Houston Election Eve, poll results, and more

Tuesday Election Day update:

-- Ten developments to observe in today's elections.

-- A list of Election Night celebrations. Also, Harris County Green candidates Amy Price and Don Cook will watch the returns with supporters and friends at Bar Boheme, 307 Fairview at Taft.

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-- As you likely are aware, HISD trustee Manuel Rodriguez has been seared over his homo-mailer by the HGLBT Mafia, the Chronicle, and everybody in-between. But he still may be re-elected unless this late breaking news turns voters who haven't cast a ballot yet against him. We'll know in about 36 hours.

-- The National Hispanic Professional Organization conducted the only public poll of which I am aware of Houston's municipal and educational candidates. A SurveyMonkey poll. There were some surprises -- or not, depending on how much value you place in online polls. Most people who know more (and care more) about polling than I do not place much if any. So there's your *ahem* pillar of salt.

Mayor Annise Parker holds a commanding lead (59.2%) over Deputy Chief of the Fire Department and GOP hopeful Fernando Herrera (31.1%). We had 473 likely voters who answered the question - “If the election were held today, who would be your choice for Mayor of Houston”.

This poll's political party ID distribution was 58.7% Democrats, 16.3% indies, 0.6% Libertarians, 19.9% Republicans, 0.4% Socialists, and 4.1% "other". I believe that breakdown represents an undersampling of the conservative electorate, and may suggest that Mayor Parker's numbers will come in somewhat under 59%.

Could this poll, as flawed as it seems, represent a red flag to the Parker campaign? Is it actually possible she could be forced into a runoff?

We did find the results for the At-Large #2 race interesting with Bo Fraga, son of former City Council Member Felix Fraga, getting 22.4% of the total vote and Jennifer Rene Pool getting 16.9% of the vote. These two candidates were the top vote getters in this race. The number of Hispanics participating in the poll is 12% higher than the historical Hispanic voter turnout in Houston. We therefore believe that the results for this race may be off and we have confidence that this seat is wide open to all candidates in the race.

There's yet another clue something is wrong. Latino turnout is well off even its usual anemic proportion (via e-mail from the Harris County Tejano Democrats):

According to official reports from the Harris County Clerk's office, Latinos have comprised 12% of the total in person absentee and mail in ballots cast. Districts H, I and J are the three lowest turnout districts as far as percentage of the city turnout is concerned with District H turning out 5% of the city total; District I 6% of the city total and District J 4% of the city total.

This poll has Anglos at 41.1%, Asian at 1.8%, African-American ("Black") voters at 24.4%, Latinos ("Hispanic") at 27.8% and the rest at 4.9%.

Note also that the quoted paragraph above indicates different percentages for Fraga and Pool than the graphs displayed at the link. The AL2 candidates by rank are Fraga (23.2%), Pool (16.5%), Thibaut (14.4%), Perez (11.8%), Robinson (9.3%), Shorter (8.9%), Burks (8.1%), Dick (4.1%), Griffin (2.2%), and Goss (1.4%).

Another discrepancy appears in the the numbers of respondents in the press release (473) as compared with the charts and graphs (492). No explanation is given. So there appears to be some error in calculation as well. Maybe it's me looking at something wrong. You check and see and tell me what you find.

At the very least, Republicans are significantly under-sampled and Latinos are vastly over-sampled. On the presumption that surnames matter to Latino voters ... Herrera, Fraga, and Perez -- RepubLatinos all -- may or may not be in good shape.

But this poll is probably useless for predicting much of anything. Texas Tribune, take note.

-- There's a hilarious little spat going on between H-Town conservo-bloggers. Big Jolly called District C candidate Brian Cweren gay and this guy called Big Jolly a liberal. That's almost -- but not quite -- as funny as Me, Evan's response to mayoral candidate Jack O'Connor's calling us out. Don't jack with Evan, Jack.

Here's your progressive voters' guide for Houston's election once again. Remember that the only official poll is tomorrow. Make it count.

The Weekly Election Day Eve Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds you that the right to complain about the results of an election are directly connected to having voted in it. Here is this week's blog roundup.

Off the Kuff has a school finance lawsuit update.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme catches Greg Abbott being a blithering hypocrite.

Shocker! Hold the presses: Herman Cain and Rick Perry each discover that running for President is hard! Letters From Texas weighs in.

BossKitty at TruthHugger is awakened from a 2011 blog sleep. The run-up to the 2012 Presidential Campaign is disgusting already. Nothing is as it seems and candidates are fluent in fairy tales. The distance between the educated voter and the uneducated voter is huge. Guess which group holds the majority ... Campaign Season Op Ed: BossKitty Awakens

There don't appear to be any obvious winners in the wake of Rick Perry's implosion and Herman Cain's Black Walnut meltdown, according to PDiddie at Brains and Eggs. Unless you count Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, that is. And they were winning beforehand.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson posts on the insanity of tax talk in Texas. We can't keep doing the same thing and expecting different results: Texas tax facts.

Irritated by road construction? McBlogger says don't blame TXDOT, blame the contractors.

Neil at Texas Liberal noted the unexpected passing of an old friend with a reminder that if you value someone in life, you should contact them now.

Sunday Punching Back Funnies

Many Texas credit unions had a steady stream of new accounts open on Saturday as "Bank Transfer Day" drew attention online and on the streets across the state. While statistics for Bank Transfer Day are not yet available, credit unions reported a surge in traffic. Statewide, credit unions reported 47,000 Texans had joined, and $326 million was moved by November 2 –- four times the usual growth rate, reports the Texas Credit Union League.

HISD school lunch menu: Homophobia Burger with extra bigotry sauce

We just wouldn't be the City by the Bayou without a big steaming plate of this.

Some Houston residents are calling for the resignation of Manuel Rodriguez from the Houston school board after the incumbent distributed a campaign flyer to his constituents earlier this week that included language critical of gay people.

“His records show he spent years advocating for gay, lesbian, bi-sexual, transgender rights… not kids,” the campaign brochure says about Ramiro Fonseca, Rodriguez’s opponent in Tuesday’s election for the District III seat of Houston school system’s Board of Trustees.

The flyer states Fonseca has received the endorsement of the Houston GLBT Political Caucus, “the South’s oldest civil rights organization dedicated solely to the advancement of gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender rights.” (The underlined words are underlined in the flyer.) [...]

Rodriguez said today that the brochure isn’t anti-gay.

“It’s the truth,” Rodriguez said during a phone interview, adding that he is not anti-gay. “I am not bashing gay people.”

Rodriguez said that the flyer emphasized the endorsement of the Houston GLBT Political Caucus to “indicate who (Fonseca) represents.”

The incumbent said he underlined the words, ‘gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender rights’ “to make sure parents know who’s going to make policy for their children.”

Sidebar first: go look at the flyer. You have to admire the unintended irony of the man who has been at the head of the board for one of the nation's largest school districts writing "Vote NO for my opponent".

The HLGBT Caucus -- which controls Houston elections and has for some time now -- launched itself into frenzied overdrive.

Noel A. Freeman, president of the Houston GLBT Political Caucus called the Rodriguez brochure “trash politics at its worst.” The flyer also describes Fonseca as being 54 with no children and having a male partner.

“A homophobic bigot like this has no business making decisions that affect our children,” Freeman said.

Rodriguez should step down and officials from the Houston Independent School District should investigate him, said Art Pronin, president of the Meyerland Area Democrats Club.

“This is nauseating that a sitting public official would do this. He should be held to a higher standard than that,” said Pronin, who added that during the between 25 and 30 campaigns he’s worked on, he hadn’t seen anything like this.

“It’s inexcusable that a member of the school board would do the same thing that many students to do gay students,” Pronin said. “The flyer is vicious. It specifically makes it sound like it’s perverted to be gay and highlights multiple times that being gay is not ‘normal.’”

Worse, Pronin said, is that the HISD school board recently strengthened its anti-bullying policy.

“Now Rodriguez is doing it,” Pronin said. “What’s it saying to parents who have a gay child? He has to go.”

If Da Caucus decided to join forces with Occupy Wall Street's Houston chapter, I'm convinced that the Chase Tower in downtown Houston would resemble New York's World Trade Center in 2001 on rhetoric alone. (If that analogy offends you then substitute "the walls of Jericho". But back to the point ...)

I just don't understand why some conservative moron has to go there every single time we have an election in this town. Forget Dave Wilson. Forget Gene Locke two years ago. The Right has been playing the Fag Card -- or the Fagbait Card -- at least since Kathy Whitmire was controller.

I'm sure it was going on well before that, too. It was just a little more obvious and out in the open. For that matter it may have even won an election at some point in Houston's history.

It's done nothing but lose elections for the perpetrators of fear and loathing for the past generation, though, ever since "Louie, Don't Shoot!" lost his comeback bid against incumbent mayor Whitmire.

But that never seems to stop them from playing it.

This is the proof that the Freak Right is clinically insane: they keep doing the same thing repeatedly, expecting a different result.

Manuel Rodriguez is just version 1.6. And by his own words: vote No for his opponent, Ramiro Fonseca.

 No más de este mamarracho (I prefer caca de toro personally but my translator is polite).

Update: The Chron posts a retraction.

Earlier this campaign season, we endorsed Manuel Rodriguez Jr. for another term on the board of the Houston Independent School District. We now retract that endorsement in the race for HISD Position III trustee. [...]

With his hateful flier, Rodriguez perpetuates the kind of stereotypes that put our kids in danger. And he implies that all right-thinking people agree with him - an insult to his constituents, and precisely the kind of blithe, old-school homophobia that makes school hallways so treacherous.

Members of the school board are supposed to be role models, not bullies. They're supposed to support civil rights, not fight against them. They're supposed to fight hate speech, not commit it.

It's important to stand up to bullying, intolerant behavior, whether on the playground or at the ballot box.

Who wins with Cain and Perry's implosion?

First of all you must accept the premise that Pizza Man and Governor Goodhair have indeed imploded, joining the ranks of the walking dead on Halloween (aka Dia de los Muertos).

If you do, then IMHO the two men standing to gain the most are 1) Romney and 1a) Obama.

Romney's still not seeing any polling bump, but as Richard Viguerie told Ed Schultz last week, that's because Mittens has been polling around 25% for the last five years. He won't solidify support until his nomination appears more inevitable than it already is, and that may not be until late spring (Viguerie again points out that the GOP primaries are, for the first time in 40 years, apportioning delegates by percentage instead of winner-take-all until April 1).

Regular readers of this blog -- with the exception of Matt and Greg -- would not be likely to give much credence to what goes on at FreeRepublic.com, but the proprietor there has recently banned all Romney supporters from his site.

Free Republic is a pro-life, pro-family, pro-gun, pro-small government, pro-constitution, pro-liberty site. Governor Romney is none of the above. His record is that of an abortionist, gay rights pushing, gun grabbing, global warming advocating, big government, mandate loving, constitution trampling, flip-flopping liberal progressive with no core values. That and the fact that he is the chief architect and advocate for ObamaCare disqualifies him for any consideration whatsoever on Free Republic as a potential nominee for the presidency.

Jim Robinson may not speak for all of them, but he speaks for some sizable contingent of TeaBagging sympathizers who have appear to have no options once Romney is nominated (and he will be).

Herman Cain's Black Walnut is melting down to a mush of goop with a few nuts floating in it. Perry -- well, cuddling a small bottle of syrup like it is a puppy is the equivalent of a Dean Scream. "Not presidential", and twenty-five minutes of that behavior instead of half of one second.

Unlike some of the chattering class as well as a recent poll which suggests a comeback, I don't believe Gingrich can capitalize (he has the same ladies' baggage as Cain, essentially). Certainly not Bachmann or Santorum. Huntsman? Gary Johnson? Not the TP's cup of tea. Ron Paul's numbers are the same as ever; even the Bags think he's batshit crazy. I'm still hoping Dr. No wises up and goes Libertarian.

I wonder if Donald Trump, Tim Pawlenty, or Thaddeus McCotter have regrets about withdrawing. Could there yet be a Sarah Palin Mad Hat tossed into the ring? Again, highly doubtful.

I just don't see where the Loon Caucus may land, except on 'demoralized'. They may get re-energized if/when Romney picks Rubio or some other of their ilk, but that's just McCain-Palin all over again.

What do you think?

Update: Just to add that I think 2012 is going to be a good year -- relatively speaking -- for third-party ultraconservative candidates. Like the Constitution Party, for example, and possibly even this person, whom I have never heard of before today:

Just when you thought the field of candidates for president in 2012 was full, a national radio talk-show host is now in the race, claiming Barack Obama is not even eligible for office because he has presented a forged birth certificate to the nation.

Laurie Roth from Washington state is running not as a Republican, but as a self-described patriot and conservative on the American Independent Party ticket. She says she's already on the ballot in California, and will take steps to make sure her name is listed in the other 49 states.

Disregard MoveOn's ballot (and Peter Brown's endorsement)

Today is your last opportunity to cast an early vote in Houston's municipal elections. You have until 7 p.m this evening to do so, and then you have to wait until Election Day, next Tuesday.

MoveOn has distributed their "Progressive Ballot Guide", and for the most part it is a joke. That's because the ballot has been infiltrated with Republican disruptors. It's just "Operation Chaos" up to its usual tricks. For example ...

-- District A lists a split vote, but click in and you'll see several recommendations for incumbent Brenda Stardig -- Republican, incumbent, possible alcoholic -- as the 'progressive' choice. That would be laughably false.

-- At Large #4's recommendation is Chief Crime Labford -- who happens to be the least progressive choice.

-- Similarly, in a race with three Republicans and one Green candidate, the incumbent Republican-masquerading-as-a-Democrat is the leader.

MoveOn's clickers got it right a time or two, but overall this is a list you should avoid. I have made all of the recommendations you need to cast a progressive ballot this year. You may not agree with all of my picks, but if you use MoveOn's ballot for anything but lining the litter box, you're making a mistake.

And you're too smart for that.

The same goes for anyone who pays attention to anything Mr. Schlumberger says. I'm convinced that if Peter Brown and Bill White plan on running for office again, it won't be as Democrats. You just can't piss down the back of the African-American voting bloc and expect to get away with it.

Neither man is smart enough or devious enough to be playing three-dimensional chess/jiu-jitsu here, either. Conservatives are interpreting this move as a reason for them NOT to vote for Jack Christie, which is certainly reason enough. And they have a perfectly good 'B' option in At Large #5. What I said over two weeks ago:

Conservatives who seriously think that White's endorsement damns Christie with faint praise have another option in AL5: Bob Ryan. Bob's a longtime friend of my family, and earned some renown as the Harris County grand jury foreman that in 2008 indicted Texas Supreme Court Justice David Medina on arson charges (that former DA Chuck Rosenthal refused to pursue). Ryan's about as principled a Republican as they come.

If Republicans are smart enough to figure this one out ... well, so is everybody else.