Good, Bad, and Ugly: more of each

-- The Good: disappointing turnout on Election Day notwithstanding, Harris County voting proceeded with only the most minor of hiccups. Beverly Kaufman added extra polling locations, made technical improvements such as barcode and driver's license scanning that shortened wait times and reduced data-entry error during EV, secured the transfer cases (cardboard boxes) of e-Slates with an improved seal, added two extra seals on the e-Slates themselves that restricted election judges from setting up and activating the ballot boxes until the morning of Election Day, and took other precautions that John Behrman and others have urged, from parallel testing to quarantining of suspect machines. Berhman also was granted additional access to areas and information that were previously deemed ministerial and confidential.

I'm usually the critic, so when a compliment is due I don't want to run a deficit. Good job, Ms. Kaufman and the same to all of your staff, including elections supervisors John German and Randy Roberts and the platoons of assistant clerks.

-- The Bad: Hispanic precincts turned out their vote at 40-45% -- outstanding in any other election year, but lame compared to the countywide average of between 60-65%. No one seems to have a good answer beyond latent racism, lingering disillusionment at Hillary Clinton's primary loss, or lack of GOTV efforts in that community:

Local Democratic Chairman Gerald Birnberg said his party struggled to get former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential primary candidacy to return to the polls and vote for Obama and the rest of the party's slate. Clinton was immensely popular among Hispanic voters in Texas.

"The head wind was the demoralization of many of the Hispanic Hillary Clinton supporters and that was a reality we faced throughout the election," Birnberg said.

As Democratic political consultant Marc Campos of Houston pointed out, Tuesday's election totals put turnout in mostly Hispanic state House districts at 40 to 45 percent, compared to 60 to 65 percent in mostly white, suburban districts as well as mostly black districts.

Campos, a Hispanic, said his party's efforts to motivate Hispanic voters was substandard. Birnberg disagreed, saying that among other things, Democrats aimed at Hispanic households with a recorded telephone message from Clinton urging voters to back every candidate.

Birnberg pointed out that all countywide Democratic Hispanic candidates won their contests except one, while district attorney candidate C.O. "Brad" Bradford and other black candidates lost.

Regardless, "clearly we must continue to do better year in and year out in the Hispanic community," Birnberg added.

Bob Stein offers another clue, which goes to Paul Bettencourt's strenuous efforts to clerically suppress the vote:

About 100,000 people who voted in the spring Democratic primary failed to vote in the county's general election, according to Rice University political scientist Bob Stein.

"I don't think they're disinterested in politics. I think it's the way we conduct our elections and how we make it very difficult for people who move around a lot to re-register," he said.

Republican Paul Bettencourt, the voter registrar re-elected as county tax assessor-collector, rejected Stein's theory.

About 100,000 other people easily updated their registrations for the general election, he said. Also, he theorized that turnout would have been much higher if Obama or John McCain or their running mates would have campaigned in Houston.

I'll be damned; Bettencourt is right. Obama not only never came back to Texas beyond a fundraiser, he sucked hundred of volunteers out of the state to work in New Mexico and other swingers, and many who couldn't leave spent their weekends calling battlegrounds on Obama's behalf.

I fault the Texas Democratic Party for allowing this to happen. This is where it gets ...

-- Ugly:

(T)he Obama campaign gobbled up the potential volunteer base for a statewide sweep campaign by exhorting Texans to campaign in other states, both physically and over phone banks. But I don't blame the Obama campaign. At least they had something for the vast Texas Democratic volunteer base to do. How can we blame the Obama campaign for making use of this huge volunteer base when the Texas Democratic party did not intend to make use of it?

Can anybody identify a single specific action or statement from the State Party demonstrating that it seriously wanted Obama to put Texas in play?

MoveOn wore me out asking me to work for Obama. Meanwhile I was busy working my precinct for all Democrats. And the TDP apparently sent a mailer to GOTV, which I'm told they spent hundreds of thousands on to send all over the state.

Ah, so the Democratic political advisors specializing in direct mail got remunerated handsomely.

So long as we Texas Democrats continue to listen to the self-inflated consultants and other "pundits" who insist on running targeted campaigns instead of sweep campaigns, we cannot expect a sweep-campaign outcome!

Hellllloooooooooo ...

Post-election day toons

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from yesterday: still to be determined

-- Chris Bell and Joan Huffman will be in a run-off to serve as my state senator. Republican stalking horse Stephanie Simmons came in third. Al Edwards was supporting her.

Get your self behind Bell NOW, Al. Enough of this faux-Republican BS from you.

-- Control of the Texas House may hinge on the provisional ballots cast in the HD-105 race between Linda Harper-Brown and Bob Romano. If Democrat Romano can pull it out, the House will be split 75-75. They are currently separated by 25 votes. There will likely be a recount as well.

-- Election Day GOTV sucked in Texas, and indeed all across the nation. Kuffner says it best (and always nicer than me):

Turnout fell short of all of the optimistic projections. In Harris County, the total number of voters is given as 1,184,820, out of an also-lower-than-expected 1,892,656 registrations, for a 62.6% turnout. That represents 450,000 ballots cast yesterday after the 730,000 of early voting, so a bit less than 62% of all votes were cast in Harris during early voting. Statewide, the tally with a handful of precincts still out was 8,042,270 in the Presidential race, which is given as 59.24% turnout. Again, I have to wonder what might have happened had there been a concerted effort by the Obama campaign to organize and turn people out in Texas, rather than use Texas to turn out voters in other states. I plan to be a little bitter about this, which takes a wee bit of the joy out of the Presidential result from last night, and I daresay I will not be the only person to do so.

Less than 500,000 here yesterday, and less than 1.2 mil across Texas. Hard to say how many races that may have cost us, but Stace is already apologizing for low Hispanic turnout in Harris County.

I'll bitch about that later. For the moment, go read the comments at the link for some thought provocation.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from yesterday: The Good

-- The best: President-elect Barack Hussein Obama, a Senate approaching filibuster-proof, and a strenghthened House majority. The best possible outcome for the United States and the world, as far as I am concerned. As for my electoral prediction, I missed Indiana going blue but it looks like I got all the rest right.

-- Harris County Sheriff-elect Adrian Garcia, County Attorney-elect Vince Ryan, and County Clerk-elect Loren Jackson. Harris County Democrats won 30 of 35 county-wide contests including most of the judicials. I am taking great pleasure in specifically congratulating Judges-elect Al Bennett, Dion Ramos (he's Cubano like Mrs. Diddie), Larry Weiman, blogger Mike Englehart, Shawna Reagin, Steven Kirkland, and Robert Hinojosa. All of these new Democratic judges I have somehow managed to establish personal associations with (however brief and limited that may be). I anticipate they will serve the citizens of Harris County fairly, impartially, and with distinction.

-- Appeals court judge-elect Jim Sharp is a particularly sweet victory. Sharp is one of the good guys, and a real progressive we have now on the bench. Maybe the Texas Supreme Court one day, Jim?

-- New Democrats in the Texas House: Kristi Thibaut (insert big fat yahoo here), Diana Maldonado, Robert Miklos, Carols Kent and Alvarado, Chris Turner and Joe Moody. Re-elected Texas House Democrats: my very own Ellen Cohen, my old friend Valinda Bolton, Joe Heflin from Plainview, Paula Pierson, Donna Howard, Kirk England, Allen Vaught, and Hubert Vo. The Dallas-area Democrats again led the way with state legislative gains, including state Sen.-elect Wendy Davis.

-- And Bill Dingus getting 35% against Speaker Tom Craddick gets marked down as a real good thing.

-- Harris County Department of Education trustees-elect Deb Kerner (an old Meyerland Dem pal) and Jim Henley (with whom we celebrated late returns last night) are also gratifying wins.

The Good, the Bad,and the Ugly from yesterday: The BAD

-- Ed Emmett and Pat Lykos.

-- Good people who should have won (it's bad that they lost): Rick Noriega. Diane Trautman. Judicials Leslie Taylor (an early and strong supporter of David Van Os for Texas Attorney General in 2006), Martin Siegel, Mary Markantonis, Bert Moser, Susan Strawn, and Goodwille Pierre.

Statehouse Democratic candidates Sherrie Matula, Joe Montemayor, Sandra VuLe, and John McClelland. All had campaigns run by blogging/online associates and dear friends of mine; McClelland indeed is a prominent TPA blogger in his own right. Joe Jaworski. Ginny McDavid. Joel Redmond (49-51, a particular heartbreaker). Incumbents Juan Garcia and Dan Barrett, who won hard-fought victories just two years ago. Larry Hunter's somewhat overwhelming loss to Tuffy Hamilton was another one that stung.

And Glenn Melancon, one of the best progressive candidates on the ballot yesterday, overrun by that fossil Ralph Hall for TX-04.

-- Michael Skelly, who spent hundreds of thousands of dollars and lost convincingly. He ran as fast as he could away from the Democratic Party, airing a teevee ad in the closing days denouncing all things "liberal". Dude, if you can't be proud to be a Democrat, then maybe you're in the wrong political party.

Being ashamed of being a liberal is sooooo 2004.

We all thought this contest was going to be close because of Skelly's dough. Like John Kerry, Borris Miles, Tony Sanchez and a raft of wealthy yet unprincipled Democrats before him, if you're not the right kind of guy, then your money is only going to matter to the consultants sniffing around for a payday.

Well, they got paid, and you lost big. I'm tired of hearing the same shit excuses; "Texas is a red state", "we can't overcome redistricting", yadda yadda yadda. Stand up and fight for Democratic values or just keep your money invested elsewhere ( I understand there are lots of great bargains in the stock market these days).

If you need to see an example of someone who fought hard even when when the odds were impossibly long, who put his own considerable bankroll to work for all Democrats and not just his own selfish ego, see Fred Baron.

-- Oh, and then there was Nick Lampson, who did the same thing and got the same result.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly from yesterday: The UGLY

These are all fugly, actually:

-- John Cornyn, John Culberson, Paul Bettencourt, and Ted Olson.

-- Still no statewide Democrat. Mark Thompson and the Supremes -- Jordan, Houston, Yanez -- all came up just short.

-- Ugliest of all: Dominionist David Bradley is re-elected to the Texas State Board of Education.

Today.

6 a.m. -12 p.m.: Opening and working my polling place
3 p.m.- God only knows how long: Observing the county's returns at the Harris County admin bldg. downtown

Light posting until Wednesday, some time, with some opinions then about the results. Enjoy this video, courtesy Vince at Capitol Annex, for a recap of our primary and general election season here in Texas ...

EV 11/3: 353

This is how the map will look tomorrow (I'm predicting):

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

The race is close in traditionally red states like Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, and even McLame's Arizona, but it would be a rout if Obama captured any one of them. It could happen that way, I suppose; I just can't allow myself to dream that big.

Missouri and Indiana could still go Democratic, but I think it's incredible enough if North Carolina, pushed a little here at the end by the acrimoniousness of the Senate duel between Dole and Hagan, tips to azure (or Tar Heel powder blue, as the case may be). One out of those three certainly ain't bad.

But if you're still feeling a little nervous, click on Ohio and Florida above -- both still have numerous instances of voter suppression and machine irregularities being reported -- and then go on and click NC, too, to make all three of them red.

See? Obama still has 291. Turn out the lights; the party's just getting started.

Election Eve Wrangle

It is Monday, November 3, 2008. In less than 24 hours, the United States will have elected a new President and Texas will -- hopefully -- send Rick Noriega to the U.S. Senate as well as a host of new Texas legislators to Austin.

While we pause between the weekend's activities and tomorrow festivities, here is your Election Eve edition of the Texas Progressive Alliance's weekly roundup.

Bradley from North Texas Liberal lets us know that you should be careful not to lose your vote if you have to use an electronic voting machine, like TV personality Oprah Winfrey almost did.

jobsanger believes an avalanche of new voters could produce some surprises on Election Day, including the possibility that Georgia will turn blue, and even though an amazing 23% of Texans think Obama is muslim, a huge turnout in the urban areas and South Texas could produce some surprises in Texas. Early voting totals show this is happening.

Justin at AAA-Fund Blog is glad that 60% of Asian Americans polled in Harris County support the Democrats. He also is glad that voting this year was not a chore as it often feels. Justin urges everyone to support AAA-Fund's five Texas endorsees: Rick Noriega, Al Green, Nick Lampson, Hubert Vo, and Sandra VuLe.

It's been an exciting week for Democrats as chronicled by McBlogger; first up was Hank Gilbert asking a Cornyn staffer to take a walk from a Rick Noriega event. Then there was Texas Blogger (and current TPA Chair) Vince Leibowitz spanking the Mike McCaul campaign for their amateurish content theft. Finally, we at McBlogger received word that Dr. Dobson had traveled to the future and didn't like what he saw. Which is something you'll probably love.

Vince at Capitol Annex tells us how John Davis (R-Clear Lake) is sending out his wife to attack Netroots-backed candidate Sherrie Matula (D-Houston). In return, he opens Davis' own personal Pandora's Box and discloses Davis' shoddy record.

The Texas Cloverleaf notes that Barack Obama leads John McCain in fundraising in Denton County of all places! In nonpartisan news, while Obama is raising money, Ron Natinsky is spending it. The Dallas city councilman is spending your tax dollars on trinkets bearing his name. In shocking news, a 9 year old is electrocuted by a McCain-Palin yard sign. No, we couldn't make this stuff up if we wanted to.

After record breaking early voting in Williamson County, Eye On Williamson is ready for the general election. The HD-52 race has been the focus of attention this election cycle. The issues concerning the district's voters include the Trans-Texas Corridor, insurance reform, and the economy. No matter the issue, Diana Maldonado is the best choice in HD-52.

WhosPlayin looks at the early voting turnout in Texas' 26th congressional district, and thinks Ken Leach just might be able to upset incumbent Michael Burgess. And guess whether this incident of political suppression happened in Liberia or Texas. (Hint: it was Harris County, Texas.) Most of all, WhosPlayin wants Denton County residents to get to the polls and VOTE!

Off the Kuff takes his last looks at early voting, and makes fun of some whining by Republican enablers Texans for Lawsuit Reform.

El Paso is going Democratic in a big way. As El Paso goes so should South Texas. CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is looking for a blue, blue Thanksgiving!

BossKitty at TruthHugger is laments pre-election jitters, Oh The Stress Of It All -- Op Ed, and how many years will it take to recover because, Divided We Fall.

Neil at Texas Liberal says to think about the future when you vote. Don't be like Galveston voters who in 1886, 14 years before the 1900 hurricane, voted no on building a seawall. Texas Liberal also offers up a post on how Texans have voted for President since 1948, and, finally, submits for your review some election predictions.

Over at TexasKaos, TxSharon tells us that somebody is finally looking at the Barnett Shale Gas Wells . It's called accountability and it's about time. And boadicea provides some excellent resources/talking points on the ACORN non-story. Give a look. Lastly, Txsharon kicks off a lively debate on the the training of 4000 troops in the use of non-lethal weapons for possible domestic use.

Texas politics is screwed up for at least two obvious reasons this week: because Tom Craddick has his debates sponsored by AT&T -- complete with a lobbyist on the panel, and because 23% of all Texans think Barack Obama is a Muslim. The sad details at Brains and Eggs.

Nat-Wu at Three Wise Men discusses the long tradition in the Republican of crying wolf about voter fraud in an effort to minorities from legitimately exercising their right to vote, and Xanthippas rips into anti-woman bloggers for brewing up a faux controversy over their DART bus ads.

Last-lap Funnies

733,771

That's how many votes are in the bank in Harris County. And while OpenSourceDem in the previous post is still a little "skeptimistic", I am enthused about the ultimate results we will see Tuesday night:

More than 730,000 people voted early in Harris County, officials said, in a gusher of participation that rewrote the book for Tuesday's election and Texas politics beyond.

After shutting the doors Friday night on 12 days of early voting, officials said 678,312 citizens had voted at the county's 36 sites, and an additional 55,459 had returned completed mail ballots before Tuesday's deadline.

The combined figure of 733,771 equals about 37 percent of the county's registered voters and for the first time may be higher than the number who vote on Election Day for the offices of president, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and several local positions.

A few more early votes may be added later to Friday's total; lines were so long at the Lone Star College site on Tomball Parkway in north Harris County and at other locations that voting was extended past 9 p.m. to accommodate voters who arrived by the 7 p.m. deadline, officials said.

No further in-person voting will take place before 7 a.m. Tuesday, when the doors open for 12 hours at the county's 728 polling places.

Predictions by County Clerk Beverly Kaufman and partisan strategists for Tuesday's turnout hover at or slightly below the amount of the early vote turnout.

A combined total of about 730,000 for early voting and 700,000 more on Tuesday would put total county turnout above 1.4 million, or 73 percent of all registered voters.

I just have to think that's too big for anybody to steal. Well, maybe they can steal it in West Virginia. Maybe in Ohio and/or Florida again. But even all that won't win it for them this time.

Vote Suppression -- The Next to Last Word from OpenSourceDem

Ed.note: OSD and I will be at the Harris County administration building Tuesday evening, observing Beverly Kaufman and staff count the vote, while you are out celebrating victory.

Harris County, Texas, leads the state and the nation in systematic, official vote suppression.

We are the benchmark: Hundreds of thousands of voters are impeded, tens of thousands ore obstructed, nearly a million are demoralized and self-excluded. Perpetual incumbents of both parties are indifferent to this. Elected Democratic public and party officials immediately responsible for and complicit in it are not held accountable for their ineffectuality.

Thus …

Exploiting the complexity of state and federal law, as well as poor design and unreliable operation of three (call them 'overlapping') voter registration database systems, tens of thousands of applicants routinely encounter rejections and data-entry errors that make it hard to get in the poll book on election day. Basically the burden of an unreliable “kludge” falls on the voter. Neither party -- deferential to incumbents with a vested interest in low-participation politics -- is much interested in these problems because they are “Too Technical!”

Further complicating matters, maintaining registration is very hard for those who move frequently; any combination of a young, poor, or non-white person most obviously. So, hundreds of thousands of registrants are in the book somewhere but chronically in a limbo status of “Suspense” or “ID” voter. Moreover, re-registering or completing a “Statement of Residence” form can actually make things worse by introducing more opportunity for data-entry error by the voter registrar or data retrieval error by the election clerks. This is especially acute for suburban voters who move between and among various counties in Texas. They can update their registration at the polls. Their update will go on the statewide voter roll. They will be dropped from the old county, but they will not be registered in the new county despite the new technology.

The only recourse running up to the election has been to “swamp and sweep”: Neither the Obama campaign nor the Harris County party has the right technical tools or enough legal recourse to do that well But, they have both used every resource they do have (a) to raise political participation and awareness generally, (b) to expose and discourage any clever, new or ad hoc vote suppression and (c) to expose and untangle whatever they can for motivated and patient voters. Hundreds of voters have gotten a full, limited, or provisional ballot that will count despite all the obstacles. Registration is up somewhat and turnout is way up.

That is as good as it is going to get in the absence of fundamental change to what is still, after 134 years, an effectively property-qualified franchise, now “credit-scored” but still administered pursuant to the Jim Crow Texas Election Code.

This sorry situation – crippling for the Democratic Party in any ordinary year -- has both a political and economic bias that hand-wringing over racism is now pretty much an excuse for ignoring. Yes, racial bias is almost as great a consequence as ever, but it is no longer a “root cause” of problems with voter registration in Texas. Our problem today goes way beyond race and threatens every citizen.

The root problem is economic discrimination. And that pervades, for instance, indirect and regressive taxation. So the serious problems are at the neglected core and not the controversial fringe of the legal, logistical, and technical foundations of voter registration, indeed of all Texas government.

The unifying and patriotic Obama campaign has a message of hope: “It is not about me, it is about you!” And it should translate into a message of change. The Texas Democratic Party in Austin ceded Texas to the GOP long ago, but not the Harris County courthouse, and not the Texas House. If and only if the built-in, refractory vote suppression here and there has been overcome temporarily in the course of this campaign, then something fundamental, something historic and irreversible can be done about it … starting next year.

And it starts with the election of Dr. Diane Trautman for Harris County tax assessor/collector.