Sunday, January 18, 2015
Saturday, January 17, 2015
SCOTUS will rule on marriage equality this year
But as Hair Balls points out: will Texans just have to cool their jets until then?
I'm skeptimistic. I think much of that is a pile of BS waiting for Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick and the worst conservatives in the state legislature to roll around in, smear on their faces and all over each other, and generally continue to further embarrass the state of Texas in the eyes of the nation.
So I'll prognosticate a worst-case scenario and hope that any better outcome will happen.
To begin, my anonymous legal eagle has (fairly safely) predicted a 2-1 Fifth Circuit decision, with Higginbotham and Graves in the majority and Jerry Smith writing some harshly-worded minority rebuke. My source similarly thought that ruling wouldn't come down for several months. With this Supreme Court development, I would be surprised if the appeals panel waited until the summer; I'll fashion that they now move up their deadline. As Michael Barajas of Hair Balls intimates, this opens the door to AG Paxton busting his move, which the full Fifth takes and then rushes to some conclusion ahead of the Supremes, probably an unfavorable one for marriage equality. If the Supreme Court favors the plaintiffs and legalizes gay marriage -- not a silly guess at all -- then you've got an opening for Abbott to call the Lege into special session, with a charge to outlaw it in Texas on some convoluted application of the theory of nullification.
And yet another years-long court battle.
Update: More than a couple of lawyer-types have indicated that the Fifth Circuit is is likely not to issue a decision en banc before the SCOTUS rules (if that happens in June) due to the historical snail's pace at which these things move through the courts. I welcome additional input that improves the nightmare described above.
If you really want to be disheartened, then read this speculative legal analysis behind why the Supremes took on these cases: because the reworked questions and their narrow framing might enable them -- most specifically, Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy-- to vote to criminalize gay marriage. Update: And take this as encouragement that Kennedy is the fifth vote to legalize. And yes, this as well.
Paranoia aside and if the high court rules in favor of marriage equality, I cannot see the governor, the attorney general, Dan Patrick and the Lege just lying down and 'getting it crammed down their throats'... as conservatives enjoy saying so much.
All this while HERO's jury trial comes to a head. It's going to a tempestuous year for the 'mophobes. That much is the only certainty. Via Charles, this Buzzfeed post is best for all of the SCOTUS details.
Last week, when the federal Fifth Circuit appeals court heard oral arguments regarding gay marriage bans in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, things looked promising for advocates of marriage equality. [...]
Both (plaintiffs' attorney Neel) Lane and the State of Texas had already asked the Fifth Circuit to rule, regardless of whether or not the Supreme Court decided to hear a gay-marriage case - "It is the only thing we agree with the state on," Lane says. If the Fifth Circuit does come down with a ruling in favor of gay marriage, it's unclear whether Texas' new attorney general, Ken Paxton, would try to further delay things by appealing the case to the Fifth Circuit's full 15-judge panel.
Nevertheless, Lane believes that the Fifth Circuit judges' questions last Friday indicate their willingness to lift the current stay that's kept Texas' gay-marriage ban in place. If the Fifth decides not to punt, there's the very real possibility that Texas could see gay marriages before the Supreme Court takes up the issue.
"The question is whether the Fifth Circuit will rule on the three cases before it, knowing that the Supreme Court is likely to give a definitive answer by June," Lane told us. "I hope the Fifth Circuit will rule rather than wait, because my clients have waited long enough for their rights to be recognized."
I'm skeptimistic. I think much of that is a pile of BS waiting for Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick and the worst conservatives in the state legislature to roll around in, smear on their faces and all over each other, and generally continue to further embarrass the state of Texas in the eyes of the nation.
So I'll prognosticate a worst-case scenario and hope that any better outcome will happen.
To begin, my anonymous legal eagle has (fairly safely) predicted a 2-1 Fifth Circuit decision, with Higginbotham and Graves in the majority and Jerry Smith writing some harshly-worded minority rebuke. My source similarly thought that ruling wouldn't come down for several months. With this Supreme Court development, I would be surprised if the appeals panel waited until the summer; I'll fashion that they now move up their deadline. As Michael Barajas of Hair Balls intimates, this opens the door to AG Paxton busting his move, which the full Fifth takes and then rushes to some conclusion ahead of the Supremes, probably an unfavorable one for marriage equality. If the Supreme Court favors the plaintiffs and legalizes gay marriage -- not a silly guess at all -- then you've got an opening for Abbott to call the Lege into special session, with a charge to outlaw it in Texas on some convoluted application of the theory of nullification.
And yet another years-long court battle.
Update: More than a couple of lawyer-types have indicated that the Fifth Circuit is is likely not to issue a decision en banc before the SCOTUS rules (if that happens in June) due to the historical snail's pace at which these things move through the courts. I welcome additional input that improves the nightmare described above.
If you really want to be disheartened, then read this speculative legal analysis behind why the Supremes took on these cases: because the reworked questions and their narrow framing might enable them -- most specifically, Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy-- to vote to criminalize gay marriage. Update: And take this as encouragement that Kennedy is the fifth vote to legalize. And yes, this as well.
The past 15 weeks have shown, time and time again, that a majority of the Supreme Court is not only ready for, but has been preparing the country for, a decision enforcing nationwide protection of same-sex couples’ right to marry.
Paranoia aside and if the high court rules in favor of marriage equality, I cannot see the governor, the attorney general, Dan Patrick and the Lege just lying down and 'getting it crammed down their throats'... as conservatives enjoy saying so much.
All this while HERO's jury trial comes to a head. It's going to a tempestuous year for the 'mophobes. That much is the only certainty. Via Charles, this Buzzfeed post is best for all of the SCOTUS details.
Friday, January 16, 2015
Just vote progressive in 2016 (and 2015)
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, blahblahblah.
Will she or won't she? Only her hairdresser knows for sure, I suppose. I remain of the opinion that these relentless entreaties to get her to jump in, mostly being made by MoveOn.org but also others, are just sad to watch.
As for Bernie, he's narrowed his own options down to 'not running'. And don't worry, Democrats; the Greens still have essentially nobody. The Libertarians might be set for some fun, though.
But it's really up to the Republicans to provide the next two years of entertainment, and thankfully they aren't disappointing us. That will continue to be a target-rich environment for a snarky blogger, but I'll keep efforting to limit my contributions to the 140-characters-or less-variety, occasionally seen in the column to your right.
I'm going to try to keep the focus on H-Town politics for the year, as there is so much news breaking that some of it will go national. The only thing you need to remember to do -- besides vote, that is -- is to vote for the most liberal candidates and issues on your ballot this year (and next, please). Toss out the labels. Which is what they want you to do anyway, seeing as how it's supposed to be non-partisan and all.
We don''t need annnny more conservatives down at City Hall. That goes for conservative, pro-business, mushy-middle moderate Democrats as well. With the tiny number of Houstonians historically participating in city elections, with the well-motivated right-wing freaks in the 'burbs excluded by geography but not by activism, we need all progressives on deck. Houston cannot be allowed to devolve by apathy into Lubbock.
Will she or won't she? Only her hairdresser knows for sure, I suppose. I remain of the opinion that these relentless entreaties to get her to jump in, mostly being made by MoveOn.org but also others, are just sad to watch.
As for Bernie, he's narrowed his own options down to 'not running'. And don't worry, Democrats; the Greens still have essentially nobody. The Libertarians might be set for some fun, though.
But it's really up to the Republicans to provide the next two years of entertainment, and thankfully they aren't disappointing us. That will continue to be a target-rich environment for a snarky blogger, but I'll keep efforting to limit my contributions to the 140-characters-or less-variety, occasionally seen in the column to your right.
I'm going to try to keep the focus on H-Town politics for the year, as there is so much news breaking that some of it will go national. The only thing you need to remember to do -- besides vote, that is -- is to vote for the most liberal candidates and issues on your ballot this year (and next, please). Toss out the labels. Which is what they want you to do anyway, seeing as how it's supposed to be non-partisan and all.
We don''t need annnny more conservatives down at City Hall. That goes for conservative, pro-business, mushy-middle moderate Democrats as well. With the tiny number of Houstonians historically participating in city elections, with the well-motivated right-wing freaks in the 'burbs excluded by geography but not by activism, we need all progressives on deck. Houston cannot be allowed to devolve by apathy into Lubbock.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Gun goons invade Capitol, threaten state rep in his office
An already-well-documented atrocity by many others, here's the video and the Houston Press account.
Just imagine the scene if some black or brown people had done something like this. The Lege has responded, moving quickly toward some safe-guarding of their members, which will hopefully be in place before the next brazen stunt that threatens to spin out of control into violence.
These Open Carry Tarrant County thugs (mugshots of two of the perps at this link) are at odds with the Open Carry Texas contingent in tactics but not in goal.
That helps, but not if Rep. Stickland keeps throwing gas on the fire, as he did right before this standoff occurred.
Shannon Watts of Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America had the best analysis.
The bill is going to pass, gun nuts. Take your toys -- the ones that compensate for your shortcomings, inadequacy, and self-confidence -- and go home so that cooler (big) heads can calm this situation down enough for you to get what you want. Threats and intimidation simply aren't good PR moves for an inexorable gun activist movement.
We'd like to avoid any Newtowns, Auroras, and/or Charlie Hebdos from you. Thanks in advance.
Update: Texas Leftist has this.
A video posted by Kory Watkins, a member of Open Carry Tarrant County, shows gun activists confronting State Rep. Poncho Nevarez, a Democrat from Eagle Pass, in his capitol office Tuesday. The crew of gun-rights supporters was apparently shopping a bill filed by GOP Rep. Jonathan Stickland, which, if passed, would allow Texans to openly carry handguns without even obtaining a license.
This type of deliberately confrontational behavior -- over guns, on the first day of the legislative session -- is even more sobering when you consider it's actually easier to get into the State Capitol with a concealed carry license than without one (no line, no metal detector, no routine security check for concealed carriers).
Just imagine the scene if some black or brown people had done something like this. The Lege has responded, moving quickly toward some safe-guarding of their members, which will hopefully be in place before the next brazen stunt that threatens to spin out of control into violence.
These Open Carry Tarrant County thugs (mugshots of two of the perps at this link) are at odds with the Open Carry Texas contingent in tactics but not in goal.
According to the Dallas Morning News, Open Carry Texas leader CJ Grisham condemned Open Carry Tarrant County on Facebook and Twitter. “I am so pissed at the actions of people today inside the Capitol. Totally counterproductive and unprofessional."
“I mean, it’s the first day of the Legislature, we are this close to getting open carry passed, and now these guys want to come and manufacture a firearm on the steps of the Capitol? I just don’t get it.”
That helps, but not if Rep. Stickland keeps throwing gas on the fire, as he did right before this standoff occurred.
"With your help, we are going to storm this Capitol and quit getting on our knees and asking for the Second Amendment back," Stickland told the armed crowd gathered Tuesday. "We are going to take it back."
Shannon Watts of Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America had the best analysis.
“This divide within the open carry groups right now in Texas seems like an easy way for some of these bills to seem more ‘reasonable’, said Watts. “Moms are here to make sure these attempts do not go unchecked, we remember the threats and intimidation, and we will not sit idle and let this sort of behavior become acceptable.”
Earlier this week members of the Texas chapter of (MDAfGSiA) visited 175 offices in the state legislature with cookies and strollers in tow to introduce themselves and discuss common-sense gun legislation and the chapter’s opposition to expanding open carry in Texas.
The bill is going to pass, gun nuts. Take your toys -- the ones that compensate for your shortcomings, inadequacy, and self-confidence -- and go home so that cooler (big) heads can calm this situation down enough for you to get what you want. Threats and intimidation simply aren't good PR moves for an inexorable gun activist movement.
We'd like to avoid any Newtowns, Auroras, and/or Charlie Hebdos from you. Thanks in advance.
Update: Texas Leftist has this.
As this legislature gets rolling, let’s hope that they remember one thing about guns. If you pass an Open Carry law for Texas, you pass it for everyone. All the panic buttons in the world won’t change that. It’s time for Texans to unite for common-sense policies, and say no to a Big Government legislature that would force all of us to be less safe.
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