Thursday, August 07, 2014

What might this mean?

Three months before the midterm elections a record number of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll disapprove of their own representative in Congress – a potentially chilling signal for incumbents that marks the depths of the public’s political discontent.

Could it mean something less in Texas than it does in other states?  My feeling is that much of the effect this data might -- underscore might -- foretell depends on the successful efforts and execution of Battleground Texas.

Just 41 percent in this national survey approve of the way their own representative in the U.S. House is handling his or her job, the lowest in ABC/Post polls dating back a quarter century, to May 1989. Fifty-one percent disapprove – more than half for the first time.

The result, extending a drop from last October, turns on its head the old chestnut that Americans hate Congress but love their Congress member. It also recalls an ABC/Post poll result in April, in which just 22 percent said they were inclined to re-elect their representative, a low also dating back to 1989. Were it not for gerrymandering, these are the kind of results that could portend a serious shakeup come Nov. 4.

The actual impact remains to be seen, given both the few competitive House districts and the low esteem in which both parties are held.

Yes, that.

The grimmest score is the GOP’s: A mere 35 percent express a favorable impression of the Republican Party, a number that’s been lower just twice in polls since 1984 – 32 percent last October, just after the partial government shutdown in a Washington budget dispute; and 31 percent in December 1998, immediately after the impeachment of Bill Clinton.

The Democratic Party is seen favorably by more Americans, 49 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. But that, similarly, is one of the party’s lowest popularity ratings on record in 30 years.

The Democrats’ 14-point advantage in favorability may look like an edge in the midterms, and indeed it may make them less vulnerable than they’d be otherwise. But other elements factor into election math, including turnout, which customarily favors the Republicans; the number of open Senate seats each party has to defend, higher this year for the Democrats; competitive House seats, which as noted are few; the quality of individual candidates; and the presence or absence of an overarching theme that can galvanize voters in one party’s favor, which has yet to emerge.

What it does mean, undoubtedly, is that the public is in an extended political snit.

No.  Really?  More things we did not know (sarcasm)...

Disapproval of “your own representative” peaks, at 58 percent, among Hispanics, perhaps expressing dissatisfaction with the stalled overhaul of immigration policy. Hispanics are particularly negative toward the Republican Party – 65 percent see it unfavorably, while 61 percent of Hispanics express a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party.

Blacks tilt even more heavily pro-Democratic (82 percent) and anti-Republican (81 percent). Indeed, whatever occurs in this year’s midterms, the results among nonwhites overall underscore the GOP’s challenges as whites’ share of the nation’s population shrinks. Seventy percent of nonwhites see the Republican Party unfavorably overall, while about as many, 68 percent, have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party. Whites, for their part, are equally negative about both parties.

Among other groups, as long has been the case, the Democrats are more popular with women than with men. The gap between favorable ratings of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party among men is just 6 percentage points (44 vs. 38 percent). Among women it’s 21 points (54 vs. 33 percent).

Combining race, sex and education shows a longstanding difference in one particular group: college-educated white women, who are much more favorably inclined toward the Democratic than the Republican Party. White women who lack a college degree see both parties equally, and white men are more favorable toward the GOP, regardless of education.

Single women also are a markedly more Democratic-inclined group. But married men tilt heavily in the opposite direction – toward the GOP – and there’s twice as many of them. Of such threads are election strategies woven.

Twice as many married (conservative ) men as single (liberal) women.  That whole War on Women thing?  Guess who's winning.

So my questions are...

-- Does anybody really think that their Republican Congressbeast (mine happens to be the odious John Culberson) is in danger from his challenger -- again in CD-7, the lamest of asses, James Cargas?

-- How about John Cornyn getting knocked off by David Alameel?  Anybody think that stands a chance in hell of happening?

None of these potential upsets seem to be registering in the Texas polling.  Our statewide candidates and their campaigns are enthused, and draw enthusiastic crowds, but data still shows them farther behind than they were four years ago, and eight years ago.

Oh well.  As media mavens, talking heads, and chattering pundits -- not to mention paid political consultants -- keep telling us, "nobody pays attention until after Labor Day".  And what, pray tell, will they suddenly be paying attention to?  Greg Abbott's record-breaking crony capitalism?  Ken Paxton's criminal case?  Mr. Invisible himself, Dan Maddafracking Patrick?  As the seasons turn, is there going to be a mass awakening -- a renaissance of progressive populism -- that suddenly springs forth from the souls of the historically apathetic Texas electorate?  Or maybe an extinction; a massive die-off of conservative freaks in the boondocks?  An unpredicted surge of alternate party voters all across the state, perhaps?

There's a reason why the wealthiest Texans take off the entire month of August and go on vacation in Monaco, or Maine, or Lake Louise.  And it's not just because of the heat or the hurricanes: it's because they've already paid the tab for the November outcome.  They could take the rest of the year off if they felt like it.  But they need to come back to town just to be ready to write another five- or six-figure check at the last minute.

Meanwhile, the unwashed masses are lined up in the 97-degree heat at the Houston Texans practice field, or body-surfing in the flesh-eating bacteria off the coast in Galveston, or just relaxing indoors in front of their 72-inch television watching 'Naked and Afraid'.

You know, to see how the other half lives.  Those poor bastards.  It's good for one's self-esteem to have someone to look down on while you shop on tax-free weekend (stickin' that 8% discount to The Man!) for back-to-school, or pick up that new 84" plasma TV before the college football season kicks off, or even help those high school cheerleaders make prayer banners for the team to run through.

Seems like Texans (not the football team, the regular folks) are going to be awfully busy this fall.  Are we sure they are going to have time to pay attention to the elections after Labor Day?

Update: Prairie Weather with the reasons Democrats should win, but won't.  See?  It's not just me that's a little pessimistic. But Gadfly dismisses the poll's findings almost entirely, which might have been what I should have done to avoid being so sarcastic.

Wednesday, August 06, 2014

Unfinished business

-- First, the proposal before Space City's council today for Uber and Lyft to finally begin operating in lawful manner in the city, with rules and regulations designed especially for them.

In Houston, officials have addressed some of the cab companies' concerns, though not to the satisfaction of taxi drivers and industry leaders. For example, city regulators wrote provisions requiring the companies to have insurance that's effective from the moment drivers log on to accept rides.

Other concerns raised by the cab companies remain unresolved. The rules as proposed allow the new companies to charge when someone doesn't show up or declines their ride, a right cab companies do not have, said Cindy Clifford, spokeswoman for Houston Transportation Company, the city's largest taxi business and parent of Yellow Cab.

Taxi companies also pay property taxes on their vehicles, and Councilman Michael Kubosh has filed an amendment requiring the drivers and dispatch companies to pay taxes as cab companies do.

[...]

After delays of a month and a week for additional study and debate, city regulators made minor tweaks, mostly to address concerns from the disabled community by mandating that 2 percent of vehicles for hire be capable of transporting passengers who are in a wheelchair or who require a lift to get into a car.

The city's delays did not soften the opposition from local taxi companies.

"We are happy to compete in a marketplace with a level playing field," said Clifford. "This is not a level playing field and it is widely unfair."

I really can't identify a single other instance in which a company entered several major US markets, openly flaunted their breaking of the laws by operating without being authorized, and were then approved with a new set of rules created especially for them that were less restrictive than the existing companies they came to compete with.

Can you think of any comparison in American business today?  Because I can't.

Update: Business finished, 10-5 in favor-- with Jerry Davis, Mike Laster, C.O. Bradford, Michael Kubosh and Jack Christie voting no -- and two CMs (one of whom was Dave Martin, opposed to the ordinance) absent.

Update II: Dug Begley, on the morning after, says it's not the end of the discussion.  I agree.

-- Rand Paul didn't finish his hamburger.  He didn't even finish chewing the mouthful he bit off before bolting the Iowa restaurant where he was having lunch with Steve King.  All because of the word "DREAMer".  King stuck around for the conversation though and humiliated himself repeatedly, grabbing the young woman's wrist and saying, "You're very good at English".



Just when you think these wads have gone as low as they can... they dig themselves deeper.

-- Greg Sargent at the WaPo's Plum Line has the stunning development that the GOP has collapsed in terms of its support among women, younger voters, and everybody that isn't Caucasian.  The unfinished business here is this: does it even matter if those folks don't turn out to vote in 90 days?

-- Walgreens knuckled under to the 45,000+ Americans who told them not to relocate their company's headquarters from Illinois to Switzerland to avoid paying taxes.  After that announcement, and for the remaining two hours the American stock market was open... Walgreens' stock got pummeled.

Wall Street just doesn't give a rip about Main Street, people.  Greed is NOT good, Gordon Gekko.  When the top 25 hedge fund managers in America make over $24 billion dollars -- enough to pay the salaries of 425,000 teachers -- something is wrong in America. 

When the wealthiest American family (the Waltons, whose $148 billion net worth is greater than the lowest 40% of the rest of America's) pays their workers subsistence wages and actively encourages them to apply for governmental assistance, something is quite obviously wrong in America.

When the second-wealthiest family in America (Charles and David Koch) contribute vast sums of money to hundreds of American politicians to persuade them to cut public pensions -- the only kind that are left -- and Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid... something is very wrong in the Land of the Somewhat Free and the Home of the Not So Brave.

(Thanks to both Bernie Sanders and jobsanger for the above stats.)

That is not sustainable.  Economically, politically, or morally.

Americans have some business to finish at the voting booth in November.  Whether they are up to the very necessary task of putting the trash out on the curbside remains to be seen.

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Yes Texas, you executed an innocent man

And his name was, as we all know by now, Cameron Todd Willingham.  It has been said repeatedly before.  And most recently now, as a jailhouse stooge confesses -- again -- that he was coerced by the prosecutor in the case to frame Willingham.

A blockbuster report Monday from The Washington Post reveals prosecutors got a jailhouse informant to lie about a capital murder case in exchange for a lighter sentence.
In 1992, Cameron Todd Willingham of Texas was convicted of killing his three daughters by lighting their house on fire. Key to the prosecution’s case was testimony from Johnny E. Webb, who testified in court that Willingham told him how he started the fires. In 2004, Willingham was executed despite serious doubts about forensic evidence. Now, Webb says his testimony was coerced by prosecutor John H. Jackson, who arranged for Webb’s sentence to be lightened and to secure funds for him from a wealthy rancher.

If this behavior had been exposed before Willingham’s execution, he may have been entitled to a new trial. The Innocence Project, a New York-based advocacy group, called for an investigation into Jackson’s conduct, charging he “violated core principles of the legal profession, and did so with terrible consequences ... the execution of an innocent man.”

From the WaPo article.

In taped interviews, Webb, who has previously both recanted and affirmed his testimony, gives his first detailed account of how he lied on the witness stand in return for efforts by the former prosecutor, John H. Jackson, to reduce Webb’s prison sentence for robbery and to arrange thousands of dollars in support from a wealthy Corsicana rancher. Newly uncovered letters and court files show that Jackson worked diligently to intercede for Webb after his testimony and to coordinate with the rancher, Charles S. Pearce Jr., to keep the mercurial informer in line.

Please go read the entire article, complete with an image of Jackson's letter to Webb detailing the efforts to ease his incarceration because of his compliance in the fix.

Along with Webb’s account, the letters and documents expose a determined, years-long effort by the prosecutor to alter Webb’s conviction, speed his parole, get him clemency and move him from a tough state prison back to his hometown jail.

Some more.

...(T)he letters and court files show that Webb threatened to renounce his testimony against Willingham at least twice before. In 2000, he sent a formal motion to recant to the Navarro County District Attorney’s Office that was forwarded to Jackson, but never put in Willingham’s court file or shared with his lawyers.

Jackson — who was elected as a Navarro County judge in November 1996 and retired in 2012 — does not deny going out of his way to help Webb. But in a recent interview he said he did so only because he thought Webb was threatened by other inmates for cooperating with the prosecution. He has described allegations that he coaxed false testimony from Webb as a “complete fabrication.”

In response to a detailed list of questions about his dealings with Webb and Pearce, Jackson last week refused to comment further. Pearce died in 2008.

Oh, and this last part.

Webb’s latest allegations and the other new evidence in the matter could also have implications for the Texas governor, Rick Perry, a strong supporter of the death penalty and a possible Republican presidential candidate.

In 2004, Perry refused to temporarily stay Willingham’s execution despite the report of a leading forensic expert that sharply disputed the finding of arson by a Texas deputy fire marshal. Perry’s administration has also repeatedly undercut the authority of a state Forensic Science Commission, which agreed that the arson finding relied on flawed analysis. Defending his handling of the case in 2009, the governor declared that Willingham “was a monster.”

The Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles, the members of which were all appointed by Perry, voted in March to deny Willingham a posthumous full pardon.

The day of reckoning is surely coming, and not just for John H. Jackson, Rick Perry, and all the rest. The day is fast approaching when we must, by all moral responsibility, abolish the penalty in Texas and throughout this nation.  And it can't come soon enough.

HERO haters fumble, lose

Nobody could have predicted this *snicker*.


Opponents of Houston's new non-discrimination ordinance did not get enough valid signatures to force a November repeal referendum, Mayor Annise Parker and City Attorney David Feldman announced Monday.

"With respect to the referendum petition filed to repeal the 'HERO' ordinance, there are simply too many documents with irregularities and problems to overlook," Feldman said. "The petition is simply invalid. There is no other conclusion."

[...]

Less than half of the more than 5,000 pages opponents submitted were valid, Feldman said, leaving the final valid tally at 15,249 signatures.

The 50,000 sigs the haters bragged about turning in fairly quickly became 35,000 upon cursory inspection, and when examined further it seems that many of the people who signed and collected signatures were neither Houston residents nor registered voters. Just over 15,000 made the cut, which was about 2,000 less than they needed.

Now that's just hilarious, I don't care who ya are.

The response from the haters was typical.

Dave Welch of the Houston Area Pastor Council helped lead the repeal petition effort. He pledged to fight the Parker's decision in court.

"We were well aware we were dealing with an administration that's willing to bend the rules," Welch said. "Courts typically uphold the rights of the voters. We feel very confident in how that will go. Frankly, there was no respect for the rights of the voters in this process."

Welll, he's almost correct on that last part.  The petition's opponents completely disrespected the process of validly presenting their opposition, the process of democratically redressing one's grievances, and by extension, all Houstonians who are registered to vote.  Everybody that is legal, in other words.

So it gives me great pleasure to be able to scream in the faces of the illegals: "Get out of my city!"

Special acknowledgements go to Noel Freeman of the HGLBT and Brad Pritchett of Equal Rights Houston -- and several others -- for their efforts in mobilizing and coordinating the signature verification.  This is what political activism looks like, y'all.  And this is what the city's report, complete with images of the various pages of petitions, looks like.  There's legal action to come without a doubt, but nothing that can happen in time for this November.  Kind of a shame really, because I was expecting this vote to motivate liberals and progressives to turn out.

Social media blew up with the news, Wayne ran first, and TFN, Lone Star Q, Culturemap Houston, BOR, and Charles all have something additional on the development.

Back to your regularly scheduled outrages over nothing, conservatives.

Update: A consqueeracy?