A make-or-break night for R-Money and Frothy Mixture

The debate (comes) as yet another pivot point approached in a campaign that already has had more than its share of them. With a decision by Romney, Santorum and Paul to pull out of another joint event that had been set for Atlanta, there were indications this debate could be the last.

What a shame if that holds true. Nothing that I can recall in 40 years of observing politics has so clearly exposed the worst of a political party and its presidential candidates to so stark and shocking a degree as these Republican debates.

Plus it's been the best reality teevee ever.

(T)he big question in tonight's debate will be whether and how Rick Santorum addresses questions about his religious agenda—particular his warning about Satan's attack on America. That might make Republicans uncomfortable, but this is the party they created, and it's not like Mitt Romney hasn't been doing it too.

As ABC's Rick Klein notes, today is Ash Wednesday. Santorum has been wearing ash on his forehead today, although Newt Gingrich hasn't. I suspect Santorum won't wear it during the debate, but it would be a striking visual if he were to do so.

Mitt Romney hopes to put his tax plan at the center of the debate, but his back-to-back gaffes (saying that cutting spending hurts the economy, and using the language of Occupy Wall Street to describe his tax plan), could haunt him.

While Arizona -- and Super Tuesday's bonanza of primaries -- are also at stake, it's all about Michigan for the twin front-runners. Whichever man wins the Wolverine State gets the most momentum and the most media buzz. Romney simply cannot afford to lose one of his many 'home' states, and Santorum will fade away if he fails to finish at least an Iowa-like second.

While some public polls show a close race in Arizona, Romney's campaign seems confident of winning the state's primary next week, so much so that it hasn't aired any television commercials to date.

But the former Massachusetts governor faces an unexpectedly strong challenge in his home state of Michigan, where Santorum is hoping to spring an upset. Santorum's candidacy has rebounded in the two weeks since he won caucuses in Minnesota, Colorado and a non-binding primary in Missouri on the same day.

The result is a multimillion-dollar barrage of television commercials in Michigan in which the candidates and their allies swap accusations in hopes of tipping the race.

A victory in Michigan -- no matter who claims it -- would also provide momentum for the 10 primaries and caucuses a week later on Super Tuesday. In all, 518 Republican National Convention delegates are at stake between Feb. 28 and March 6, three times the number awarded in the states that have voted since the beginning of the year. It takes 1,144 to win the nomination.

The only reason it is still close is because Gingrich continues to split the 'Not Romney' vote. As Harold Cook observes:

(I)t wouldn't surprise me if Romney calls Gingrich every night, promising him the VP slot if he stays in, and Santorum calls Gingrich every night, promising the same slot if he withdraws.

Which man speed-dials Gingrich the most over the next week -- or two -- depends on what happens tonight, and at the Michigan polls next Tuesday.

Update (Thursday morning):

Maybe it was the fact that the candidates were forced to sit in an odd, uncomfortable configuration. Or, maybe it was that after twenty of these debates, these four candidates are just really tired of the routine. Or, maybe it was the Arizona sun that sapped the candidates of the energy and verve they have shown in previous debates.

Whatever it was, this final - maybe - GOP primary debate was not a particularly strong one for any candidate. It generated a lot of light, but very little heat. And, it did produce one sure loser: Rick Santorum.

[...]

Whatever momentum Santorum had came to a screeching halt in tonight's debate. Romney lured Santorum time and again into defending his record in Washington. And, Santorum took the bait - responding to his attacks with process arguments and Washington gobbleygook speak.

Example: Romney attacks Santorum for his record on earmarks and Congress' voracious appetite for spending. Santorum's response: "What happened the - the 12 years I was in the United States Senate, we went from the debt to GDP ratio, which is now over 100 percent. When I came to the Senate it was 68 percent of GDP. When I left the Senate it was 64 percent of GDP."

Um, what?

Instead of turning Romney's attacks into an opportunity to get on the offense and back on message, Santorum spent his time explaining - and explaining - and explaining.

Santorum has spent the last couple of weeks portraying himself as an outsider. He undid all of that work in tonight's debate.

Have the gas companies fracked themselves over?

Profits for the biggest U.S. energy producers including Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) are poised to decline the most since the financial meltdown of 2008-09 as the drilling technique known as fracking collapses natural gas prices.

Exxon and Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK), which today reports 2011 earnings, will see net income in 2012 slide about 8 percent and 10 percent, respectively, according to the mean of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the biggest drop since 2009 for the companies, the largest U.S. gas producers.

While higher global demand for transportation fuels has driven up crude prices 32 percent since 2009, the domestic gas glut is pinching earnings for producers even as it pushes the U.S. toward energy independence. Especially hurt are Chesapeake and ConocoPhillips (COP), which amassed gas assets before the full impact of fracking on supply growth was apparent, said Michael McMahon, a managing director for energy investments at Pine Brook Partners LLC, a private equity firm in New York.

“Fracking has opened up vast areas of development on a scale that’s practically overwhelming for the industry,” said William Dutcher, president of Dutcher and Co., an Oklahoma City- based operator of 1,300 oil and gas wells.

Oil output from U.S. fields including in shale rock is at a nine-year high and gas production hasn’t been this robust in almost four decades, Energy Department figures show.

“Shale has driven the gas price down to where it’s creating economic hardship for producers, especially those that made acquisitions in 2006 and 2007, when gas was so expensive,” Dutcher said.

Oil is touching $105 dollars a barrel because of unpredictable nuclear outcomes in Iran, gasoline prices are forecast to be $4 -- or even $5 -- a gallon by May, and yet the tar sands crude everyone wants to ship by pipeline from Canada to Houston and Port Arthur for refining will be sold to China because the US doesn't need it. We're drill, baby, drilling everywhere ... and it turns out the drillers are losing money because of it.

This might be the one thing that stops -- or at least slows down -- fracking in its tracks: the same capitalist pig-faced greed that drove them wild in the beginning is now bleeding them white.

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of vampires.

Update: Still wondering why gasoline prices in this country are rising when demand is dropping? It's not demand in China; it's the speculators.

While tension over Iran has ratcheted up over the last few months, the price of oil and gasoline has leaped far beyond conventional supply and demand variables. Financial speculators are piling into the market, torquing the Iranian fear factor into ever-higher prices.

"Speculation is now part of the DNA of oil prices. You cannot separate the two anymore. There is no demarcation," said Fadel Gheit, a 30-year veteran of energy markets and an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. "I still remain convinced oil prices are inflated."

[...]

What should the price of oil be if left to conventional supply and demand market fundamentals? Canada's the largest supplier of imported oil to the United States, which now actually produces more than half of the oil it consumes. Production and delivery costs for a barrel of oil from Canada are about $75 a barrel. The market-fundamentals cost for a barrel of oil is in that ballpark; above that, speculation sets the prices.

"It's as simple as that," said Gheit, who has testified before Congress and called for regulatory limits on speculation in commodities markets.

Historically, financial speculators accounted for about 30 percent of oil trading in commodity markets, while producers and end users made up about 70 percent. Today it's almost the reverse.

You should of course also laugh out loud when some dumbass conservatives blame Obama. If Republicans were concerned about high gas prices then they would say something to their oil buddies about them.

But they would rather screw America in hopes of winning an election.

Last Week in Gay Conservative Hypocrites

Try to keep focused on the fact that it's not the homosexuality, it's the hypocrisy.

Here's how the story broke in Arizona last Thursday:

Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu — who became the face of Arizona border security nationally after he started stridently opposing illegal immigration — threatened his Mexican ex-lover with deportation when the man refused to promise never to disclose their years-long relationship, the former boyfriend and his lawyer tell New Times.

The latest of the alleged threats were made through Babeu's personal attorney, who's also running the sheriff's campaign for Congress in District 4, the ex-lover says.

Babeu, obviously of French descent, was not just forced out of the closet but also his post as Arizona state co-chair of the Mitt Romney for President campaign. He remains a Republican candidate for Congress in the race to replace Gabby Giffords, as well as his position as county sheriff.

Let's review: it's OK to be gay, it's OK to keep running for Congress, it's OK to that you don't have to quit your job over a sex scandal that's really a massive abuse of power, but you HAVE to quit your position as head of Arizonans for Romney.

Got it. After all, it's not as if he was Tweeting pictures of himself to women other than his wife. If he had been doing that, he would have to resign from Congress.

Here's last week's local version of 'It's OK to be gay and abuse minorities, as long as it's just verbal abuse on conservative talk radio'.

"I do like 'em big, but not TOO big."

Security camera footage from a well-known gay bar has played a key role in a hit-and-run investigation of a former Houston City Councilman, who is now a conservative talk show host, Local 2 Investigates reported on Wednesday (February 16).

A Houston man reported to police that KTRH talk show host Michael Berry plowed his SUV into another car outside T.C.'s Show Baron Converse near Fairview in the Montrose area about 11 p.m. on January 31st.

Tuderia Bennett, of Galena Park, told Houston police that he was working as a bouncer at the front door during a popular cross-dressing 'drag show' that was going on inside the club. He watched the crash happen and told police he rushed up to the car after impact and got a good look at Berry behind the wheel.

"I said, 'That's definitely the guy.' For sure, 100 percent," said Bennett.

Bennett wrote down the license number from the car that he said caused more than $1,500 in damage to his car. Then, when HPD officers traced that license tag to Berry, the victim said he had no doubt it was him.

HPD and the Harris County district attorney's office are apparently still deciding whether to files charges against Berry for hit-and-run.

A police source familiar with the investigation into a hit-and-run accident linked to former city councilman and radio talk show host Michael Berry said Houston Police Chief Charles McClelland is upset with the handling of the high-profile probe and is expected to order an internal affairs inquiry.

Berry has not been charged over the Jan. 31 accident, but HPD's crash report identified a car registered to him as the vehicle suspected in the crash. The owner of the car that was struck said Berry backed into his vehicle outside a gay bar in Montrose.

Berry maintains silence on this matter -- despite showing up for his talk show on KTRH since the story broke -- on advice from his attorney Dick DeGuerin (also French). Who is probably charging Berry much, much more than the cost of the damages to the bouncer's car.

Is it possible that an entire political party is made up of frauds? These two news items must just be coincidental. Aren't they?

Update (emphasis mine):

Houston radio host Michael Berry spoke out against allegations that he was involved in a hit-and-run accident outside of a gay night club, slamming the media and saying he has been treated like “a member of Al Qaeda.”

Berry opened his KTRH radio show about the topic this morning and said the allegations against him were overblown and inaccurate. He said KPRC Local 2 reported the story last Wednesday to help boost its ratings during sweeps week.

“Was it a cover up?” Berry questioned. “No, it was a smear campaign. Channel 2, I’ve got my sights on you... You can smear my name without me but I’m not going down without a fight.”

[...]

Berry railed on the media and defended himself against gay activist groups who called into his program to criticize him. Berry said he has never spoken ill of gay people on his program and has instead spoken out against other conservative talk show hosts that make homophobic comments.

“Saying 'gay bar' and 'conservative talk show host' is too awesome for a news station to pass up because conservatives hate gays — or so we are told,” he said. “The only thing worse than a celebrity who gets it too easy is one who gets it too hard.”

You can't make this shit up.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance will never be able to say the word "surge" again with a straight face as it brings you this week's roundup.

Texas Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones resigned her position to run in the GOP primary for SD25 after finally coming to the realization that her argument that we can't really know where the capital of Texas is located was completely lame. Off the Kuff provides the commentary.

BossKitty at TruthHugger is really getting worried at how America's religious culture and the GOP are pushing America backwards into the previous century with barbaric personal intrusions. Virile GOP: American Women Are Property Again and Population Control, Climate Change and Zealots describe how these are taking place.

Nothing will change with school finance in Texas until we change our elected officials. That's what WCNews at Eye On Williamson tells us in this post: We must "Re-Fund" public education in Texas.

Neil at Texas Liberal wrote about Houston right-wing talk show host and former Houston city councilmember Michael Berry. Mr. Berry is alleged to have been involved in a hit-and-run incident outside a Houston gay bar. In the recent past, Mr. Berry has said things relating to gay people that did not seem very nice.

Santorum -- the man, not the substance -- is surging, and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs gathers the evidence.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants you to know that Nueces County Republicans screwed with redistricting, too.

Ken Judkins' column at the Lewisville Texan Journal asks: Why are otherwise good people so uncivil when it comes to politics?