"Christ, Patrick, don't try to kiss me .."

"Can't you see we're in church, you moron?!"

Remaining cowardly (Perry as well as the state media)

This ad calls the governor out yet again -- and since it no longer contains that word that offends the Houston Chronicle's Jack Sweeney, it appears in that newspaper, and 40 others across the state.

“Rick Perry again proved what a coward he is by stiffing Texans and skipping out of Sunday’s gubernatorial debate. With a looming $21 billion budget deficit and the recent scandals showing Perry’s willingness to sell out our state government to campaign donors, it’s no wonder he’s afraid to face the people of Texas.

“Texans are tired of long-time career politicians like Rick Perry, who hides from voters in his $10,000-per-month taxpayer-funded rental mansion and refuses to be held accountable for his record.

It's a remarkable list of of accomplishment, isn't it?

There's yet another media poll out today ...

With election night now less than a month away, the new KHOU-Belo Texas Poll shows incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry is backed by half of all surveyed Texas voters; indicating he has built a commanding lead over Democratic challenger Bill White.

The poll shows Perry is supported by 50 percent of surveyed voters, compared to White's 36 percent.  Another 9 percent of voters were undecided, while Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass picked up 3 percent. 

Perry has led almost every poll conducted during this campaign, though not always by such a wide margin. But the governor breaking the 50 percent barrier in an independent statewide poll is a dramatic development in a campaign in which even White himself concedes he's the underdog.

The survey indicates Perry's support is not only wider than White's, it's also deeper.  Pollsters at Public Strategies Inc., the Austin-based firm that conducted the study,  suggested that Perry is ahead, not only because Republicans outnumber Democrats, but also because they're more likely to vote this November.  

That's an inevitability narrative. Too bad the poll is even more seriously flawed than last week's. Matt Angle at the Lone Star Project released this statement to the press earlier this afternoon:

The recent poll commissioned by Belo and reported by KHOU Channel 11 in Houston and WFAA Channel 8 in Dallas, however, appears to be distorted to the point that it should not be considered an accurate measure of the current political atmosphere in Texas. Specifically:

*The interview “screen” used to determine which individuals to include in the poll distorts the make up of the voter sample to the point that it cannot be an accurate reflection of the likely make-up of the 2010 General Election electorate in Texas. Typically, those surveyed in political polls are asked the question, “Are you likely to vote in the next general election?” The Belo poll asked a very different question. Its screen asked if the respondent voted in "most" or "all" school, local and primary elections.

*Screening to require that respondents vote in "most" or "all" local and school elections eliminates a large pool of voters who will in fact vote in a highly publicized General Election like the ongoing race for Governor in Texas and in many hotly contested local Legislative races. It is not unusual for turnout in local and school elections to be half or less than the turnout in a General Election.

*Further, voters in city elections and local school board elections are typically higher income, more likely to be homeowners, and more likely to support or “lean” towards supporting Republican candidates than a General Election electorate voter from the same area.

Bottom line:
The voter screen used in the Belo poll eliminates many likely Bill White voters before they are even asked a substantive political question. This poll shows the race favoring Rick Perry to a much higher degree than any other poll because it is unintentionally skewed to favor Perry. I am hopeful that Belo will cease reporting the poll as a fair measure of the current race for Governor in Texas or make clear to viewers and readers that the sample does not reflect the turnout normally expected in a contested General Election race.

Despite his having ignored every editorial board, and even the personal challenge from the most conservative daily in Texas,  the state's media conglomerates -- Hearst newspapers, Cox newspapers and TV stations, and now Belo (newspapers as well as TV stations in the top four Texas markets) continue to flog the Perry campaign line. Maybe it's an accident.

("It is inevitable" is a message to the opposition, of course: don't bother voting, you can't win, it's already over. Precisely designed to counter the surging Democratic wave I wrote about here ... and of which you're already beginning to see some national reporting.)

I certainly think Rick Perry is leading, but the race is much, much closer than the newspapers and TV people are saying, and it will all depend on who gets their voters to the polls. The deadline to register for this election was yesterday; early voting begins week after next on the 19th, and Election Day is four weeks from today.

What are you going to do?

Running on his physical appearance

There seems to be a meme running through the Internet's series of tubes today. Let's begin with Peggy Fikac:

No, really, women aren’t any more shallow than men.

When a poll by a group of newspapers including the San Antonio Express-News/Houston Chronicle showed that about 50 percent of women likely to vote favor GOP Gov. Rick Perry -- compared to 40 percent for Democratic challenger Bill White -- some called it a testament to Perry's looks.

Among them was the pro-Perry blog "Rick versus Kay" which posted this (tongue-in-cheek?) item: "If you want to know the real reason Rick will win women, it is the same reason Obama won so many women ..... or why Clinton won so many women ..... women don't want to have to look at Bill White's gollum-looking mug for four years whereas Rick is who they wish their husbands looked like at age 60."

I know someone might be laughing - and I'm not picking on Rick versus Kay. But let's face it, it's a bit annoying.

It might be annoying -- even pathetic, I submit -- if it were true, Peggy. And who are these "some"? But before we get to that let's note that Corrie MacLaggan at the Austin Statesman dutifully followed suit...

"Perry is doing extraordinarily well among women," said Mickey Blum, whose firm, Blum & Weprin Associates Inc., conducted a poll on behalf of the American-Statesman and other newspapers. She said that in years of polling in Texas, this might be the first time she's seen more women than men backing the Republican.

The poll found that 50 percent of women who are likely voters prefer Perry, while 40 percent prefer White. Overall, 46 percent of likely voters picked Perry and 39 percent liked White, the poll said.

Yes, this might indicate some trouble for the Democratic nominee if it were accurate. However, as Phillip Martin has demonstrated, it is a false assumption that women prefer Perry over White. The newspapers reference a single poll, the one they commissioned. The average of ten polls since May indicates White has a plurality of support with Texas women voters. One of those is the mighty Rassmublican poll from 9/22 -- two weeks ago -- showing a 51-39 split in favor of the Democrat.

But those facts didn't stop Fikac or MacLaggan, and they sure as hell didn't slow down Big Fat Jolly in his Big Fat Whine about last night's gubernatorial debate (I warned you he was going to be cranky). No excerpt; let's give him the traffic.

In BJ's defense, he attended the event. After a long day of activism, I was too worn out to do so and instead watched the online stream. Neil Aquino also made it and had a much more reasoned take, including this:

All in all, the debate served a useful public purpose. I urge folks to consider all the candidates.

Many Texas voters will likely follow that advice (whether they read Neil's blog or don't). Many of those Texans will be women.  And after ten too-long years, Texas will have a new governor on Tuesday evening, November 2. Thank goodness.

Update: Rachel gets mean.

The Weekly (Fall, finally) Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance welcomes the arrival of October as it brings you this week's blog roundup.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson posts about Rick Perry still in denial about the economy in Texas: Trying to make a living in the best state not to have a job in.

Off the Kuff examined the possibility of a Libertarian effect on the governor's race.

Bay Area Houston has an opinion on Renew Houston's new tax for drainage improvements.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme thinks that the Republican running for Harris County Clerk is an idiot.

News you won't hear on the Lamestream Media this week is that the conservative/TeaBag/GOP momentum peaked three weeks too soon, while the liberal/progressive/Democratic momentum is surging. You can wait a month and learn what happened on FOX ... or you can read all about it now at PDiddie's Brains and Eggs.

Rev. Manny at BlueBloggin takes a look at Tea Party candidates and sees more proof that they are running cover for the Corporate Agenda. When you think of classic business hustles, there is a long list but at the top are sweatshops, mercenaries, commodity profiteering and environmental assault. Enter the Tea Party.

It was another bad week for Sleazy Todd Staples. First off, there is now a video to go with his votes to expand eminent domain. Then he tried to defend some of his inaction with stupidity. Hank Gilbert, of course, slapped him down hard. Read it at McBlogger.

Libby Shaw does yeoman service to us all, gathering together a sort of bestiary of Far Out Right Wing Republicans running for office this cycle. Check out the videos. Word of warning: don't try to ingest anything while you are viewing. Either you will gag or you will burst out in laughter. Neither is good for your digestion. Check it out at Texas Kaos... The Scourge of the Republican Radical Right.

Neil at Texas Liberal noted a report that aliens are disarming nuclear missiles in the U.K. and the U.S. Neil supports this course of action by our alien visitors, and urges them to come to Texas to disable the means by which we execute people. The number of innocent people executed in the U.S. is a crime of galactic scale.

Sunday Funnies

Some of the real news

Conservative momentum peaked about two weeks too early. By contrast, progressive momentum is just beginning to rise. (But you won't hear anything about this on the Lamestream Media.)

The Republican National Committee's less-than-stellar fundraising this summer is forcing the party to dial back on some of its traditional get-out-the-vote efforts in the final weeks of the 2010 campaign.

As first reported by Roll Call's Jackie Kucinich, the RNC has decided to end the long-standing practice of sending congressional staffers into hotly contested districts to make contacts with voters and assist the GOP's midterm election efforts. A spokesman for the RNC says the program isn't "cost-effective" and the party plans to spend its money on other get-out-the-vote efforts, like mailing fliers to voters' homes.

The move seems counterintuitive on the eve of an election in which Republicans are strongly favored to make serious gains in the Senate and possibly regain control of the House. But with less than five weeks to go before Election Day, the RNC doesn't have the cash it had in previous years to spend on dollar-intensive get-out-the-vote efforts.

As of Aug. 30, the RNC had roughly $4.7 million cash in the bank for the final push, according to its latest Federal Election Commission report. By comparison, the Democratic National Committee reported more than $13 million.

RNC Chairman Michael Steele has been under fire for months for the party's lackluster fundraising and what some officials have described as frivolous spending. Steele is currently on a 48-state bus tour — which some GOP insiders have privately criticized as a waste of money.

Bob Schieffer's teevee program this morning was all about the Democrats' infighting, the projected loss of Congress, what went wrong with Obama's agenda ... basically the same thing you would hear if you were listening to Mike Wallace's wayward son on FOX.

This might have been news last month. Today it's already false.

Now if you will excuse me again, I'll get back to GOTV efforts and rallying the base.