Sunday 'Tough Calls' Funnies

News item: Rice University professor under investigation for role in 'world's first gene-edited babies'

The Weekly Wrangle

Alongside the Cyber Monday roundup of lefty blog posts and news from a short week last, the Texas Progressive Alliance can't decide between turkey tetrazzini leftovers or turkey enchilada leftovers, so we're going out to rake the forest.

Lisa Gray at the Chron wrote a moving pre-obituary for Houston activist and civil rights icon Ray Hill last Tuesday, whose heart ultimately did give out on Saturday.

Update: Funeral services are scheduled for Sunday, December 2, on the steps of Houston City Hall.

The event will feature speakers, including former mayor Annise Parker, and six honorary pallbearers -- two felons, two police officers. and two Alcoholics Anonymous members.  But after, according to Hill's end-of-life caretaker Amy Morales, there's a free-for-all open mic in Hermann Square.

The passing of Houston Texans owner Bob McNair on Friday, and his complicated legacy as both philanthropist and Trump Republican, prompted this cogent Tweet from Evan Mintz of the Chronicle.

The deaths of Ray Hill and Bob McNair create an interesting juxtaposition about what it means to contribute to society

— Evan the Maccabee (@evan7257) November 25, 2018

Reflecting on the 20th anniversary of the Transgender Day of Remembrance last Monday, Lou Weaver from Equality Texas pondered the resistance of the '-isms'.  And Texas Standard covered the US Department of Health's proposed changes to the definition of 'sex', observing the challenges added to being trans.

Early voting in the December 11th special election to replace US Representative-elect Sylvia Garcia in the Texas Senate begins today for voters in #SD6.  State Representative Carol Alvarado gets the endorsement of the Chron, three former Houston mayors, and several past and current elected officials, while state Representative Ana Hernandez has collected endorsements from Houston mayor Sylvester Turner, many of the labor unions, and the Area 5 Democrats club.

In ongoing Beto O'Rourke developments, PDiddie at Brains and Eggs adapted the opening line of Hamlet's soliloquy for his blog post title while predicting the now-former Congressman's political future, and Off the Kuff analyzed his performance in Harris County.

In more Election 2018 recaps, Mean Green Cougar Red had a few belated, shallow post-election thoughts.  Thankfully, David Collins had a deeper analysis, congratulating ranked-choice voting on its victory for Democrats in Maine, and waits to see if any of the Donkeys who saw their candidate win because of RCV will thank the Green Party for the idea.  (Don't hold your breath, Dave.  As with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez bringing the Green New Deal to the attention of the House Democratic Caucus as a way to begin to address the existential threat of climate change, Democrats who eventually get on board will find a way to take all the credit.)

Meanwhile in Deep-In-The-Hearta, the recent concern is less about the dangers of fossil fuels to human existence and more about the threats to the state's economy.

Many Texans may be paying attention to the stock market right now, as energy companies continue to lead a downward charge. In fact, the energy sector worldwide lost about $1 trillion in value during a 40-day period that began in early October, reports the Houston Chronicle. This means some energy companies may have a difficult time borrowing money, and hiring and retaining employees. For tens of thousands of Texans from Houston to West Texas, this impacts job security, retirement plans and confidence for buying homes, cars and holiday gifts.

James Osborne, energy reporter in the Houston Chronicle’s Washington bureau, says the market decline is simply due to plummeting oil prices.

“Production around the world has been pretty high lately,” Osborne says. “There’s a lot of expectation with Iran sanctions going back into place that oil would come off the market and it seems in some countries, producers were anticipating that and getting ready for it, but that hasn’t really happened. The Trump administration handed out a number of waivers to different countries so they could continue to import Iranian crude. There’s just a lot of oil on the market right now.”

Oil and gas companies have started to pump more oil out of the ground to maintain profits as supply grows and prices drop.

“That’s been the pattern again and again,” Osborne says. “When they get in these sort of situations they tend to get as much oil out of the ground as they can as long as they can. They’ve sort of been on shaky financial ground for a while, spending far more money than they’ve been taking in. They have been reigned in a bit by Wall Street lately. There was some concern that they were sort of overspending and could get themselves into a bubble situation.”

And the Texas Observer reports on how the Koch brothers' free-market utopia operates its refineries in Corpus Christi.

Socratic Gadfly noted that Thanksgiving Day was November 22 this year, and reminisced about a previous Thanksgiving anniversary visit to Dealey Plaza and other things Kennedy and Camelot.

Grits for Breakfast took the Houston Chronicle to the woodshed over its 'Distracted Driving' series.  It's a recurring theme, as Scott Henson was one of the few who critically examined the scandal behind the scandal of the Chron's firing of Austin bureau head Mike Ward over sources that could not be verified.

Andy Hailey at The WAWG Blog wants to know if, as a progressive, he is too extreme. 

Jeff Balke at the Houston Press identified five social media trends he didn't see coming.

Bryce Hannibal at the Rivard Report wants us to be more mindful of food waste.

Harry Hamid picks up his story again at 2 a.m.

And Julia Jones from Texas Monthly suggests a few places across Texas for you to celebrate the Christmas holidays.

To Beto or Not to Beto *Update*

(Get 'em while they're hot if it's your thing.)

*Update, Monday 11/26.

"Amy and I made a decision not to rule anything out." 

O'Rourke's wife, Amy, said that the couple has not spoken with any political strategists, and said that the possibility of her husband running a presidential campaign was flattering and “scary.”

“To me that just seems like you have to give up so much,” she said, according to the Washington Post. “I don’t know if this is a line that I or we really want to cross.”

Asked if his position on 2020 is different than it was before the November election, when he said he would not run for president, O’Rourke said, “Yeah, yeah it is.”

======================

Original post:

Beto for president?

"I will not be a candidate for president in 2020," the El Paso congressman told MSNBC. "That's I think as definitive as those sentences get."

Let's take him at his word, despite the fact that he has already won the media/political consultant 2020 primary.  Recall that he hired none of the body politic's parasites despite his $70 million haul, $38 million of it in the third quarter.  He can't run for president and do that again.

Let's review his comments from the CNN town hall in late October, which to my reading addressed both potential future bids for public office (italic emphasis is mine).

When the question (of a 2020 presidential run) was put directly to O’Rourke during a CNN town hall last month in the Rio Grande Valley, a crowd made up mostly of young college students cheered wildly. O’Rourke’s response was purposely brief:

“The answer is no,” O’Rourke said, citing strains of public life on his wife and three young children. “It’s a definite no.”

Pressed by CNN host Dana Bash as to whether “no” meant “never,” O’Rourke seemed to put a potential expiration date on his promise not to run for president.

“Let me put it this way,” O’Rourke said, “I promise you, and most importantly to the people of Texas, that I will serve every single day of a six-year term in the United States Senate.”

Then, making a not-too-subtle comparison to (Ted) Cruz, who launched his White House bid half-way through his Senate term, O’Rourke added, “I won’t leave the state to go run for president.”

“If I don’t win,” the three-term congressman added, “we’re back in El Paso” — his home town.

Beyond what may have been campaign fatigue doing the talking, a presidential campaign runs on very different terms than a Senate one.  One example would be the opening shots fired by the now-eclipsed Castro twins, running to O'Rourke's right for the crossover Republican in the 2020 D primary vote.  Or something.

While party leaders were urging Democrats to remain focused on healthcare, taxes and other pocketbook issues, O’Rourke was calling to impeach Trump and abolish the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, putting him at odds with even would-be political allies.

“I know right now people think of ICE and they think of immigration and removal, but ICE also does things like enforcing human trafficking laws,” Rep. Joaquin Castro, another rising star in Texas’s Democratic circles, said in a recent interview. “We’re not going to just do away with all those other functions.”

(Sidebar: Both Castros, the Congresscritter quoted here and his brother, the one with the actual White House dreams, are no longer rising stars but stale, burnt toast.  Their overly-cautious x 10 approach to running for something statewide -- being too afraid of losing political viability by risking electoral defeat -- lost them their credibility with Texas Democrats tired of waiting around on them.  And their misreading of the political tea leaves of Team Donkey this year was a yuuuge opportunity cost; they waited so long for their Raza to turn out that they missed the bus.  Julian's meager political capital accrued as Obama's HUD secretary has expired, like the milk pushed to the back of the fridge.  Beto O'Rourke ran them both off the road and into the bar ditch, and they're still waiting for a tow truck.  The state's corporate media, the only thing keeping them inflated now, ought to be ready to move on in favor of some of the fresher, bolder flavors of the month.)

So ... Beto for Senate 2.0?  Wise guys have pointed out that all those yard signs had no date on them, after all.  I say look again at what he said about family.

(T)hose close to O’Rourke say his denials are sincere. The congressman spent the better part of the last two years away from his wife, Amy, and their three kids as he traveled the dusty backroads of Texas. A friend said the separation had weighed heavily on O’Rourke, particularly in the final weeks, and that he genuinely had no appetite or deep ambition to embark on a campaign that would take him away from his family for another two years.

In an emotional moment on his livestream as he raced around the state in search of the last few votes, O’Rourke spoke of how much he missed his wife. He said he was dreaming of the moment where he could just sit down with a cup of coffee with her in their backyard and not have to be anywhere. 

Those with the candles still lit for him will point to his thank-you email to supporters a few days after the election, about enjoying his family's company but "already miss(ing) the road".

So ...?

My humble O:

Beto 2018 was lightning in a bottle, a perfect storm.  The phenomenon of O'Rourke's fresh appeal and somewhat unique campaign (at least for Texas), combined with the almost universal disgust of his opponent, allowed him to leverage nationwide Obama-like free media coverage and force-multiply his fundraising to Bernie Sanders proportions.  Though he managed consistently close polling results throughout the year, he never had one by a credible source showing him in the lead.

As the race moved into the Indian summer homestretch, Cruz finally pulled together a serious effort to hold on to his seat, and the polls revealed his small lead growing.  Then ...

Trump came to Houston to stump for Cruz in a pep rally of what appeared to be immense proportions and intensity.  But it had the opposite effect on our Senate race; the Texas polls tightened, with Trump's national approval ratings tanking as Election Day came closer.  Then the swollen early turnout numbers started coming in, and gradually we learned that across every demographic, Democrats -- Latin@s, millennials, and women, especially suburban women who had previously voted GOP -- produced the same kind of surge (or backlash, if you prefer) that had given Republicans a boost from the Kavanaugh confirmation.  That outrage by liberals, which temporarily enhanced the fortunes of conservatives, petered out (sorry) because it did not happen late enough in the tempestuous '18 cycle.  Go to this TexTrib link for their take on the last few weeks (scroll to the 7th graf from the bottom if you don't want to read the whole thing).

I just don't think this scenario can be re-created for Beto, certainly not a Castro or anybody else in 2020.  Red rural Texas saved the day for Ted, as everyone knows.  Anybody taking on Cowboy John in two years has to run better, harder, faster, stronger, with even more than $70 million and maybe even some hired help plus get a few more lucky breaks than Beto did this year.  Awfully tall order.  Cornyn ain't Cruz and Trump might be in jail, ya know.

But Beto is telling his closest pals that everything is on the table, so there you have it.  I think he marks himself as Just Another Egotistical Politician if he does.  Run, that is.

With respect to 2020's White House sweepstakes: if Trump faces a primary challenge from John Kasich he probably still wins but goes into November two years from now even more of a wounded, snarling animal than he is now.  And that presumes Nancy Pelosi means what she says about impeachment, which sort of means Mueller has less than everybody believes.  Even if it's President Pence, Democrats should have a better than even shot at taking back the White House ... unless they nominate a geriatric milquetoast like Biden, or some identity politician working both sides of the street but sweeping up nothing, like Kamala Harris or Cory Booker.  I am not enthused about Liz Warren or Bernie any more, either.  They can't pull the centrists, moderates, Hillbots and assorted shitlibs in behind them to win.  Those POS would rather see Trump win again than vote for a progressive or a so-called socialist.

On the whole, methinks Beto makes a better running mate for almost every other Democrat who would be president save Bernie or Biden.  And -- to allow them some redemption -- there might even be a place for a Castro with either of those in order to keep the Lone Star State's 38 electoral votes in play, forcing Repubs to play defense.  That might be the one thing that actually jeopardizes Cornyn; Beto or a Castro running against him while the other runs as veep.  That's a similar recipe to 2018's down-ballot blue wave, with the fortunes of those at the top of the ticket inconsequential to the success of the Congressionals, statehouse, and courthouse candidates.

Twenty-twenty is not just a presidential year and a census year but a year in which Texas will be electing a legislature that will be drawing the lines for three new Congressional districts, to be filled in 2022.  So more than just the usual 'most important election of our lifetime' will be at stake.

All of those US and Texas House seats that were barely won (and some that weren't) plus these Texas Senate chairs (scroll to line 36 to identify).  As far as the US Senate goes, there are only a handful of pickup shots for the Blues: Maine (Susan Collins), Colorado (Cory Gardner), maybe AZ, NC, IA.  They don't need many to flip the Senate, but they won't get John Cornyn's unless Texas gets another perfect storm.  Since we get 500-year storms every year now, I suppose it could happen.

Can O'Rourke do it his way again and get a different, better result in a presidential cycle?  Does he want to do it all over once more, just to be the guy that everybody else thanks for helping them get elected?  Can a Castro or Beto get picked veep, setting the table for the Senate nominee and positioning the Donks to flip the state blue just in time for redistricting?

Trump says: "we'll see what happens".  There's your very early line, courtesy me.

Sunday Thankful Funnies