Monday, November 04, 2013

Texas Tribune poll has Abbott leading Davis by 5 percentage points

And twenty percent still undecided.

Attorney General Greg Abbott, the leading candidate for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, holds a single-digit lead over the likely Democratic nominee, state Sen. Wendy Davis of Fort Worth, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

[...]

“What you’ve got is a race in which, for the first time in a long time, the Democrat is as well-known as the Republican at the outset of the race,” said poll co-director Daron Shaw, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

I have thrown many rocks at the TexTrib's polling since its inception, but I have to say that this feels about right.  It may, however, just be one of those reinforcing-one's-existing-beliefs kind of data points.

“These numbers are not evidence that the underlying fundamentals are changing in Texas,” said Jim Henson, who co-directs the poll and heads the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin. “We have not seen a big change in party identification, and we don’t see any large-scale shifts in the underlying attitudes that are forming.”

That also feels right.

So is Abbott's woeful 40% figure just another a polling error?  Could it be an oversampling of a Davis demographic... or could it be Abbott fatigue?  If Republicans generically aren't losing support, then why isn't Abbott pulling something in the traditional 55-40 range?  Or at least 50%?  I don't think "too early" explains his sagging result.

This should be enough to get Democrats enthusiastic (not to mention getting your e-mail inbox filled with Davis financial solicitations).  There's more interesting poll results at the Trib's link, including "Don't Know" leading David Dewhurst in the GOP LG primary by 46-26 with Dan Patrick at just 13%.

Update: Harvey Kronberg thinks there's bigger news than Wendy Davis barely outside the margin of error.

The stunner in today’s Texas Tribune poll was not that Wendy Davis is within shouting distance of Greg Abbott in a general election, but that with all his money and name ID among Republican primary voters, he just hits 50%. One wobble and he could be in an unpredictable and volatile runoff where anything could happen.

Update II (11/5): So much for this being a close race early.  PPP, a polling outfit with a much better track record, released its most recent survey of Texans at lunchtime on Election Day and it has Abbott up 15, at 50-35.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance falls back once a year, but is always moving forward as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff gives an update on the 2014 Democratic lineup so far.

Horwitz & Sophia at Texpatriate published a featured article that examines Houston mayoral candidate Ben Hall's time as city attorney as well as his messy transition back into the private sector.

As the see-saw court battle over the Texas abortion restrictions law moved through the courts, both sides could claim victory in the past week. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs knows that -- besides having the SCOTUS rule in their favor sometime in 2015 -- the only way to guarantee women's reproductive freedom is for Democrats to turn out the 2014 vote.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme doesn't know whether to laugh or cry at the prospect of la la fantasy man David Barton running against the rapist enabler John Cornyn.

Eye On Williamson, still blogging at their temporary home, has Greg Abbott thinking that the Lege will cede him more power. He's either ignorant or naive about how the Texas Legislature actually works, in Follow-up on Greg Abbott's "economic" plan.

Neil at All People Have Value said that Houston mayoral candidate Ben Hall is a lousy guy who does not support the freedom of all people. All People Have Value is part of NeilAquino.com.

=========================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Equality Texas guest poster Melanie Pang documents why she supports Wendy Davis.

PTA Mom Kim Burkett is equally effusive about Sen. Davis.

Better Texas Blog sets the record straight about pre- and post-ACA rates.

The Lunch Tray explored the ethics and dilemmas of Halloween candy.

Texas Watch calls on the Texas Department of Insurance to adopt some much-needed reforms for auto insurance.

TFN Insider has some good news about science textbooks in Texas, but warns that politics remains an obstacle.

BOR laments the millions of Texans that will be hurt by the cut to food stamps.

Blog con Queso celebrates Dia de Lost Muertos, and no, that's not a typo.

Sunday, November 03, 2013

Sunday Daylight Saving Funnies

Posts with words -- opinions, predictions, you know, the usual stuff -- to resume eventually.  In the meantime I shouldn't have to remind you that this is Fall Back Sunday, and that you don't have to turn your clocks backward an hour, because we all have those magic 21st-century timepieces that do so automatically.  Right?


Enlarge (by clicking upon) and enjoy.