Wednesday, October 04, 2017

Our Revolution's Texas Tour this weekend

Attention Texas Democrats: this is your wake-up call.

Fresh on the heels of a big win in the Birmingham mayor's contest yesterday, the Bernie Sanders-backed Our Revolution folks are swinging through the Lone Star State this weekend, with Nina Turner and Jim Hightower headlining.

This is probably a progressive populist's last chance to get the party started here.  I won't be attending the H-Town get-together, so I hope someone who does will send me a report, or post some pics to social media.

Update: The Progressive Wing has dozens of Tweets, pictures, and video from the North Texas rally yesterday (scroll down into the comments).


Austin on Friday, October 6, Houston on Saturday, October 7 -- note this location has been changed from the one listed on the flyer above -- and then San Antonio that same Saturday evening, Dallas on Sunday, October 8, and Tyler on Sunday evening the 8th.  Yeah, hopefully the RGV and El Paso, maybe even the Panhandle, next time around.

Next week is the gubernatorial campaign kickoff for Tom Wakely in Blanco, Texas.  My phrase "Bernie Sanders in a cowboy hat" has been repeated twice now by those in the *ahem* mainstream media, mostly with some intended snark.  (I'm taking it as a compliment.)



I have, as regular clickers here will note, been harsh on Texas Democrats for their generational ineptitude, and Democrats generally for an unhealthy focus on Russian election influence.  More of that just this morning, and the debunking of last week's "bombshells" continues.

There's always time for a fresh start, and that's what Our Revolution and Wakely represent.  Take advantage of this one or keep doing what you've always done, Donks.  Your choice.

Monday, October 02, 2017

The Weekly Wrangle


The Texas Progressive Alliance -- a few members, anyway -- wonders why Democrats can't seem to generate many candidates or much enthusiasm for 2018.  Part of the reason may lie in a recent US House vote, where four of the state's most prominent Democrats -- Joaquin Castro, Lloyd Doggett, Beto O'Rourke, and Mark Veazey -- voted against a few small tax breaks for Hurricane Harvey victims.  Even Republicans were surprised, and explanations seemed unsatisfactory.

Here's the blog post and lefty news roundup from last week.

Off the Kuff laments the Fifth Circuit ruling that will allow some enforcement of the "sanctuary cities" law.

SocraticGadfly sees wingnuts creating red herrings and strawmen over Dallas' removal of the Robert E. Lee statue, and exposes their deliberate fallacies.

The F!^%*&ing Russians made headlines again, and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs cringed.

In Port Aransas, Texas Standard has an account from Cowboy Camp David, which is feeding the masses of Harvey victims and relief workers there.


Better Texas Blog takes note of the extension of the Obamacare enrollment period for those who've been affected by Hurricane Harvey.

jobsanger cites Rasmussen as an authority on the ignorance of the American electorate (and the irony is rich).

Grits for Breakfast sees Bexar County is ending arrests for small quantities of marijuana.

The Lewisville ISD discussed the 'R' word in in its workshop last week, reports the Texan Journal.

Chris Hooks at the Texas Observer sees Greg Abbott's hostility toward the metro areas of the state untempered even by the ravages of Hurricane Harvey.

The Texas Tribune reveals the piles of dark money behind the lack of reporting about the dangers posed by petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast in the wake (no pun intended) of Harvey.

David Collins at DBC Green Blog has a couple of posts about the callousness of Trump to the suffering of the people of Puerto Rico.

Neil at All People Have Value took a picture of electrical wires on a rainy day. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

F!^%*&ing Russians

Just when I thought it was out ...they pull it back in.  Last week it was Facebook.

-- Russian-bought Black Lives Matter ad on Facebook targeted Baltimore and Ferguson (also here)

-- Russians posed as American Muslims on Facebook

-- Obama tried to warn Zuckerberg about the MASSIVE Threat of Election HACKING on Facebook (also here; both link to original account at WaPo)

Caps mine.  I'm ashamed for the FORTUNE editors for that headline.  Tangentially ...

-- Facebook's Russian ads may be the tip of the iceberg (click-baitey, assumes "suspicious" facts not in evidence)

Think Progress commits a rare fumble here.

-- Was Facebook fooled by the Russians?

More thoughtful and thought-provoking. And the most interesting of all:

-- Facebook anonymously admits it ID'd Guccifer 2.0 in real time (and told the FBI about it)

Again, I’m sympathetic to the urge to blame Facebook for this election. But this article describes Facebook’s heavy-handed efforts to serve as a wing of the government to police terrorist content, without revealing that sometimes Facebook has erred in censoring content that shouldn’t have been. Then it reveals Facebook reported Guccifer 2.0 and DC Leaks to FBI, twice, with no further description of what FBI did with those leads.

Let's wrap up this part with a few more links.

-- 'Their aim was to sow chaos': Russian operatives used Facebook ads to exploit divisions during U.S. election

-- "Russia Targeted Swing States With Trump-Friendly Fake News" (Kevin Drum, MJ) directs to "Fake News on Twitter Flooded Swing States That Helped Trump Win".

While it’s unclear what effect such content ultimately had on voters, the new study only deepens concerns about how the 2016 election may have been tweaked by nefarious forces on Twitter, Facebook, and other social media. “Many people use these platforms to find news and information that shapes their political identities and voting behavior,” says Samantha Bradshaw, a lead researcher for Oxford’s Computational Propaganda Project, which has been tracking disinformation strategies around the world since 2014. “If bad actors can lower the quality of information, they are diminishing the quality of democracy.”

Well that's it, then.  Oxford.  Research.  Since 2014.

I can see all of those tens of thousands of former Democrats transformed into Trump Trained deplorables, logging in to Facebook, their adblockers inoperative, their tinfoil hats still in the roll, scrolling down their timeline past the prayer requests and "nobody reads my" posts, grinding their teeth at every Russian bot/troll farm meme.  And then they went out and voted for Jill Stein, of course.  Speaking of, the most face-palmey of all:

-- Russian-funded Facebook ads backed Stein, Sanders, and Trump

At least one touted Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, who Clinton says "may well have thrown the election to Trump."

Jill Stein and I are ROFLOAO at you.  How about some actual, factual, non-partisan, not-hyperventilating news on this topic?

-- What we know, and don't know, about Facebook, Trump, and Russia

If you only click on one link in this entire post, make it this one.  Twitter's time in the barrel is coming up, perhaps as this posts.

-- Twitter takes its turn in the Russian probe spotlight

-- Twitter, With Accounts Linked to Russia, to Face Congress Over Role in Election

-- What to expect in Twitter's Russia probe briefing (today)

--  Facebook, Google and Twitter have been asked to testify before Congress on Russia and the 2016 election

-- Russia Election Investigation: Facebook Now, Is Reddit Next?

Yeah, what about Instagram and Pinterest?  Weren't there some Russian bots hiding amongst the recipes and vacation photos?  How about 4chan?  Drudge?  Breitbart?  TMZ?  ESPN?

This is all so ridiculous.  I'm left with repeating myself from yesterday.  This time I'll use more links, because it just does not seem as if people get it if it's only me saying it.

-- Democrats Might Be Unable To Capitalize On Disgust For Republicans Due To Growing Disgust For Democrats Too

We very likely will see a wave election in 2018 which gives the Democrats the opportunity to pick up seats in protest against Donald Trump and the Republican Party. The Democrats have achieved victories this week in New Hampshire and Florida. However, there are also signs of danger for the Democrats, including lack of support among millennial voters and strong interest in a third party among all voters.

[...]

Antipathy towards both parties was also seen in a Gallup poll which shows that about sixty percent of Americans see a need for a third party ...


The Democrats had the opportunity to lock up much of the millennial vote in 2016 by nominating Bernie Sanders. Instead they used party rules in place since McGovern’s loss, along with further intervention in the process, to hand Hillary Clinton the nomination in a manner which was no different from choosing a candidate in the proverbial smoke filled rooms. This gave us a general election in which neither major party had an acceptable candidate, demonstrating the need for a third party. Unfortunately most of those who express the need for a third party did not actually vote for one.

This all leaves the question open as to whether Democrats will be able to take advantage of opposition to the Republicans, especially if they repeat the mistake they have made in recent elections and run as a Republican-lite party.

Bold emphasis is mine.  I'm on record as blogging that 2018 won't be the wave it could be if only Democrats weren't so fucking stupid as to believe that Russians hacked the election, Russian bots bought Facebook ads that pushed Trump to victory, and so on ad nauseum.  The clues -- why they lost, what mistakes they need to stop making -- are also in the news.  Some of the same sources as have been linked above, in fact.

-- A New Study Shows Just How Many Americans Were Blocked From Voting in Wisconsin Last Year

-- Careful New Study Finds at Least Thousands in Two Wisconsin Counties Didn’t Vote Because of Voter ID Requirements, Confusion Over Them

Okay then.  I will stop blaming Hillary Clinton for not having campaigned in the Cheesehead State as one of the primary causes for her loss.  No amount of whistlestops and barnstorms could have overcome this much voter suppression.  And speaking of ineffective campaigning ...

All the outreach activity by political campaigns, including door to door canvassing, phone banking, direct mail, and even advertising, has basically no effect on voters’ choice of candidate in general elections, according to a striking new academic study.

The new analysis covers 49 field experiments conducted in real US election campaigns, typically run with cooperation from the campaigns themselves.

Campaigns spend millions of dollars during general elections on canvassing; phone banking; advertising on TV, radio, and the internet; and other efforts designed to win over undecided voters and supporters of the opposing candidate. The new study’s authors, UC Berkeley political scientist Joshua Kalla and Stanford professor David Broockman, conclude that essentially no one targeted is persuaded.

So then... broadcast media spots, door-to-door blockwalking, direct mail, etc. don't work?!?  But Facebook and Twitter ads are guilty of throwing the 2016 election to Trump.  Let's include the qualifier, to be fair.

This doesn’t mean that political campaigns never matter. Kalla and Broockman find that these activities can persuade voters in primary elections and during ballot-initiative campaigns. Campaigns can still effectively turn out voters whose minds are already made up about a candidate, and voters can and do change their opinions when prompted by politicians they already support (something a previous study of Broockman’s confirmed).

That aside, this study is going to be severely problematic for the industry of political consultants who make their living on such things.  Not to mention the teevee and radio stations who earn their meat, potatoes, bread, and butter during political season.  I suppose you also might consider disregarding what I said just yesterday about working to persuade the low/no info non-voters.

I don't know, perhaps we should just ask our representatives to pass a law limiting political campaign contributions to a very low amount?  A similar law requiring broadcast media to provide a certain amount of airtime to politicos to discuss the issues during election season?  Make voting compulsory*, like they do in some countries?

All pretty outlandish notions, wouldn't you say?


*Compulsory does not actually mean 'compulsory' in some countries, for the record.

There is this thing called voting for NOTA, and there's also the ability to resolve the lingering angry-jackass problem of so-called "spoiler" candidates by using instant runoff voting, but the first time I ever heard of these was at a Green Party meeting, so they'll probably never come to pass nationally.

They make too much sense.

Update: You won't find a more ignorant collection of donkeys than at the beauty shop in Fort Bend County.  It's telling that a trans-bigot joke makes the headlines there.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Texas is still a non-voting state

As a reminder, one could read a blog post here on Trump every single day (and two on Sunday with cartoons), and that's what you'll find on most every blog in the right-hand column.  It's my belief, long-held, that the Democratic Party in which I was once a committed activist has fallen down so hard that they have become all but useless as a tool to stop the worst Republican legislation, nationally and most especially in Texas.  So the focus here will remain on what tools there are that can be used to slow the roll of these GOP cretins, and what Democrats should do in order to gain -- or regain -- both the respect and vote of those who, like me, have simply given up on them.

Below, the reveal from Michael Li, via his Twitter feed.


All blame assigned the two million four hundred thousand-plus Texans who chose to vote in 2016 but not for Trump or Clinton should now cease.  Following the blind binary logic employed to claim a victory where none exists in reality, if it was ever the intention of those who voted 'other' to instead cast a ballot to block, not for but against one of the two worst-in-history choices of the red/blue duopoly, then the pie chart above should disavow that false notion.  Partisans of the bipolar persuasion shouldn't spend any more effort trying to shame us into voting for their shitty candidates.  That effort can and should be more wisely spent convincing some of the six million registered non-voters -- you know, the people who don't pay much attention to politics, don't have much of an opinion either way, etc. -- to vote for your shitty candidate.  Less selling/spinning, simpler arguments, higher success and conversion ratios and all that.

Seems obvious to me but apparently not so much to others.

In Texas, just like California and roughly forty other states, the Electoral College outcome is foreordained.  My vote for Jill Stein did not contribute to electing Trump in 2016, any more than my vote for Stein in 2012 helped or hurt Barack Obama from being re-elected.  Someone voting for a minor party candidate is just not something a committed duopolist should be concerned about.  Getting people who are registered to vote, but didn't, to the polls for your man or woman should be the only thing that matters now.  There were over six million of those folks in the state of Texas in 2016, a number 50% greater than those who voted for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

You have one job in 2018, Democrats.  Focus.

Don't ask why they're not voting, or posit reasons you have divined for a Facebook post.  As odd as it may seem, non-voters actually are voting their self-interest, even if it seems they aren't (conservatives prefer to call them 'values', and are more adept at compromising them for the sake of political expediency, which explains Christians' continuing support of Trump: a Supreme Court that strikes down Roe v. Wade being just one example).  Don't scold them when they don't see things from your POV.  Just get off your couch and go talk to them.  Start with your neighbors in your home precinct.

I'd help, as I have for the past ten years, if you hadn't run me off with your scorn and ridicule for voting my conscience and principles.  You might be calling it my privilege, but that's just one more reason you're on your own now.  Maybe you haven't noticed, but some of the old guard is still doing that.  Shouldn't have to be said, but that's no way for Democrats to win elections.

But if you would rather ... go on and keep whining about the Russians, Russian ads on Facebook, hackable voting machines, voter photo ID, gerrymandering, and the host of other excuses for losing that you really can't do much about.  Until you turn out some votes for your party's candidates, that is.

Twenty-eighteen is going to be a difficult midterm for Democrats; they're likely to lose some Senate seats in Trump states, and Republican Senators once thought to be among the worst are going to be primaried from their hard right and lose, as in Alabama yesterday, or retire and be replaced by someone further right.  John McCain is going to die very soon, and the governor there is likely to appoint someone who thinks like him, thus the GOP votes against Obamacare repeal are dwindling, and that bill will come back sooner than later.

Here in Texas, Beto O'Rourke remains a little mealy-mouthed on Medicare for All.  That's not going to get him over the hump no matter how much Twitter porn Ted Cruz's staff 'likes', as Jon Tilove at the Statesman pointed out.  And there are some Democrats who still can't see any gubernatorial candidates, though there are two: Mr. International Leather and Bernie Sanders in a cowboy hat, as Leif Reigstad at Texas Monthly posted a couple of days ago (disregard the attempts at snark).  It's certainly understandable that these candidates are invisible to the state's ConservaDems; they should concentrate, as I have previously advised, on recruiting Joe Straus to run.  Even Big Jolly's readers want to see it happen, so it would be a bipartisan collaboration.  Clue to the neolibs and the corporate media continuing to ask him: forget about Hamlet Castro.  Please.

And as blogged one month ago (scroll to the very end), the scrum to go up against John Cumbersome has indeed winnowed, by word and by deed.  Alex Triagesyphilis wormed his way right out of contention by reprising the role of Jon Ossoff, raising tons of money while exhorting half-measures on Medicare for All.  (The DNC, and Ben Ray Lujan of the DCCC, approve this message.)  He and corporate lawyer Lizzie Fletcher can go stand next to James Cargas; Laura Moser and Jason Westin are dueling for the Democratic progressive lead.

I like some of the D slate as currently comprised; Kim Olson for ag commish is notable.  Whether or not I can cast a ballot next March in the Blue primary, however, depends on whether the Texas Greens intend to muster some effort to get on the ballot.

So far, that effort is as scarce as a Democrat running against Ken Paxton.