Turner and King move on, HERO falls, some incumbents in trouble

Winners:

-- Sylvester Turner and Bill King.

Hats off to Bob Stein, who called it early and kept whipping it until it hit the wire.  Adrian Garcia coming in third has to be something of a moral victory, but a shallow and short one.  He's mostly a loser this morning: unemployed by choice, with a horrible mess left at his last gig that a nasty Republican isn't interested in cleaning up, and a soiled reputation as a lousy manager and lousier politician.  I wouldn't want to be him or any of his supporters, who are feeling more sour than anybody after last night.

What the mayor's race is telling you:  Ben Hall's black support -- and some of Sylvester Turner's as well -- put the blade through HERO's heart.  It won't mean much for the runoff unless Sylvester makes an issue of it.  He didn't say much about it in the general and I doubt he says much in December.  If he does, he'll leak support to King, who will certainly be saying all of the worst things Republicans usually say in order to win elections.

-- Among At Larges and incumbents: Kubosh, Stardig, and Greg Travis join Dave Martin (all Republicans) as a solid red wall on Council next year.  Mike Knox and Bill Frazer in the controller's office look to join them; they both lead their races going into the runoff.  Among the Blues: Jerry Davis, Ellen Cohen, Robert Gallegos, David Robinson, and Amanda Edwards showed the most strength.  But incumbents Mike Laster, and Richard Nguyen even more so, need help to return to the horseshoe.

The To-Be-Determined-in-Decembers:

-- Richard Nguyen versus Dr. Steve Le in District F:  After defeating the Republican incumbent two years ago, Nguyen switched parties and became a Democrat in 2014.  That appears to have drawn the ire of the conservative Vietnamese in this far-west district, who have Le in the lead after the first round.

-- Karla Cisneros versus Jason Cisneroz in District H:  My choice was "Z"; Campos and the Chronicle picked "S".  You may remember a comment here pointing out Karla is a stealth Latina.  Runoffs are all about turning out your vote, so let's see how it goes.

-- Mike Laster versus Jim Bigham in District J:  In this bathroom election cycle, Laster was bound to draw some haters and get forced into a runoff.  He could have done worse with the odious Manny Barrera but he gets Bigham instead.  Bigham's got a good ground game so Laster will be pushed hard.  He'll need all the help he can get from HGLBT Caucus and other progressives to return to council.

Mike Knox versus Georgia Provost in At Large 1:  As I wrote in my early advance for this race, Provost had a chance to prevail based on her business connections and her previous run for council.  Heavy black turnout lifted her into the runoff, and I'll be curious to determine where she stood on HERO and whether that factored into her support.  Knox, the archtype Republican Hater Caucus member, is going to benefit from King and Frazer up the ballot turning out R's to help his bid.  The question in my mind is where do the old white Democrats go for this faceoff: to Provost or back on the couch.  The city's alleged base voters need a reason to vote in this one.

Update: Provost was under my radar as a HERO hater.

If Provost can earn the endorsements of the also-rans -- Tom McCasland, Lane Lewis, Jenifer Rene Pool, Chris Oliver -- and if she has the ground game, then she can take this seat from its soft Republican termed-out council member, Steve Costello.

Update: I question whether Lewis and Pool, at the very least, will be endorsing Provost.

David Robinson versus Pastor Willie Davis in At Large 2.  Once more, if the Black Bigot Caucus wants to turn out next month and flip a seat from blue to red, they're going to have give it all they've got.  Robinson should have all the resources he needs to hold his seat.

Amanda Edwards versus Roy Morales in At Large 4.  This ought to be a cakewalk for Edwards; it's the so-called 'black at large seat" on council; she was far and away the best choice in the first round, and the woman who could have been her nemesis in a runoff, Laurie Robinson, just missed.  So she draws Morales, who's lost more runoffs than I feel like counting right now.

Jack Christie versus Sharon Moses in At Large 5.  Christie has perennially been the weakest At Large incumbent during his duration on council, and his luck may finally run out with the qualified Moses taking him on in round two.

Update: As with Provost, Moses ran a stealth campaign, whispering that she was against the ordinance to her base vote.  They'll probably turn back out in a month to support Turner, Provost, and Edwards.  At least she should hope.

Bill Frazer versus Chris Brown for Controller.  In many ways this will be the race to watch next month, as the two powers draw all of their supporters and assets for a final holiday showdown.  Frazer was a strong challenger to a wounded incumbent two years ago and Brown is a legacy.  Both men will raise and spend a lot to try to win.  It's going to come down, as usual, to whether Democrats will show up and support their candidates.

Losers:

HERO of course; Mayor Parker, who leaves a legacy unfinished; my candidate Chris Bell and the moderate Republican Steve Costello, a host of good Democrats in AL1 and a handful of lousy ones (and some perennials and Republicans, too) scattered elsewhere, like Adrian Garcia and Ben Hall, Griff Griffin in AL1, Manny Barrera in J, Eric Dick and Andrew Burks in AL2, and the foul-smelling Carroll Robinson in the controller's race, who got way too many votes from rubes and dupes.

More after I rest some.

Houston and Harris County election returns *updates*

This template from two years ago worked pretty well for me, so here we go again, with updates through the evening.

The first returns posted are for early votes cast prior to Election Day and flashed to the harrisvotes.com website after 7 p.m.  The first Election Day tallies will be posted after that, and the closest races below will be updated, with the previous numbers appearing as a strike-through.

State propositions 1-7 (from the TXSOS website):

1.  80% For, 20 Against
2. 89-11
3. 64-36
4. 70-30
5. 81.5-18.5
6. 76-24
7. 81-19

Harris County propositions:

1.  73% For, 27 Against
2.  63-37
3.  61-39
4.  74-26

-- City of Houston propositions:

1. (HERO) 38% 39% For, 62% 61% Against
2. (Term limits) 63% 65% For, 37% 35% Against

A smashing victory for hate and bigotry in this city.

-- Houston Mayor (major candidates, alphabetical order):

Chris Bell 6.16%  7.41%
Steve Costello 6.5%  6.72%
Adrian Garcia 13.14%  17.14%
Ben Hall 10.47%  9.5%
Bill King 26.3%  25.27
Sylvester Turner 34.88%  31.32%
All others: 2.65%
Undervote: 2.19%  2.88%

Marty McVey, at 0.54 % of the EV, was outperformed by the Vietnamese candidate, Nguyen Thai Hoc, who doubled him up with 1.04%.  At 8:40 p.m. Chris Bell conceded, followed by Steve Costello.  Adrian Garcia is rumored to be doing the same at 9 p.m.  Late update: Note that the 2.88% undervote exceeded the total of all votes for the seven also-rans (2.65%), including McVey.

Final: It's Turner and King next month, as the poli-sci profs guessed.

-- Houston City Council District A (contested races only listed):

Iesheia Ayers-Wilson
Brenda Stardig (i) 85.52%  84.3% (with a 18.8% undervote)


-- District B:

Jerry Davis (i) 69%  53.3% with the same percentage of undervotes as A)
Vince Duncan
Isaac Mayhorn
Kenneth "KP" Perkins
Ben White Jr

-- District C:

Ellen Cohen (i) 66%  67.93%. Undervote in this district tops 1 out of 5 voters, at 21.3%.
Carl Jarvis
Michael McDonald

-- District F:

Kendall L. Baker 24.86%
Steve Le 36.56%  40.38%
Richard Nguyen (i) 38.57% 34.09%

The tightest contest of the night pits the Republican-turned Democratic incumbent against his fellow Vietnamese challenger.  And it turns ominous for Nguyen, as he finishes the first round trailing Le.  Fewer undervotes here, under 16%.

-- District G:

Sandie Mullins Moger 49.01%  48%  49%
Greg Travis 50.99%  52%  51%


It's a dead heat in this Republican district for the right to replace Oliver Pennington.  As late returns (after 9 p.m.) come in, Travis begins to ease away.  The largest number of undervotes recorded in a district race was here: 22.49%.

-- District H:

Roland M Chavez 22.68% 22.29%  21.85%
Karla Cisneros 33.77% 35.29%  34.99%
Jason Cisneroz 23.46% 22.47%  24.3%
Abel Davila 19.92% 19.98%  19.86%

In this Latino district, Chavez and Cisneroz are neck and neck for the runoff against Cisneros in December.  And Cisneroz prevails, and will face Cisneros in December.  Just over 20% undervoted this race.

-- District I:

Robert Gallegos (i) 59%  57.29%
Herlinda Garcia

One of Council's best members stiff-arms his anti-Hero opponent. About 16.33% of the district's voters did not cast a ballot.

-- District J:

Manny Barrera 21.04% 20.70%  20.78%
Jim Bigham 18.51% 20.08%  21.17%
Mike Laster (i) 45.64% 43.99%  43.62%
Dung Le 14.8% 15.24%  14.42%

The anti-HERO candidate Barrera -- or Bigham -- looks to push the incumbent Laster into a runoff. And the late returns push Bigham into second, with the runoff between he and Laster coming in December.  Here the undervote was just above 17%.

-- Houston City Council At Large 1:

M. "Griff" Griffin 11.68%
Mike Knox 26.97%  24.75%
Lane Lewis 11.6%
Tom McCasland 11.89%
Chris Oliver 11.34%
James Partsch-Galván 3.2%
Jenifer Rene Pool 7.55%
Georgia Provost 15.78%  14.81%

Provost leads for second place and the runoff, with Republican Knox at the front and four more -- Griff, McCasland, Lewis, and Oliver all chasing her 4,000 vote lead.  Late update: And that's how it finishes, with Knox and Provost in the runoff.  28.56% of the 268,000 Houston municipal elections voters picked 'none of the above'.  That was good for first place.

-- At Large 2:

Andrew C. Burks Jr 14.87%
Willie R. Davis 23.97%  22.5%
Eric Dick 20.23%
Moe Rivera 8.69%
David W. Robinson (i) 32.24%  32.6%

In the clearest sign on the ballot that African American HERO haters turned out their vote, the incumbent will be a runoff with their chosen candidate Davis, eliminating attorney Dick (who finished second in the mayor's race two years ago to Annise Parker) and the former incumbent of AL2, Burks, finishing fourth.  There was a 31% undervote in this contest.

-- At Large 3:

Michael Kubosh (i) 64.42%  60.22%
John Christian Bullitt LaRue 6.51%  8.01%
Joseph McElligott 5.06%  6.31%
Doug Peterson 24%  25.46%

The fat man skates.  A nice showing for the Green, McElligott, who lost his own party's endorsement, and a poor showing for the progressive Democrat Peterson.  Another indication that black voters chose an anti-HERO Republican over two lefties and a center-righty (Bullitt LaRue).  One third -- 33.09% -- of the city's voters skipped this race, the most of any.

-- At Large 4:

Larry Blackmon 5.43%
Amanda Edwards 36.57%  34.93%
Jonathan Hansen 2.98%
Roy Morales 14.03%  16.9%
Matt Murphy 9.38%
Laurie Robinson 16.64%  16.42%
Evelyn Husband Thompson 14.97%  13.44%

The perennial Morales and the NASA widow Husband Thompson trail Robinson for the right to face Edwards in the runoff.  Late update: And Morales comes from behind to overtake Robinson and qualify for December against Edwards.  A total of 28.35% of all votes picked no one here.

-- At Large 5:

J. Brad Batteau 10.12%
Jack Christie (i) 48.66%
Sharon Moses 22.46%
Philippe Nassif 18.76%

The incumbent hopes for late returns to avoid a runoff with attorney Moses.  Late update: But they don't.  Here is Houston's best chance to knock out a Republican incumbent next month.  Once more, nearly one of three voters, or 32.34%, pick 'none of these'.

-- Houston City Controller:

Jew Don Boney 11.05%
Chris Brown 23.06%  24.92%
Bill Frazer 34.13%  31.35%
Dwight Jefferson 3.38%
MJ Khan 14.16%
Carroll G Robinson 14.22%

The easiest race to predict on the night.  22.89% cast no vote at all for the city's top accounting post.

Last thoughts before Election Day (maybe)

-- Kuff's Sunday morning post about voter turnout for Houston's elections is definitive, the best last word before Tuesday night.  He blew up the newspaper guy's numbers, paid homage to the paid politicos for their turnout prediction, and gave us HEROes a little glimmer of hope.  Surely not all Republican voters are hateful bigots, after all.

My takeaway?  Thirty-five thousand people voted last Friday, or about 18% of the 194K total.  That's kind of ridiculous.  That may be as many people as vote on Election Day proper.  I'm conflicted about hoping it's greater or smaller turnout tomorrow, because the conventional wisdom -- that high turnout aids the liberal side --  is flipped on its head this cycle.  The evidence suggests that the cons may have more to celebrate tomorrow night.  Old and white and Democratic has been the typical muni voter; how much will that meme change after we see what happens Tuesday night?

If that Republican vote already in the can is not monolithically anti-; that they, possibly more than some Democrats, see the threat to the city's business interests beyond lost major sporting events and conventions with a defeat of HERO, then we don't have to feel gloomy about the outcome.  Even kingmaker douchebags like Gary Polland and Terry Lowry seem to get that.

The most interesting thing to me is that while Big Jolly has harped on bathroom fears -- he knows better; he's just a cheerleader for the team -- he and others have attacked their own party chair, Paul Simpson, for saying Ben Hall was for HERO before he was against it.  The current chairman of the Harris County Republican Party is being shat upon for a sidebar argument, while the guy he defeated, Jared Woodfill, is out in front of the Hate Parade.  (Rumor has it he wants to be state party chair, and a win on Tuesday greases those skids.)

If there is some significant percentage of the swollen turnout in the conservative boondocks voting for Steve Costello and 'yes' on HERO, and some similar minority vote (no pun) among the high black turnout casting ballots for Ben Hall and 'no', maybe the poli-sci professors have oversold Bill King's prospects.  (Remember that the last poll conducted two weeks ago essentially found a four-way tie for second place.)  But if Sylvester Turner's voters are voting no on HERO, then we can surmise the ordinance has already lost.

The historical election data that supports the premise that Democrats are also homophobes comes from 2005, when just under 18% of the state's voters approved the Texas equivalent of DOMA with 76.25% of the vote.  In Harris County it was 72.5%.  That was more than just a solid Republican bloc codifying marriage discrimination into the state's constitution.  Tolerance has come a long way in the decade since -- mostly thanks to the SCOTUS ruling last summer -- but still has a long way to go here in Deep-In-The-Hearta.  We're about to find out exactly how far.

So in the post-election analysis I will be looking for evidence that a high percentage of Houston black Democrats voted 'no' on Prop 1.  (I would define 'high percentage' as a number at or above 33% of the total.)  You may recall that HBAD made no endorsement of either of the city's ballot propositions but did endorse the anti-HERO Republican incumbent in At Large 3 over three progressive candidates.  IMHO, and certainly absent a big turnout on Election Day in District C and Meyerland and other inside-the-loop, Caucasian-heavy Democratic precincts, that -- how the African American votes went for and against -- is where the ordinance's fate will turn.  Turner came in second to Chris Bell on my ballot for a very small number of reasons, the main one being the state representative's relatively late conversion to marriage equality.  If Turner's electorate puts him in the runoff but also helps knock down the ordinance... is he accountable for that?  What will the HGLBT Caucus say publicly if that should happen?  That the mayoral candidate they endorsed brought voters to the polls that killed HERO?

Update: At this blog's Facebook page, Noah Horwitz has called my attention to this FB post by Kris Banks w/r/t the Turner campaign's talking points on HERO.  So good on them for that.

One more thing, from the Chron link in the first graf:

Former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia also spent $20,000 to advertise in the Texas Conservative Review and City Councilman Steve Costello paid $30,000.

Still think Adrian Garcia is a good Democrat?

-- Worth relinking: these two posts on tomorrow's Texas scorecard, from this morning's Weekly Wrangle... "If Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, and Joe Straus are for it, the rest of us should vote against it".   And why is one HISD trustee candidate attacking another in a way-down-the-ballot race for a job which pays nothing?

And yet another newspaper's opinion on turning down all state props except for 2.

-- There are, of course, other elections going on around the country, and the governorships in Kentucky and Louisiana are the most interesting.  If you haven't been following the Amazing Bayou Tale of Diaper David Vitter's Collapse, it's a novella all its own.  And holding the Bluegrass State's governor's seat is also in the Democrats' reach.  The Daily Kos Elections Digest is a great place to get primed and then to watch the returns come in without turning on your teevee.

Get Your Vote On Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance hopes everyone takes advantage of their opportunity to make their voices heard at the ballot box as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff noted that one way to improve turnout in municipal elections is to hold them in even-numbered years.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos, and contributing to Daily Kos, calls out Republican lawmakers for their cowardice in failing to pass a viable budget that will actually pay for things, in TX Prop 7: GOP asks voters to rob Peter to pay Paul.

SocraticGadfly notes that unless the Clinton Foundation completes a massive accounting cleanup in just two more weeks, Hillary (and the other Clintons) could face a problem far worse than her email server or Trey Gowdy, and that would be the IRS.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants the world to see the 27 immigrant women standing up for themselves at Hutto immigration center.

A few late-breaking developments in Houston's forthcoming elections were posted by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.  And Egberto Willies smells something funny in the attack mailers in a contested HISD race between Dr. Ann McCoy and Jolanda Jones.

Texas Leftist blogged about Sally Field's endorsement of the Houston ERO.

jobsanger quoted a recent Rasmussen poll as indicating that 62% of Americans want government regulation of campaign contributions.

McBlogger linked to the NYT story about the ominous greening of Greenland.  And TxSharon at Bluedaze reminds you to smarten up before the arrival of the Grim Fracking Reaper (not limited to All Hallows Eve).

Neil at All People Have Value took a picture of recent high water in Houston. Everyday life is interesting. All People Have Value is part of NeilAquino.com.

===============

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

The Texas Observer has a moving and emotional photo essay entitled "The Things They Left Behind", which documents the possessions found with immigrants who died while making their journeys.

Trail Blazers reports that there were two Texas holdouts who did not vote for Paul Ryan to be Speaker of the House.

Somervell County Salon wonders why Hillary Clinton is so quick to play the 'sexist' card.

The TSTA Blog ponders the end of the standardized testing regime.

RG Ratcliffe names and excoriates the main climate villain at Exxon.

Carol Morgan notes the transformation of Texas into a Christian theocracy.

Paradise in Hell grades the last week's GOP debate.

Better Texas Blog highlights the second year of modest rate increases for the Texas health insurance marketplace.

Grits for Breakfast asks if Daylight Savings Time all the time would reduce crime.

And Fascist Dyke Motors has the West Gray Multi-Service Center blues.

Sunday Ghoulish Funnies