Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Prognosis Chaos

Congratulations are due Mrs. Clinton for her primary popular vote wins in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island last night. When she most needed to do so, she kept alive her still-very-slim hopes of capturing the Democratic nomination.

(Did I just write "hope" in reference to Clinton?)

Obama could have -- should have -- put her away last night, and failed to do so. This was the second time he had that chance and missed -- the first was in New Hampshire.

So onward through the fog. To Pennsylvania, the state described as Pittsburgh on one end and Philadephia on the other with Appalachia in-between. Clinton and Obama will have their constuiencies plainly defined; the one who can poach from the other's base the most will win there.

Will the super-delegates flip start flip-flopping back to her now? I'm guessing none of the higher-ups are brave enough to make that intervention call to her now. "She's just getting warmed up", after all.

Brokered convention in Denver? I think it is certainly possible. Good for the Democratic Party? Maybe, maybe not. If the newly energized youthful supporters of Obama have a heavy dollop of cynicism dumped on them by the party elites taking away their votes, there could be a pretty serious backlash. As in disillusionment, resulting in defeat in November.

On the other hand, if they stay focused, succeed in take back their democracy, and put Obama in the White House, then we see that new age -- all that 'hope' and 'change' -- that has been talked about.

Mr. Irresistible Force, meet Mrs. Immovable Object.

Good times.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Today's agenda

6 a.m. : Prepare to open my polling location. As chair of the host precinct, mine and two others will be voting together today, Republicans and Democrats combined. Three precincts times two political parties means up to six precinct caucus conventions in one location this evening (though there will likely be only four; the Repubs aren't quite so numerous in my little West U enclave).

7 a.m. : Poll opens. Weather in Houston today is cool -- low 40s, forecast high of 60, with a brisk wind -- so voters need to be wrangled inside the school entry until it warms up later. Difficulty parking, long lines, possibly frayed tempers could result. Queueing and caucusing instructions will be announced repeatedly for arriving voters throughout the day.

Noon: Have a closing appointment this afternoon, so away I go.

3 p.m. : The Harris County Clerk is conducting the logic and accuracy test downtown, so in my responsibility as the elections observer for the county, I'll be in attendance.

4 p.m. or so : Tabulation of early votes begins at the CCO. This is the fun part. I will observe as the seals are opened on the packets for each EV location, the electronic cards fed into and read by the processor and ultimately totaled. These are the first results that get reported on the county's website, which appear shortly after 7 p.m. Since I will be returning to my polling place, none of these results will be revealed to me prior to my departure. The standard protocol is to run the total, at which point everyone in the room -- the county clerk's election staff, observers, IT personnel and security -- is on "radio silence"; no cellphones or laptops on, no communication with the outside world. For about two hours a handful of people know what everyone else wants to know, but nobody gets to until 7 p.m. when the polls close.

5 p.m. : Back to my precinct to conclude the election. My election judges are the absolute best.

7 p.m. : Polls close, precinct conventions to begin at 7:15 or when the last person in line has voted. I've made preparations to conduct my precinct convention (aka caucus), but if I don't get elected permanent chair I won't be disappointed.

7:15 p.m. or later
: Caucuses begin. We'll see what mayhem or mischief may be in store as the presidential campaigns jockey for delegates to the Senate District convention on March 29.

9 or 10 p.m. or later
: Caucuses are concluded, so I am returning downtown for more central counting office observance, into the wee hours of the morning or until I can't stand the fun any longer.

No posting until I recover on Wednesday.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Howard Dean's redemption

The Nation:

The race for the Democratic nomination is a window into how the candidates view the future of the party, which is being shaped in large part by Dean's efforts. Are Clinton and Obama similarly committed to Dean's fifty-state strategy? How much faith would each, as the Democratic nominee, put in the party's grassroots? In the Internet era, the party is less about elder statesmen sitting in Washington than millions of people across the country organizing locally around issues and candidates. Dean and Obama have understood how the party is changing--and have embraced it. Clinton, thus far, has not. ...

Tensions have cooled since then, and both Clintons have voiced their support for Dean's fifty-state strategy. Yet in a larger sense, Hillary's candidacy represents the polar opposite of what Dean built as a candidate and party chair: her campaign is dominated by an inner circle of top strategists, with little room for grassroots input; it hasn't adapted well to new Internet tools like Facebook and MySpace; it tends to raise big contributions from a small group of high rollers rather than from large numbers of small donors; and it is less inclined to expand the base of the party.

A single example of the old-school/new-school made plain to this activist:

While I have received a robocall on my home phone from Texans for Hillary every single night for the past week, communication from the Obama campaign during the same period has consisted of two text messages to my cellphone, each inviting me to tonight's rally at the George R. Brown.

If you were wondering about that 'change' meme, this might be evidence of it. Oh, and this too:

In his sprint across the country before Super Tuesday, Obama wisely hit places where the party had barely existed years before. "They told me there weren't any Democrats in Idaho," Obama told a raucous crowd of 14,000 in Boise. "I didn't believe them." On Super Tuesday Obama won fifteen of Idaho's eighteen delegates and virtually swept the Midwest and Mountain West.

Fourteen thousand. In Boise.

I have been railing about minimalist strategies for years now. Writing off sections of the country -- not just states but entire regions -- is what nearly bankrupted the Democratic Party in the Nineties. And it was destroyed here in the Deep-In-The Hearta.

Yes, we had a Democrat in the White House, but he was under seige from an emboldened Republican majority in Congress. Democrats were decimated legislatively, not just in Washington but in statehouses coast to coast. While the rest of the country reversed the tide in 2006, we here in Texas of course are only just now emerging from the darkness.

This most clearly signifies my inability to support the Clintons' return to power. The twenty-state strategy, focusing a on a few select targeted races, using Texas only as an ATM ...

... the wisdom of this philosophy tricking down to the Texas Democratic Party, where losing every statewide office since 1994 and ekeing out a half-dozen wins in the statehouse in 2006 (while the rest of the nation turned blue) is defined as as 'victory' ...

But I digress.

Tradition dictates that whoever wins the White House will install his or her own regime in the DNC. Dean says that if a Democrat wins in November, he does not want to hang around the building past 2009. Yet few in the party believe it's possible, or preferable, to go back to targeting a dozen swing states every two or four years. "You cannot lurch from one election to the next with no game plan," Dean says. "I do believe the Democratic President is going to want a permanent political operation, and I think we're going to leave a very strong one here." Dean says the state party chairs have already persuaded Obama and Clinton to commit to funding the fifty-state strategy, which at a cost of $4 million to $5 million a year is a tiny fraction of the $300 million budgeted by the DNC for '08. "The one thing they should not get rid of is the fifty-state strategy," says Democratic strategist Donna Brazile. "We need to do more, not less."

Dean had the vision, but others will get or share the credit. It took an Obama to realize the potential of the Internet and grassroots organizing to transform politics. And it will take the commitment of future DNC chairs to the fifty-state strategy to continue building the party from the ground up. "You know the expression, to be a prophet without honor in your own land," says Steve Grossman, Dean's former campaign chair. "That's Howard Dean."


Kos adds:

... We saw the party elite (dominated by the Clintonistas) in DC hoarding their power, sure, but we also saw that the masses outside the Beltway were far bigger, and collectively wielded far more power than the Ickes and the Podestas. Sure, they could raise a buttload of money and get their new organizations funded (and there's some good ones in that mix, like the Center for American Progress and MediaMatters), but their efforts to dominate and control the party machinery were doomed from the start. The people-powered movement would swamp them out. So Dean became our surrogate and we propelled him to a dramatic victory as chair of the party. Sure, establishment Dems wailed and threatened and tried unsuccessfully to find an establishment-approved alternative to Dean. ...

Those of us outside that DC cesspool knew better and we have been obviously proven right in the subsequent years. It's amazing how responsive the nation gets when you reorient your efforts beyond a few special states and decide that the whole country -- and the grassroots in each state -- actually matters.

But what's surprising to me is that in this day and age, the Clinton people are still so wedded to the early 90s that they continue to misread the political landscape -- a mistake the Obama camp has exploited to full advantage.


Precisely. And also this, from Booman:


Maybe Hillary Clinton's personality blinded people. Maybe her gender was weighed too heavily. Maybe they took her voting record and policy positions at face value. Maybe they just craved partisanship. Maybe they were just afraid to stand up to the 'inevitable' candidate. But, for me, this has always been a contest between the DLC and the netroots/grassroots, with Obama and Edwards on one side and Clinton on the other.

We netrootsers have been going into battle every day for five-six years without the Clinonistas at our side. Half the time, and on the most critical issues, they have been standing on the opposing sidelines or actively undercutting our positions. How could any blogger/activist have ever seen the Clinton campaign as anything other than the mortal enemy of the movement, I don't know.


I have blogger friends (hopefully still friends) whose support for Mrs. Clinton remains steadfast to this moment. It's easy to disagree over candidates in politics, even -- sometimes especially -- those within your chosen party. Obama is going to have to mend fences after Tuesday, irrespective of the outcome in the headlines. Even if he does not 'win' Texas and Ohio, he will almost certainly pad his delegate lead, continue to erode Mrs. Clinton's last remaining base of support -- the superdelegates -- and eventually be conceded the nomination. If not on Wednesday, then shortly thereafter. Much sooner than later, I would hope.

And perhaps the Texas Democratic Party will ripen for change as well, with a groundswell of millions of new voters, an energized base of activists and supporters, and a mandate for change. Pesky word, that.

All thanks to Barack Obama's execution of Howard Dean's strategy.

Dean has always spoken for me.

The Weekly Wrangle

It's the Day Before Primary, and that means it is time for another Texas Progressive Alliance Blog Round-Up. This week's collection is compiled by Vince from Capitol Annex.

This election cycle is all about the change America so desperately needs. TXsharon at Bluedaze implores Texans not to settle for more of the same.

Many wonderful things happened at McBlogger this week, from discovery of a scrumptious new foodstuff, to Hillary's decision to co-sponsor a bill turning back the privatization of our military. And they took a look at Cornyn's pathetic attempt to call out his better, Lt.Col. Rick Noriega.

Who'sPlayin has photos and man-on-the-street interviews from the Barack Obama rally in Fort Worth on Thursday, and his 7-year-old son wonders whether Democrats will change the Pledge of Allegiance.

Off the Kuff has been closely following the early voting turnout data in Harris County and statewide. Read all about R versus D ballots in state rep districts, why some Republicans are voting for Obama, projecting record statewide turnout, and what it all means for November.

Gary at Easter Lemming Liberal News says for the last time with feeling: Viva Obama! Vote and caucus at your precinct Tuesday. Caucus conventions start 15 minutes after voting at the precinct closes.

Vince at Capitol Annex notes that there is some right-wing cash coming into some unexpected Democratic campaigns, and notes that Obama has a push card in Texas highlighting faith issues.

Eye On Williamson has been chronicling the turnout gone wild in Williamson County. Dembones wrapped up the early voting with a final early voting report, and is Fired Up, Ready To Go for the primary. WCNews has a look at the HD-52 8 days out ethics filings leading up to Tuesday's primary election.

Refininsh69 from Doing My Part For The Left thinks it is time that supporters of both Obama and Hillary GROW UP! Doing My Part For The Left endorses Glen Maxey for Travis County Assessor-Collector. And while listening to both campaigns and watching commercials and interviews, Refinish69 realizes it is 3AM and Hillary Seems Desperate.

The Texas Cloverleaf jumps into the final weekend of primary action, meeting up with Forest Whitaker, Max Kennedy, and Ron Kirk in Dallas at Obama HQ. After the star-studded event, attack ads hit the mailboxes in Texas. Find out what half-truths are being spread by the Clinton attack machine before Election Day concludes a raucous primary season.

Jaye at Winding Road asks Hillary Clinton to not quit, and take it to the convention.

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Sunday Funnies (Republicans make me Ralph edition)





171,000 Democratic primary early voters in Harris County

Shatters modern-day records. The Harris County clerk, Beverly Kaufman, called the turnout "unprecedented". If EV follows recent trends, then the nation's third-largest county will have over half a million Democrats voting in the primary. That's twice as many as I originally predicted, and that portends a statewide tally of somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million Texans voting Democratic in 2008. A million more Democrats than I thought there would be.

That is a deep, dark blue azure wave sweeping across this red-ass county, and it's going to scuttle a lot of Republicans as it tears across the prairie. We're watching Texas return to its Democratic roots.

But are they all voting all the way down the ballot? Are there a bunch of Republicans making mischief? Or is it independents and ex-Republicans expressing their outrage of the past seven years at the Democratic ballot box? Is it Obama-mania, or just a hotly contested presidential race for the first time in my voting lifetime bearing fruit? Kuffner has several answers, but we'll mostly have to wait for next Wednesday, and a few days afterward, to know for sure.

I'll be making final preparations to participate -- possibly conduct -- my precinct's caucus convention, so expect little here until after Election Day.

Sunday Funnies (Say Good Night, Mrs. Clinton)