Thursday, June 16, 2016

Texas Dems prepare to underwhelm once again

The key to happiness is low expectations, some philosopher once said.

Statewide races on the 2016 ballot are lackluster: a no-contest Railroad Commission faceoff -- better options with the Green candidate, just as with the Ag Commissioner's race in 2014 -- and a few high civil (SCOTX) and criminal (CCA) court justices we mentioned in December last, in the spring and we'll mention again in October.

More than 75% of those gathering in San Antonio this weekend (Update: John says it's 65%, and he's on site) will celebrate the crowning of the presumptive nominee despite her accumulating baggage, and they'll exercise the same old tyranny of the majority over the 25% 35% left-wing.  The Berners should be easily abused because apparently their plan is to to lie down and take it.  Oh well, San Antone is still a great place to fiesta.  Who wants to sit in a convention hall when you could be drinking margaritas on the Riverwalk, anyway?

Drumpf is going to Bigfoot the state conclave with fundraisers and rallies in Dallas today and the Alamo City and H-Town tomorrow, sucking all the media oxygen out of the state.

Charles can still find a few small things to dream big about; good on him for his PMA.  Most of the so-called party leaders are more pragmatic, however.

And to some portion of the 25% of Texas Democrats who didn't vote for Hillary -- not to mention the half of the state's adults who are not registered to vote, and the 80+% of those who are who didn't participate in the primary -- it just doesn't look like much difference.


When it comes to thinking in binary: I have observed that the stronger the support one has for Hillary, the less this premise can be comprehended.  But at least that makes more sense than voting for Clinton in the primary because of 'the Supreme Court'.

This will be the first convention in ten years that I have actively boycotted, despite being granted both Sanders delegate and media credentials.  (I guess Sarah Slamen was right; some people don't read this blog after all.)  I'll still be following whatever action there is on social media, but I don't expect much.  Housing Secretary Julian Castro, once-presumptive vice-presidential nominee (or is it brother and Congressman Joaquin?  Or is it both?) will be keynoting, and the rest of the agenda looks primed to be knockout gas.

I kid because I care, Texas Dems.  Get your shit together for 2018.

Update: Worse than I suspected.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Another view of the Electoral College

Pretty much the same view as the previous ones.


No matter the 2016 presidential matchup after the primary campaigns, the Democratic nominee was likely to have an edge over the Republican candidate once the election turned toward the November race.
In the past six presidential elections, 32 states and the District of Columbia have voted solidly Democratic or solidly Republican. If none of that changes this year, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would start out with 242 electoral votes — just 28 shy of the 270 she needs to win.
The GOP candidate would start out with just 102, if that trend were to hold. And if presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump won Arizona, Montana and the seven Southern states that voted Democratic only when Bill Clinton was on the ballot, Trump would be up to only 180 electoral votes.
That leaves 116 votes in 10 states. As always, Florida becomes crucial.
If Trump can win nine of those 10, he still would lose, unless Florida is among his victories. Clinton can lose nine of those 10, but if she wins Florida, she would move into the White House come January.

After the San Bernardino shootings, Drumpf gained in the horse-race polling... for the GOP nomination.  And he has also done so -- slightly -- in the wake of Orlando.  FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten says not to read too much into it; the Republican primary electorate is quite obviously not the general election one.  And Clinton has otherwise bitten into Trump's lead among male and Caucasian voters.  Polling released next week will tell more, but he simply has no ground to lose.

If you're still nervous about the Queen's November prospects after reading this, be consoled with the takeaway, again: National polls are not the Electoral College.

And if you're #NeverTrump or #NeverHillary, you'll have at least two other choices in Texas -- Green and Libertarian, no indies -- and also in roughly forty other states in the Union to express your disgust with the D/R options that would be much more effective than a hashtag.  The candidate foreordained to win your state -- and/or the White House -- won't be affected in the slightest.  So vote your conscience, your principles, or your values; just don't vote for the status quo.  That's how we got to this sorry state in the first place.

And it's exactly why they take your vote for granted.

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

A Muslim terrorist... or a closeted, self-loathing gay man?


Who might have had some daddy issues, who beat his ex-wife, and who was investigated by the FBI for terrorist sympathies but whose case was ultimately dropped?

The gunman who attacked a Florida LGBT nightclub had attended the club before the attack and had used a gay dating and chat app, witnesses said.

Kevin West, a regular at Pulse nightclub, said Omar Mateen messaged him on and off for a year before the shooting using the gay chat and dating app Jack’d.

But they never met – until early Sunday morning.

West was dropping off a friend at the club when he noticed Mateen – whom he knew by sight but not by name – crossing the street wearing a dark cap and carrying a black cellphone about 1 a.m., an hour before the shooting.

Orlando gunman used gay dating app, visited LGBT nightclub on other occasions, witnesses say:

At least four regular customers of Pulse, the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender nightclub where the massacre took place, told the Orlando Sentinel on Monday that they believed they had seen Mateen there before.

"Sometimes he would go over in the corner and sit and drink by himself, and other times he would get so drunk he was loud and belligerent," said Ty Smith, who also uses the name Aries.

He saw Mateen at the club at least a dozen times, he said.

"We didn't really talk to him a lot, but I remember him saying things about his dad at times," Smith said. "He told us he had a wife and child."

He physically abused his former spouse; his father was a minor-league crackpot.

FORT PIERCE, Florida — Years before he shot up an Orlando gay club in what became the largest mass shooting in American history, Omar Mateen regularly picked up lunch from a drag queen at Ruby Tuesday. He may have even gone to see a drag show or two, a former high school classmate told The Daily Beast.
About 10 years ago, Mateen, a few years out of high school, was working at the supplement store GNC. Samuel King, a year ahead of him in high school, was working next door at the restaurant chain. Mateen was a few years out of playing football in high school while King, who is openly gay, had long, flowing extensions, and prettier hair than most of his female co-workers.
“He always had a smile on his face,” King told The Daily Beast on Sunday. “Maybe it’s because he was working in customer service.”

Ex-wife: Mateen had 'gay tendencies', used dating app Grindr

Former classmate says Mateen was gay


So do you draw 'jihadist' from this?  It appears the FBI did not consider him a menace to society, despite their attempts yesterday to cover their asses by saying he was 'radicalized'.  Conservatives are religiously avoiding using the G-word to describe Mateen but have rushed to judgment on 'Islamist terrist', and are vigorously defending their 'Raght to Keep N Bare', both of which are the most predictable of responses.

What if Mateen was just conflicted, awkward socially, a little strange, someone who was mocked as an adolescent and who became resentful and socially -- ultimately socio- and psychopathically -- dysfunctional as an adult?  What can we do for a person like that (besides not letting him buy guns)?  Maybe 'love IS the answer', but it seems as if Mateen had that externally... but not internally.


I'll save any more shade-tree psychology for additional facts to come out, but IMHO we still need some sane Republicans demanding sensible gun safety legislation.  The GOP electeds just won't listen to anybody else.

Update: Amanda Marcotte picks it up and adds the GOP critique.

Stupid things allegedly smart people say, RNC convention edition

(This is Part Two, Part One was here.)

"How the GOP could Dump Trump in Cleveland":

Do we think that the Republican Party will ditch presumptive nominee Donald Trump at its convention in July and select someone else to replace him — a notion that seems to be catching on among conservatives and commentators in the wake of Trump’s controversial remarks about the Mexican-American judge overseeing his Trump University suit?
No, we do not.
And yet, if there were ever an election weird and wild enough to make such a switcheroo possible — just barely — 2016 would be it.
Cleveland is a long way away. A lot can happen between now and then. So what would have to happen to make “Dump Trump” a reality?
To give our fellow convention fanatics something to fantasize about for the next 40 days, Unconventional has assembled a step-by-step instruction manual for dumping Trump. If any of these steps are skipped, the whole chain reaction fizzles out. But if every one of them is completed, there is still a chance — a very, very slim chance — that Donald Trump won’t be competing against Hillary Clinton in fall.

Tenuous and ignorant premises out of the way early; on to the jokes.

Step One: Trump keeps saying offensive stuff
Trump has said plenty of objectionable things since launching his campaign last summer: the Mexicans-are-rapists thing, the John-McCain-isn’t-a-war-hero thing, the Muslims-should-be-barred-from-entering-the-U.S. thing, and so on.
But the Judge Curiel-can’t-do-his-job-because-he’s-of-Mexican descent thing is the first toxic thing that Trump has said since becoming the GOP’s presumptive nominee. The content may be similar, but the context is very different. Before, during the primaries, Republican leaders could brush off Trump’s remarks. He’s not my candidate, they could say. Maybe the voters will still reject himAnd if not, he’ll probably grow up in time for the general.
Back then, Trump didn’t represent the GOP. Now he does. So now whenever Trump says something offensive, other Republicans have to choose: Do I defend this? Or do I denounce it? Hiding isn’t an option anymore.
As we’ve seen over the last week, the risk of guilt by association has dramatically lowered the GOP’s tolerance for Trump’s most distasteful remarks.
“ ‘Bigot, bigot, bigot. Racist. Racist Racist,’ ” said influential conservative talk-radio host Hugh Hewitt Wednesday, recapping the morning’s headlines. “The Republican National Committee needs to step in and step up, and go see Donald Trump and tell him to get out of the race.”

Hugh Hewitt bailing out is hugeYuuuuuuuuge

Step Two: Trump’s poll numbers plummet
Right now, Trump is trailing Clinton by only 3.8 percentage points, on average, in the general-election polls. That’s reasonable. To be expected. He’s still “well within striking distance,” as they say.
But what happens if Trump’s numbers go into a free fall and Clinton starts to pull away? What if she crosses the 50-percent threshold and he plunges into the 30s? What if the gap between them widens — to five points, 10 points, 15 points?

Somebody else who does not understand how the Electoral College works.
This is key. 
This is not key.  Popular vote percentages -- you know, the same ones that Berners use to say that Sanders should be nominated over Hillary because he beats Trump -- might be the excuse the GOP uses to try to defenestrate their popularly elected nominee, but most DC electeds understand that's not how a president gets chosen.  And the EC numbers are grim already.

The major problem with dumping Trump is political It looks like GOP elites are conspiring to deny the will of GOP voters — the most galling offense imaginable in a year that’s been all about the voters denying the will of the elites.
But Trump’s plummeting poll numbers would provide objective evidence that actual voters agree with party leaders that he’s gone too far. The GOP would start to fear a down-ballot disaster. More Republicans would jump ship. Combined with a series of Curiel-like controversies, a sickening slide in Trump’s public-opinion stats might establish a new anti-Trump argument that doesn’t ask rank-and-file Republicans to reject the nominee just because establishment types like Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio are doing it: Trump had his chance. Now he’s tanking — and he’s taking the party with him. 

So if you were wondering where Ted Cruz has been all this time ...

Step Three: Someone else steps up

Mitt Romney refused. Ben Sasse begged off. James Mattis said no sir. Even David French — a bald, bearded conservative lawyer that no one had ever heard of — decided against it.
You can’t fault the #NeverTrump movement for lack of effort. But so far, Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol and his anti-Donald cronies have been unable to convince anybody to take on Trump.
For the whole “Dump Trump” scheme to work, this would have to change. As Curly Haugland, a member of the convention Rules Committee from North Dakota, recently told the New York Times, “In order to have a contested convention, we need to have contestants.”
Some Republican politicians are starting to signal their interest in a convention challenge. As Yahoo Senior Political Correspondent Jon Ward reported (last) week, conservatives are increasingly mentioning Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as a “possible replacement.” RedState reported (a week ago) that there are “rumors” that Walker is “open” to such an outcome. One of Ward’s sources said that Walker, who mounted a brief bid for the 2016 GOP nomination, has told those working to find an alternative that he would be willing to step up at the convention if Trump continues to implode.
The likeliest substitute, however, would be someone who can already claim considerable support among the convention delegates. Ted Cruz comes to mind. Right now, he has 559 delegates to Trump’s 1,542. But remember: Many of the delegates now pledged to Trump were loyal to Cruz (or some other candidate) first.
For his part, Cruz has kept his options open, refusing to endorse Trump and suggesting that if he sees “a viable path to victory” in the future, he “will certainly respond accordingly.”
“I am looking and listening and watching the candidates,” Cruz told CNN earlier this week. “I’m doing the same thing millions of voters are doing and … time will tell.”

"Now for the fun part", the piece continues.  I'll pass; you go on ahead.  Hint: the GOP/RNC has to rewrite their rules.  How many Trumpeters do you think will take that lying down?

Go back to the top and read the part where they wrote, 'if any of these steps are skipped, the whole chain reaction fizzles out'.  And then read this again: 'But if every one of them is completed, there is still a chance — a very, very slim chance — that Donald Trump won’t be competing against Hillary Clinton in fall.'

No.  Just no.  And it has nothing to do with guns, or responsible gun safety legislation (which is the third rail of GOP political viability).

Sorry you had to waste five minutes reading all that.  I just document the atrocities, folks; I can't really influence them too much.

Monday, June 13, 2016

How you know Bernie's already conceded

This Weak with George Snufflelufagus may have been pre-empted in your market for coverage of the Orlando tragedy, so if you missed this, take note.


The Vermont senator also plans to meet with Clinton Tuesday to press her to embrace his progressive agenda.

On ABC's "This Week" Sunday, Sanders said he and Clinton will discuss "if she wins, what kind of administration she will have."

"What I need to see [is] a commitment that there will be progressive taxation," Sanders said.

"Will she go as far as I would like her to go? No, she won't," he said. "But I think millions of people want to understand and see is what kind of commitment she has to addressing the real crises in the country." 

Sanders is done, y'all.  Fought the good fight and all that happy horseshit, but now he's tired and he wants to go to bed.  All that's left to negotiate is his severance package.  Vice-president?  I doubt it.  Senate Majority Leader?  Kinda laughable, to say nothing of that blogger's command of the English language.

Some party platform BS, BS?  Yeah, he'll take that.  A tax increase, though?  In the words* of Hillary Clinton, 'you gotta be shitting me, old man'.

Over to you, Bern Unit.

*Paraphrasing slightly.

Whose fault is it again?

It was the worst act of terrorism on American soil since Sept. 11, 2001, and the deadliest attack on a gay target in the nation’s history, though officials said it was not clear whether some victims had been accidentally shot by law enforcement officers.

It's a hate crime against gays.  No, wait: it's radical Islamist terrorism -- and that means it's Obama's fault; after all, he sort of predicted it less than two weeks ago, AND Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both said so.  They're probably not altogether wrong about that, either; is this sick enough for you yet?  I just hope the president doesn't say "that's not who we are", because it's precisely who we are.

“Appreciate the congrats for being right on radical Islamic terrorism,” (Drumpf) wrote. “I don’t want congrats, I want toughness & vigilance. We must be smart!”

'Smart' is just not going to be possible for you and your ilk, Don.  Ever.  What's your Plan B?

I'm still #FuckTheNRA, personally.

The vast majority of guns used in 16 recent mass shootings, including two guns believed to be used in the Orlando attack, were bought legally and with a federal background check. At least eight gunmen had criminal histories or documented mental health problems that did not prevent them from obtaining their weapons.

Go ahead take a look, then filter it through the reality of the same old politicos posting the same meaningless #ThoughtsandPrayers on their social media accounts while they deposit another check from Wayne LaPierre.  Keep in mind that, like Dan Patrick, some people believe their thoughts and prayers were answered when more than a hundred Latinos/as, many of them LGBT, were struck down by bullets early yesterday morning.



As an atheist, my question is: why do you want to worship such a god as that?

Want to read more Tweets like that one above?  Here you go.

Not bothered enough yet?

Some Hillbots thought it would be primo to take a shot at Bernie Sanders over his gun policy.  And some Sandernistas fired right back with a full clip at Hillary:

“This is the deadliest mass shooting in the history of the United States and it reminds us once more that weapons of war have no place on our streets.”
But those “weapons of war” have been used on the streets of Iraq and in midnight raids on the civilian population in the war there that Hillary so ardently backed.
Does she even grasp what she is saying?  She is saying that it is an atrocity to use such weapons on Americans – but not on the brown people, civilians in their homes, in Iraq and throughout the greater Middle East and North Africa in U.S. wars of aggression and the occupation.   To be horrified by the use of those weapons on Americans but not on Arabs qualifies as racism of the basest sort.

Not ugly enough for you yet?  Want more?

Sorry but I can't take any more.  Here's some Onion-style satire, this is my stop.

ORLANDO, FLORIDA (The Nil Admirari) - Today, a number of Americans and corporate news outlets were not intentionally being sarcastic when they described the latest mass shooting in the United States as "unbelievable" and "shocking."

"This is unbelievable. This kind of thing never happens in the United States," said Mandy Hammer, who awoke this morning from a coma she had been in for over fifty years.

The corporate media in the United States routinely used the word "shocking" to characterize yet another mass shooting in America, which boasted a historic body count.

Maxwell Keene, a Harvard University English professor, told TNA he was unaware of changes to the English language that would make either word appropriate to use.

A press release by the National Rifle Association informed Americans more guns would fix the epidemic of gun violence in America.

Congress confirmed any meaningful gun control remained hopelessly out of reach.​