Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Scattershooting sanity: per-diems, Straus v. Patrick, and straight-ticket voting

Not this kind of scattershooting.


-- Following up on this post, the Texas Ethics Commission approved -- despite stated objections from chairman Paul Hobby -- a per-diem increase for state legislators, which means the legions of Austin lobbyists can spend more on plying them with food and drink.  Kirk Watson is a voice of sanity in this regard.

The public would know a lot more about which lawmakers are getting wined and dined under legislation filed Monday by state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin.

Watson filed three bills that would effectively shut down a giant loophole that allows lobbyists — often under pressure from legislators — to avoid naming names when they fill out their mandatory spending and entertainment reports with the Texas Ethics Commission.

Watson said he’s not casting “aspersions” on anyone but hopes his legislation will increase public confidence in state officials as they interact with lobbyists representing various interests at the Capitol. State Rep. Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth, has filed similar legislation, but Watson's bills take the concept a few steps further. They extend the reporting requirements to spending on relatives of state officials while building in protection against future loopholes.

“Anything we can do to assure confidence in that and assure that it’s being done in the appropriate way, we should,” Watson said. “And that is generally best served by better reporting, better disclosure and more knowledge.”

Do you suppose this is the kind of ethics reform Governor Abbott has in mind when he gives the State of the State later this morning?  Maybe, but I doubt it.

-- There's a real showdown brewing between the Texas House and Senate, which actually means the Speaker and the Lieutenant Governor.  How it pans out might be the biggest story of the 84th session.

House Speaker Joe Straus became the legislative Border Patrol last week, tapping the brake when Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick proposed booking the National Guard for an extended stay on the Texas-Mexico line.

[...]

Patrick wants to put in $12 million to keep those troops in place until May, which would give him time to push for a longer deployment during the legislative session.

Straus called him on it, saying in effect that only Gov. Greg Abbott, as the state’s commander in chief, has the power to play army.

[...]

Abbott has not said anything about the arm-wrestling, at least in public.

This tension is not just about the border thing.

In an interview with James Henson, a Texas Tribune pollster and head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, Straus added to the list that starts with border security. He said there are questions to resolve about blocking colleges’ bans on concealed handguns and opposes the repeal of in-state tuition for certain children of undocumented immigrants. That puts him at odds with Patrick on those issues. During the weeks ahead, we all get to find out whether the House and the Senate are taking the same positions as their leaders on those issues.

But it’s not just about issues, either.

Go read the rest.  Large fault lines are bound to crack open between the Tea Party Caucus and the Sanity Caucus in both chambers.  No bets taken yet on who has or could get the upper hand.  It'll all play out over the next four months or so.

-- Speaking of even more sanity, Republicans agree that straight-party voting in Texas must come to an end.  To wit, State Representative Ron Simmons, Republican from Carrollton:

Virtually all voters educate themselves on candidates at the top of the ticket (president, governor, etc.). But many voters, partially because of straight-ticket voting, make little or no effort to educate themselves on the candidates at the bottom of the ticket running for offices that have the most direct effect on individual citizens — think county clerk, county commissioner, justice of the peace and state representative. These voters simply check the one box, either Democrat or Republican, and move on without giving it a second thought.

This is bad for Texas.

Let me give you just one example. My Democratic opponent last year was the vice presidential candidate for the Socialist Party USA in 2012. In our race, he put forth little effort to inform voters about himself or his platform. However, on Election Day he received about 35 percent of the vote — almost identical to the percentage of the vote that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis received in the district. Even I, a conservative Republican, don’t believe that 35 percent of Democrats in my district are Socialists or believe in what Socialists believe. But the way they voted in November tells a different story.

The answer to this is to join the 39 other states in the U.S. that have no straight-ticket voting. Voters will still be able to vote a straight-party ticket, but they’ll have to take a little extra time to go step by step down the ballot and select a candidate for each elected office. This will hopefully encourage voters to learn about the candidates in each race. But even if voters choose not to educate themselves, they can still vote along party lines or decide to not vote for any candidates in a particular race.

Are our liberty and way of life not important enough to really know whom we’re voting for to run our local and state governments? If people don’t make the effort, those who want to deceive, manipulate and abuse our representative form of government for their gain will be the only ones left standing in our halls of government.

I’ve filed House Bill 1288 to eliminate straight-ticket voting in Texas. I encourage you to contact your state representative and state senator to request their support of this legislation.

I signed.  But I still think it's cool that a Socialist disguised as a Democrat got 35% of the vote in the Dallas suburbs, even if nearly everyone that voted for him was likely a moron.  It was the scourge of straight-ticket votes, after all, that helped Archie Bunker get elected Texas agriculture commissioner, defeating Junior Samples, the (alleged) Democrat.

Another Republican state representative -- not exactly renowned for sanity -- has filed a similar bill, but it limits the partisan designation removal to judicial candidates and county executives.  That's still a good thing.

State Rep. Jason Villalba has filed legislation that would exempt judges and county officials from straight-ticket ballots.

The bill relates to elections in Texas’ largest counties, including Dallas County. The offices of sheriff, district attorney, tax assessor and constable would be removed from party-line voting. Criminal and civil court judges would also be exempt.

“We need to get away from straight-ticket voting and focus more on qualifications, criteria and ability, rather than party affiliation,” Villalba said.

[...]

Villalba, R-Dallas, said he prefers removing all “non-policy making elected offices” from partisan elections, but that would take a Constitutional referendum.

“If we thought we could get a Constitutional Amendment passed, that’s the direction we would go,” Villaba said.

As it stands, Villabla is unlikely to get this bill through the Legislature. Most Democrats and Republicans like the current system.

“It will be a tough one,” Villalba said.

Strong bipartisan support for straight-ticket voting in Texas.  Imagine that.

There is, as you might suspect, a hidden agenda for these bills filed by two Dallas-area Republicans: they think they might have a shot at swinging Dallas County back into the red column.  Despite whatever nefarious intentions may exist, it's still on Democrats to educate their voters and potential ones, turn them out on Election Day, and otherwise put forth the required effort to win elections, not rely on a tool that allows those who can drag themselves to the polling place their fifteen seconds' worth of civic engagement every two years.  Not to be too harsh about it, but it's lazy and a little craven to depend on STV to keep you in power in the big cities where the intelligent people have congregated, and the gerrymandered minority districts Republicans have allowed you to keep.

There's only so much blaming the media in this day and age that they deserve.  I fault the emerging Idiocracy myself, and that includes us all at some depth.

What the block on Obama's immigration action means

Vox has it.

-- Relief is delayed for millions of people

Here's what this means: Until this ruling is reversed or a different ruling comes down in the future, the federal government isn't allowed to do anything to implement either of the new programs President Obama announced in November to protect unauthorized immigrants from deportation.

Between the two programs, millions of immigrants were supposed to be eligible for deferred action (three years of protection from deportation) and work permits. Neither of those programs had actually started accepting applications yet, although one was supposed to start on Wednesday. Now they won't be able to start until further notice.

[...]

-- Why this is a serious threat to Obama's immigration policy

[...]

When the administration created the first deferred-action program in 2012, for young unauthorized immigrants, they discovered the success of the program relied on people signing up — and on the ground, organizers learned that finding eligible immigrants and getting them to apply was the hardest part. Now, community groups are trying to educate a much larger, more diffuse immigrant population about the new deferred-action programs, and persuade them that it's safe to apply. But news and misinformation about the lawsuit is spreading confusion and fear among the very people these groups are trying to reach.

Organizers are worried about a "chilling effect": by the time applications do open for deferred action, immigrants will have been intimidated out of applying, because they won't believe the program is safe or permanent.

-- Does this mean Obama's executive actions have been found unconstitutional?

No. The reason that Judge Hanen is stopping Obama's actions actually isn't about the Constitution at all. As Josh Blackman, a professor at the South Texas College of Law who filed a brief on behalf of the states in this case, says, "Generally, courts will not reach the constitutional question unless they need to."

Instead, Hanen's ruling is about a procedural law called the Administrative Procedures Act, and in particular the "notice and comment requirement" which is the typical procedure for making federal regulations. According to Cecilia Wang, Director of the Immigrant Rights Project for the ACLU, Hanen's ruling says that "if (the government) wanted to do these things it should have provided notice in the Federal Register, with period for comment." But because the Obama administration didn't do that for these actions, the ruling says, it violated the law.

Furthermore, this isn't even Judge Hanen's final opinion on the matter. This ruling is an injunction: it means that while Judge Hanen hasn't decided whether or not the president's executive actions are unconstitutional or illegal, the government has to stop acting on them while the judge makes up his mind.

[...]

-- What happens next?

At this point, it's up to the Department of Justice to decide whether they want to ask for a stay — basically, something to enjoin the injunction. They're (obviously) expected to do that. Then it'll be up to the Fifth Circuit to consider the stay. If they side with the federal government, the program will start running again; if they shoot down the federal government again, implementation will have to wait.

The ruling on the stay will determine whether or not the president's policies move forward for the next several months. During that time, the Fifth Circuit will be considering whether to uphold Judge Hanen's injunction. That could take four to five months, if they fast track the case, or seven to eight months if they don't. At the end of that time, they'll have another opportunity to stop the program or restart it: even if they grant the government a stay this winter, if they uphold Judge Hanen's ruling later in the year, the government has to stop again.

Meanwhile, Judge Hanen himself still has to issue his final ruling on whether or not the executive actions were constitutional.

ThinkProgress.

-- The Silver Lining

Ironically, however, the fact that Hanen’s opinion casts a cloud of doubt over the legality of DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) may be its most hopeful sign for undocumented immigrants. The Arizona decision did not simply emphasize the executive branch’s “broad discretion” over many immigration-related matters, it was handed down just days after Obama announced the DACA program. Indeed, Justice Antonin Scalia railed against DACA in his opinion dissenting from the majority in Arizona.

If a majority of the justices found DACA legally problematic, it would be very unusual for them to emphasize the scope of the executive branch’s discretion just days after President Obama announced the DACA program. It would be even more unusual for them to do so when one of their brethren specifically criticized that policy in dissent.

The fact that Hanen’s logic appears to extend to DACA, in other words, may be Hanen’s undoing. A majority of the Supreme Court, including two of the Court’s Republicans, have already hinted that Hanen’s opinion is wrong.

So to summarize: Greg Abbott went shopping for a federal judge to rule in his favor, found one, got just what he wanted, and now the case slowly moves on to the Fifth Circuit, and from there to the Supreme Court.

Abbott will, by all appearances, eventually lose yet another lawsuit to the feds, with which he has a .230 batting average to this point.  That's bottom-third of the lineup, and on some teams, worth a seat on the bench (not the judicial one, the pine one).  Another typical lose-even-as-he-thinks-he's-won scenario for Abbott.  And his conservative base will only complain about his waste of taxpayer dollars, activist judges, and frivolous lawsuits when they get beaten.

Update: Judge Hanen is a crank, and the injunction creates lots of hurdles for the administration to clear.  Which was precisely his point.

Monday, February 16, 2015

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance sends warm thoughts to everyone who's digging themselves out from under the snow again as it brings you this week's roundup of the best of the Lone Star lefty blogs from last week.


Off the Kuff reports on opposition to the proposed high speed rail line.

Libby Shaw, writing for Texas Kaos and contributing to Daily Kos, is appalled by efforts to pass an open carry law in Texas. What should Texans fear the most? ISIS or Open Carry?

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is tired of Republicans using hurtful, hateful tactics to appease their racist base and cause harm to the people in the Valley.

Neil at All People Have Value wrote about the ongoing federal cover-up of a plot to kill members of Occupy Houston in 2011. Occupy Houston protestors were peaceful people. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

WCNews at Eye on Williamson notes that the Texas GOP plans to give the wealthy in Texas a tax cut, no matter what. The cost will be high for everyone else: The Cost of Tax Cuts.

Texas Leftist reports on the most significant changes to the Houston region's public transit infrastructure since the creation of METRO. With System Reimagining now approved and the final route maps in selected, transit in Texas' largest city will never be the same.

Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein is coming to Denton this weekend, and Houston next week, as part of the kickoff to her bid for the presidency of the US. PDidddie at Brains and Eggs has the details.

The Lewisville Texan-Journal updates the list of events for the area this coming week.

Egberto Willies reminds us not to overlook that 'atheist' part about the man who shot three Muslim honor students in North Carolina.

Dos Centavos was on the scene for the Americans United presentation on "The Bible in Texas Schools? Why Not?"

And jobsanger emphasizes that Dan Patrick's desire to keep Texas National Guard troops on the Rio Grande border is butting heads with fiscal responsibility.

=======================

And here are some posts of interest from other Lone Star bloggers.

The Anti-Media has a list of the ticking time bombs in Texas.

Moving forward after the jury verdict in Houston's equal rights ordinance trial, Free Press Houston says that we still need a HERO.

Socratic Gadfly points out that state Rep. Molly White is one of the many reasons that we just can't have nice things in Texas.

Lone Star Ma calls on doctors to do a better job explaining the need for vaccinations.

Texas Vox would like you to tell President Obama to veto the Keystone XL pipeline, while Tar Sands Blockade wants us to remember that KXL South is already fully operational.

Jef Rouner and his five-year-old daughter encounter an open carry demonstration.

Purple City sees cultural undertones in the opposition to the proposed high speed rail line in Texas.

Texans Together reports on the State of Black Houston 2015.

Jeff Balke goes back to high school to explore when kids and faith collide.

Grits for Breakfast is encouraged by the possibility of grand jury reform.

Austin Contrarian demonstrates how street design can lead to major traffic problems.

Joe the Pleb at BOR takes a look at the Texas rebels who are up in arms about a 13-year-old boy's plan to rename "Confederate Heroes Day".

Finally, Fascist Dyke Motors is welcoming our new aquatic overlords in her post entitled "Phantom Fins of Pharmacology".

Jill Stein in Denton and Houston later this month

*Updated schedule of events with dates in College Station and Laredo below.

The presumptive Green Party presidential nominee knows that the Lone Star State is the cradle of all of the worst of conservative experiments incubated, cultivated, and then exported nationally, and she has a base of support here (however nascent it may actually be).  Which is why Texas is at the top of her list for this early campaign tour, following last week's announcement of her intent to seek the presidency of the United States.

Next weekend in Denton, the first Texas city to ban fracking:


The South by Southwest Ecosocialist Conference will take place beginning Friday, February 20 at 5 pm and lasting through Sunday, February 22, at Wooten Hall, on the campus of the University of North Texas in Denton. The event is sponsored by System Change Not Climate Change; coalition partners include the Ecosocialist Coalition, of which Solidarity, the Socialist Party-USA is a member, along with ISO, DSA, and others. SCNCC currently has Texas chapters in the DFW Metroplex and Houston.

Speakers at the conference will include Green Party 2014 presidential candidate Jill Stein and ecosocialist author Chris Williams, as well as panel discussions featuring a broad spectrum of Metroplex activists. Panels will include intersectionality between the climate and environmental crises and social and economic justice issues. The conference will also include nonviolent civil disobedience training and a "World Cafe" small group discussion session.

Cost is $50 for standard registration, $25 for low income, and $75 for supporters wishing to make an additional donation to support the cause.  Registration is now free, as fundraising has exceeded expectations.  Donations remain welcome.  Please register online at this URL: http://www.southbysouthwestecosocialistconference.com


The website also provides detailed location info for persons unfamiliar with the UNT campus and a daily schedule for the conference. The facility can accommodate up to 120 attendees, so please register now.

And following that, in Houston. 


She will likely meet with striking USW members on the picket lines at area refineries, with some additional speaking engagements at community colleges in the suburbs in the days following.  Details on those appearances to come later.

Gallup poling has revealed for several years now that Americans want other options besides the Democrats and Republicans.

A majority of U.S. adults, 58%, say a third U.S. political party is needed because the Republican and Democratic parties "do such a poor job" representing the American people. These views are little changed from last year's high. Since 2007, a majority has typically called for a third party.


The results are based on Gallup's Sept. 4-7 (2014) Governance poll. The first time the question was asked in 2003, a majority of Americans believed the two major parties were adequately representing the U.S. public, which is the only time this has been the case. Since 2007, a majority has said a third party is needed, with two exceptions occurring in the fall of the 2008 and 2012 presidential election years.

Italicized emphasis at the end of that excerpt is mine, because you may recall that -- among many similar electoral results -- Kenneth Kendrick, the only sane candidate running for Texas Agriculture Commissioner in 2014, polled as high as 9% in mid-October... but received just under 2% of the vote.

Maybe this is obvious already, but I'll let Sudden Clarity Clarence underscore it.


Wake up and smell the coffee, y'all.  Get yourself out to one of the events above and see if Jill Stein's words and actions are what you've been looking for.  If they do, then follow through on that the next time a presidential election rolls around.

Update (2/23): Stein's itinerary now includes a speaking engagement at Texas A&M in College Station on Tuesday the 24th and a trip to the Rio Grande Valley on Wednesday the 25th.  Find all the details -- times, locations, etc. at the calendar posted here.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

#HERO trial goes into overtime

Charles is on this case, so just know that -- in the immortal words of Senator John Blutarsky -- "nothing's over unless WE say it is".



Applicable to both the pro-HEROs and the cons.  And then on to the next, whatever this forthcoming ruling presents.

The city claimed victory Friday when the jury in the trial surrounding Houston's equal rights ordinance found that the law's opponents submitted a repeal referendum petition that contained forgery and other flaws.
However, it issued a series of decisions that were far from a clean sweep for either side.

The ruling is not final, and a judge will now consider the jury's findings about the work of more than 100 circulators of the petition that the city rejected last summer, citing overwhelming notary and signature-gatherer errors.

District Judge Robert Schaffer was not present for Friday's ruling after nearly six days of jury deliberation. Attorneys on both sides said he will now begin counting which signatures are valid to see if opponents have reached the needed 17,269-signature threshold. Schaffer retains wide legal discretion in what he deems valid.

The jury's ruling Friday will trigger a series of legal dominoes that, eventually, will yield a definitive answer: The judge will count the signatures, issue a decision on whether the petition is valid and then the case will almost certainly go to the appellate courts.

If the legal battles carry us through most of 2015, then there may be no referendum on November's ballot, and that's IF there are enough good signatures, as determined by Judge Schaffer and then decided again by one of the two Courts of Appeal with jurisdiction over Harris County (Republican-dominated).  From there to the SCOTX, on some indeterminable timeline.  Harris County's conservatives will make every effort to turn the November '15 municipal elections into a referendum on HERO anyway, regardless of which court decides what and when they do so.

As Charles has also detailed, we have better things to discuss in this year's city elections.

Oops pushes all in on Iowa, and more Sweet '16

The consultants must laugh behind their hands.  It's like taking candy from a baby.  (A Downs Syndrome baby; if I wanted to be mean).

Former Gov. Rick Perry has brought on board four longtime Republican operatives to help him assemble a likely 2016 presidential campaign in Iowa.

RickPAC, Perry’s political action committee, announced Sunday it has hired Robert Haus, Andy Swanson, Dane Nealson and Kip Murphy.

[...]

Haus co-chaired Perry’s 2012 campaign in Iowa. Since then, he has been informally guiding Perry’s political travels to the Hawkeye State, accompanying him on swings through the state and connecting him with local power-brokers.

Nealson and Murphy were also involved in Perry’s 2012 bid. Nealson served as Central Iowa field director for Perry’s campaign, while Murphy was Western Iowa coordinator for a group that encouraged Perry to run. Also during the 2012 cycle, Nealson worked for Tim Pawlenty and Murphy for Rick Santorum. Swanson was the top organizer in Iowa for Pawlenty’s 2012 bid as well as John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign.

In recent weeks, Perry’s potential rivals have made serious moves to lay the groundwork for Iowa campaigns. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has hired David Kochel, an Iowa-based strategist who advised both of Mitt Romney’s bids for the White House, while Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s PAC has leased office space in a Des Moines suburb.

The Iowa hires come days after Perry announced another addition to the team he has in place for a 2016 run: Greg Strimple, a Republican pollster who will serve as a senior adviser to RickPAC.
Perry rolled out the Iowa recruits a day before he heads to the state for a town hall meeting at Morningside College in Sioux City. The hires were first reported in local media, including the Des Moines Register and Iowa Republican blog.

Walker has gone to Texas seeking help.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has hired Austin-based fundraiser Susan Lilly for his likely presidential campaign, according to two Republican sources.

Lilly, who got her start as a staffer for Texas Railroad Commissioner Barry Williamson, is a player in both Texas and national Republican politics. In 1997, she started Lilly & Company, the chief fundraiser for several high-profile officeholders, including House Speaker Joe Straus, Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice Nathan Hecht and Justices Phil Johnson and Jeff Boyd

She also counts U.S. Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana, U.S. House Speaker John Boehner and 11 members of the Texas U.S. House delegation as clients, according to her company website.  

She is not the first Texan to join Walker's team. Rick Wiley, an Austin-based former Republican National Committee political director, was one of Walker's first hires.

Is Ted Cruz misunderestimated?  Some who won't let their names be used say yes.

A prominent Republican consultant who isn't working for any of the 2016 presidential candidates and who has been right more times than I can count said something that shocked me when we had lunch recently. He said that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had roughly the same odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee as former Florida governor Jeb Bush.

[...]

The combination of (Cruz's) running room as the race's one true tea-party candidate, his debating and oratorical skills and his willingness to always, on every issue, stake out the most conservative position make him a real threat.

Go read it, as much for the laughs (Bobby Jindal is ranked ahead of Huckabee) as for the acorn occasionally found by the blind hog.  Perry's early salvos comparing Cruz to Obama are being launched for a reason; probably that high-dollar pollster is telling him to do it.

We breed these conservative mutants like rabbits down here in Texas.

Update (2/16): GOPLifer also thinks Cruz is being overlooked.  I enjoy Chris Ladd's blog because he is fearless about criticizing the Republican party, but if he's right and Americans are as stupid as Ted Cruz is about net neutrality, then we're all in deep shit.  That contains the proviso that Cruz is not dissembling.

I'll go out on a very thin, early limb, with barely a bud on it, extending the horse race prognostications I posted just a few days ago.

Perry's best possible finish in Iowa will be third, ahead of Cruz but behind Mike Huckabee and Scott Walker.  What to watch for: if Cruz finishes ahead of Jeb Bush.  That's all any talking head will yammer about if it happens. And if I'm wrong and Cruz actually wins Iowa, no matter the margin, he's instantly the golden child.

Bush comes back in NH, but whoever finishes second wins the spin game.  Update: Perry's also putting a lot of effort into the Granite State.

Then you have caucuses in CO (perhaps Perry's best shot to break through with a win, but his main competition is Rand Paul and, by extension, weed) and MN (Walker), and primaries in NY (Bush, followed by Christie) and Utah (Huckabee or Cruz).  Then there are the Nevada caucuses (whomever has established the most momentum from among Bush, Walker, or TeaBagger Twins Cruz/Huckabee, the frontrunners by this time next year).

And then it's on to SC, where Miss Lindsey Graham is the favorite son.  No line here, but the ones who act the freakiest have the best shot -- I'll take Huckabee, Cruz, and Perry.  The Palmetto State is the last stand for the fuzziest of fringe radicals like Carson and Santorum and other wannabees like Jindal and John Bolton and like that.

Hopefully we get lots of those wonderful debates. ;^)

GOP primary schedule still subject to change, as they say, so besides unpredictable developments and a foggy crystal ball, that's my only disclaimer.  I'm usually better at picking Kentucky Derby contenders.

Sunday Funnies

Friday, February 13, 2015

Markos Moulitsas reads Brains and Eggs

Him, today:

There is no sense in continuing to push for something (Warren for president) that simply won't happen. It's setting up people for failure, disappointment and disillusionment. But yes, a contested primary would be good. So if the draft people are serious, why not find a candidate that will make that statement run? Sen. Bernie Sanders appears ready and willing. Why not him?

Me, three days ago.

If the dumb asses that keep trying to draft Warren would give that up and throw their allegiance to Sanders, then the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party (sans Howard Dean, who has already endorsed Hillary) might have somebody and something they could all get behind. 

Thanks, Kos.  Leave a comment next time you check in.  Oh, and it's okay if you want to support the only progressive woman who has declared she's running for president, even if you can't be out about it because she's not a Democrat.

And if you want to know why, at this point, I would support Jill Stein over Bernie Sanders -- who has simply dithered for too long now -- then here you go.

The permanent Republican majority in Texas

Ten years after Tom DeLay proclaimed his vision, it is fulfilled.  If you haven't read Dave Carney's big brag in Politico, better do so.

Turning the Democrat dream of a blue Texas into the nightmare of a massive loss happened because we ran a campaign that used every tool and strategy a modern campaign has at its disposal, and did so in the most efficient and effective way possible.

Too often campaigns try to fight the last winning war. For Texas Democrats that meant trying to remake their campaign in the shape of Barack Obama’s successful 2012 re-election. And we saw the results.

[...]

With that in mind there are certain principles on which successful campaigns like (Greg Abbott's) can build. We were guided by three basic principles that every Republican running for President needs to apply to their campaign: (1) talk to one audience; (2) measure outputs, not inputs; and (3) test and retest.

I'll let you geek out on the rest.  The point I wish to make is that for all of these analytics, Abbott's colostomy bag could have burst onstage during one of the debates with Wendy Davis and he still would have won.  Carney may think he's that good, and his advisory fees are probably the highest in the nation right now despite being the one whose head went on the chopping block after Rick Perry's 2012 clusterfuck.  But it's also accurate to say that Abbott, et.al. wouldn't have won so convincingly without Carney's software, algorithm, and database schemes.  Abbott -- and the rest of the downballot TXGOP ticket, as well as across the nation -- would not have crushed the Democrats in such humiliating fashion were it not for the successful execution of metrics like these.

Of course, the most severe efforts to suppress minority and working class voters helped tremendously.  Defense wins championships, as they say, and there is nothing approaching the work of King Street Patriots/True the Vote on the left.  The historical slump in Democratic turnout in midterm election years is also part of what Carney claims credit for.  But remember as you read Carney's goals in the link -- 'identify 250 Abbott supporters every week' -- while Wendy Davis' team was bragging about the number of phone calls they made, numbers of door knocked.  Not how many people they actually talked to or persuaded.  Because, sadly, they weren't and didn't.

Here is a personal anecdote I wish to share in regard to database analytics.

In 2004 I made a bet with a Republican I knew online only, never met (and since deceased) that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for re-election.  Our bet was $50, payable to the winning party's national committee by the loser.  Shortly after the election I paid off.

In making that payment to the RNC, I used my own credit card but listed the contribution in the name of "Saul Relative", and the credit card I used was at least ten cards ago, having also changed banks twice and addresses three times in the decade since.  For years after that, I got e-mail and postal letters addressed "Dear Saul:", etc.  My favorite was one that began "Frankly, we're puzzled..."  I wrote on their letter with a black marker: "Stop calling me Frankly.  My name is Saul".  And returned it to them postage paid.

Over time the letters and e-mails diminished to a trickle and then down to nothing; consequently I had not thought about this circumstance for quite some time.

On November 20, 2014, I got Dave Wilson's appeal on his anti- HERO mailer (I posted on FB about it, with pictures).  Though it was addressed to "The Dorrell Household", and my wife did serve briefly as a GOP precinct chair during the 2000 election, her voting history since that time is the same as mine (DDD for over a decade).  So I thought it both odd and amusingly wasteful that Wilson was casting such a wide net looking for supporters.

About a month after that (Dec 29th), I received a nice letter from Reince Priebus, addressed to me and enclosed with my 2015 RNC membership card and a gracious appeal for continued financial support.  Within the body of the letter there was this phrase:

"That's why I'm concerned that we have not heard from you since 11/16/04. I know how generously you have helped our Party in the past.  We need you on our team if we are going to win in 2015, 2016, and beyond."

Read Dave Carney's article again, and think about Tom DeLay's mission a decade ago regarding a permanent Republican majority.  Scott Braddock has neatly brought it up to the present day for us.  Then take a look again at Jeremy Bird, Battleground Texas, the hits their reputation has taken in the wake of November 2014, and the extensive, assorted, mostly backchannel conversations within the various metropolitan county party's players as they coordinated with BGTX (a term I use loosely here) to turn the tide -- or stem the tide, as was the case in Travis and Dallas County.  You know who you are and what's been said.

If you really want to understand why I have given up hope for Democrats in Texas in my lifetime, I think you have all the datapoints you need.  If you are the kind of person who remains committed to turning Texas blue during your lifetime, you have all of the blessings and strength of conviction that I could wish to give another person.

I feel compelled to spend my fruitful hours, days, months, years, whatever is left in another endeavor.  Long after Dave Carney dies and goes to Hell, the future of Texas is all but chiseled into the pink granite walls of the state Capitol.  I think this understanding is why you see LVDP quitting the Senate and running for mayor, along with state legislators like Mike Villarreal and Sly Turner doing the same.  They see the future as clearly as anyone, and it reveals a few Democrats in cities and a couple of blue counties and a handful of statehouse and Senate districts that are gerrymandered minority blue in perpetuity.  And that's pretty much it.

Unless a meteor or a frackquake or a measles contagion takes out millions of Republicans in rural, exurban, and suburban Texas, the TDP will simply not have much influence at all regarding state affairs for at least another generation.  That means good young Democrats like this fellow and others in their 20's and 30's are going to wake up one fine morning on their 50th, or 55th or 60th birthday, with children their own ages now, never having witnessed a Democrat elected to a statewide office.

And no quantity of ten-grand-a-month consultants, advisers, pollsters, and strategists with terabytes of demographic data and direct and e-mail lists and six-inch thick Rolodexes is going to make one iota of difference.  Those people have never been in the game to win it anyway; their victory was getting hired and paid.  They either take both sides or avoid taking a public one at all politically: they're just mercenaries.  (Note the names and bios listed under Billl King and Stephen Costello for the most recent example of how these prostitutes trade jerseys.)  This is one more reason why fewer and fewer people have enough confidence in a system that is so broken, so dysfunctional that most of them can't be bothered to participate in it.

Maybe something will reset the chessboard and the Dems can rebound, but I can't see over the horizon.  I'd rather bet on a old-fashioned torches and pitchforks revolution, especially since the conservatives already have such a large head start on guns and ammo, but that's just me.  Noah's only a little less pessimistic than I am.

I'd like to be wrong about all this.  Hell, I'd just like to be wrong about some of it.  Short of self-immolation, the Republicans are large and in charge for as far as the eye can see and the mind can comprehend.  Like it, lump it, it is what it is.  And will continue to be.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Federal judge blocks disclosure of FBI's assassination plot against Occupy Houston

Any doubts about the police state we live in should be cast aside now.

Details of a plot to kill Occupy Houston leaders won't be released after a federal court upheld the FBI's claim that the documents are legally exempted from the Freedom of Information Act.

The FBI argued information was withheld, including 12 of 17 relevant pages, to protect the identity of confidential sources who were "members of organized violent groups," according to Courthouse News Service.

A heavily-redacted FBI document first revealed a Houston plot "to gather intelligence against the leaders of the protest groups and obtain photographs, then kill the leadership via suppressed sniper rifles."

However the plotter's identity is redacted.

This isn't an equal opportunity tactic by the FBI -- as far as the courts have allowed us to know.  There have been no reported assassination plots against the leaders of Open Carry Texas, or Open Carry Tarrant County, or the ultra-conservative freaks who surrounded Cliven Bundy and actually pointed their rifles at federal agents.  There has been no arrest of the woman who forcibly interrupted the Muslim day at the Capitol, but there have been federal agents making inquiries of Keystone XL and fracking protestors.  There have been examples of law enforcement and gas industry representatives exchanging "intelligence" about these activists.

So it is revealed -- even as it is concealed -- that the peaceful protestors associated with Occupy Wall Street and its affiliate, Occupy Houston, are the ones who most terrify law enforcement and, by extension, those by whom they are employed and deployed to "serve and protect".  The people whose only weapons are a sign, a chant, perhaps a bullhorn, and the might of right on their side are the enemies, not the ones with guns threatening state lawmakers, or killing Muslim honor students, or the ones with badges shooting people because they are black, or poor or mentally ill or disabled.

They make federal judges quake in fear, federal agents concoct plots to assassinate them, their membership and communications are infiltrated in low- and high-tech ways, all because the power of social justice is considered a terrorist threat.  Those who feel the most threatened by a change in the social order gift them with military grade weapons and the legal authority to kill anyone they desire without the slightest accountability, all to ensure the authority of our overlords.  That would be the unelected overlords, those who make sure their pawns, lackeys, and stooges are elected.

This is the state of our union today.  It is not hyperbole.

It is increasingly doubtful that voting is going to change much of anything in this regard, and the fact that fewer and fewer people are voting suggests they are aware of the charade.  I'm still looking for some peaceful solutions to this state we have gotten to, but those options are narrowing significantly.

Something has got to give, and as Frederick Douglass said over 150 years ago...

This struggle may be a moral one, or it may be a physical one, and it may be both moral and physical, but it must be a struggle. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

2016 Democratic tapas

The Republicans are over here.

-- Hillary Clinton spoke last year (actually about 70 days ago) to the League of Conservation Voters and exercised her considerable temerity to praise fracking.  She also said nothing about the Keystone XL pipeline.

At a speech to the League of Conservation Voters in midtown Manhattan (in December 2014), before hundreds of deep-pocketed donors, Hillary Clinton praised the environmental legacy of Teddy Roosevelt, touted the prospect of new green technologies, and had warm words for Barack Obama’s aggressive efforts to combat climate change.

Absent from the former Secretary of State’s speech? Any sense of where she stood on the controversial Keystone pipeline project, or what she would do differently as president to steer the nation towards a more sustainable future.

But that didn’t mean that Clinton wasn’t clear about where she came down on environmental matters—she praised both her husband’s record of cleaning up air and water standards, and the Obama administrations recent efforts to strike a climate deal with China and to toughen pollution standards.

[...]

(Hillary) alluded to the need to wean the nation off of fossil fuels, but noted that, “the political challenges are also unforgiving. There is no getting around the fact that the kind of ambitious response required to effectively combat climate change is going to a be a tough sell at home and around the world at a time when so many countries around the world, including our own, are grappling with slow growth and stretch budgets.”

Clinton was vague about the kind of response needed to address climate change, coming down neither in favor of the traditional Democratic carbon tax or the Republican (pre-Obama, at least) cap and trade plan.
Instead, Clinton, much as her husband has done, pushed for market-based solutions to social problems, arguing that green technologies would enable economic growth and would slow the effects of climate change. She called for “next generation” power plants, smarter grids and greener buildings, describing a “false choice between growing our economy and protecting our environment.”

This is just ridiculous and frankly embarrassing.  It's 800-pound gorilla territory.  Without a semblance of a primary challenge, she's going to keep taking everybody for granted.  Everybody, at least, except Kanye Kardashian.


But her two main competitors -- sorry, Uncle Joe; you may be polling second but you're still in fourth place -- are unpropitious for varying reasons.

-- The effort to draft Elizabeth Warren into the presidential race got a little more desperate.

In a major boost for the liberals hoping to draft Sen. Elizabeth Warren into the 2016 presidential race, New York’s Working Families Party voted Sunday evening to join the effort to push Warren to run against likely candidate Hillary Clinton.

“Senator Warren is the nation’s most powerful voice for working families fighting against a set of rules written by and for big banks. That’s the debate we want to see, and that’s why we’re urging Senator Warren to run for President,” said New York Working Families Party Director Bill Lipton.

The party, which is based in Clinton’s home state of New York, and has been aligned with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, will join MoveOn and Democracy for America. Together, they are running a $1.25 million campaign to draft Warren. There’s also a Ready for Warren super PAC.

“This is a big deal,” said Anna Galland, executive director of MoveOn.org Civic Action. “The Working Families Party played a pivotal role in building the progressive wave in New York City that swept Bill de Blasio into office, and has tremendous electoral clout.”

Nope, not that big a deal.  She's still a pretty firm "no, I'm not running", and you people are starting to look like the kid who can't buy a date to the prom.  Booman asks the right question: if you're Joan Walsh -- a progressive Democrat in search of an alternative to Hillary, but see only Warren on the horizon... what exactly are you going to do when will you finally realize 'no' is the only answer you're going to get?

Vote for the fracker?  Vote for Keystone XL?  Might cease calling yourself a progressive then.

-- Here's the one-hundredth article on Bernie Sanders I have read in the past three months, all of which seem to have been written by the same person.  He's still thinking about running if there's a groundswell of support for him, and only if he can win.  The polls all say no chance, Bernie.

Sanders' own political pragmatism in abandonment of progressivism extends to his support of an F-35 base in Vermont, which has drawn withering condemnation from Socratic Gadfly.

If the dumb asses that keep trying to draft Warren would give that up and throw their allegiance to Sanders, then the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party (sans Howard Dean, who has already endorsed Hillary) might have somebody and something they could all get behind.  But this isn't about principle; it's about political expediency in a Citizens United era.  And Bernie is also, you know, old and not female, so there's that.  I had just let myself think that liberal Democrats were smarter than they are demonstrating with these Quixotic actions.  Guess I should let go of that.  In fact I think I'll go delete all of those "Progressive Breakfast" e-mails I get every goddamned morning.

There's an obvious choice for all of these people, but a) they can't take the partisan blinders off, and b) there will be no jobs for $10,000-a-month consultants.  Consequently the media won't be talking about the only progressive option.

It's still Clinton v. Bush in November of 2016, in case you were wondering.  You can either settle for that, or do whatever you can now to change it.

2016 Republican tapas

-- Rick Perry sniped at Ted Cruz over the weekend, comparing him to Obama.  Cruz, to his credit, didn't take the bait.

Asked about his potential 2016 rival earlier this week, Perry responded, “I think [voters] are going to make a rather radical shift, away from a young, untested United States senator whose policies have really failed.”

“Listen, I like Rick Perry,” Cruz said on CNN’s State of the Union. “People occasionally throw rocks in politics. That’s his choice. I’m going say I think he did a good and effective job as governor of our state.”

Cruz also made another consultant hire, an old Gingrich hand.

Rick Tyler, Gingrich’s longtime spokesman who served as a top strategist to a super PAC that supported Gingrich’s 2012 presidential campaign, will join Cruz’s campaign-in-waiting to serve as a senior communications adviser.

The best news here is that Newt's not running again.  Cruz is also still testing out Occupy themes.  What an amazing triangulator this guy is.

-- Look up "Bush, Jeb" in the dictionary, there's a picture of the 2012 GOP nominee.

Mitt Romney opposed the government's rescue of U.S. automakers. So did Jeb Bush.

Both worked in finance and backed the Wall Street bailout. Both are advocates of tax cuts that Democrats contend only benefit the wealthy and big business.

[...]

"We don't need to try to show that Jeb is like Romney. He pretty much is Romney," said Eddie Vale, vice president of American Bridge 21st Century, a liberal group set up to conduct opposition research on Republicans. "When it comes to any ideas or policies, he's the same as Romney."

If they spend any time thinking about it -- especially if they spend much time thinking about the money they spent four years ago and are about to spend in the next couple -- that comparison might make a lot of one-percenters sad.  It's a good thing they have more money than sense, isn't it?

Obama's team successfully used that bailout as a wedge against Romney in Michigan and Ohio, repeatedly referring to a 2008 Romney op-ed with the headline, "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt." Although Romney did not write the headline and advocated a managed bankruptcy for the industry, it created the impression that he was willing to forgo thousands of U.S. auto jobs.

Bush's early approach to his potential campaign signals a desire to avoid such pitfalls, as well as Romney's most notable gaffe — his behind-closed-door dismissal of the "47 percent" of Americans who, he said, don't pay income taxes.

Lisa Wagner, Romney's 2012 Midwest fundraising director, said that once voters meet Bush, "they see his head and his heart are connected" and they are "very, very taken" with his "sincerity."

"His head and his heart are connected".  Can you believe people get paid tens of thousands of dollars to spout horseshit like that?

Vox claims polls that show Bush leading the field actually demonstrate Bush's weaknesses.  I suppose we'll just have to wait and see.

--  There's no shame in Scott Walker's game, though.  If you wondered why he's the early darling, look no further than here.

Gov. Scott Walker's election history isn’t like anyone else’s in the emerging field of Republican presidential candidates. If he runs, it will be his 14th campaign in 25 years, and his eighth campaign in 13 years.

He is the proverbial perennial candidate, though unlike many who pick up that label, he almost always wins.
The 47-year-old Republican began running at an earlier age and has run more often and won more elections than any of his potential presidential rivals. He has campaigned for office in every even-numbered year since 1994.

Walker’s total of 13 races is padded by his time in the state Assembly, where lawmakers run every two years. And it’s boosted by one election (the 2012 recall) that was forced by his opponents.

Republicans also think he's got some kind of mojo because he wins in 'blue state' Wisconsin.  This is his primary appeal, his top selling point.  It's what he means when he says "I wouldn't bet against me".  Despite his glaring flaws, you can bet easy money that he and Huckabee (whose entire campaign continues to be exclusively focused on hating gays) will be the top contenders for the Iowa prize.  Bush will re-surge in New Hampshire.  And then it's on to South Carolina, where Lindsey Graham is the favorite son.  We're in for another grueling Republican primary season next year, and hopefully lots of those wonderful debates.

-- Rand Paul is extending last week (bad, very bad) into this one.

(Last) August, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and Iowa Republican state Rep. Bobby Kaufmann drove for an hour together between political events in Davenport and Iowa City, jawing about property rights and eminent domain.

In October, Paul headlined a Kaufmann campaign fundraiser, where nearly 400 attendees chowed on barbecued pork, beans and cheesy potatoes in Kaufmann’s eastern Iowa hometown of Wilton, population 2,800.

And that same month, Paul’s political action committee sent Kaufmann’s campaign a $1,000 check.
Paul’s courting of a 29-year-old chairman of the Iowa House’s government oversight committee who has no national stature is hardly accidental: Should the Kentucky Republican run for president, he’ll desperately need support from local leaders like Kaufmann.

Kaufman, however, hasn’t committed to Paul, who was again visiting Iowa last weekend, or any other potential candidate.

“I’m not endorsing anyone yet,” Kaufmann told the Center for Public Integrity.

You can read more at CPI about how the PAC money in early primary states is corrosive to everything decent about our politics.  Paul still has his daddy/vaccine issues, remains busy pissing off the media, and isn't winning any friends among the investor class.  Egberto Willies thinks he's got to be a front-runner at some point, but I just don't see it.

The funniest thing I read this week (so far) was that the sole purpose for Peter King and John Bolton's so-called presidential campaigns was to short-circuit Rand Paul's.  These guys -- including Miss Lindsey -- are all about being a hawk to Paul's dovish, non-interventionist, neo-isolationist foreign policy.

Chris Christie simply isn't worth mentioning any longer.  Bobby Jindal, laughably, is trying to run as a white guy.  This is going to end quickly and badly for both.  There's just no scenario where either one of them is competitive in the early going.

Enough of these conservatives.  Let's look at the Democrats in the next post.