UH releases poll with 10-point Clinton lead in Harris County

If you recall, I made fun of the lady at the beauty shop over a week ago for advancing this exact rumor.  So she gets to feed me some crow.

Poll results released today by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs show that Hillary Clinton has a 10-point lead over Donald Trump among registered voters in Harris County, the largest county in Texas and third largest in the nation. Clinton leads Trump 42 percent to 32 percent, with nine percent supporting Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, two percent backing the Green Party’s Jill Stein, and 15 percent undecided.

If the numbers hold, it would represent the widest margin of victory for a Democratic presidential nominee in Harris County since 1964, the year Lyndon B. Johnson was elected president. He received 59.5 percent of the Harris County vote.

Clinton’s lead narrows to only four points, 43 percent to 39 percent, among voters who say they are extremely likely to cast a ballot this November.

The "extremely likely" screen, with the four-point lead, is probably the closest to accurate, FWIW.  Even if ten is the margin, I simply don't think it can hold all the way to Election Day, but it's more than enough to give blue partisan hopes a big boost.

The rest of the poll's results, however, won't (bold is mine).

The UH Hobby School poll finds no evidence of national Republican concern that Trump’s unpopularity within the party will negatively effect down ballot races. In the race for Harris County District Attorney, among the voters extremely likely to cast a ballot this fall, incumbent Republican Devon Anderson narrowly bested Democrat Kim Ogg, 30 percent to 29 percent, while incumbent Republican Ron Hickman led Democrat Ed Gonzalez 36 percent to 30 percent in the contest for sheriff. A plurality of voters is unsure about their preference for district attorney (47 percent) and sheriff (36 percent).

A year ago during the mayor's race, UH returned a similarly strange polling result:  Sylvester Turner with a ten-point lead, Bill King and Adrian Garcia tied for second, Chris Bell a close fourth, and a massive quantity of undecideds.  The November general election results were wildly different, with Turner 32%, King 25, Garcia 17, Ben Hall 9, and Bell 7.

I pooh-poohed their poll then, and I'm pooh-pooh-ing these two county results now.

Update II (9/23): Charles says I'm confusing my Cougar polls here.  Fair enough; I sit corrected.  I still pooh on both.

For one thing, that's an enormous number of GOP split tickets.  Even with the high unsure/undecideds, something appears to be very off if Hickman is leading Gonzalez by six while Clinton leads Trump by ten.  I would have expected the opposite in the sheriff's race to be true, in fact, irrespective of the presidential.

This is a data point, but an awfully strange one.

Update (9/23): The mighty Kuffner has weighed in, and disapproves of the poll to some greater degree than I do.   No issues with his take.  But I thought about these numbers awhile overnight, and did some back-of-the-envelope math: if 100% of the Harris County electorate represents 1,000,000 voters (Charles will probably have a guess at turnout later and it will be higher than this; my number is extremely conservative) then by virtue of UH's poll, Clinton is ahead of Trump by 100,000 votes, and Ron Hickman leads Ed Gonzalez in the race for sheriff by 60K.

This doesn't seem plausible in a sampling that is 50% D, 45% R, and 5% I (page 5).  It would suggest there is a very large number of Democrats in Harris County -- joined by Republicans, for that matter --  who would be splitting their tickets Clinton and Hickman.  (Significantly less so Clinton and Anderson in the DA's race; everybody understands that one will be very close all the way to Election Night).

Could there really be tens of thousands of blue and red partisans in the county voting Hillary for president and Ron Hickman for sheriff?  I'm just not buying that.

Your voter's guide for November 8, 2011 Part 4: the rest

Controller: Ronald Green

Green is unopposed. He succeeded Annise Parker two years ago -- moving up from city council's at large #4 slot to assume management of the city's books -- and like Parker before him, keeps a low profile in the position. He probably has designs on higher office when he's term-limited out in 2015; until then he shouldn't make much news to speak of. Anticipate a run for Congress or the statehouse in 2016.

District B: No endorsement

No agenda here; I simply don't know any of the candidates well enough to endorse one. Of the eight contestants in line to replace Jarvis Johnson, only Charles Ingram is listed as a sustaining member of the HCDP and his website's homepage still says "under construction" (the link to his bio there is functional but nearly nothing else; the links to his Facebook page and Twitter feed likewise inoperable). I've received e-mail invitations to events from Kathy Blueford Daniels and Phillip Paul Bryant (from the D-MARS listserv) but haven't gotten to any of them. Bryan Smart has an introduction video but nothing else. Alvin Byrd worked in constituent services for former councilman Johnson.

Jerry Davis co-owns the popular Breakfast Klub restaurant (have the wings and waffles) and thus may share the highest community profile with Byrd. Two candidates, James Joseph and Kenneth Perkins, list no website; just a Hotmail e-address.

All except Perkins, Smart, and Davis have recent Democratic primary voting histories (none are Republicans). Bryant, Byrd, and Davis seem to have the most professional campaign organizations, online and off.

Here's three videos, one from "Red, White, and Blue" discussing the race with Garnet Coleman and Houston Defender publisher Sonceria Messiah-Jiles, one of the debate between candidates sponsored by the LWV, and the third is Jones and Polland's take on that.

With a slate of eight and three appearing to hold the higher profiles, expect a runoff. I'll examine the two remaining candidates closer in that event.

District E, District G: No endorsement

Mike Sullivan is unopposed and Oliver Pennington has token opposition in Clyde Bryan (no website). All are Republicans. I'll pass.

District H: Ed Gonzalez District I: James Rodriguez

Councilmen Gonzalez and Rodriguez likewise have token opposition to their re-election and should be returned to council.

District J: Mike Laster

Like Karen Derr in C, Laster should have already been elected to council in 2009. He lost a runoff two years ago in District F to Al Hoang, a tragic error on the part of Houston's voters. But we get a make-good, as we do with Derr.

J is one of the two new districts added this year as a result of the 2010 Census pushing Houston's population over two million and change. The Sharpstown area, carved away from F, should be competitive for a Latino candidate ... but there are two -- Rodrigo Cañedo and Criselda Romero -- and they are going to split that voting bloc. It certainly isn't the case that Cañedo and Romero are not well-qualified to serve on council; Rodrigo helps run the family's small business while Criselda served in Councilman Ed Gonzalez' office. All three have Democratic primary voting histories, with Laster the sole sustaining member of the HCDP.

If I'm wrong and the district goes to a runoff -- without or without Laster -- then it's anybody's game.

That's it for the municipal politicos; I'll have some thoughts on the down-ballot educational races in a later posting. *I did not find time to get to these. Here are Stand for Children's endorsements for HISD board and the Chron's endorsement for Houston Community College trustee.

LWV's I-Day Houston, with 150 candidates and 2 debates

The League of Women Voters' Infrastructure Day is tomorrow afternoon, with townhall meetings and more than one hundred fifty candidates -- D's, R's, L's, and G's -- on the Harris County November ballot meeting and greeting the attendees, followed that evening by two debates. Details below from the press release, and at their site.

============

The League of Women Voters of the Houston Area and the American Society of Civil Engineers are set to host two debates, a candidate meet-and-greet, and infrastructure townhall meetings during the Infrastructure Day Houston (I-Day) event at the George R. Brown Convention Center (Entrance C, 3rd Floor) on Saturday, Sept. 18, 2010.  The first of two debates will begin at 6:00 pm.  Candidate meet-and-greet opportunities and infrastructure townhall meetings will begin as early as at 3:00 pm.  The event is free and open to the public.

The League is hosting and facilitating two debates for the offices of the Harris County Judge and Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector.  Elisabeth MacNamara, National President of the League of Women Voters of the United States, is introducing the candidates.  Laurie Johnson, host of NPR’s All Things Considered, is moderating the debates.  The Tax Assessor-Collector debate with Don Sumners and Diane Trautman is from 6:00 to 7:00 pm.  The County Judge Debate with Ed Emmett and Gordon Quan is from 7:00 to 8:00 p.m.

Prior to the debates, the candidate meet-and-greet and the infrastructure-related townhall meetings will run from 3:00 to 5:30 pm.  Voters will be able to meet over 150 candidates running for public office in Harris County for the election being held on November 2, 2010.  The townhall meetings will focus on topics including: Transportation, Energy, Ports and Airports, and Storm and Waste Water.  Experts, including Dr. John Lienhard, host of the Engines of Our Ingenuity program on National Public Radio, will lead the discussions and information sessions.

Free t-shirts will be given at the door for the first 100 attendees.

===============

Town Hall Meetings on Infrastructure

Co-sponsored with American Society of Civil Engineers
Talk about problems and solutions with experts, such as Dr. John Lienhard,
host of The Engines of Our Ingenuity
Session One: 3:00–4:00 pm
1a. Transportation
1b. Energy
Session Two: 4:30–5:30 pm
2a. Storm & Waste Water
2b. Ports & Airports

Candidate Meet and Greet

Brought to you by the League of Women Voters
of the Houston Area Education Fund
Talk to candidates seeking federal, state, and county offices. Ask them why they deserve your vote.
Open to the public at 3:00–5:30 pm

Candidate Debates

Co-sponsored with KUHF and the American Society of Civil Engineers.
See the candidates for Tax Assessor and County Judge debate live.

HARRIS COUNTY TAX ASSESSOR
Don Sumners and Diane Trautman: 6pm–7 pm

HARRIS COUNTY JUDGE
Ed Emmett and Gordon Quan: 7 pm–8 pm

Conservatives ask Rick Perry to halt execution of Scott Panetti

He's running for president, so I kinda doubt he hears this plea.

A group of conservative leaders is mounting a last-minute effort to stop Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) from executing inmate Scott Panetti, arguing that killing "one of the most seriously mentally ill prisoners on death row in the United States" would "undermine the public's faith in a fair and moral justice system."

[...]

Twenty-one conservative leaders have joined with mental health and death penalty reformers in opposing the execution, asking Perry in a recent letter to commute Panetti's sentence to life in prison. Signatories included former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, conservative activist Brent Bozell and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer.

[...]

(Yesterday) the (Texas Pardons and Parole) board unanimously voted against delaying Panetti's execution for 180 days and recommending to Perry that his sentence be commuted.

Perry's office did not immediately return a request for comment on whether the governor agreed with the board's decision or on whether he was considering a 30-day stay.

More than 93,000 people have signed an online petition asking Perry to grant Panetti clemency. He also has the support of his ex-wife and former Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas).

Abby Johnson, an anti-abortion activist, wrote in a recent Dallas Morning News op-ed that opposing Panetti's execution is a pro-life position.

"A fundamental tenet of the pro-life ethic is that all life has value and we are called to protect it, especially in its most vulnerable forms. A culture of life recognizes the value of those who are vulnerable and prioritizes safeguarding them," she wrote.

"By setting an execution date for Panetti, Texas is going entirely contrary to what we expect in a society that truly values life," Johnson added. "This proposed execution shows a troubling disregard toward the reality of mental illness and protecting those who suffer from it."

Mother Jones reporter Stephanie Mencimer noted that it's "unusual for conservative Christians to support a clemency petition like Panetti's."

If there was ever a time that the governor would be able to demonstrate some human qualities -- i.e., compassion, forgiveness, a conscience perhaps -- now is his chance.  But he's running for president, and Bill Clinton failed to take the right path at this crossroads in 1992, so I'm not expecting Rick Perry to do anything differently.

Update (12/3): Of course I wasn't expecting the Fifth Circuit to do anything at all, but they did. Here's Wonkette with the snark.

In a fit of temporary sanity, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has issued a stay of execution for Scott Panetti... 

 

[...]

Now that the 5th Circuit has stepped in, Perry can continue to be silent on Panetti and keep hoping that taking a position one way or the other won’t hurt him with 2016 Republican primary voters. (We are joking, of course — Perry’s chances would only be hurt if he backed off from executing anyone, ever.)

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance mourns the passing of former Texas Governor Mark White over the weekend.  A champion for public education, White ushered in reforms that still impact Texas schools to this day, including limits on elementary class size, a "no pass, no play" policy for high school athletes, and the first-ever statewide testing standards.

White will be eulogized by former president George W. Bush and Luci Baines Johnson, daughter of former president Lyndon Johnson, on Wednesday at a memorial service held at Second Baptist Church in Houston.  White will then lie in state in Austin's Capitol rotunda, with a second memorial service held there on Thursday.  He will be interred at the Texas State Cemetery.

Here's the blog post and news roundup from last week.

Off the Kuff cast a critical eye at Chris Hooks' latest (and weakest) piece about Democratic recruitment for state offices.

Blake Farenthold doesn't just insult and demean female Republican senators, he disses his own constituents by favoring oligarchs over Army employees. CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme can't wait until he's former representative Farenthold.

In an environmental news roundup, SocraticGadfly wonders if the internal combustion engine's complexities will hasten its demise.

This fall, when someone asks if PDiddie at Brains and Eggs is ready for some football ... the answer will be no.

Stace at Dos Centavos applauds Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez' discontinuance of the use of private jails, and makes the cogent point about elections having consequences for the rotten money bail system in the county.

jobsanger underscores that our nation's greatest shame is an inadequate healthcare system.

Texas Freedom Network's quotes of the week include a few from some highly embarrassed state Republicans.

The city of Lewisville and its school district join the growing chorus of Texas municipal organizations pushing back against the state legislature's attempts to override local laws with dictums from Austin, reports the Texan Journal.

Neil at All People Have Value offered his guide to activism in the Age of Trump. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

===============

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs and news sources.

With ten days left in the special legislative session, the Texas Tribune provides a comprehensive update on where things stand regarding Governor Greg Abbott's priorities.

'The Freest Little City in Texas', in the Texas Observer, tells the tale of a libertarian experiment in city government that went awry over taxes, debt, and some very angry people.

Some prison inmates will get moved into air conditioned cells ... after a federal judge set a deadline ordering the Texas Department of Criminal Justice to do so, reports the San Antonio Current.

Michael Li explains how the Texas redistricting case might play out.

Grits for Breakfast sorts out the DPS crime lab fees situation.

Paradise in Hell wonders what the floor is for Donald Trump's approval rating.

The TSTA Blog calls for adult leadership in Austin.

Therese Odell wades into the latest revelations in the Seth Rich story.

Molly Glentzer pushes back against an article that had criticized Houston's mini-murals program.

John Nova Lomax goes looking for the "real" Montrose.

DBC Green Blog wants you -- yes, YOU -- to run for office.

Pages of Victory links to a piece that best explains why he left the Democratic Party.

And Harry Hamid collects a few parts from a passenger train.

And starring Junior Samples as Jim Hogan

I can't claim having made the first comparison but I can sure riff off it.

While Hogan, who resembles the old Junior Samples character in Hee Haw, has granted a few interviews to Texas Observer and Fort Worth Star Telegram, (Hogan said) he's not going to do any more interviews. He notes NBC requested an interview, but Hogan wanted no part of it.

According to Randy Hanna, Democratic party parliamentarian for the Johnson County Democratic Party, where Hogan resides, "Jim Hogan is a nice enough fellow, but he's no Democrat."

Hanna says he was horrified when he attempted to determine Hogan's position vis a vis public school lunch programs, which are overseen by the agriculture commissioner.

"He said what poor people need to do is plant gardens and that would solve a lot of problems with the lunch programs," Hanna recalls. "I couldn't believe he was serious, that he would even say that, but he was dead serious."

Johnson County Democratic Party secretary LuAnne Leonard said she was stunned when Hanna related details of his interview to her.

"The kids in the lunch program here are from low-income families and a majority of them live in apartments, so I was flabbergasted when I heard the 'plant gardens' statement. Hogan really has no clue."

No straight ticket voting this year, Democrats.  Leave Hee Haw to the GOP.

Not a single politician or party operative we've spoken with can pinpoint any specific reason why Hogan is seeking the job, but many suspect some kind of backroom Republican shenanigans similar to Rush Limbaugh's 2008 Operation Chaos. (Limbaugh wanted Republicans to cross-over in the primaries and vote for the weakest Democratic candidates to ensure Republican victories in the general election.) In other words, Hogan could well be an insurance policy for Republican interests in a race where both Republican runoff candidates -- former state representatives Sid Miller and Tommy Merritt -- are weak and seen as fairly vulnerable. [...]

A check of Hogan's voting records finds that he usually votes in the Republican primary, but voted in the Democratic primary in 2008, presumably as Limbaugh urged. So the general consensus that Hogan is a straw-man candidate meant to be a weak sister who will be crushed in the November general election by Miller doesn't seem all that far-fetched.

Maybe it's not a conspiracy; maybe the vast majority of people in Texas really are this stupid.

Hogan has been an object of fascination for political junkies and media types. He may have won purely by chance, but his inexplicable success offers some relief from the absurdity and occasional cruelty of Texas political life. A Tumblr set up by admirers records his exploits. A Texas Monthly piece highlighted Hogan’s runoff win as one of the few bright spots of a generally disheartening night. A column Hogan wrote for the op-ed website TribTalk may go down in the record books as the most memorable piece of political rhetoric from the 2014 election:

It has been reported that I am unknown and do not campaign. If you will pause for a moment and Google “Jim Hogan Texas Agriculture Commissioner,” I believe you will be amazed at the amount of information available about me. I think you will agree that those reports can be put to rest.

Why is he doing this? Does he think he can win? Is he a playful imp, or Chauncey Gardiner? After meeting Hogan, it remains difficult to say. This much is certain: Hogan’s not a fool. He knows Miller will be the likely victor. But, he says, he wasn’t supposed to win the last two times. So who knows? He’s got a healthy belly laugh.

Everybody that can't vote for either Hogan or Sid Miller -- as if there's a difference-- is going to have a better option in November.  His name is Kenneth Kendrick, and he'll be the Green Party's nominee in this race.  More on him shortly.

Texpatriate has another vintage television show in mind, but the resemblance to Bob Crane just isn't there.  Nobody is, for only one example, suggesting that Hogan might be some sort of sexual deviant.

He's just a moron, and perhaps a trickster, a stooge for Sid Miller.  And that's lousy enough for everyone to vote for someone else all by itself.

Political debates schedule (more than just Obama and Romney)

-- You've probably already seen the Commission on Presidential Debates' October schedule of the traditional three-P-and-one-VP. Free and Equal has also scheduled a presidential debate between Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, and Virgil Goode on Tuesday, October 23rd, in Chicago. They're still waiting on RSVPs from Obama and Romney. No, seriously.

Free & Equal Elections Foundation gained national attention in 2008, when it hosted the only Presidential debate in the country in which every candidate who had ballot access in enough states to become President was invited. Both Ralph Nader and Chuck Baldwin participated in 2008, and Free & Equal is seeking to increase that number for the 2012 election. The debate made history, being the first and only all-inclusive, nationally televised debate on C-SPAN2. 

The Libertarians are suing the CPD, the Dems, and the Repubs because of being excluded from the Obama-Romney matches, but their legal argument doesn't appear to hold a great deal of water.

If you would like to see Stein, Johnson, Goode and/or Rocky Anderson added to the CPD roster, you can sign a petition here.

-- Jon Stewart and Bill O'Reilly plan a faceoff that should be worth exceedingly more than the $4.95 pay-per-view price. Count me in on that.

-- Ted Cruz and Paul Sadler have two debates scheduled in Dallas next month, both to be televised. They likewise haven't invited David Collins or John Jay Myers to participate. Myers has been busy protesting that decision as well, just not inside a courtroom. The Green and Libertarian senatorial candidates are holding discussions about having their own debate, and I'll post news about that if/when it breaks.

-- Nick Lampson and Randy Weber (CD-14, to replace Ron Paul) had a debate scheduled this past week but Weber canceled. The two have another one on the calendar for October 3rd in Clear Lake.

-- And Pete Gallego and Quico Canseco (CD-23) will debate en Espanol next Tuesday the 25th in a contest that will last for an hour, but be edited down to 30 minutes and then televised on Sept. 29th. The Alpine Daily Planet, Gallego's hometown newspaper, has more. Once again, their Green and Libertarian counterparts -- Ed Scharf and Jeffrey C. Blunt, respectively -- are not invited to join them in any language.

DNC kills Texas Two-Step to protect Clinton from being Obama'ed by Sanders

That's my premise, anyway.

Seven years after Barack Obama earned the majority of Texas' delegates despite losing the primary to Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democratic National Committee has put an end to the state's hybrid presidential nominating process, saying it "had the potential to confuse voters."

Under the two-step process, two-thirds of a candidate's convention delegates are awarded on the basis of the primary election results. The remaining third are chosen at caucuses, which are held after the polls closed on primary night.

Now, at the direction of the national party, delegates will be based solely on the primary results, a shift some party members lamented Tuesday.

"It's not the way we would prefer to do it," said Harris County Democratic Party Chair Lane Lewis. "I still think that there is plenty of opportunity for individuals who want to participate in the delegate process to be able to participate."

The Frontloading blog agrees with me.

As a side note, it hard to resist viewing the denied waiver request as a signal of if not the Clinton campaign's pull on the Rules and Bylaws Committee, then the reality that there are folks on the committee (Harold Ickes comes to mind) that are or have in the past been aligned with the Clintons. That comment is not meant as some form of conspiracy theory. That is how the Democratic process has worked: Surrogates of the various campaigns get involved in the rules process. Given that Clinton folks were not fans of the two-step (and for arguably legitimate reasons) after 2008, it is not a real shock that it would meet its end now.

But why now and not four years ago? Parties holding the White House tend not to tinker as much with their delegate selection rules. And by extension, those in the White House at the head of their parties often prefer to maintain the same combination of rules that got them to the White House in the first place. The denied Texas request is as much about the DNC transitioning to life after Obama as it is about Clinton (and company) not liking the two-step because of 2008.

Back in Part One of my thesis on Bernie Sanders' even-more-difficult-than-you-may-think path to the Democratic nomination (Part Two is still under construction), I mentioned that Democratic muckety-mucks would start jamming Sanders if he began to get traction.  Well, he's been getting some serious traction, and sure enough, they're changing the rules to protect HRC and thwart him.

If you think this is not the case, I'd like to read your argument against it in the comments.

Update: Still don't think the insiders are working against him?

Richard Trumka has a message for state and local AFL-CIO leaders tempted to endorse Bernie Sanders: Don’t.

In a memo this week to state, central and area divisions of the labor federation, and obtained by POLITICO, the AFL-CIO chief reminded the groups that its bylaws don’t permit them to “endorse a presidential candidate” or “introduce, consider, debate, or pass resolutions or statements that indicate a preference for one candidate over another.” Even “‘personal’ statements” of candidate preference are verboten, Trumka said.

The memo comes amid signs of a growing split between national union leaders — mindful of the fact that Clinton remains the undisputed favorite for the nomination — and local officials and rank and file, who are increasingly drawn to the Democratic Party’s growing progressive wing, for whom Sanders is the latest standard-bearer.

[...]

His message wasn’t anything new for the federation’s state leaders: They know that endorsement decisions belong to the national leadership. Still, it was unusual for Trumka to call them out in a memo. “I’m not sure I’ve ever seen one before like this,” said Jeff Johnson, the president of the AFL-CIO’s Washington state labor council.

Johnson agreed that it was important for the AFL-CIO to speak with a single voice. But “there’s a lot of anxiety out there in the labor movement,” he said, “and we’re desperately searching for a candidate that actually speaks to working-class values. The Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders camp is very, very attractive to many of our members and to many of us as leaders, because they’re talking about the things that need to happen in this country.”

Similarly, Massachusetts AFL-CIO President Steven Tolman said he agreed that Trumka had to lay down the law. More tellingly, though, he added: “Bernie Sanders has spent his life actually fighting for working people. He’s made no secret of it, and he’s used it as his mantra. And that I respect very much.” When asked about Clinton’s candidacy, Tolman was less effusive: “Who? Who? Please. I mean with all respect, huh?”

Hickman, Gonzalez, Soros, Ogg, and the judge who switched parties

-- A spirited debate last night between the two Harris County Sheriff candidates, Tommy Thomas Ron Hickman and Adrian Garcia Ed Gonzalez.

The biggest surprise was that both guys oppose campus carry.  I still expect Gonzalez to win this election because of all the cycle's factors working against Hickman -- high Latin@ registration, Trump's radioactivity down the ballot, the appointed incumbent's poor handling of the county jail's varying and continuing crises, etc. -- but like Hillary Clinton, Gonzalez is making it closer than it should be.  If you buy the last polling result.

-- He supported Morris Overstreet in the Democratic primary for Harris County District Attorney, and I thought that would be good enough for a win, but I was wrong.  And now that guy (his first name is "Billionaire", doncha know) pushes all in for Kim Ogg.

The latest ($500,000) Soros contribution arrives just days after the Ogg campaign filed a quarterly finance report showing she received nearly $135,000 in campaign contributions from a PAC supported by Steve Mostyn, another major Democratic financier.

Incumbent Republican District Attorney Devon Anderson's political consultant, Allan Blakemore, trumpeted the Soros ad buy, accusing Ogg of aligning forces seeking to buy the district attorney's office.

"She has abandoned the values and standards of our community to become a puppet for those whose clear agenda is to corrupt the rule of law in Harris County," Blakemore said.

Blakemore forgot to use the word 'morals', or maybe he was just smart enough not to go there with an incumbent DA whose prosecutors jail mentally ill rape victims.  It's almost as predictable as Dan Patrick bleating about bathrooms while trumpeting you-know-who.

Wayne Dolcefino, a spokesman for the Ogg campaign, welcomed the contribution, adding that the race has received national attention following the jailing of a rape victim during Anderson's tenure.

"We welcome contributions from anyone in the country who wants to make people safer and actually remember what justice is," Dolcefino said. "This is a local election, but Devon's conduct has made this a national race."

This race shouldn't be close either, but Harris County Republicans may be able to muster for Anderson and hold on.  That would be a real shame for the second time.

-- There's a new Democrat in town, recently surfacing on one of the Houston region's two state Court of Appeals, and his name isn't Reggie Hammond or even Jim Sharp.

Justice Terry Jennings of the Texas First Court of Appeals, who has generated national news coverage by switching political parties, said the reaction has been "remarkably positive."

"I've even gotten Facebook messages from New Zealand," the Houston-based justice said Thursday by phone.

Jennings announced Saturday at the Harris County Democratic Party's Johnson, Rayburn & Richards Dinner that, after much reflection, he had decided to leave the Republican Party.

How much reflection and for how long, I wonder.

"...When I first ran for the Court of Appeals in 2000, moderates were welcome in the GOP," he said in his speech. "I was proud to run as a Republican -- the party of my father. Sadly, today in the Republican party, "moderate" is a dirty word. And today's Republican party has chosen a dark path I cannot take."

Stay woke, Justice Jennings.  Unfortunately he's on the ballot in two years, and all signs point to that being another wipeout for Democrats everywhere.

Jennings [...] said he probably will wait until spring to decide whether to run again in 2018.

I'll guess 'retirement from the bench and a lucrative partnership with a local powerhouse firm'.  Still wonder why people say Republicans and Democrats are all the same?  You shouldn't.

The Weekly Twenty Twenty Update

Let's open the Update with some Texas events happening this weekend.  First:

HCDP is excited to have @SenGillibrand kicking off our Presidential Candidate Speaker Series on Saturday, May 4th at @StJohnsDowntown. We hope you plan to join to us. Admission is ONLY $5 and EVERYONE is welcome. Get your tickets today! #2020election https://t.co/E2XVM1z6sj https://t.co/GHtDtPjTtv

— Harris Democrats (@harrisdemocrats) April 26, 2019

Mayor Pete is also holding a Houston fundraiser Saturday night (the cheap seats are all sold).

Update: The TexTrib, via Progrexas, covered Buttigieg's address to Dallas County Democrats at their Johnson-Jordan dinner as well as Beto's Friday night rally in Cowtown.  Excerpts:

Before launching into his 2020 stump speech, O’Rourke addressed a more urgent matter: the mayoral election Saturday in Fort Worth. Deborah Peoples, the chairwoman of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, is challenging incumbent Betsy Price, one of the few remaining GOP big-city mayors. She is vying for an unprecedented fifth term.

Bernie Sanders has also endorsed Peoples.  And Julián Castro will appear at a GOTV rally alongside the challenger Saturday morning.

From the start of his speech, Buttigieg emphasized the need for Democrats to be able to express their values in a way that wins over Republicans. Democrats in red states have an advantage, he explained, saying they often have developed “a better vocabulary for making those values better understood and making those values understood by more people, and I believe that is especially needed in (this) moment.”

===============

With Sen. Mike Bennet's declaration -- he is the second Coloradoan conservaDem, tailing former Gov. John Frackenlooper -- the field is up to ...

There are now 21 Democrats running for president. https://t.co/c8NQ0puztV pic.twitter.com/krUB8przkn

— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) May 3, 2019

Squishy centrist/solid establishmentarian Jonathan Capehart of the WaPo polled his Twitizens and found they prefer two of the front-running women.

Opinion: What happened when I asked Twitter to choose among the 21 Democrats https://t.co/8MYMPHIjrK

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) May 3, 2019

On we go to FiveThirtyEight.com's wrangle, augmented by yours truly.


Stacey Abrams

Abrams announced Tuesday that she would not seek the Democratic nomination in Georgia’s 2020 Senate election, prompting increased speculation that she could mount a presidential bid, particularly after she said in a radio interview that day that she “keeps giving thoughts to other opportunities.”

Abrams spoke in Houston on Friday, at a luncheon sponsored by Annie's List.

“I’m here to tell you a secret that makes Breitbart and Tucker Carlson go crazy: We won,” Abrams said to loud applause before teasing a potential second bid for governor. “I am not delusional. I know I am not the governor of Georgia -- possibly yet.”

Abrams is one of several high-profile Democrats (as we finally learned here in Deep-In-The-Hearta, Joaquin Castro is another) taking a pass on '20 US Senate bids.  This still-unfolding development bodes poorly for retaking the upper Congressional chamber next year.  By extension, items of Democratic criticality such as impeachment, blocking undesirable SCOTUS and other federal judicial appointments, honoring international treaties, and so forth would be nullified -- as they are presently -- should Democrats fail to nominate a candidate who can defeat Trump.


Joe Biden

After entering the presidential race last week, Biden appeared on ABC’s “The View,” was interviewed with his wife, Dr. Jill Biden, by Robin Roberts of “Good Morning America,” and then held his first campaign event Monday in Pittsburgh before continuing on to Iowa for a two-day tour of the Hawkeye State.

 In Pittsburgh, Biden courted union voters and earned the endorsement of the International Association of Fire Fighters, a decision met with derision by President Donald Trump, who launched a tweetstorm Wednesday in the wake of the announcement.

During the interview that aired on “Good Morning America” Tuesday, the Bidens addressed issues from the former vice president’s past that have drawn criticism, including the treatment of Anita Hill during Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ 1991 confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee in which Biden said she wasn’t “treated well.”

“I apologize again because, look, here’s the deal. She just did not get treated fair across the board. The system did not work,” he added.

That's an understatement.  Biden's entry has been greeted with a host of prior questionable remarks, videotaped for posterity.  Here's one.

Joe Biden: "I actually like Dick Cheney... I get on with him. I think he's a decent man."

He adds that Cheney was "extremely helpful" about the "legal parameters" of the VP office. Without irony.

Mondale then says his view of Cheney is "a little bit different." The crowd laughs pic.twitter.com/udjSlSCrZV

— Emma Vigeland (@EmmaVigeland) May 2, 2019

Anita Hill isn't accepting Joe Biden's apology

Joe Biden's promise to Make America Great Again

Biden launches bid with fundraiser filled with corporate lobbyists and GOP donors

All this doesn't seem to be affecting his popularity much in the early going.


Cory Booker

The New Jersey senator wrapped up his 'Justice for All' tour last weekend before heading back to Washington to take part in the Senate Judiciary Committee questioning of Attorney General William Barr.

During the hearing, Booker took issue with the language Barr used in his press conference the morning of the release of the Mueller report, saying his remarks were “alarming” and called “into question (his) objectivity when you look at the actual context of the report.”

He later called for Barr’s resignation, tweeting that “it’s become clear that (Barr) lied to us and mishandled the Mueller report.”

Booker's moment seemed a bit more glorious than suggested here.  Look here:

When Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., brought up how then-Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort shared polling data in August 2016 with his former business associate, Konstantin Kilimnik -- identified by prosecutors as having ties to Russian intelligence -- Barr struggled.

"What information was shared?" Barr asked, prompting Booker to reply, "Polling data was shared, sir. It's in the report."

"With who?" Barr followed up.

Pete Buttigieg

The South Bend, Indiana mayor and his husband Chasten are featured on the cover of Time Magazine this week, and the pair’s relationship and Buttigieg’s recent rise in the presidential field are featured in a profile.

Buttigieg calls himself a “policy guy” in the story, elaborating, “Every good policy that I’ve developed in my administration happened not because I cooked it up on the campaign, kept the promise intact and then delivered it, but because I stated a priority in one of my campaigns, ­interacted with my legislative body and my community, and developed something that really served people well.”

Chasten Buttigieg was the focus of his own Washington Post profile, in which his coming-out story, bout with homelessness and popularity on Twitter were detailed.

The corporate media is still fawning, but the bloom is coming of the rose elsewhere.

I like the man, but hot take: Mayor Pete Buttigieg is gonna milk his slightly above average looks to appeal to moderate women who feel comfortable sexualizing him because they don't feel threatened by his sexuality. https://t.co/virmu6sxfo

— 🇲🇽🇱🇧 grandiloquent 🎭grandma (@nuggetnatz) May 3, 2019

'Zero policies'?  What 'zero policies'?

How hard is it for women like Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris to breakthrough?

Pete Buttigieg won’t commit to universal healthcare or a living wage. He has ZERO plans for college tuition help or early childhood education.

Media: OMG but he speaks Norwegian!!!

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

— [redacted] (@seankent) April 28, 2019

Vox's guide to where 2020 Democrats stand on policy

Ted Rall: The Democratic candidates on foreign policy


Julián Castro

Castro was one of the first presidential candidates to call for Barr to resign from his position.

 In an interview with CNN, he explained that he believed Barr was “completely compromised,” having “actively tried to mislead the public and Congress.”

The former Housing and Urban Development secretary toured tunnels beneath Las Vegas last weekend that have been used by some of the city’s homeless population as shelter, described later by a spokesperson it as an “eye-opening” experience.

Tulsi Gabbard

Gabbard’s focus on foreign policy continued this week, including in a Fox News interview in which she expressed concern over how the conflict in Venezuela would affect the U.S. and Russia.

“Any time we are in this situation where you have tensions being ratcheted up and this conflict being pushed closer and closer between nuclear-armed countries like the United States and countries like Russia and China, this is something that poses an existential threat to the American people,” the Hawaii congresswoman said.

Kirsten Gillibrand

The New York senator announced a 'clean elections' plan Wednesday, calling for public campaign financing to replace the “corrupting influence of big donors and special interests on politicians,” her campaign said in a press release.

The initiative would provide $200 to every adult U.S. citizen to allocate to the federal candidates of their choosing in order to fund campaigns. In order to be eligible to receive such donations, candidates would not be allowed to take contributions of over $200, according to the plan.

3/ Meanwhile, the liberal group End Citizens United (@StopBigMoney) is praising @SenGillibrand's campaign $$ reform plan, even though it doesn't overtly call for ending 'Citizens United'.

Statement from the group: pic.twitter.com/9dLAVgthSI

— Dave Levinthal (@davelevinthal) May 1, 2019

Kamala Harris

After Harris’ questioning of Barr during Wednesday’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, the California senator was singled out by Trump who said she was “probably very nasty” to the attorney general, during an interview with the Fox Business Network.

Harris joined with several other Democratic candidates in calling for Barr’s resignation, saying in an MSNBC interview that he was aware he was misleading the public and tweeting that his responses to her questions at the hearing -- including his acknowledgement that he did not review all of the special counsel’s underlying evidence prior to writing his summary of the Mueller report -- were “unacceptable.”

Seth Moulton

In an interview with Reuters, Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., criticized his fellow 2020 presidential candidates Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for pushing America “too far left,” and for being just as “divisive” as Trump.

“The problem with some of the candidates in our party is that they’re divisive in the same way that Trump has been so divisive,” Moulton said. “They are pitting different parts of America against each other.”

I sincerely hope that the next time I include Moulton in a weekly update, it is to reference his withdrawal from the race.

What does it mean to be a 'Centrist' if you never attack Republicans over botched foreign policy?


Beto O’Rourke

O’Rourke released his first major presidential candidacy policy proposal outlining what he would do as president to combat what his campaign calls the “existential threat of climate change.”

The $5 trillion plan calls for federal investment to “transform” the nation’s infrastructure “and empower our people and communities to lead the climate fight,” according to a campaign memo released Monday.

O’Rourke also signed a “No Fossil Fuel Money pledge” to reject and return donations by oil and gas executives.

Inslee hits O'Rourke: 'He did not lead on climate change in Congress'

"Beto O'Rourke will need to answer why he did not lead on climate change in Congress and why he voted on the side of oil companies to open up offshore drilling,” the Inslee campaign wrote. “We look forward to a climate debate — where voters will have the opportunity to hear about which candidates have a strong, extensive record of fighting climate change and which candidates have a record of siding with fossil fuel companies."

I think Beto will be an afterthought by the fall, and if I'm right, it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see him enter the race against John Cornyn.


Bernie Sanders

In response to Barr’s Senate testimony on the Mueller report, the Vermont senator appeared on Sirius XM radio and called his actions “outrageous,” but did not go as far to call for his resignation as some of his other 2020 presidential competitors have.

Sanders will be in Iowa this weekend and is set to deliver a major agriculture policy address in Osage.

How Bernie Sanders Missed the Mark at She The People

This is the best analysis I have read on this topic.


Eric Swalwell

The California congressman officially qualified for the Democratic presidential primary debates after polling at at least 1 percent in three polls recognized by the Democratic National Committee.

Following the deadly shooting at the Poway, California synagogue, Swalwell was the only presidential candidate to directly mention Trump, saying in a response to Trump’s tweet, “Spare us your thoughts and prayers. It’s an alibi for inaction. You told the NRA yesterday you’d keep dangerous guns in the hands of dangerous people. We will take it from here with action.”

Elizabeth Warren

A Quinnipiac University poll published this week showed the senator from Massachusetts up eight points and ranked second behind Biden.

Warren, in an Essence Magazine op-ed, rolled out her latest policy proposal announcements, on how she intends to improve the structure of the country’s health care system when it comes to the “epidemic” of maternal mortality rates of women of color.

Warren also found herself in a Twitter back-and-forth with Amazon after she described the company as a giant corporation that’s using it’s influence to stomp out the little guys, saying sellers who use their marketplace are seeing “record sales every year.”

Bill Weld (R)

The former Massachusetts governor penned an op-ed weighing in on Barr’s Senate testimony on the Mueller report.

While Weld has stopped short of calling for Barr’s resignation, he did target the attorney general in his New Hampshire Journal op-ed saying, “Barr’s own remarks make clear that his review of the Mueller Report was limited to whether to seek criminal charges against the President or members of his campaign on the issue of collusion.”

Socratic Gadfly reviewed Weld's chances.

Read about the candidates I left off here.

I was wrong about Trump.

So admits Matt Bai of Yahoo as well, but we'll get to his take in a moment.  Here's what I wrote way back on November 13, six weeks ago.

Despite what I have said repeatedly about polls, I'm anxious to see what they reveal about a week or two from (the time Trump asked 'how stupid were the people of Iowa').  This feels like a turning point for a couple of candidates.   The conservative Borg has been completely unpredictable to this point, but a settling-out of the real lunacy of Trump and Carson to the regular loons of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio is somewhat overdue.

Ben Carson has indeed faded, but Trump's position in the polling has strengthened in the days since.  Over the Thanksgiving holiday, in time spent with family and friends, I asked the considerable number of conservatives and Republicans among our brood what they thought about the Donald.  All but one cringed and shook their head.  The one supporter -- who received his most recent book as a Christmas present and was delighted -- posed for a photograph at our Turkey Day meal at a Beaumont hotel ballroom, and just before the snapshot, I yelled, "Smile and say BERNIE SANDERS!"  A few minutes later she leaned over and told me quietly, "I get his e-mail; I like him".  I replied, "there's hope for you yet!"

So from an anecdotal perspective, I truly don't know what to make of the Trump phenomenon.  Matt Bai agrees with my status today, however ...

For many months now, like the anxious producers of some hot reality show, the American media has been waiting for Donald Trump to get up onstage and say the one thing that will lead to his swift and inevitable unraveling. (Waiting is not quite the same as hoping, but I’ll get to that in a minute.)

Sometimes it seems that Trump himself is trying frantically to find that edge of acceptable rhetoric and hurl himself over it, maybe because this business of running for president is a lot more tedious and exhausting than, say, crowning Miss Universe.

This week, as I’m sure you’ve heard by now, Trump told an audience in Michigan that Hillary Clinton had been “schlonged” in 2008 (a variation on the Yiddish word for penis that he seems to have invented on the spot, but that is now assured to outlive the Yiddish language itself), and he made fun of Clinton’s bizarre habit — “too disgusting to talk about” — of having to occasionally relieve herself in a bathroom.

He also clarified his difference with Vladimir Putin when it comes to these “lying, disgusting” reporters who cover him. “I hate some of these people, but I would never kill them,” Trump volunteered. “I would never kill them. But I do hate them.”

Well, that does it. If granting journalists a right to live doesn’t puncture Trump’s standing among conservative voters these days, then trust me, pretty much nothing will.

(By the way, note that Trump didn’t actually go so far as to condemn such violence, or even discourage it. He just declined to kill anyone himself. The man is busy.)

It’s time for me to admit I was wrong about Trump’s staying power. And it’s time for the rest of my industry to take a long look in the mirror and consider what we’ve wrought.

And so goes a fairly lengthy condemnation of the media coverage of Trump, which a week ago stood at approximately a 23-1 ratio to its coverage of Bernie Sanders.  I don't wish to enumerate once more all of the faults with corporate media news and politics coverage, especially since Bai does such a good job of it himself in the next excerpts.  He is most assuredly on point with the self-examination.

Because it’s clear now that Trump’s enduring popularity — his relentless assault on the weathered pillars of our public civility — is in no small part a reflection of an acid disdain for us.

Trump has always understood this. Look at the graphic terms in which he once attacked Fox’s Megyn Kelly. Or the way he viciously mocked Serge Kovaleski, a New York Times reporter who excels despite a physical disability. Or how he publicly berated Katy Tur, an NBC reporter, for sport.

Playing off the media isn’t novel, of course. When George H.W. Bush ran for reelection back in 1992, somebody — maybe it was his campaign, since in those days there weren’t any super-PACS — made a bumper sticker that read “Annoy the media. Re-elect Bush.”

For many years after Bush lost, you could still see those bumper stickers on any highway in America. It had little to do with the candidate.

They lasted on bumpers of pickup trucks in Midland, Texas (where I was) well into the mid-90's, as Bill Clinton's election began the Republican descent into fury and rage.  Nineteen-ninety four also marked the last year a Democrat was elected to a statewide office in Texas.

But that was a statement on liberalism and elitism, a kind of cultural homogeneity inside the nation’s largest media institutions. It was almost respectful. Bush would never have used the word “hate,” and neither would the people with the bumper stickers.

This is something more visceral, an emotion that’s been building in all segments of the electorate, to some extent, for decades.

This is a simmering reaction to smugness and shallowness in the media, a parade of glib punditry unmoored to any sense of history or personal experience. It’s about our love of gaffes and scandals, real or imagined, and our rigid enforcement of the politically correct.

It’s about the reflexive partisan fury we’ve been inciting in this country ever since the earliest days of cable TV, and more recently on the blogs and op-ed pages of newspapers that once set the standard for thoughtful deliberation but now need the clicks to survive.

This is dead on, and a little nauseating personally. 

And yet somehow, when the perfect and professional reality-show star comes along, utterly lost on policy but brilliant at harnessing resentment in long, incredibly watchable tirades, observers like me think his success must be short-lived. Why?

(And before you tell me Trump is more qualified to be president than a first-term senator from Illinois was, consider his final answer, after much evasion, when asked about the country’s “nuclear triad” in the last debate: “I just think nuclear — the power and the devastation are very important to me.”)

Trump is entirely different from a Barry Goldwater or a Pat Buchanan. He isn’t a conservative populist penned in by the outer boundaries of what’s politically constructive, bred ultimately to admire the same institutions he assails. I don’t think Trump has any fierce political conviction that couldn’t be abandoned overnight, just as fiercely.

Trump is an emotional extremist. He’s a pure performer, trained to manipulate the audience and mindful of no consequence beyond the ratings it produces.

Just don't believe the Facebook meme.

(I)t’s clear there’s a powerful symbiosis between Trump and the media. We need him for the narrative power, for the clicks and debate ratings and sheer fascination factor. He needs us for the free publicity and the easy, evocative foil.

Trump’s most useful opponent, the one who causes his most fervent following to stick, isn’t Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or even Hillary Clinton. It’s us.

So when I say there’s a difference between waiting and hoping, this is what I mean. This is the essential paradox that the American media has created for itself, and you can feel it becoming less and less tenable right now.

On one hand, we’re bewildered by the reality that a man can so debase our politics and continue to rise in polls, as if all the rules we’ve inherited and enforced are no longer remotely relevant. But at the same time, we need our standout contestant to hang around for sweeps week. He’s the star of the show.

We want to see Trump get “schlonged” for the same reasons we can’t bear to lose him, and he understands that dynamic better than anyone alive.

Do I think Trump is going to be the Republican nominee? No, I don’t. At the end of the day, I still tend to think he won’t win a single state. But I’ve been wrong about him so far, and I’ve very little confidence that I won’t keep being wrong for a while.

I think Bai is wrong: Trump shows no sign of losing momentum that I can discern.  The Washington Post's Jenna Johnson, via Prairie Weather, thinks the same as Bai, mostly because Trump's support includes a number of people without a clue as to how retail politics actually works.  If those two get it right, I'll refer back to this post in some future one with a plate of crow in front of me.

What I get from the WaPo article is that they're mad, but they're still not mad enough to get even.

(Randy and Bonnie Reynolds,) the West Des Moines couple who have two grown children, had never been to a political event before. Bonnie works in a mailroom; Randy is a press operator. They don’t live paycheck to paycheck, but it would take just one small catastrophe to push them there.

“In the end, everything that he’s saying might not happen if he is elected — but I’m willing to give it a shot,” said Randy Reynolds, 49, who used to vote for Democrats but switched to Republicans a decade ago. “I will give him 100 percent. . . . It would be amazing if the majority of things that he said would actually happen. That would be amazing.”

So, obviously, the couple plan to caucus for Trump on Feb. 1?

“We’re going to see,” Reynolds said. “With kids and grandkids and all this, it’s kind of hectic. . . . We’ll look into it. If our time is available, then yeah, maybe we’ll do it. Maybe. We’ll have to see.”

And ...

Linda Stuver, 61, said Trump is her top pick, although she also likes Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. During the last election cycle, she went to a rally for Mitt Romney, her first political event. The Trump rally was her second.

“This is only my second time I’ve ever been to one of these — that’s how annoyed I am with what’s happening to our country,” said Stuver, who lives in Des Moines and says she raised four children by cleaning houses and working other low-level jobs. “I can’t even have Obama be on TV anymore — I have to shut it off, that’s how irritated I am. Us old folks have seen a lot, and what’s happening in our country is not right.”

Is she annoyed and irritated enough to caucus?

“I don’t know,” she said, shaking her head. “I never have.”

Caucuses have always rewarded the most committed activists, which is why Hillary Clinton and the Texas Democratic Party lackeys minimized the influence of precinct conventions in the Lone Star State after Obama won them, and a very slim majority of Texas delegates, in 2008.  Can't blame that one on Debbie Wasserman Schultz (her fingerprints aren't all over it, that is).

It could be that Trump's support is a mile wide and an inch deep, and if so, and Ted Cruz pulls the upset in Iowa because his crew outworked the Trumpers, then the establishment's last gasp might wind up being Marco Rubio or Chris Christie or even John Kasich in New Hampshire.

After that is South Carolina, and Cruz -- or Trump -- might be on too hard a roll to slow.

Refer back to here and consider how convoluted the circumstances might get if Trump or Cruz is the nominee, and the establishment withholds support and tries to broker a compromise candidate next summer.  And then Laugh Out Loud.

Update: Here's an interesting take from Eclectablog, who sees Cruz winning the nomination even as Trump maintains his lead in the polls.