looking to hammer her for hypocrisy, but his charge of a lack of transparency is badly undercut by his own financial opacity -- not decades ago, but in the last two years. Since leaving the White House, Biden, long proud of his wealth ranking near the bottom of the U.S. Senate, began delivering high-dollar speeches to well-heeled clients and raked in book revenue that elevated him well into the upper class. He earned some $15.6 million in the last two years alone, according to financial disclosures released by his campaign.
WATCH: Elizabeth Warren Once Claimed She Had 'Lots of Pictures' Reflecting Native Heritage, Refused to Show Them https://t.co/E4Tw0cv7Am— Mediaite (@Mediaite) October 1, 2019
-- One of the worst things about a truly bad Kamala Harris campaign is that the even more awful puppeteers manipulating her strings are soon going to have to pick another shitty candidate. My bet is on Boot Edge.
SCOOP: Former John Delaney campaign manager @jkvdavis and former Delaney comms director @willismcdonald have both officially cut ties with the campaign— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) October 1, 2019
-- A Heart Bern update.
— mike casca (@cascamike) October 3, 2019
Someone had Tweeted -- and I had reTweeted -- that he had been released yesterday from the Las Vegas hospital that performed his stent procedure. That, reported by the Fox affiliate in that city, appears to be false, given the information above.
If it's not Trump, we're gonna beat Mike Pence.— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) September 30, 2019
-- The Guardian profiles Mark Charles.
Thursday, October 03, 2019
Turner's challengers roast him in #HouMayor debate
Corruption, flooding, crime dominate first TV mayoral debate https://t.co/4hX92QS224 via @HoustonChron— Jasper Scherer (@jaspscherer) October 3, 2019
Mayor Sylvester Turner’s opponents came out swinging at the first televised mayoral debate of the election, accusing him of mismanaging a pay dispute with Houston firefighters, slow-walking flood recovery and overseeing a culture of corruption at City Hall -- charges the mayor emphatically denied.
With his opponents criticizing him on nearly every question, Turner defended his approach to the firefighters’ push for pay parity with police and said the sluggish pace of Hurricane Harvey recovery largely stems from delays within the federal government.
On the corruption allegations, pushed most aggressively by Tony Buzbee, Turner said the millionaire lawyer and businessman -- who is self-funding his campaign -- is “trying to buy City Hall.”
The mayor then issued a fresh attack, criticizing Buzbee for an incident in which a federal judge removed Buzbee’s law firm from 85 cases involving a judge who maintained close ties with Buzbee and his law partners.
You can watch that exchange here:
"I really didn't wanna go here, but since you're talking about public corruption..." - @SylvesterTurner responds to @TonyBuzbee's claims about city contracts. Then Buzbee responds by mentioning the mayor's $95K internship. https://t.co/9JfIctE19U pic.twitter.com/4SddCHETd6— ABC13 Houston (@abc13houston) October 3, 2019
Update: You can view the hour-long debate here. For a few short video takes, see here.
I did not get the sense that Turner or Buzbee, the polling leaders, helped themselves last night. Bill King and Sue Lovell looked and sounded more 'executive', shall I say. And I'll posit that any Democrats inclined to consider not voting for Mayor Sly might feel better about a Dwight Boykins or a Lovell vote after watching ... unless they are of that scared variety of Donkey that doesn't want to see two Republicans in the runoff.
In other words, a vote for Turner being sorta like a vote for Joe Biden.
As for the remainders and their lawsuit ... *ahem*
Though 12 candidates are running for mayor, a moderator said the host networks -- ABC 13 and Univision 45 -- narrowed the field to the top five fundraisers: Turner, Buzbee, King, Boykins, and Lovell. The state of the race has recently come into sharper focus with a poll that found Turner leading the field with 37 percent of the vote, followed by Buzbee at 20 percent and King at 10.
As I mentioned back here, I'm still deciding between Lovell and Derrick Broze. I have a few more weeks to choose.
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
"Sorry to disappoint..."
Sorry to disappoint billionaire Trump adviser Steve Schwarzman — but @BernieSanders still exists and is doing just fine after a routine medical procedure: https://t.co/pz6SJA8a1G https://t.co/pf2LPrAPK3
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) October 2, 2019
we can rebuild him
— 🌐IPM 🎃🕷️🦇💀👹👻 (@IPM_HQ) October 2, 2019
we have the technology pic.twitter.com/uo1Pjdj5XN
Twenty Twenty Update: Money Matters
The mother's milk of consultants, spinmeisters, pollsters, and those that love them has the punditocracy all squirming for a teat this week.
But maybe we should consider impeachment first?
Indeed the tide and the sea has changed, quickly, and continues to do so even as this is blogged. And we'll wait to see if the next debate spends too much time talking about it, at the expense of -- in my and Ted Rall's opinion -- more important topics.
-- With respect to Cory Booker and Julian Castro, the two candidates who threatened to leave us last week if they didn't meet their cash targets ...
So the "Going Out of Business" sale will last at least another thirty days.
Psyche, all you Castro donors.
-- Something's Berning.
Somebodies don't like it.
Have we had enough of that?
-- That's enough obsessing over filthy lucre for me, but let's note this.
Also note that all these people are Jewish, and we're in the middle of the High Holy Days.
I just don't have any words.
-- Happening today:
Note that the times listed are Pacific. Underneath this is a tweet from Mark Charles requesting inclusion, and another listing the Libertarian potential nominees. I'll leave that to your discovery.
-- Should we be surprised?
Another update on Friday, with more on the next debate.
But maybe we should consider impeachment first?
Americans are about evenly split over impeaching President Donald Trump and removing him from office, as support for that move has risen among independents and Republicans, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after the announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry by House Democrats last week.
About half, 47%, support impeaching the President and removing him from office, up from 41% who felt that way in a CNN poll in May. The current level matches the high point for impeaching Trump in previous CNN polling -- 47% said they felt that way in September 2018.
New CBS poll:— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 29, 2019
55 percent of Americans -- a solid majority -- approve of the decision to open an impeachment inquiry.
And a plurality, 42-36, say Trump deserves to be impeached over the Ukraine matter.https://t.co/51DRxi602r pic.twitter.com/eD8LenhrLk
Indeed the tide and the sea has changed, quickly, and continues to do so even as this is blogged. And we'll wait to see if the next debate spends too much time talking about it, at the expense of -- in my and Ted Rall's opinion -- more important topics.
-- With respect to Cory Booker and Julian Castro, the two candidates who threatened to leave us last week if they didn't meet their cash targets ...
(Booker) raised more than $6 million over the last three months, with a third of that coming in the past 10 days after he warned he would have to drop out of the Democratic presidential race if he didn't take in more cash by Monday's fundraising deadline.
Despite that flood of money, Booker says he still needs more. His campaign is pressing donors to contribute $3 million in the month of October alone to help cover a budget they predict will surpass $7 million for the final quarter of the year.
So the "Going Out of Business" sale will last at least another thirty days.
"I think that was unfortunately hyperbolic writing in a fundraising email."@JulianCastro's CM @MayaRupert shot down reports that it'll be the end of Castro's campaign if he doesn't qualify for the November debates https://t.co/cWPnNX3z3Y via @CBSNews— Alexandra Samuels (@AlexSamuelsx5) October 1, 2019
Psyche, all you Castro donors.
-- Something's Berning.
Amazing job, @BernieSanders supporters:— Tim Tagaris (@ttagaris) October 1, 2019
🐦 More than $25.3 million raised this quarter
🐦 From 1.4 million donations
🐦 All grassroots funded. No begging powerful people for money at closed-door fundraisers
A lot of people counted you out. But they should not underestimate us
Somebodies don't like it.
Bernie raises $25.3 million, more than anyone of any Qtr.— Working Class 👩🏿🏫 👷🏼♀️ 👨🏻🍳 👨🏽🔧 (@net_enforcer) October 1, 2019
MSNBC can't handle it.
On-screen graphic shows $24.3 million
Talking head says, "24 million"#MSNBCisFOXNEWS pic.twitter.com/ntTuan8B4a
These stories are one day apart. pic.twitter.com/fswinigRog— pete buttigieg is a republican (@proustmalone) October 1, 2019
Bernie raises an extraordinary $25.3 million in the 3rd quarter of a crowded primary, while neoliberal darling Pete Buttigieg only raises $19.1 million. You'd think that @MSNBC would be hard-pressed to spin this, but no. They just lie. #FakeNewsIsReal pic.twitter.com/PrjcEZUilN— elaine layabout is bro residue (@elainelayabout) October 1, 2019
Nate Silver is a joke 😂 https://t.co/rkbwZe4bTc— David Doel (@daviddoel) October 1, 2019
Have we had enough of that?
Biden hasn't revealed his # yet but he told donors in LA last week he had 670k donations at $46 — which would translate to only $10.8 million in Q3.— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) October 2, 2019
But but but: Biden campaign official says that not "full picture."
So what is?
Campaign wouldn't say.https://t.co/GXUhjxnvYn
-- That's enough obsessing over filthy lucre for me, but let's note this.
Schwarzman is worth $17 billion.— Warren Gunnels (@GunnelsWarren) October 2, 2019
He would pay over $1.1 billion more in taxes under Bernie's plan to tax the extreme wealth of the top 0.1%.
Schwarzman also compared Obama to Hitler when he tried to close the carried interest loophole. Disgusting.https://t.co/2NKYrJIMc8 https://t.co/YLAUKpzFW3
Also note that all these people are Jewish, and we're in the middle of the High Holy Days.
This is why so many hard working, honest people are afraid to challenge real power in our country. #Bernie2020 is getting closer, & tonight @blackstone CEO Stephen #schwartzman made a not so subtle threat on his life. This is BEYOND unacceptable & should not be tolerated. Period. https://t.co/g44a4r8ot1— Jen Perelman (@JENFL23) October 2, 2019
I just don't have any words.
-- Happening today:
Here’s the lineup for our #2020GunSafety Forum with @GiffordsCourage & @MSNBC:— March For Our Lives (@AMarch4OurLives) September 30, 2019
10 AM PT @PeteButtigieg
10:30 @JulianCastro
11:00 @CoryBooker
11:30 @ewarren
Break
1:00 @JoeBiden
1:30 @BetoORourke
2:00 @amyklobuchar
2:45 @BernieSanders
3:15 @AndrewYang
3:45 @KamalaHarris
Tune in!! pic.twitter.com/3EMYsqXmYh
Note that the times listed are Pacific. Underneath this is a tweet from Mark Charles requesting inclusion, and another listing the Libertarian potential nominees. I'll leave that to your discovery.
-- Should we be surprised?
Dems seek lobbyist cash to fund Milwaukee convention— Daniel (@UvKLvr47) September 30, 2019
Ugh, this article does not make me love our power elites anymore... revolting bunch of entitled pricks... https://t.co/xwcbU3wpA5
Another update on Friday, with more on the next debate.
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